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Old 05-11-2009, 09:43 PM   #1
MalcPow
College Benchwarmer
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: San Diego
Some Combine Benchmarks (and Drafting Thoughts)

It's been awhile since I've made much of a contribution to the community's knowledge base about the game, so I thought I'd post some helpful data I've gleaned over a lot of seasons of draft classes and some tinkering with imported draft files. I'll also try to share some general commentary on the things I'm posting. I haven't done a lot of FOF playing in a good amount of time (other than staying just ahead of the axe in my remaining MP leagues), so most of this stuff will be put to far better use as a starting point for discussion and analysis from you guys. I really hope somebody has it in them to polish some of my less formed thinking on some of this stuff for ease of digestion.

There's a fair amount of information to get through, so I'll likely post position groups one at a time until I have to stop for whatever reason. I'll pick up wherever that might be (if it's not the end), some time fairly soon. So here we go...

I'll use this first section as a way to prepare you for the formatting that follows. As many of you know, the game rates players on a scale from 375 to 625, with 375 essentially equivalent to 0 and 625 equivalent to 100 on the visible ratings in game. (No idea why 375-625, it must just work somehow.) In the charts that follow the first column will be an increment of 25 on that scale from 625 down to 375, basically taking you down the visible rating scale in multiples of 10. To the right of that column will be two rows, representing the max and min score observed for a player with all possible attributes set to the value in the first column (all ratings at 625, or all at 375, or all at 500, etc., etc., in an imported draft file of 1000 players for each position group).

The corresponding figures should make you reasonably confident of what might be possible as a ceiling (or basement) for a draftee you're looking at. Some guys have combines that are only possible for a truly elite player, and if the player's other combines fall within the constraints in these charts, he's a very attractive prospect. In my notes about each position group I'll try to highlight combines or scores that don't seem to matter as much for that particular position based on the observation of real draft classes. I'll also try to sprinkle in other random observations.

QBs

Code:
Grade Adjst Dash Sole Strg Agil BJmp Pspec 625 8.4 9.6 4.3 55 22 6.92 120 99 4.4 5 4.62 28 14 7.8 107 82 600 7.9 9 4.3 55 22 6.94 120 99 3.8 4.3 4.71 28 12 7.8 106 76 575 7.9 9 4.33 55 21 6.99 120 98 4 4.6 4.79 28 10 7.8 103 71 550 7 8 4.47 50 17 7.14 117 92 2.8 3.2 4.84 28 10 7.8 102 67 525 7 8 4.47 49 17 7.12 117 93 3.5 4 4.84 28 10 7.8 102 68 500 6.7 7.7 4.55 47 15 7.22 114 87 3 3.4 4.84 20 10 8.01 102 67 475 6.4 7.3 4.59 47 14 7.24 114 85 2.7 3.1 4.84 18 10 8.15 102 67 450 6.2 7.1 4.61 46 14 7.12 114 83 2.5 2.8 4.84 15 10 8.17 102 67 425 5.8 6.6 4.84 45 10 7.17 108 70 2.2 2.5 5 17 7 8.16 95 56 400 5.9 6.7 4.85 42 9 7.33 107 69 1.5 1.7 5.13 10 6 8.34 91 49 375 3.6 4.1 5.02 41 7 7.33 101 58 1 1.1 5.15 8 6 8.4 90 47

I'll make another quick note here that persists throughout: the Grade and Adj columns may have some innacurracy at the very very far margins. When dealing with a combine skipper, things can get wacky in very rare instances. If your guy went to the combine, however, he's going to fit within those constraints. Another phenomenon to note throughout: look at the lower constraint for agility on quarterbacks ranging from 100/100 guys to 60/60 guys. It's 7.80 for all of them. That is not to imply that agility scores are normally distributed between the two constraints for each of the buckets between those ratings, they're not. It's just a cutoff point, meant to do a very good job of making our lives interesting when evaluating the vast majority of prospects. You will see a lot 4.84/28/10/7.8/102/70 QBs, you'll have to look for other cues to figure out if you've got a 60/60 starter or a 20/20 bum.

So having made those points, some analysis...

