Werewolf XXV: A long time ago...game over, Sith win,full role listing at 2030

[SnDvls]

unvote king
vote hoops

if this is the path (no pun intended) we are choosing then let's do it.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I can neither confirm nor deny that there is a Sith among the three players that you listed. But taking an approach of systematically eliminating the three players until you find a Sith is very possibly going to result in a loss if you miss on the first two guesses.

I want to clarify my thoughts for what it's worth.

Although I do think there is better than 50/50 chance a sith is in the mix of myself/AE/Hoops, I'm certainly not 100% convinced of it. If we are all Jedi, the game is over.

My gut tells me that we're being played big time and that the Sith are feeding the suspicion on the three of us wherever they can, and doing a hell of a job of it. My thoughts at this point run more toward the experienced players who have the cunning ability to pull this off quietly -- King/KWhit/Gram (I haven't played enough with Sack to know his style). But I have no proof one way or the other, it's just gut.

I know I'm Jedi. I thought Hoops was but have started to doubt. I doubted AE earlier and now believe him more. I should pile on Hoops, but I think there's at least a 40% chance we lose if we start down this road.

So, I'll switch up a bit. Since Hoops wants to vote Gram, I'll go with him for now. I'd be willing to switch to King. I don't know that I'm going to pile on, even though it likely puts me under ever greater suspicion not to.

VOTE GRAMMATICUS

[SackAttack]

Heading to school. Back in around an hour, and will probably vote then.

[hoopsguy]

I just want to make sure that I'm not missing part of the case being made against me at this point:
1.) We haven't lynched a Sith yet, so I'm a Sith (or else AE or Barkeep, but I'm first to be tested) because I would have caught one if I was alive - never mind that my votes have rarely been on the person lynched on a given day.
2.) As a Sith I moved the vote last night, even though the expectation was that Stkelly would have died by tie-breaker, by virtue of getting his first vote later (I think this is the case, AE seemed to indicate this as well after his post-extension vote change)
3.) I'm lying about both my reveal last night and having my vote forced this morning

Anything I'm missing?

So my sequence was:
1.) Plant info early in Day 6 to set up a later fake reveal
2.) Move vote to avoid tie, despite strong likelihood of not needing to do so
3.) After extension, come out with the fake reveal initially set up in #1
4.) After fake reveal, then accuse another player before end of evening
5.) Come out today with a vote that I saw is forced, against the guy who is the most suspicious of me based on voting patterns of the last few days
6.) Put myself in a position where in order to pull off my bluff I need to continue playing a completely defensive game

Why in the world would a Sith play this way? If you guys really think that this sequence of events makes sense, then I'm obviously not going to move votes by the end of the day. But it seems laughable from where I'm sitting.

I'm a pretty methodical player in most of these games ... just about everyone left has played multiple games with me before and should have some level of concern about how utterly random the above actions sound.

[pennywisesb]

I was probably 90% sure Hoops was a Jedi until the whole Grammaticus vote today. This entire game I've found myself second guessing every instinct that I have which is REALLY frustrating. Gramm brought up some good points in disputing Hoops claim, and with Saldana putting the clamps down on Hoops, we'll never know if he is in fact telling the truth (until of course the game is over).

I still have SERIOUS doubts about King, but it looks as though the masses are choosing to go a different direction. I had some supicions on barkeep earlier in the game, but since path has taken his role over, he hasn't been nearly as combative which has kinda kept him off my radar.

FWIW, I still think Hoops is telling the truth (I'm about 75% sure), even with the doubts Gramm has stated. I could be way off and Hoops could have just pulled the wool over my eyes, but I'm going to go with my early game instincts and:

unvote Kingfc

Vote Path12

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by path12

I want to clarify my thoughts for what it's worth.

Although I do think there is better than 50/50 chance a sith is in the mix of myself/AE/Hoops, I'm certainly not 100% convinced of it. If we are all Jedi, the game is over.

