NFL 2018 Season Thread

[molson]

Originally Posted by weegeebored

Let me rephrase -- officials better than the type that missed a blatant PI call that very likely changed the outcome of a playoff game. If the NFL can't find ones better than those blind mice then adding more types of challenges isn't going to help matters one iota. Sure the job is hard but that's what they chose to do and what they get paid for. Do it right or do something else. I had nothing invested in the Saints game so I didn't care who won, but the length, the number of stoppages, and the number of discussions by officials in an NFL game is bordering on ridiculous. Four-hour games anyone? With still only 11 minutes of actual action? Time out for yet another commercial break...

You didn't really answer the question though. Where are the good refs (if we're working with this assumption that there are humans out there that can make all these calls in real time at the NFL speed)? Why aren't they reffing now? What does "do it right" mean and where the humans that can do that if they're not currently working as football referees? And how does the NFL identify those people if they're in some other non-referee line of work?

There is a massive shortage of referees at the high school level right now. Largely because it's a thankless job that only sets one up for verbal abuse and violent threats (and sometimes worse). That's going to trickle up and impact the qualify of officiating in all sports at all levels. But we cling to this myth that the ones actually doing this are just all objectively terrible, but that there are these mythical hypothetical refs out there can do this job "right". But where are they? How do leagues find these mythical beings? Why has no league ever, in any sport, been able to find them?

[bhlloy]

I was definitely one of the people the most vocal after the screwup in the NFC championship game but having some time to consider it, I really hate the rule change as it stands. For one, it’s ridiculous that they can review a judgement call but not something procedural like a false start, which is cut and dried and got a referee actually fired last season. Maybe that’s not as high a profile an issue but it can still cost a team a game. Then you get into the penalties that can be just as game impacting but aren’t covered like helmet to helmet and roughing the passer. Those will definitely cost teams games this upcoming season. So we are officially in the slippery slope at this point and it’s just a matter of time before there’s a high profile screwup and we get some more rules added. I hate the concept that the league does nothing until forced to and then bows to public pressure on something like this. Maybe it was inevitable that this was the slippery slope we were always on since day 1 of replay, but it’s clear that the new rule massively increases the rate of decline.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by weegeebored

Four-hour games anyone? With still only 11 minutes of actual action? Time out for yet another commercial break...

Just limit the number of substitutions and require every player to stay on the field for at least three plays in a row.

I mean, hey, baseball thinks that's magic soooooo ....

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Just limit the number of substitutions and require every player to stay on the field for at least three plays in a row.

I mean, hey, baseball thinks that's magic soooooo ....

That's almost genius.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

This was a great example from the Super Bowl the competition committee used
Michael Giardi on Twitter: "The competition committee said this play should have been interference and the #Rams would have gotten the ball on the 1-yard line. I pointed this out that night (some of you were irritated). It was subtle but by the letter of the law...… https://t.co/lF1SCkzDy5"

If that's going to fall into the reviewed & overturned category they've basically eliminated handfighting on deep routes. More offense, yay!

When that play happened, I was looking for the PI call. When I saw the replay, I understood why they did not throw the flag (still wanted one), and yes Cooks still should have made the catch.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I was definitely one of the people the most vocal after the screwup in the NFC championship game but having some time to consider it, I really hate the rule change as it stands. For one, it’s ridiculous that they can review a judgement call but not something procedural like a false start, which is cut and dried and got a referee actually fired last season. Maybe that’s not as high a profile an issue but it can still cost a team a game. Then you get into the penalties that can be just as game impacting but aren’t covered like helmet to helmet and roughing the passer. Those will definitely cost teams games this upcoming season. So we are officially in the slippery slope at this point and it’s just a matter of time before there’s a high profile screwup and we get some more rules added. I hate the concept that the league does nothing until forced to and then bows to public pressure on something like this. Maybe it was inevitable that this was the slippery slope we were always on since day 1 of replay, but it’s clear that the new rule massively increases the rate of decline.

