If Trump Loses In November, What Do You Think Happens Next

[Qwikshot]

Trump world takes stock of which Republicans back him against the FBI - POLITICO

The lines are already forming.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I will be skeptical until I see him led away in an orange jumpsuit. Growing up where I did I have been following the Trump experience for over 30 years. Nothing ever sticks.

I will concede I find it impossible to think they don't have the goods on him knowing how politically charged this would be.

These are the two things I keep coming back to, as well: Nothing sticks to Teflon Don vs They don't do this unless they're absolutely certain.

I just can't see this /just/ being about missing records. It feels like those missing records have super damning stuff and I'm not sure what they could even be at this point or why he'd even have taken records of them - like is there a transcript of him selling out the US to Russia? And that there's not enough wiggle room that he can be like "no, baby, you read it all wrong". A copy of the infamous (and probably fabricated) pee-pee tape? Usually the blackmailers keep the blackmail not the person being blackmailed. Do they have evidence of Kushner selling classified secrets to the Saudis or something?

It has been amazingly quiet for this being so big and being out there for 12+ hours already.

SI

[Ksyrup]

The one obvious hole here - which I pray isn't the case - is that the boxes the investigators saw that had top secret markings were just boxes, and that the documents inside aren't really top secret. Like, there's no way they don't know for sure what's in the boxes, at least that they actually are classified, before doing this, right? I don't think they are going to be explosive - or at least in the strict eyes of the law, they don't need to be. It's a crime simply to have them.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

The one obvious hole here - which I pray isn't the case - is that the boxes the investigators saw that had top secret markings were just boxes, and that the documents inside aren't really top secret. Like, there's no way they don't know for sure what's in the boxes, at least that they actually are classified, before doing this, right? I don't think they are going to be explosive - or at least in the strict eyes of the law, they don't need to be. It's a crime simply to have them.

That would be such a stunning failure.

[albionmoonlight]

No one knows anything, but I don't think that they do this unless they know (i.e someone in Trumpworld filpped and told them) that what's in the boxes is worth getting.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

No one knows anything, but I don't think that they do this unless they know (i.e someone in Trumpworld filpped and told them) that what's in the boxes is worth getting.

Let's say Mark Meadows flipped and told the FBI that Trump has a copy of something fairly damning like, I dunno, a transcript of Trump telling Putin that he gave American intelligence to Moscow to facilitate attacking Ukraine in exchange for forgiving some of his Russian debt.

There's still a million ways he can wriggle out from under that, of course - the transcript wasn't accurate, it was fabricated, it's not that big of a deal (even if it is), etc.

But, putting that on the shelf - what happens if Mark Meadows is lying about what is there? What would his punishment be for lying to law enforcement?

SI

[albionmoonlight]

You know, if the search turned up nothing--they thought they'd find X, but it wasn't there--I'm not sure we ever get closure on that.

Like, the move at that point would be . . . to just not charge anyone, I guess?

It feels like in the next few weeks, there will be a "There was proof he sold nuclear secrets to Russia in the box" or "There was nothing in the box" moment.

But who knows where this goes, really.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Let's say Mark Meadows flipped and told the FBI that Trump has a copy of something fairly damning like, I dunno, a transcript of Trump telling Putin that he gave American intelligence to Moscow to facilitate attacking Ukraine in exchange for forgiving some of his Russian debt.

There's still a million ways he can wriggle out from under that, of course - the transcript wasn't accurate, it was fabricated, it's not that big of a deal (even if it is), etc.

But, putting that on the shelf - what happens if Mark Meadows is lying about what is there? What would his punishment be for lying to law enforcement?

SI

On the first part of your hypothetical though, the factual substance of the document is irrelevant if it purports to be a transcript that is clearly classified and shouldn't be in his possession. The violation is in having a classified document, not in what it says or whether Trump claims it's not accurate. The "juiciness" of the material is really only relevant to the media or public opinion - basically, the GOP equivalent to Dems defending Clinton for being impeached for a BJ.

