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Old 03-22-2022, 09:20 AM   #601
NobodyHere
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I think a 3rd round pick is a bit of a stretch unless you think Baker is going to sign a huge contract.

ETA:

Maybe not huge but it looks like someone will have to pay him at minimum $15 million per year in order for the Browns to get a 3rd round pick. Of course this assume that the Browns don't sign anyone that would cancel the pick.
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Old 03-22-2022, 10:11 AM   #602
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Rumors on Terron Armstead and the Dolphins continue to swirl... I suspect it happens, and I suspect the 'Phins will "overpay" but I don't see what options they have really left themselves. If he can somehow stay healthy he'd be exactly what they need... but that definitely challenges what we all feel about injury proneness.
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Old 03-22-2022, 11:26 AM   #603
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I'm rooting for 8-game Watson suspension, Baker stays and goes 8-0, and then he's benched. Fans revolt.
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Old 03-22-2022, 11:42 AM   #604
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WR Skyy Moore is just rocketing up the draft board. He was a mock draft reach in round 3 a couple weeks ago. I'd make an even money bet today that he goes in the first round.
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Old 03-22-2022, 11:49 AM   #605
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Rumors on Terron Armstead and the Dolphins continue to swirl... I suspect it happens, and I suspect the 'Phins will "overpay" but I don't see what options they have really left themselves. If he can somehow stay healthy he'd be exactly what they need... but that definitely challenges what we all feel about injury proneness.

I also don't know how much this matters, but Armstead is also a super high-quality dude. Very much a locker room leader and one of the guys that the coaches always mention when talking about the team's culture.

The Dolphins are the team that makes the most sense for him. And, yeah, the story about him is 100% about injury. When healthy, he's an all-pro talent at a vital position. But "when healthy" is doing a lot of work in that sentence.

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Old 03-22-2022, 12:12 PM   #606
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I feel kind of bad for Baker in this situation. Granted he is not great and apparently other front offices don't hold him in real high regard based on the comments we are seeing, but he is a former #1 pick that seemed to be improving over time and, just last season, led the Browns to their first playoff appearance since 2002 and first playoff win since 1994 (we are talking about the Vinny Testaverde/Ernest Byner/Pepper Johnson Browns here!). Last season, they started 3-1 and he tried to tough it out playing with a torn labrum and fractured humerus bone after week 2 (and apparently re-injured it again later in the season). Normally, you'd think the homegrown, marketable star QB that led the team to its first playoff win in 25-years AND guts it out through an injury would be held in a little higher regard.
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Old 03-22-2022, 02:26 PM   #607
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I think people here blamed him for the OBJ situation, and seeing OBJ get so much positive press and a Ring while the team took a step backward made things worse last month.

Usually, if a guy guts it out like Mayfield did, he gets respect from teammates. But the sudden good-bye letter when Cleveland entered the Watson discussion, along with the really stupid response from management - it all became the narrative.

He became that immature guy again who had all that talent, but couldn't play in the NFL. Just like Johnny Manziel. People here are very sensitive to that kind of thing after Manziel. He quickly lost all that goodwill.

You want to buy low and sell high. If Seattle's staff thinks Mayfield can cut down on interceptions and run their offense and isn't a red-flag guy after all, it's a great opportunity to get a franchise quarterback for almost nothing. It's a no-risk test run unless they believe in Lock.
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Old 03-22-2022, 03:35 PM   #608
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The QB injury thing is weird - it was obvious as it was happening that Mayfield was hurting the team in the short term and risking his long term health, just like it was obvious Russell Wilson came back too soon, and it was obvious in past years with Cam Newton on the Panthers. It's just bad organizations being bad organizations (at least in the Browns/Panthers cases - I don't think Wilson was risking further injury at least, he was just bad on the field.)

Though the Wilson stuff does tie in with another point - it's crazy to see the perception swing based off one year of team success. Everyone seems to have Matthew Stafford in their Tier 1 now, and I'd still take Russell Wilson over him. At the least they're in the same tier, Stafford isn't up with the true elite like Mahomes, Rodgers, Brady.
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Old 03-22-2022, 03:46 PM   #609
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Some of the reporting suggests that the Browns were not too happy that Baker either revealed or at the very least kept discussing his injury after it was revealed. I honestly don't remember he did actually reveal the injury. Either way, the organization felt he was getting his excuses in upfront.