This a million times over. It's a stupid over reaction that is going to make the game worse. Why is PI the only penalty worth looking at as game deciding? Along with your examples I go back to the Goff facemask penalty not called. Why can't McVay throw a challenge flag there and get a first and goal? It's not even a judgement call, it happened.


What happens if the Saints return to the NFC championship game and lose due to this new rule? Does their ownership and Payton say "this is great because we got the right outcome"? Or do they say "how can they look at that repay and come up with PI, it was just normal contact"?

[weegeebored]

Originally Posted by molson

You didn't really answer the question though. Where are the good refs (if we're working with this assumption that there are humans out there that can make all these calls in real time at the NFL speed)? Why aren't they reffing now? What does "do it right" mean and where the humans that can do that if they're not currently working as football referees? And how does the NFL identify those people if they're in some other non-referee line of work?

There is a massive shortage of referees at the high school level right now. Largely because it's a thankless job that only sets one up for verbal abuse and violent threats (and sometimes worse). That's going to trickle up and impact the qualify of officiating in all sports at all levels. But we cling to this myth that the ones actually doing this are just all objectively terrible, but that there are these mythical hypothetical refs out there can do this job "right". But where are they? How do leagues find these mythical beings? Why has no league ever, in any sport, been able to find them?

Assuming that you are correct then why should the NFL magnify the lack-of-quality issue by introducing more rules and more replays that exacerbate the perceived incompetence of the officials? Something has to give. Otherwise, the way things are heading in the NFL, we might as well watch guys playing in Madden leagues and call that football.

[molson]

Originally Posted by weegeebored

Assuming that you are correct then why should the NFL magnify the lack-of-quality issue by introducing more rules and more replays that exacerbate the perceived incompetence of the officials? Something has to give. Otherwise, the way things are heading in the NFL, we might as well watch guys playing in Madden leagues and call that football.

I'm the last football fan in the world who finds replay to be a nuisance. I'm not morally offended when a ref misses a call, it's part of the game to me, like a millionaire wide receiver dropping a pass. Winning a game with some kind of zone of comfort is critical to try to avoid one the dozens of random ways a game played by humans can swing against you for reasons unrelated to the performance of the players - freak injuries, illness, weird weather, a bad hop, bad ref call, etc.

The Saints losing a game they would have won if the correct call was made isn't a crime to me, it's just one of those crazy events that makes the story of an NFL football season so wacky and memorable.

[Warhammer]

I think part of the problem we have, we fail to remember the refs and players on the field are human. They make mistakes. We wind up justifying whatever we want based upon the fact we expect everything to be perfect.

[QuikSand]

It's sounding like John Rosen is going to be gotten for a 2nd round pick. Where is Miami in this? Why aren't they at least in that conversation?

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

It's sounding like John Rosen is going to be gotten for a 2nd round pick. Where is Miami in this? Why aren't they at least in that conversation?

Ponderous.

[molson]

I'd like to see the Patriots get in on that. Apparently they're interested.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by molson

I'd like to see the Patriots get in on that. Apparently they're interested.

"Coach Belichick, what's your plan for the team post-Brady?"

BELICHICK: "Wait around for a while. Then figure that a poorly-run team will give up a top-ten talent for a second round pick. Then just jump on that shit. I'll probably also get them to throw in a 6th round pick as part of the deal and use it to draft some rando from Rutgers that we'll turn into a Pro Bowl tight end, just for kicks and giggles. You know, pretty basic stuff."

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

When that play happened, I was looking for the PI call. When I saw the replay, I understood why they did not throw the flag (still wanted one), and yes Cooks still should have made the catch.

Yes, it was a play I wouldn't have complained if PI was called, don't think Rams fans can complain when it wasn't. But if that goes to replay & becomes 1st & goal I'd be pretty upset.

And I think Cooks could've/should've/would've made the catch through Gilmore's handfighting, but it was Harmon's clean hit that prevented him from doing so, so it's tough to say Cooks should have had it imo.

Originally Posted by molson

I'd like to see the Patriots get in on that. Apparently they're interested.