It also would beg the question why he kept a knowingly inaccurate transcript.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

On the first part of your hypothetical though, the factual substance of the document is irrelevant if it purports to be a transcript that is clearly classified and shouldn't be in his possession. The violation is in having a classified document, not in what it says or whether Trump claims it's not accurate. The "juiciness" of the material is really only relevant to the media or public opinion - basically, the GOP equivalent to Dems defending Clinton for being impeached for a BJ.

It also would beg the question why he kept a knowingly inaccurate transcript.

The factual substance matters in so much that if you're getting Garland and Wray to sign off on raiding an ex-President's home, it's probably not going to be a nothingburger. But who knows. Then again, maybe it was just a routine investigation and warrant and was blown up into "raid on Mar-a-Lago" by the right to create these false expectations. However, again, I think Wray, Garland, and a magistrate know that and would be sensitive to those sort of optics before authorizing this.

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

You know, if the search turned up nothing--they thought they'd find X, but it wasn't there--I'm not sure we ever get closure on that.

Like, the move at that point would be . . . to just not charge anyone, I guess?

It feels like in the next few weeks, there will be a "There was proof he sold nuclear secrets to Russia in the box" or "There was nothing in the box" moment.

But who knows where this goes, really.

This is such a monumental moment in US history in a lot of ways. My wife is like "wake me when he's in a jumpsuit, otherwise this is just nothing like all the gotchas before". And I just can't seem to convince her that I think this is really big whether they find something or not.

Either it is something that leads to court or a conviction (how in the world do you find a jury that hasn't heard of Trump, btw). Or it's something that completely galvanizes the GOP for not just the next 3 months but is used for the next 2 years and beyond.

It takes away what little momentum the Dems had and focuses everything away from Roe v Wade, the "inflation" bill, and the other "smaller" victories the Dems have racked up lately like inflation going down some, the semiconductor bill, Finland and Sweden into NATO, the burn pits act, and al-Zawarhi's death. It focuses everything back on Trump, which I'm not sure is a winning strategy for the Dems.

Oh, and whenever Trump or DeSantis or whatever slime the current fascist-inclined iteration of the GOP dredges up and puts in the White House - they're 100% turning the FBI into their own personal police. There's not going to be any of this "Biden found out about the warrant and raid from Twitter". If Trump is back in office, he's going to be the one picking the targets and if the person in charge doesn't like it, he'll just replace him with an acting yes man, much like he did in the last year or two of his administration. "Restrained" Trump back in 2017 nominated some "party men" to positions of power and some even pushed back at times. He learned the lesson well that you can do anything if you have people who aren't, in the least bit, bothered by the rule of law or consequences.

The tea leaves are so very difficult for me to read right now. You have to think, again, that the FBI doesn't do this unless they have something and they have something big. But some of the bigger names in power aren't going to say anything until they know for sure which side is the winning side and how they can configure that message. Again, the Greens and other assorted idiot cosplayers are going to do their part. McCarthy is a bit of a two-bit hack and his power structure comes from his proximity to Trump. So you get why they do it. But there's a little too much chatter from the more "mainstream" ones. Is it because they're that indebted to Trump's influence that they have to stand by him even if they suspect it goes off a cliff? Or do they know what's coming and that it's nothing and it's safe to hitch their wagon to him?

SI

[albionmoonlight]

Yeah. For all of the people saying that this was politically motivated, it was about as horrible of timing as the Dems could want.

For the first time in, what, six months, there was good news for the administration. And the media was actually portraying it as such. And now it will just be TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP which is, at best, neutral for the Dems.

[GrantDawg]

Ok, so the reports saying the judge was an attorney that worked for Epstein to represent some of his emoyees is a pretty bad look, rught?

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[Atocep]

This has Trump supporters pretty shook. You can tell there's fear the whole thing may be starting to crumble as any time these people are scared they try to project toughness and the tough talk right now is higher than what I was seeing post election.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Yeah. For all of the people saying that this was politically motivated, it was about as horrible of timing as the Dems could want.