My gut tells me that we're being played big time and that the Sith are feeding the suspicion on the three of us wherever they can, and doing a hell of a job of it. My thoughts at this point run more toward the experienced players who have the cunning ability to pull this off quietly -- King/KWhit/Gram (I haven't played enough with Sack to know his style). But I have no proof one way or the other, it's just gut.

I know I'm Jedi. I thought Hoops was but have started to doubt. I doubted AE earlier and now believe him more. I should pile on Hoops, but I think there's at least a 40% chance we lose if we start down this road.

So, I'll switch up a bit. Since Hoops wants to vote Gram, I'll go with him for now. I'd be willing to switch to King. I don't know that I'm going to pile on, even though it likely puts me under ever greater suspicion not to.

VOTE GRAMMATICUS

My concern when Barkeep was on board was that Hoops and Barkeep were Sith. I’ve pushed for Hoops every day since then. I still believe that Hoops and BK/Path are likely to be Sith. I think AE and SnDvl are more than likely on the up and up. Path’s decision to vote me because that is where Hoops wants to go is odd. Hoops claims he is compelled to vote me. So where is Path going with this “Since Hoops wants to vote Gram” comment? After Path says he is better than 50% confident one of the three (AE, Hoop, Path) are Sith, he says he is good, he trusts AE more and is suspicious of Hoops. Then goes and votes with Hoops, who is supposed to be voting under mind control?

Hoops should have been our number one target for the last two nights. I believe the Sith changed the vote last night to protect Hoops, not to throw us off. In essence it really has done both.

I still contend they did not wait to use mind control as a deceptive ploy. They do not know what roles are in the game and are not going to risk not getting to use such a strong power, due to getting pk’d or something like that. When you have a power that strong you use it as much as you can. I think it is a tie breaker role. Otherwise this is definitely not a standard werewolf game, as indicated by Saldana.

[hoopsguy]

I think people are putting WAY too much stock in the standard werewolf game comment. What I think he was implying is that there would not be maps, digging for gold, etc like the last game that Barkeep ran. He can clarify on that if he wants to, but I never took that to mean that it was going to be a game with purely conventional roles.

As far as a tie-breaker mechanism, the "moved vote" created a tie with Qwik/Taz while breaking a tie with Stkelly/Me. So I'm not sure how you say it is just a tie-breaking mechanism when it has been used to move people into forcing a tie and move people off of an existing tie.

[hoopsguy]

Votes as of Post #1607:

Gram - Hoopsguy (1538), Path (1602)
Hoops - Ardent (1555), Grammaticus (1557), KWhit (1560), SnDvls (1601)
Path - Penny (1605)

[hoopsguy]

Votes as of Post #1608:

Gram - Hoopsguy (1538), Path (1602)
Hoops - Ardent (1555), Grammaticus (1557), KWhit (1560), SnDvls (1601)
Path - Penny (1605)

Not voted: King, Sack, Taz, Cartman

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I think people are putting WAY too much stock in the standard werewolf game comment. What I think he was implying is that there would not be maps, digging for gold, etc like the last game that Barkeep ran. He can clarify on that if he wants to, but I never took that to mean that it was going to be a game with purely conventional roles.

As far as a tie-breaker mechanism, the "moved vote" created a tie with Qwik/Taz while breaking a tie with Stkelly/Me. So I'm not sure how you say it is just a tie-breaking mechanism when it has been used to move people into forcing a tie and move people off of an existing tie.

My thoughts on the tie breaker are the Sith can move the vote to create or break a tie. If they move to create, the person the Sith moved the vote onto, gets the lynch. Either way, the tie break versus general mind control does not affect my belief of your allegiance.

[hoopsguy]

Fair enough, Gram. But what you are describing is not a tie-breaker. To paint it as that as an argument to hang me (because I'm faking the 'tie-breaker' role) is not a sound argument.

As long as I'm stuck voting for you, I'm going to find out if Saldana will let me defend that vote. Since you seem determined to hang me it doesn't feel like I'm exactly burning a bridge for later in the game.