-Don't draft QBs with a bench lower than 10. As we'll discuss with some other criteria, some of these constraints are best used as rules of thumb and not hard boundaries. (Remember, we're talking about guys with across the board attribute ratings at a certain level. It's quite possible you can land effective guys with a different mix of certain ratings or something. Just be dang skeptical of them.) I use 10 bench as a hard boundary for QBs. It's really just not worth messing with guys below that in my opinion.

-Masking... (I'll make these points where I can). Players that are being heavily masked as QBs often have high bars in certain attributes or certain paired attributes. Masked QBs, especially quality guys, will almost always have high sense rush coupled with a high long passing bar or a pair of high bars in the following combinations: med/timing, short/acc, 3rd/two min, and deep/read. No combine guys are more likely to be masked in this way.

-It bears repeating, sense rush is a great indicator. It's very reassuring to see a high sense rush bar. Be skeptical of guys with a sense rush bar way out of whack with the rest of their bars.

-Forget about dash. It correlates to scramble frequency. You can use these boundaries to check against that bar if you want, but I wouldn't rule a guy out based on his dash.

-Look for outliers, guys with a bench >17 or bjump>117 should jump out at you anyway (because they'll likely have great other scores), but every once in awhile you can grab a steal.

-Be very wary of guys with even one score outside the constraints of a bucket you think he might be in (unless it's dash). It's simply a bad sign, and unless you really feel pressed to roll the dice, it's best to stay away.

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Old 05-11-2009, 09:58 PM   #2
MalcPow
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: San Diego
RBs

Code:
Grade Adjst Dash Sole Strg Agil BJmp Pspec 625 8.2 8.7 4.29 43 27 6.82 132 40 4.4 4.7 4.55 18 19 7.13 120 26 600 8 8.5 4.29 43 27 6.82 132 40 4.5 4.8 4.6 18 17 7.22 117 22 575 7.6 8.1 4.3 43 27 6.83 132 40 4.1 4.3 4.64 18 16 7.31 117 17 550 7.4 7.9 4.41 42 22 6.98 129 37 3.8 4 4.65 12 15 7.35 115 17 525 7.2 7.7 4.39 43 22 6.99 128 37 3.5 3.7 4.65 15 15 7.35 114 17 500 6.8 7.2 4.45 42 20 7.07 127 33 3.5 3.7 4.65 13 15 7.35 114 17 475 6.1 6.5 4.48 35 20 7.1 126 32 3 3.2 4.65 10 15 7.35 114 11 450 6 6.4 4.48 38 19 7.13 124 32 3.3 3.5 4.75 10 15 7.35 114 9 425 5.8 6.2 4.5 37 15 7.35 120 30 2.7 2.8 4.8 8 11 7.58 108 7 400 5 5.3 4.65 34 14 7.37 119 20 1.9 2 4.85 8 9 7.77 103 4 375 4 4.2 4.71 32 11 7.6 113 16 1.5 1.6 4.85 8 9 7.8 102 4

-To elaborate somewhat further on the sense rush bar noted above... some bars (especially ones more intuitively associated with purely physical skills) seem to (almost?) never be masked. With RBs, breakaway/power inside/speed to the outside seem to be those kinds of ratings. If they're high and other bars are low, you might have something. I usually go looking for high speed to the outside guys in FA that have a high breakaway bar as well.

-RBs are kind of tough to be honest. I've seen good players with position scores and bjumps below the constraints here.

-Masking: I'll note this with WRs/TEs as well, but it seems the mask pairs for receving skills are GD/End and RR/SS. If you see some high bar pairs there and other reasons to be optimistic, it's a very good sign.

-Blitz pickup... there might be something here as well.

-I don't have RBs figured out really. Use these figures as a guide, look for some high bars, cross your fingers... it might even be worth interviewing them.
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Old 05-11-2009, 10:02 PM   #3
MalcPow
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: San Diego
FBs