For the first time in, what, six months, there was good news for the administration. And the media was actually portraying it as such. And now it will just be TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP which is, at best, neutral for the Dems.

I think there was never a good time, Trump will always portray himself a victim and his goobers will enable him.

That being said, if it is significant to warrant a warrant then so be it.

Trump is always going to be a dog whistle and he was always going to foist himself into any conversation.

Trump is guilty as hell and he needs to be prosecuted. This is probably the only shot at that.

I hope it works.

[Qwikshot]

"No, there is no security that something wasn't planted," she added. "I'm not saying that's what they did."
--Christina Bobb, an attorney for President Donald Trump

Translation: The Feds got something really bad?

They're implying inside job now?

[Atocep]

One of his attorneys did confirm documents were taken and Lara Trump confirmed the same on Fox News so they definitely got something. How significant that something is remains to be seen.

Of course his supporters are saying these must be documents of public importance that he planned on using to expose the deep state.

[albionmoonlight]

It is so weird that the spectrum of possibilities ranges from some documents that were technically classified but honestly not that big of a deal that he had them to iron-clad proof that he gave Putin military secrets in exchange for a promise to help finance another golf course.

[Lathum]

The fact they can call themselves the party of law and order is peak disconnect from reality.

[Lathum]

Kind of ironic if the guy who the Republican Party stonewalled from getting a seat in the Supreme Court ends up bringing down the party.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Atocep

This has Trump supporters pretty shook. You can tell there's fear the whole thing may be starting to crumble as any time these people are scared they try to project toughness and the tough talk right now is higher than what I was seeing post election.

This is still America and nothing happens to rich, powerful people. The guy openly admits to crimes, so I don't think a search and some documents will change that. Maybe it's just a PR stunt from the FBI/DOJ to give the impression they are treating people as equal under the law (they never have).

I don't think it's fear from supporters, more anger. They don't view law through the prism of legal and illegal. It's based on class, race, and political affiliation. Black? Criminal. Democrat? Criminal. Gay? Criminal. There's a whole cottage industry built around calling every obvious crime committed by someone they like as a "false flag".

They aren't mad at law enforcement for overstepping their authority. They'd be perfectly fine if it was some poor black man being raided at 5am. They lusted at the idea of Hillary being put in prison. Law enforcement to them isn't about the law, it's about punishing their perceived enemies.

[GrantDawg]

I think I'm in the camp of "nothing comes of this." I hope I am wrong. Maybe a lesser staffer gets charged with something. But unless they have a record of Trump ordering the boxes to Mara-largo or pictures of him carrying them himself, he is going to have some deniability.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I think I'm in the camp of "nothing comes of this." I hope I am wrong. Maybe a lesser staffer gets charged with something. But unless they have a record of Trump ordering the boxes to Mara-largo or pictures of him carrying them himself, he is going to have some deniability.

It's really hard for me to not think this will be the result. Between the aforementioned teflon Trump and rich people don't get punished in America, it's hard to expect anything different

SI

[RainMaker]

Case in point.

Charlie Kirk says "raids must be met with raids" and calls on Republican attorneys general to raid BLM, Planned Parenthood, and George Soros: "Get a little creative Republican attorney generals, they just raided Donald Trump's home" pic.twitter.com/2PHrNAC1P5

— Jason Campbell (@JasonSCampbell) August 9, 2022

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Atocep

One of his attorneys did confirm documents were taken and Lara Trump confirmed the same on Fox News so they definitely got something. How significant that something is remains to be seen.

Of course his supporters are saying these must be documents of public importance that he planned on using to expose the deep state.

I think the fact that Trump hasn't released the search warrant shows there was probably some validity to it. If it was some bogus charges or nothing of importance, he'd have that thing plastered all over the news.

[Vegas Vic]

pic.twitter.com/HNuriDUQqA

— West Wing Reports (by Paul Brandus) (@WestWingReport) August 9, 2022

[Lathum]

A guy just called into a radio show I listen to and said it doesn’t matter if trump has the original Declaration of Independence at mar a lago he’s a former president and shouldn’t be subjected to this kind of treatment.