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Fair enough, Gram. But what you are describing is not a tie-breaker. To paint it as that as an argument to hang me (because I'm faking the 'tie-breaker' role) is not a sound argument.

As long as I'm stuck voting for you, I'm going to find out if Saldana will let me defend that vote. Since you seem determined to hang me it doesn't feel like I'm exactly burning a bridge for later in the game.

Actually, I have accused you of faking being under mind control period. Whether it was tie breaker or general mind control makes no difference. And your ploy to “ask Saldana” if you can now support your vote is just more BS for you to try and hide behind. If you did not believe in your vote to start with, there would be nothing to defend. A Jedi would not try to defend a vote like that just because he was “stuck” with it to use your own words. You would more likely let the team try to move the vote to Path (since you say you are not allowed to do that yourself) as that is currently a real option. I am now about as sure as I can get that you ARE a sith

[hoopsguy]

Gram, it is very convenient for you to continue to attack me when I can't return the favor. I can't comment on whether or not I believed the initial vote that I cast on you and I'm not asking to. I'm just asking that in light of how today has gone, and the fact that I'm not going to be able to move my vote off of you, if I'm allowed to express my real feelings on the one player that is teeing off on me.

If you would be more "Jedi" about it and just sit back and take the abuse, then you are a better man than I apparently am.

[pennywisesb]

Hoops, if Gramm is a sith, why would he place your vote on him? If its to throw us off his trail I have a feeling that if you were to come up Jedi in the lynch he'd be the next to go. He wouldn't really be saving himself except for maybe one more day.

[hoopsguy]

Penny, I can't comment on what the motivation might be. I'm not even arguing for or against my vote (at this point), just saying that it is intensely annoying not to be able to offer commentary on any of the players in the game while I continue to accumulate votes. So I wanted to know if I could find a loophole to explore.

[hoopsguy]

And I've got my answer ... I want to vote for Grammaticus. That is my comment.

[hoopsguy]

Gram, since you are at least engaging me in a conversation - does the chain of events in Post #1604 make any sense for me as a Sith? Because I don't understand how someone would think that I would play the game that way.

Or work backwards - if you were a Sith that found himself in a tie and just saw a 30 minute extension on the deadline, how would you play the game?

[TazFTW]

As if things couldn't get any more confusing. I'm going to go for the person that I was planning to vote for today and that is...

VOTE PATH12

[Poli]

This should make hoops a little happier.

Unvote Hoops
Vote Path

[pennywisesb]

Gram - Hoopsguy (1538), Path (1602)
Hoops - Ardent (1555), Grammaticus (1557), KWhit (1560), SnDvls (1601)
Path - Penny (1605), TazFTW (1618)

[cartman]

I'm back a little earlier than I thought, and now I'm getting caught up on what's gone down since this morning.

[pennywisesb]

Nevermind, didn't see AE's vote:

Gram - Hoopsguy (1538), Path (1602)
Hoops -Grammaticus (1557), KWhit (1560), SnDvls (1601)
Path - Penny (1605), AE (1619), TazFTW (1618)

*edited to include Taz

[SackAttack]

I thought about this while I was at school. It seems as though the consensus is that there's a Sith in the trio of path, hoops and AE. There's the possibility that hoops has been directed to vote for Gramm, and path added his vote to that.

So I think the Sith has to be one of those two, and I think they're trying to remove Gramm (which clears him in my mind).

I believe AE is Jedi, and I think Grammaticus can be trusted at this point as well.

I think hoops is, if you'll pardon the pun, jumping through a few too many hoops to be a Sith. An active imagination could probably accept that - mine's not that active.

I could be wrong here, but I think at this point I'm going to

Vote path

[path12]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

My concern when Barkeep was on board was that Hoops and Barkeep were Sith. I’ve pushed for Hoops every day since then. I still believe that Hoops and BK/Path are likely to be Sith. I think AE and SnDvl are more than likely on the up and up. Path’s decision to vote me because that is where Hoops wants to go is odd. Hoops claims he is compelled to vote me. So where is Path going with this “Since Hoops wants to vote Gram” comment? After Path says he is better than 50% confident one of the three (AE, Hoop, Path) are Sith, he says he is good, he trusts AE more and is suspicious of Hoops. Then goes and votes with Hoops, who is supposed to be voting under mind control?