Code:
Grade Adjst Dash Sole Strg Agil BJmp Pspec 625 7.5 6.1 4.52 43 34 6.92 120 50 4.5 3.6 4.78 20 24 7.36 107 29 600 7.1 5.8 4.56 43 34 6.94 119 50 4 3.2 4.78 20 22 7.47 105 26 575 6.7 5.4 4.59 43 33 6.97 117 47 3.7 3 4.78 20 21 7.56 102 23 550 6.3 5.1 4.63 40 28 7.12 116 47 3.3 2.7 4.78 15 20 7.6 102 22 525 6.2 5 4.63 41 28 7.13 115 47 3.4 2.7 4.78 17 20 7.6 102 22 500 5.7 4.6 4.78 41 26 7.23 115 45 2.7 2.2 4.87 14 20 7.6 102 22 475 5.7 4.6 4.78 38 26 7.25 115 42 2.6 2.1 4.88 12 20 7.6 102 15 450 5.5 4.5 4.78 38 25 7.28 113 41 2.2 1.8 4.89 13 20 7.6 102 15 425 5.2 4.2 4.78 38 24 7.35 111 37 2.3 1.8 4.92 10 20 7.6 102 13 400 4.4 3.6 4.82 36 19 7.61 107 25 1.3 1 4.95 10 14 8.15 91 7 375 2.7 2.2 4.88 33 16 7.93 99 19 1 0.8 4.95 10 14 8.2 80 7

-Some of the same receiving attribute mask pairs noted above apply here.

-High blocking strength is a good sign, and again, it seems to be one of those physical stats that isn't really masked. (For whatever good it does.)

-Don't overthink the FBs dude. Use the numbers as a guide. Don't draft one in the first round unless you're vulturing for Subby.
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Old 05-11-2009, 10:11 PM   #4
MalcPow
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: San Diego
TEs

Code:
Grade Adjst Dash Sole Strg Agil BJmp Pspec 625 7.9 6.9 4.44 47 36 7.12 128 55 4.8 4.2 4.68 21 22 7.53 110 39 600 7.5 6.6 4.44 47 36 7.12 128 55 4 3.5 4.72 21 22 7.62 107 36 575 7.3 6.4 4.47 46 36 7.16 126 53 3.9 3.4 4.76 21 22 7.72 106 32 550 6.8 5.9 4.58 45 36 7.31 122 51 3.8 3.3 4.78 18 20 7.75 102 32 525 6.5 5.7 4.58 42 35 7.32 123 51 3.3 2.9 4.78 15 20 7.75 102 32 500 6.2 5.4 4.62 42 31 7.41 118 48 2.9 2.5 4.78 15 16 7.75 102 32 475 5.9 5.1 4.63 41 31 7.42 118 47 2.9 2.5 4.78 13 16 7.75 102 23 450 5.7 5 4.65 38 31 7.46 117 47 2.8 2.4 4.78 13 15 7.75 102 16 425 5.5 4.8 4.67 38 30 7.51 115 45 2.5 2.2 4.78 13 15 7.75 102 15 400 4.7 4.1 4.79 37 27 7.76 107 35 1.5 1.3 4.99 10 15 8.42 91 8 375 3.9 3.4 4.91 33 22 8.17 101 29 1.3 1.1 5 10 15 8.5 90 7

-Same mask pairs for receiving skills noted above.

-Look at Big Play. This will be even more important with WRs, but a nice Big Play bar on a tight end is both fairly rare and a good sign. As with all this stuff, use it as a way to confirm the other things you're seeing.

-Blocking strength. Again, you can be fairly sure this bar isn't masked. I sometimes look at a really high strength bar with what might otherwise be a more middling bench combine (but within the high constraints) and make a guess that a guy's other more middling combines (within high constraints) might be indicative of high bars in those corresponding skills as well. Probably worth noting as another broad observation that a guy with great combines is usually pretty good in all of them and not a total stud in some and at the very bottom of the constraints in others.

-I don't get too excited on these guys. But another general note for both TEs and WRs seems to be that the agil score is not totally critical. You'll see quality players with pretty crappy agil scores, but not studs.
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Old 05-11-2009, 10:21 PM   #5
MalcPow
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: San Diego
WRs