I think it is as simple as Baker not being Burrow, Lamar or even 2022 Big Ben. I don't think they had to throw him under the bus but I understand why they looked to move on from him.
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Old 03-22-2022, 04:16 PM   #610
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It seems like most of us on here are generally in the same neighborhood. I have just been surprised by how bad he's getting beat up over it. I guess the letter was maybe more presumptuous than I perceived it and is maybe looked at as him trying to force their hand, but I'd be pretty salty if I were him, too.

I guess it is good that the Browns are being ambitious, but they went from 4 wins in the three years before he arrived (4-44) to .500 over the four since he arrived (I believe 32-32-1) while he has had three different coaching staffs. They were 19-14 the past two years (the only time that he's had the same coaching staff in place for more than one season) with the playoff appearance and playoff win. And, they play in a division with two of the more competently run teams in the NFL with the Ravens and Steelers (who are both always in win now mode) and an up-and-coming team that just made the Super Bowl in the Bengals.

As a Steelers' fan, I'm glad that they are handling it so poorly, but I do feel bad that this is how his Browns' career is going to come to an end. And, I would not bet a whole lot of money that the Browns will make the playoffs over the next 3-4 years. It should be interesting to watch. If he is healthy and costs were the same, I think I'd rather have him on the Steelers than Trubisky.
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Old 03-22-2022, 04:24 PM   #611
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It's always tricky with quarterbacks. Can't attribute too much of a team's success to them, but can't attribute too little, either. Usually, we do the former.

I can't recall a guy who spent so much of his career losing being held in such high regard. Yet Stafford's numbers improved quite a bit this past season, and it's easy to argue that trading for him brought the Rams the Super Bowl.

Maybe not Tier 1 overall, but I think he was there in 2021 and may stay there. With Wilson, the question is whether he gets back there after just an OK season.
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Old 03-22-2022, 08:48 PM   #612
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Rumors on Terron Armstead and the Dolphins continue to swirl... I suspect it happens, and I suspect the 'Phins will "overpay" but I don't see what options they have really left themselves. If he can somehow stay healthy he'd be exactly what they need... but that definitely challenges what we all feel about injury proneness.

At that $$, I wish the Saints had resigned him. I thought for sure he was going to get > $20 mil.
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Old 03-22-2022, 09:20 PM   #613
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Super pumped about the Armstead signing.
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Old 03-23-2022, 05:55 AM   #614
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It's always tricky with quarterbacks. Can't attribute too much of a team's success to them, but can't attribute too little, either. Usually, we do the former.

I can't recall a guy who spent so much of his career losing being held in such high regard. Yet Stafford's numbers improved quite a bit this past season, and it's easy to argue that trading for him brought the Rams the Super Bowl.

Maybe not Tier 1 overall, but I think he was there in 2021 and may stay there. With Wilson, the question is whether he gets back there after just an OK season.
People weren't even that in on Stafford heading into the playoffs when he was coming off 3 straight multi interception games. He's a better QB than Jared Goff but great QB's elevate their teams & the Rams were 42-20 with Goff his last 4 years while Stafford was winning 6 games a year in Detroit.

Meanwhile Wilson was in a pretty bad situation in Seattle between play calling, the offensive line & had an obvious injury situation he should not have been rushing back from (that had a noticeable effect on his form & stats), and he still put up arguably his 2nd best passing season in the last 5 years. The things that fell off were his rushing yards & his 4QC/GWD/team wins.

It's just a weird thing to see how much extremely recent team success has on perception. (It's not just you - I've heard the Watson is in decline narrative pushed in several places & idk why, nothing in the stats backs it up more than for half a dozen even older QB's we've seen written off erroneously before a trade led to a revival - Stafford included.)
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Old 03-23-2022, 08:19 AM   #615
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At that $$, I wish the Saints had resigned him. I thought for sure he was going to get > $20 mil.