Better than 50% might be 51%. Where I'm going with voting for you is this: You've been very persistent in pushing the hoops/path/AE angle. You are a good player. It would be a good sith move to have Hoops switch his vote early to you to relieve any suspicion on you (since nobody believes hoops at this point anyway and it confuses the situation even more). My gut tells me that we're being played and that while it's better than 50% one of the three of us is bad, it's not much better than that especially since I can say for sure that 1 of the 3 is good.

So, I'm voting for you on the chance that hoops forced switch to you was a covering mechanism to put you further under the radar. And the continued pressure on hoops (when you know he can't reveal) makes me feel better about it.

The easy thing for me to do if I was just concerned about saving my own ass would be to jump on the hoops bandwagon. I'm not convinced of it. If hoops proves to be good (and I have no way of knowing that), then what? Me? OK, that's two down and how many left? I don't think it's a percentage play when we're getting so down to the wire.

[path12]

Originally Posted by path12

If hoops proves to be good (and I have no way of knowing that), then what? Me? OK, that's two down and how many left? I don't think it's a percentage play when we're getting so down to the wire.

Dola. Or we can switch the two names as it looks currently.

[cartman]

Well, it appeared that up until about an hour ago, there was a clear push towards Hoops. Now, in the past few posts, we've gone back to a 3 way jam, putting us back into the spot of inviting the Sith to influence votes at the deadline. But we still have a few hours left to try and agree on a voting strategy.

[Poli]

Another day, and another no seer reveal. The seer must be dead.

We genuinely need a lift if he's out there, even 6-7 jedis is better than nothing at this point.

[hoopsguy]

Cartman, unless the Sith can invoke the power multiple times in the day they aren't moving votes tonight. My vote has already been "influenced" first thing this morning.

Take advantage of this and vote where you want to vote. I'm beyond annoyed at being stripped of my ability to talk about huge portions of the game all day, but you guys should have the ability to put your votes where you want tonight, instead of where you think you have to put it to avoid a "influenced" vote.

[hoopsguy]

Votes as of Post #1628:

Gram - Hoopsguy (1538), Path (1602)
Hoops - Grammaticus (1557), KWhit (1560), SnDvls (1601)
Path - Penny (1605), Taz (1618), Ardent (1619), Sack (1623)

Not voted: King, Cartman

[Poli]

Can you talk about the basketball games today?

[hoopsguy]

I heard that UConn lost. And I would love to talk about basketball games ... looking forward to watching as many games as possible from now until April.

[kingfc22]

Just got home and I'm glad we are going after Path. That is who I wanted to go after today.

VOTE PATH

[cartman]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Cartman, unless the Sith can invoke the power multiple times in the day they aren't moving votes tonight. My vote has already been "influenced" first thing this morning.

Take advantage of this and vote where you want to vote. I'm beyond annoyed at being stripped of my ability to talk about huge portions of the game all day, but you guys should have the ability to put your votes where you want tonight, instead of where you think you have to put it to avoid a "influenced" vote.

Oh, I missed that your vote was influenced this morning. I guess I hadn't had enough coffee yet.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I heard that UConn lost. And I would love to talk about basketball games ... looking forward to watching as many games as possible from now until April.

As we've discussed before, I'm not much of a basketball guy, but the game was fun to watch. I'm not sure Syracuse has a good basketball team without McNamara.

UConn, well, I don't know. They sure didn't look like a dominant team today.

[cartman]

I'm going with the popular sentiment, and casting my vote to:

VOTE Path12

I'm still not sure, but most people's gut feelings seem to be pointing to him. And unless we get some more late vote changers, this puts him well in the lead to be chosen tonight.

[path12]

Self preservation.