Code:
Grade Adjst Dash Sole Strg Agil BJmp Pspec 625 7.9 8.2 4.25 45 21 6.72 136 70 4.8 5 4.43 18 14 7.01 122 52 600 7.7 8 4.25 44 21 6.72 136 70 4.1 4.3 4.46 18 13 7.08 119 47 575 7.4 7.7 4.26 45 20 6.74 134 69 3.4 3.5 4.49 18 11 7.15 117 42 550 6.8 7.1 4.37 45 16 6.87 133 67 3.4 3.5 4.51 15 11 7.2 114 42 525 6.6 6.9 4.37 44 16 6.88 132 65 3.4 3.5 4.51 14 11 7.2 114 42 500 6.4 6.7 4.4 41 15 6.94 130 60 3.1 3.2 4.51 10 11 7.2 114 42 475 6.2 6.5 4.41 42 14 6.99 127 60 2.4 2.5 4.51 9 11 7.2 114 33 450 5.8 6 4.42 40 14 7.01 126 59 2.3 2.4 4.51 10 11 7.2 114 31 425 5.5 5.7 4.51 39 11 7.2 120 57 2.3 2.4 4.66 9 7 7.4 108 23 400 4.4 4.6 4.52 35 10 7.22 119 45 1.6 1.6 4.78 7 5 7.55 103 18 375 3.7 3.8 4.67 31 7 7.42 112 37 1.2 1.2 4.8 7 5 7.6 102 17

-I think the numbers will be pretty helpful here. My general opinion, and I think it's shared by many, is that dash is king. This should give you a sense of what a truly elite dash might be though.

-Big Play. It's a great check. You can have some pretty good receivers with low big play, but you'll also note they usually had a dash score within the constraints commensurate with their overall talent.

-Basically, don't draft a guy with a dash over 4.51.

-BJump is just return skills. I'd only use these numbers to check those bars if you're looking for a return guy.

-Masking. Same receiving pairs noted above. Basically you're looking for GD/End and RR/ST coupled with a high Big Play. Adjst, 3rd, Courage, and Avoid can all be single high bars along with a high Big Play as well. Look for these patterns and use other data to draw conclusions.

-I've seen some solid guys with crappy agil scores. A great agil score (and the corresponding getting downfield bar) seems to have some performance benefit though, so let your own personal preferences rule there.

-Don't fall in love with >15 bench guys. I do it regularly, but it's not clear to me it's really all that sound.

Last edited by MalcPow : 05-19-2010 at 11:57 AM.
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Old 05-11-2009, 10:26 PM   #6
MalcPow
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: San Diego
Ts

Code:
Grade Adjst Dash Sole Strg Agil BJmp 625 8 8.8 4.86 47 43 7.32 114 4.4 4.8 5.14 9 29 7.64 98 600 7.9 8.7 4.86 47 43 7.32 114 4.3 4.7 5.2 9 28 7.71 94 575 7.4 8.2 4.88 47 43 7.36 112 3.8 4.2 5.25 9 28 7.78 93 550 7 7.7 5.01 47 42 7.48 110 3.5 3.8 5.27 9 24 7.8 90 525 6.8 7.5 5.01 47 43 7.49 110 3.1 3.4 5.27 9 25 7.8 90 500 6.3 6.9 5.07 47 38 7.57 106 3.2 3.5 5.27 9 22 7.8 90 475 6.2 6.8 5.08 47 38 7.57 105 3.2 3.5 5.27 9 20 7.8 90 450 6 6.6 5.1 47 37 7.59 105 2.9 3.2 5.27 9 19 7.8 90 425 5.7 6.3 5.13 47 37 7.62 104 2.5 2.7 5.27 9 19 7.8 90 400 4.7 5.2 5.28 47 34 7.81 95 1.6 1.7 5.56 9 19 8.35 81 375 3.7 4.1 5.46 47 28 8.13 90 1.3 1.4 5.6 9 19 8.4 80

-Blocking strength is one of those not really masked bars. Look for a strong man to keep you warm.

-Masking. Common mask seems to be a single high blocking strength bar with lower run, pass, and end bars. Another one seems to be all bars except pass blocking high. Again, look for this stuff and use other data to draw conclusions.