Right, they bought the dip and locked up five years with injury issues looming. It feels like it could pay off as a very good contract... and of course there's a downside present as well, especially with injury concerns. If he really is just enfeebled in some meaningful way, they'll eat a lot of that for a guy on the inactive list.
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Old 03-23-2022, 10:14 AM   #616
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Well... Is this where the Packers get their replacement?

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Old 03-23-2022, 10:14 AM   #617
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Is it me, or has this offseason had multiple events that would normally be the biggest event of a normal offseason?
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Old 03-23-2022, 10:21 AM   #618
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I hear the Browns are looking for a #1 receiver as well.
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Old 03-23-2022, 11:27 AM   #619
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Hill supposedly to the jets or dolphins. I don’t see how KC does this. He’s a cheat code.
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Old 03-23-2022, 11:33 AM   #620
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Seems like a very strange decision. Even if he’s asking for the world on a new contract they can tag him for a year or two. Seems madness to give up your best playmaker when you are among the favorites for a SB.
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Old 03-23-2022, 11:40 AM   #621
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SI
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Old 03-23-2022, 11:46 AM   #622
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Done deal with the Dolphins. Absolutely stunning move. Going to be very weird to see both Hill and Adams in unfamiliar uniforms next year.
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Old 03-23-2022, 11:48 AM   #623
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It's fine if this post gets bumped next year and the year after that etc, but barring some sort of exceptional replacement you can cross the Chiefs off for whatever would have been the exhaustion of Hill's peak(3-5 more years?)
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Old 03-23-2022, 11:51 AM   #624
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Dolphins get Hill for 5 picks, I'm seeing.
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Old 03-23-2022, 11:51 AM   #625
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Dolphins all in. We are going to see really what Tua has got now.

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Old 03-23-2022, 11:51 AM   #626
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Old 03-23-2022, 11:53 AM   #627
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Only got the 29th and 50th picks plus 3 late rounders… surely got to be more to this one than meets the eye?
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Old 03-23-2022, 11:55 AM   #628
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Dolphins all in. We are going to see really what Tua has got now.

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I think you can say the same about Mahomes. Those improvised scramble around and heave downfield type of plays look a lot better when you have the most game breaking WR in the league running under them.

Obviously he’s a very good QB but this season will be very interesting to watch.
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Old 03-23-2022, 11:55 AM   #629
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The ratio of "Tua" answers to anything else is >>>>>>>>

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Old 03-23-2022, 11:57 AM   #630
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Only got the 29th and 50th picks plus 3 late rounders… surely got to be more to this one than meets the eye?

Seems a little light to me but not a big NFL follower and it's more than Adams cost, right?

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Old 03-23-2022, 11:59 AM   #631
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The Chiefs probably weren't going to be able to afford him after the season.
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Old 03-23-2022, 11:59 AM   #632
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Only got the 29th and 50th picks plus 3 late rounders… surely got to be more to this one than meets the eye?

Yeah that is a bad deal for the Chiefs.
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Old 03-23-2022, 12:00 PM   #633
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Wasted a LOT of time these last few weeks running mock drafts for the Dolphins...
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Old 03-23-2022, 12:01 PM   #634
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Seems a little light to me but not a big NFL follower and it's more than Adams cost, right?

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Objectively less... the LV 1st was earlier than the SF 1st that MIA sent, and the late picks don't make up for that differential. Both guys get giant new deals, after the trade, so cost was clearly a motivation.
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Old 03-23-2022, 12:16 PM   #635
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Good deal for both sides imo. The dolphins can make this move with a qb on a rookie deal. Tua had better be the guy though.

Considering this is a receiver that was looking for a contact like this and there's no way the chiefs were going to be a ke to extend him they got solid value. A higher first would have been nice, but that many picks gives the chiefs a lot of flexibility the next couple of drafts.
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Old 03-23-2022, 12:19 PM   #636
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I imagine if you got Mahomes' true reaction to this trade, it would be something along the lines of when Bruce Sutter left the Cardinals and Whitey Herzog said he got 45 games dumber.
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Old 03-23-2022, 12:22 PM   #637
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Hill was the closest thing I've ever seen to the Wingback player on John Elway Football. The guy who was so fast that he could run out the clock on one play and not get tackled.
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Old 03-23-2022, 12:26 PM   #638
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As a Saints fan, I wonder if the Dolphins would be willing to recoup some of that draft capital by trading DeVante Parker, now that they have Hill.
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Old 03-23-2022, 12:46 PM   #639
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As a Saints fan, I wonder if the Dolphins would be willing to recoup some of that draft capital by trading DeVante Parker, now that they have Hill.