Sums up how these people think pretty perfectly.

[GrantDawg]

Congressman Scott Perry had three FBI agents come to him with a warrant and took his IPhone. The net is closing.

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[Lathum]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Congressman Scott Perry had three FBI agents come to him with a warrant and took his IPhone. The net is closing.

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I am starting to get more optimistic.

Hard to see Garland going after high profile members form a party without it being a stone cold lock.

I doubt things would be this quick but is it possible they found something on Alex Jones phone that would be the reason?

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

It is so weird that the spectrum of possibilities ranges from some documents that were technically classified but honestly not that big of a deal that he had them to iron-clad proof that he gave Putin military secrets in exchange for a promise to help finance another golf course.

Instead of looking from the FBI side I'm trying to think from the Trump side. We know he's dumb and people in his family idiotically admit to crimes and cover ups, but if there was something that bad about him he thought he had to remove it from the White House wouldn't he or someone in his circle be smart enough to destroy it? (Plus wouldn't there be other copies of those papers from wherever they originated?)

I wonder if it's documents tied to the Hunter Biden or Hillary investigations or something like that. Could see him thinking he had "the right" to take stuff like that and go use it as a possible October surprise or something, but I have a hard time seeing him do it with boxes and boxes of stuff that implicates him and not just destroying it in the interim. EDIT - oooo, or even juicier, dirt on Republicans...

[Jas_lov]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I am starting to get more optimistic.

Hard to see Garland going after high profile members form a party without it being a stone cold lock.

I doubt things would be this quick but is it possible they found something on Alex Jones phone that would be the reason?

Or Meadows is helping them.

[Ksyrup]

It doesn't have to be anything that implicates him or someone else. I tend to think it's nothing important in that sense but has sensitive information related to foreign policy or something along those lines that should have been left.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Instead of looking from the FBI side I'm trying to think from the Trump side. We know he's dumb and people in his family idiotically admit to crimes and cover ups, but if there was something that bad about him he thought he had to remove it from the White House wouldn't he or someone in his circle be smart enough to destroy it? (Plus wouldn't there be other copies of those papers from wherever they originated?)

I wonder if it's documents tied to the Hunter Biden or Hillary investigations or something like that. Could see him thinking he had "the right" to take stuff like that and go use it as a possible October surprise or something, but I have a hard time seeing him do it with boxes and boxes of stuff that implicates him and not just destroying it in the interim. EDIT - oooo, or even juicier, dirt on Republicans...

The speculation I saw from his Art of the Deal ghostwriter is it was classified documents he thought would be cool as memorabilia he could show off at Mar A Lago and eventually sell privately.

[Ksyrup]

Likely letters from foreign leaders who flatter him.

[JPhillips]

Seems like Trump world is starting to settle on the claim that the FBI planted evidence. How bad is this going to be?

[Ksyrup]

Apparently the law on removing documents was amended to make it a felony in 2018. A bill Trump signed. Delicious.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Seems like Trump world is starting to settle on the claim that the FBI planted evidence. How bad is this going to be?

Not that facts matter, but there is something of a paper trail about these documents. We don't know how detailed the discussion was, but they went this route only after negotiations broke down. So I believe they know what the documents are and the fight will be over whether they are classified or not.

[tarcone]

Richard Nixon would love to be in politics today

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Likely letters from foreign leaders who flatter him.

Zero chance Garland risks the political implications over these.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I am starting to get more optimistic.

Hard to see Garland going after high profile members form a party without it being a stone cold lock.

I doubt things would be this quick but is it possible they found something on Alex Jones phone that would be the reason?