I've heard it both ways... I don't think they love Rosen's attitude that football isn't everything, but at a certain point the draft pick compensation is light enough it's worth a shot. I do think they'd be more likely to wait until the draft and trade for him day 2 (or 3, even if it's for a 2019 pick), but we'll see if the Cardinals lower the price before then. Unless they can convince people they aren't drafting Murray #1 a 2nd seems high.

[BishopMVP]

Btw an underrated part is that the Patriots really like having Brian Hoyer as the backup QB (and don't carry 3 QB's unless that QB is Brady or Brady is suspended for 4 games). I'm not sure if they would be able to pay him the same amount to be a "QB coach" & still run the scout team. He also probably helped their super bowl defensive game plan a lot

Hoyer began his career in New England, but he got his first shot as a starter in Cleveland. In 2014, his second year there, he started 11 games for coordinator Kyle Shanahan, then played for Shanahan again in San Francisco in ’17. Rams coach Sean McVay coached tight ends for Mike and Kyle Shanahan in Washington from 2010-13, which led Hoyer to believe he’d have some institutional knowledge of McVay’s offense.

Before the Super Bowl, he watched an episode of Peyton Manning’s Detail series on ESPN-Plus on Goff, and it hit him right away—the offense is the same. Looking at the Rams tape confirmed it. … Then, Hoyer went back to Amazon’s All or Nothing series on the Rams; it was about the 2016 season but had footage of OTAs from McVay’s first spring there. Hoyer recognized the language.

Having played in the McVay/Shanahan system, Hoyer knew all the dirty little secrets of the offense, including its fatal flaw…

“Having played in that offense, they don’t have an answer for all-out pressure,” Hoyer says. “Their answer is for the quarterback to make a play.”

Hoyer’s contribution did not end there. While acting as the scout-team QB, he gave the New England secondary a tip regarding those all-out pressures that would lead directly to Gilmore’s interception.

“We were all up there [showing an all-out blitz]the way everyone’s been seeing us, moving around,” Devin [McCourty] says. “And Hoyer said, ‘If I’m the quarterback, I’m just going to catch the ball and throw it deep—all of you are close, so I’m throwing it deep.’ Sure enough, that week, we started seeing it more. Kansas City did it. Green Bay hit us with it.”

The adjustment, as Jason explained it, was for those in coverage, at the snap, to “play off and read the quarterback.”

Super Bowl LIII analysis with Devin and Jason McCourty | SI.com

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

It's sounding like John Rosen is going to be gotten for a 2nd round pick. Where is Miami in this? Why aren't they at least in that conversation?

I hope the Patriots do trade for that John Rosen guy. Seriously if the Patriots are interested in him to be the replacement for Brady, then given their history you keep Rosen. And you don't trade him for anything but a 1st rounder. Rather they trade him to the Chargers as they face them once every four years.



I really want to see what they have in Rosen with a decent o-line to protect him and more WR to throw to than just Fitz. Murray for all the hype is an unknown and could backfire spectacularly for the Cards. Too risky to go with him I think.


NFL trade rumors: Patriots reportedly one of three teams interested in acquiring Josh Rosen - CBSSports.com

[stevew]

Steelers should be in on Rosen too

[EagleFan]

Eagles trade for Howard from the Bears. Don't know the details yet.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by stevew

Steelers should be in on Rosen too

But bringing in a future QB for draft picks upsets Ben, and they've shown that apparently their organizational directive is not upsetting Ben.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

But bringing in a future QB for draft picks upsets Ben, and they've shown that apparently their organizational directive is not upsetting Ben.

I think there is another team that is also run that way...

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Eagles trade for Howard from the Bears. Don't know the details yet.

ESPN says a 2020 6th round that could upgrade to a 5th round

edit: Bears website says the same

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I think there is another team that is also run that way...

Shurg. Kraft may or may not have said that it wasn't an option to pick Garoppolo over Brady, but there was no way to keep both under the cap, Brady has clearly been the better QB in the 18 months since, and Brady didn't run his mouth complaining about the team picking any of the 5 QB's they've picked 3rd round or higher since he's been starting. Ben Roethlisberger "surprised" Steelers drafted QB Mason Rudolph

(Btw that trip down memory lane reminded me that the Patriots drafted Kliff Kingsbury. I don't remember if he ever really practiced with them - he spent one year on IR with an "arm injury" - but if he's any good I'll 100% count him as part of Belichick's coaching tree!)