I think he and CB Byron Jones are both candidates to be moved in short order to clear cap room.
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Old 03-23-2022, 12:55 PM   #640
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To me what you lose on the field even for this one year as a SB favorite isn’t worth the picks they got back, but maybe if you think he’s going to mope all year (or worse) it’s a smart move?

I guess you take a shot at replacing him with 29 and hope that offense works at a high level still without him - but I can’t believe their SB odds didn’t just get much longer, and I dunno if a package of middling picks is worth that trade off.
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Old 03-23-2022, 01:13 PM   #641
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Yeah that is a bad deal for the Chiefs.

It's kind of like the Hopkins situation. There's only a handful of teams that can afford to pay a WR that kind of money.
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Old 03-23-2022, 02:25 PM   #642
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Many people (including me) were very critical of the Tunsil trade, but it might end up being the best trade in Dolphins history.
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Old 03-23-2022, 02:39 PM   #643
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Old 03-23-2022, 03:35 PM   #644
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While I think Adams and Hill are great receivers, I am curious to see how they produce with considerably worse quarterbacks next season. An interesting experiment.
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Old 03-23-2022, 06:10 PM   #645
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It's fine if this post gets bumped next year and the year after that etc, but barring some sort of exceptional replacement you can cross the Chiefs off for whatever would have been the exhaustion of Hill's peak(3-5 more years?)
I'd take Juju + picks over Hill at that $$$. Though I'd prefer it if they could have locked Juju up to a 2nd year, but understandable he wanted the incentive laden prove it deal so he can get big money next offseason.

Malcolm Butler back to the Patriots. Not sure what happened with him in Arizona but I'll take him over Joejuan Williams! It is crazy that Butler is 32 already, but he was a pretty old UDFA when he came in the league.
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Old 03-23-2022, 10:07 PM   #646
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The 40+ million dollar QB is creating cap issues for teams is clearly what is happening. They then start to look at "luxury" pieces they can cut off the payroll. Arguably, the #1 team in the league had to trade arguably the biggest pure playmaker in the league. Allocating 33 percent of your payroll on a QB/WR would create problems.

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Old 03-24-2022, 08:31 AM   #647
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Many people (including me) were very critical of the Tunsil trade, but it might end up being the best trade in Dolphins history.

They got massively overpaid in that deal, so it was most definitely a great trade for the Dolphins.

I generally resist the follow-through by assigning retroactive value to a trade based on what ultimately became of the draft picks. If the team blows the picks, the trade acquiring them was still good... and the converse as well. Similarly, the fact that Houston nosedived and the final pick from the Tunsil trade elevating massively in value (triggering the eventual 49ers deal, yielding in the end Waddle plus a future 1st, minus some draft capital this year) was an after-the-fact benefit of the deal.

But... yeah, on paper, you'll eventually be able to draw up a Hershel-like grid of what Tunsil eventually turned into, and it will be pretty impressive, even with Noah Ighbinoghene in there (I think that was the pick used on him in '20).
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Old 03-24-2022, 08:41 AM   #648
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Old 03-24-2022, 01:53 PM   #649
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Watson getting indicted by this other grand jury would be so Browns
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Old 03-24-2022, 02:05 PM   #650
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I'd take Juju + picks over Hill at that $$$. Though I'd prefer it if they could have locked Juju up to a 2nd year, but understandable he wanted the incentive laden prove it deal so he can get big money next offseason.

Malcolm Butler back to the Patriots. Not sure what happened with him in Arizona but I'll take him over Joejuan Williams! It is crazy that Butler is 32 already, but he was a pretty old UDFA when he came in the league.

The cap is going to keep going up. Hill gives you the best chance to win a title over the next two years. You can roll over his hit forever. Eventually Kelce and Hill would have to go but until then keep pushing it forward. Probably at some point Mahomes is going to need some kind of surgical work done and that’s the year you soft tank and take cap hits.
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