Speaking of Alex Jones's phone. Of course, the big story is that he sent a nude pic of his wife without her consent to Roger Stone
Alex Jones sent nude photo of wife to Roger Stone, Sandy Hook lawyer reveals | US news | The Guardian

Alex Jones sent nude photo of wife to Roger Stone, Sandy Hook lawyer reveals : news
If reddit is to be believed, Roger Stone is a well known swinger as is John Bolton. Um... I need to pause now to fight back the bile. I don't know if this is true. And there's no way in hell I'm Googling that for fear of what I might find.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEuhTtwSqCw
Anyway, the lawyer who had the phone did an interview yesterday. He said he's cooperating with the Jan 6 commission but he can't say much more about it... so he passed along some other fun instead:
* Despite his protests to the contract, Jones had a number of "intimate photos" (read: dick pics) on the phone but the lawyer said that's fairly common
* He's a sad little man who isn't at the center of anything but shunned by pretty much everyone
* However, all that speculation about who the Senator was that was mentioned - it sounds like it was Ted Cruz and Jones's employees claim to have a "back channel" to get information to him
* Out of decency, yeah, not going to be releasing family details or other stuff. But they're going to look through the phone forensically to see if there is anything else newsworthy and release it.

So it sounds to me like there's probably not a ton there, generally.

SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I think I'm in the camp of "nothing comes of this." I hope I am wrong. Maybe a lesser staffer gets charged with something. But unless they have a record of Trump ordering the boxes to Mara-largo or pictures of him carrying them himself, he is going to have some deniability.

I agree with you. If they do have something, it better be significant.

It's not clear to me the exchanges (if any) between FBI and Trump's team prior to the raid.

If it was me, I'd say "Oh yeah, sorry about that. Let me get the rest of the Top Secret boxes" ... after I go through them and burn any really incriminating stuff in my the chimney, in my private study.

[Ksyrup]

The CNN article I read described a June visit in which investigators met with his attorney and Trump even stopped by to exchange pleasantries. They showed them the room where the boxes were. Unclear whether they actually looked inside them but it wasn't described that way, just that the boxes had obvious top secret markings on them. After that, they engaged in a series of negotiations over the boxes until investigators felt they were getting the run-around, which lead to the warrant.

Now, based on that general description, this could be about nothing. But I have to believe they got inside info of some specific document or documents he has that required the warrant. Otherwise, our planned Canada summer vacation 2023 may involve an extra day or two of house hunting.

[Swaggs]

I think it is also telling that Trump (via social media) and his surrogates haven't been spouting off about what the feds DID take. With his martyr narcissist complex, I find it hard to believe that he isn't claiming that the big, bad feds took his grandfather's pocket watch or his mother's pearls. They took something that he wasn't supposed to have. Best case for him is that it was something that was illegal to remove, but probably inconsequential that he considered memorabilia or something along those lines. That makes it look like the DoJ should have looked the other way but are doing it for political points. He and his handlers are just so sloppy and unprofessional, it seems feasible that it could be something like that.

[GrantDawg]

The number of times "we know the FBI plants evidence" has been repeated on right-wing media, including by his own attorney, suggests they got something.

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[GrantDawg]

Dola: even more, Trump suggested this morning the FBI planted evidence. They definitely got something pretty bad.

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[Lathum]

"It's time for a CIVIL WAR!" type boys on Twitter who said they couldn't breathe when they had to wear a mask

— Christian Schneider (@Schneider_CM) August 9, 2022

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Dola: even more, Trump suggested this morning the FBI planted evidence. They definitely got something pretty bad.

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Yeah. A lot of my “what if they found a nothingburger” fears went away with his new statement.

[GrantDawg]

And he pleads the fifth for the New York DA. Of course he did. All mafia dons plead the fifth.

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[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Yeah. A lot of my “what if they found a nothingburger” fears went away with his new statement.

I still don't know. Trump has definitely been the master of dangling keys. I can see him letting the Democrats waste time and energy chasing after a nothing-burger (or something the general public really cares about).

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

And he pleads the fifth for the New York DA. Of course he did. All mafia dons plead the fifth.

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I'm sure Twitter is full of tweets and videos of him saying that right now.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

And he pleads the fifth for the New York DA. Of course he did. All mafia dons plead the fifth.

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This is the defense lawyer in me, but I'll say that everyone should take the Fifth all the time unless you are actively cooperating with the assistance of an attorney.

Don't make their job easier than it has to be. They are not your friends. They are trying to send you to jail.