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

ESPN says a 2020 6th round that could upgrade to a 5th round

edit: Bears website says the same

This is where I don't understand the NFL trade market. I understand you'd prefer to draft the next Jordan Howard, but he's not worth more than that for 1 year at $2m? From the Bears side, I understand he's not a perfect fit for Matt Nagy, but as 'versatile' as Cordarrelle Patterson theoretically is, he's not actually good at any of those things (except kick returns.) Was there any rush to get this done now for a late 6th/5th instead of waiting to see what happens during the draft?

[thesloppy]

I never understand trade prices regarding draft picks. Occasionally they make sense to me, but way more often than not they are either far higher or (usually) far lower than expected.

Also whenever they reveal the details of these trades, I'm surprised at how often it apparently comes down to two teams talking by some degree of luck or timing, and usually neither of those teams give any indication that they floated the resultant terms around the league. You'd think some team would find a way to capitalize on such a seemingly chaotic trade market.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I think there is another team that is also run that way...

I see a huge difference in Big Ben and Tom Brady. Brady's teammates seem to love him while Ben was able to make two of the leagues superstars not even want to be on his team. As much as a PITA Randy Moss was in this league he loved being on the Pats. It seemed last year Gronk was willing to retire over playing with anyone other than Tom Brady and the Pats. If Brady gets preferred treatment at least he doesnt use it to alienate his teammates.

Tom Brady has never seemed to concerned with his replacement. I think he always knew that he was the best option.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

I never understand trade prices regarding draft picks. Occasionally they make sense to me, but way more often than not they are either far higher or (usually) far lower than expected.

Also whenever they reveal the details of these trades, I'm surprised at how often it apparently comes down to two teams talking by some degree of luck or timing, and usually neither of those teams give any indication that they floated the resultant terms around the league. You'd think some team would find a way to capitalize on such a seemingly chaotic trade market.

Seems like trading 3-4 picks and just using the comp system for getting picks back would be a value prop. Especially since u never have to tender a guy like Howard and should get at worst a 6th round comp

[stevew]

Whomever gets rosen is getting him at around 1.5-2m a year for salary for 3 years and gets that 5th year option. A 2nd is a steal.

[molson]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Brady didn't run his mouth complaining about the team picking any of the 5 QB's they've picked 3rd round or higher since he's been starting.

I remember people being excited about Ryan Mallett and even Kevin O'Connell, both drafted in the 3rd round in Brady's prime.

Rosen for a 2nd (or even a 2nd and one or more of their million later-round picks) seems like such a worthy shot to take in comparison - but I guess I don't understand the value of draft picks either.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Stories coming out that the 49ers were in on the OBJ talks, but weren't willing to give up #2 overall and the two teams couldn't come to terms with a trade down from 2 to 6.

It's hard to swallow the known quantity that is OBJ not being worth an as of yet unknown draft pick despite the baggage that may come with him.

[stevew]

The double standard on picks is crazy. If a team trades a 5th rounder for a reasonably productive player the receiver of the pick can claim a tight market. Bur teams cut 5th round picks all the time. So are picks valuable or not. A lot of this is just scouts and personnel guys jacking each other off trying to act smart, right?

[thesloppy]

That report on the Packers is hot news today, and it's a pretty fascinating read:

What Happened in Green Bay | Bleacher Report | Latest News, Videos and Highlights

[bhlloy]

The new Jets jerseys are terribad. Basically a rejected set of Eagles color rush jerseys. No idea what they were thinking, but in general have hated 90% of the “modern” uniforms that teams are coming up with today.

[stevew]

Yeah was just about to post they look like a surplus AAF design. Look like something a TV show would run out there as a fake jersey on a fake rapper.

[muns]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

That report on the Packers is hot news today, and it's a pretty fascinating read:

What Happened in Green Bay | Bleacher Report | Latest News, Videos and Highlights

Awesome read. Thanks for sharing

[albionmoonlight]

Josh Rosen.