UNVOTE GRAM
VOTE HOOPS

I'll say it one more time. This is a crucial point in this game. Take five minutes and search back through mine and/or Barkeeps posts, taking the angle that we're telling the truth about being a regular Jedi. Then if you still want to vote for me, so be it, I will accept my fate as a Jedi would. But know this. You will not find evil here, and I doubt we can afford to lose any more good guys.

[pennywisesb]

Path12, I'm curious, what are your feelings on Hoops?

[hoopsguy]

Current votes as of Post #1637 (everyone has voted, who doesn't think there is going to be serious - but not "influenced" late movement?):

Gram - Hoopsguy (1538)
Hoops - Grammaticus (1557), KWhit (1560), SnDvls (1601), Path (1636)
Path - Penny (1605), Taz (1618), Ardent (1619), Sack (1623), King (1632), Cartman (1635)

[Poli]

I dunno.

[path12]

Originally Posted by pennywisesb

Path12, I'm curious, what are your feelings on Hoops?

I'm not sure. When I joined the game I went back to relook at the whole thing that he and Barkeep had on day 2 or whenever it was, and I had the impression that after their initial debate that they both seemed to develop less suspicion of each other......and I felt that the only reason they kept at it was to avoid being killed at night, since they're both very good players.

I have trouble reading Hoops, and did last game also. He's so damn
reasonable that it's easy to believe that he's working for the good guys.

So I tended to believe him. But the early vote switch is really fishy, and is either a) a ploy by the Sith to put more heat on him; or b) an excuse to try and clear himself. I have no idea which.

So, to sum it up my feeling about Hoops is vague unease. Which is also how I feel about most of the others still in the game. Saldana makes a hard game.

[Grammaticus]

So Hoops if your PM said you were particularly strong in the force, doesn't that add to the mess? It implies that you would be less likely to get taken over via mind control. But, at the start of the day, you are supposedly under mind control.

Why would the Sith move the vote to save you and hang a less experienced Jedi such as stkelly. Your answer has been to put suspicion on you so we will lynch you. Duh, we were about to lynch you. How long is that line gonna work? At this late stage in the game, if you were good, any bad guy worth his salt would have let you get lynched in a heart beat.

I am sure that you are a Sith.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

So Hoops if your PM said you were particularly strong in the force, doesn't that add to the mess? It implies that you would be less likely to get taken over via mind control. But, at the start of the day, you are supposedly under mind control.

I think the key word here is *less* likely. If hoops is telling the truth, then assuming you're familiar with the d20 system, it might mean that he requires, like, a 17 instead of a 14 for the dominating party to successfully use a Force persuade on him. It doesn't make it impossible. A roll of a 17 is still a 20% chance.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Well I am sorry to see a Jedi die, even one I voted for. However, I actually think I have a Sith as opposed to just feeling uneasy about play.

Hoops has been doing what he does best as a wolf: making lists that cast suspicion all the while not acting on the suspicion. Makes him seem villagerish while not actually being a villager. Pending revelations that's where my vote is going.

been rereading the thread.

just wanted to bring this up from pg #10

either he was on to something or he was trying to frame someone. this whole subbing a player now has me lost as path doesn't seem to be going the same direction barkeep was.

thoughts?

[Poli]

I hate subs.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

been rereading the thread.

just wanted to bring this up from pg #10

either he was on to something or he was trying to frame someone. this whole subbing a player now has me lost as path doesn't seem to be going the same direction barkeep was.

thoughts?

I don't remember why Barkeep left the game, but could he have been Anakin and Path is Darth Vader?

[path12]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

I hate subs.

Thanks.

[pennywisesb]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

I don't remember why Barkeep left the game, but could he have been Anakin and Path is Darth Vader?

I don't remember Barkeep ever mentioning why he left, and he has been active on other parts of the board so its not like he's been out of town or something...

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by pennywisesb

I don't remember Barkeep ever mentioning why he left, and he has been active on other parts of the board so its not like he's been out of town or something...

He reads this thread regularly as well.

[Grammaticus]

Hey what happened to the post Blade made?

[Grammaticus]

Blade, did you just delete a post?