I didn't watched any Cards football last year. But you have a team that lacked talent last year and that fired its coach. And you have a new coach whose style is perfect for the likely #1 overall pick QB coming out in the draft.

So the Cards have a good reason (new coach wants to draft new QB that fits his system) to shop Josh Rosen even if they think he has some talent. And there is some good reasons to think (lack of talent and coaching around him) that last season does not give us a great window into his talent one way or the other. And he looked good enough in college that he was talked about as the #1 overall pick and still went top 10.

And there's a chance to get him for 3 years on a rookie salary and an option for a 5th year extension that would still be undermarket if he's a good or better QB.

I am not sure why the Cards don't have 25 or so teams fighting to offer the equivalent of a mid-first round pick for the guy. I mean, yeah, a lot of teams are "set" at QB. But a lot of that is very old vets or not-quite-proven guys.

I just don't get it.

[bhlloy]

I guess it’s because the NFL massively overreacts to character issues at the QB position, real or perceived. If I had to guess he will probably end up with the Pats for a third and they will get him some easy mop up time, make him look good and then flip him in a couple years for a mid first when mecha-Brady signs another 4 year deal.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Josh Rosen.

I didn't watched any Cards football last year. But you have a team that lacked talent last year and that fired its coach. And you have a new coach whose style is perfect for the likely #1 overall pick QB coming out in the draft.

So the Cards have a good reason (new coach wants to draft new QB that fits his system) to shop Josh Rosen even if they think he has some talent. And there is some good reasons to think (lack of talent and coaching around him) that last season does not give us a great window into his talent one way or the other. And he looked good enough in college that he was talked about as the #1 overall pick and still went top 10.

And there's a chance to get him for 3 years on a rookie salary and an option for a 5th year extension that would still be undermarket if he's a good or better QB.

I am not sure why the Cards don't have 25 or so teams fighting to offer the equivalent of a mid-first round pick for the guy. I mean, yeah, a lot of teams are "set" at QB. But a lot of that is very old vets or not-quite-proven guys.

I just don't get it.

I think the Cards are crazy if they don't get a 1st rounder back if they trade Rosen basically for the reasons you mentioned. Still don't want them to trade him, but especially if there at least three teams bidding for them, you don't trade him for a third rounder which sounds like some GM that wants him hopes he goes for, you go big and get another 1st round pick.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Josh Rosen.

I didn't watched any Cards football last year. But you have a team that lacked talent last year and that fired its coach. And you have a new coach whose style is perfect for the likely #1 overall pick QB coming out in the draft.

So the Cards have a good reason (new coach wants to draft new QB that fits his system) to shop Josh Rosen even if they think he has some talent. And there is some good reasons to think (lack of talent and coaching around him) that last season does not give us a great window into his talent one way or the other. And he looked good enough in college that he was talked about as the #1 overall pick and still went top 10.

And there's a chance to get him for 3 years on a rookie salary and an option for a 5th year extension that would still be undermarket if he's a good or better QB.

I am not sure why the Cards don't have 25 or so teams fighting to offer the equivalent of a mid-first round pick for the guy. I mean, yeah, a lot of teams are "set" at QB. But a lot of that is very old vets or not-quite-proven guys.

I just don't get it.

Many of those teams wouldn't have picked him 10th overall (and if they have an old vet QB they have a win now window), there were other reasons to blame but he was still very bad on the field (Baker Mayfield didn't exactly have an ideal support system either and he made it work), it's basically impossible for a team to give practice reps to two developing QB's so either he's traded or they're hurting Murray's development, and you think 25 teams should be offering the equivalent of a 1st?

I don't get why the Dolphins aren't doing it, but I'd be skeptical if the Patriots traded #32 for him, let alone #32 + other picks.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Many of those teams wouldn't have picked him 10th overall (and if they have an old vet QB they have a win now window), there were other reasons to blame but he was still very bad on the field (Baker Mayfield didn't exactly have an ideal support system either and he made it work), it's basically impossible for a team to give practice reps to two developing QB's so either he's traded or they're hurting Murray's development, and you think 25 teams should be offering the equivalent of a 1st?

I don't get why the Dolphins aren't doing it, but I'd be skeptical if the Patriots traded #32 for him, let alone #32 + other picks.

I see your point, but I just don't agree. His contract is so good (with AZ having to eat the bonus) that the Pats can trade for him. He's an affordable backup for 1 or 2 years for Brady. The Pats can watch him for those years to see if he's the answer (not with starter reps, but not with nothing either). Then they get him for a year or two as a starter on that salary (with the 5th year option out there still).

Unless my evaluators are 100% in the "HE SUCKS. HE NEVER SHOULD HAVE BEEN DRAFTED. WE'VE NEVER LIKED THIS GUY." camp, I'd roll those dice and take that chance 10 times out of 10 if I were the Pats.

[CU Tiger]

Oh its going to be fun to watch Arizona go up in flames...

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I see your point, but I just don't agree. His contract is so good (with AZ having to eat the bonus) that the Pats can trade for him. He's an affordable backup for 1 or 2 years for Brady. The Pats can watch him for those years to see if he's the answer (not with starter reps, but not with nothing either). Then they get him for a year or two as a starter on that salary (with the 5th year option out there still).

Unless my evaluators are 100% in the "HE SUCKS. HE NEVER SHOULD HAVE BEEN DRAFTED. WE'VE NEVER LIKED THIS GUY." camp, I'd roll those dice and take that chance 10 times out of 10 if I were the Pats.

Rosen wasn't bad last year, he was atrocious - QUARTERBACKS 2018 | Football Outsiders . There is a recent success story who had worse 1st year stats (Jared Goff), but I doubt many more would even approach that level of sucking. Plus his current team has apparently decided that they'd rather have an unproven QB with one year of college starting experience over the combo of Rosen & Nick Bosa (or other elite looking edge rusher if you'd prefer). Sure there's still a point I think he's worth taking the chance on, but the idea that his value is still a mid-1st rounder is crazy to me.

I think if Daniel Jones or Will Grier fall to the late 2nd/early 3rd it's a legitimate debate whether you'd want them or Rosen, and there's no way I'd draft either of them in the middle of the 1st (even with the extra year of cheap control vs Rosen.)

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

Oh its going to be fun to watch Arizona go up in flames...

Well we were 3-13 last season, so I think we were at that point when they fired the head coach after that season.

[bhlloy]

AB really is showing himself to be an immature, insecure little child isn't he?

[stevew]

Yeah. That SI article from the beginning of the season was straight on. He's a bitch and a horrible person

[molson]

The OT rules the XFL are testing out sound kind of awesome to me, though I don't think they'd fly in the NFL.

There will be 44 players on the field at once - an offense and defense on both ends of the field. The teams take turns trying to score from the 2, or the 5 (that part's not clear yet), and then best out of 5 wins. A team get earn a bonus point with a turnover.

They're also going to have three tier options for an extra point - a team can go for 1, 2, or 3 depending on how far out it's willing to attempt the try from.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by molson

They're also going to have three tier options for an extra point - a team can go for 1, 2, or 3 depending on how far out it's willing to attempt the try from.

I'd actually like to see how this would play out if they eliminated field goals as well. It would create an interesting dynamic.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I'd actually like to see how this would play out if they eliminated field goals as well. It would create an interesting dynamic.

There's also less need for onside kicks if 9-points is still potentially a 1-possession game, and 18-points a 2-possession game.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Well we were 3-13 last season, so I think we were at that point when they fired the head coach after that season.

I think Kingsbury is so far over his head...I wouldnt be surprised if he doesnt make the end of season 1.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

I think Kingsbury is so far over his head...I wouldnt be surprised if he doesnt make the end of season 1.

You mean looking vaguely like Sean McVay doesn't make him Sean McVay?

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

You mean looking vaguely like Sean McVay doesn't make him Sean McVay?

I mean he failed at Texas Tech..surely its easier in the NFL.