-Look for the outliers in dash and agil. I keep an eye out at all times for a sub 5 dash and an agil in the 7.4s. Usually these guys are obvious studs, sometimes you get a steal.
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Old 05-11-2009, 10:28 PM   #7
MalcPow
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: San Diego
Gs

Code:
Grade Adjst Dash Sole Strg Agil BJmp 625 8.2 7.8 4.85 47 43 7.42 110 4.5 4.3 5.14 11 28 7.74 94 600 8.1 7.7 4.85 47 43 7.43 110 4.5 4.3 5.18 11 28 7.8 92 575 7.9 7.5 4.88 47 43 7.44 108 3.8 3.6 5.25 11 27 7.88 89 550 7.3 7 5 47 41 7.58 107 3.8 3.6 5.27 11 25 7.9 88 525 7.1 6.8 5.01 47 42 7.59 107 3.4 3.2 5.27 11 24 7.9 88 500 6.8 6.5 5.06 47 41 7.65 103 3.4 3.2 5.27 11 21 7.9 88 475 6.5 6.2 5.07 47 38 7.66 103 3.2 3 5.27 11 21 7.9 88 450 6.4 6.1 5.1 47 35 7.69 102 3 2.8 5.27 11 21 7.9 88 425 5.9 5.6 5.13 47 35 7.73 100 2.8 2.6 5.27 11 21 7.9 88 400 5.1 4.8 5.28 47 33 7.92 92 2 1.9 5.48 11 21 8.45 79

-Basically the same stuff as the Ts.

-Apparently I didn't grab the scores for the 375 guys. You'll likely get over it.
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Old 05-11-2009, 10:30 PM   #8
MalcPow
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: San Diego
Cs

Code:
Grade Adjst Dash Sole Strg Agil BJmp 625 7.5 6.5 4.87 49 39 7.52 110 4.2 3.6 5.17 13 26 7.84 95 600 7.3 6.3 4.87 49 39 7.52 110 4.1 3.5 5.23 13 25 7.91 94 575 6.8 5.9 4.9 49 39 7.54 109 3.5 3 5.29 13 25 7.98 91 550 6.5 5.6 5.03 49 39 7.68 106 3 2.6 5.31 13 21 8 88

-I'm not that into the Cs. Apologies. Probably best to stay away if a guy's outside these numbers.

-And yeah, same masking stuff as Ts/Gs.

Last edited by MalcPow : 05-11-2009 at 10:30 PM.
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Old 05-11-2009, 10:31 PM   #9
MalcPow
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: San Diego
P/Ks

-YOU THOUGHT YOU WERE GETTING ALL MY SECRETS???!!!1!!11
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Old 05-11-2009, 10:38 PM   #10
MalcPow
College Benchwarmer
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: San Diego
DEs

Code:
Grade Adjst Dash Sole Strg Agil BJmp 625 8.2 9.1 4.53 46 40 6.92 130 5.1 5.6 4.76 21 28 7.36 115 600 8.1 8.9 4.53 46 40 6.92 130 4.8 5.3 4.8 18 28 7.47 110 575 7.8 8.6 4.55 45 40 6.98 129 4.6 5.1 4.84 15 27 7.56 109 550 6.9 7.6 4.66 43 36 7.12 126 4.3 4.7 4.85 13 27 7.6 106 525 7 7.7 4.67 45 37 7.14 124 3.9 4.3 4.85 12 26 7.6 106 500 6.5 7.2 4.7 44 33 7.23 122 3.2 3.5 4.85 9 21 7.6 106 475 6.5 7.2 4.71 40 33 7.24 121 3.1 3.4 4.85 10 21 7.6 106 450 6.1 6.7 4.73 41 33 7.28 120 3.2 3.5 4.85 9 19 7.6 106 425 5.8 6.4 4.75 41 32 7.33 118 2.7 2.9 4.85 9 18 7.6 106 400 4.7 5.2 4.86 40 31 7.61 111 2 2.2 5.12 9 18 8.14 95 375 3.8 4.2 5.02 38 27 7.94 104 1.6 1.7 5.15 9 18 8.2 94

-I've started looking for agil outliers lately and have had some real success. Every few draft classes you'll see a <7.12 guy who isn't a clear stud.

-Masking. Rush strength and punishing hitter seem to be the physical skills that are seldom masked. Look for a guy with big bars in both and check the other data points. Another common mask seems to be all high bars and a low PR Tech bar.

-There are some decent guys with dash scores slower than the constraints. Not studs, but useful guys.

-Bjump correlates with endurance. It seems you can get some good guys with low bjump scores. But that's another one where I look for a big time outlier score as a stud sign.
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Old 05-11-2009, 10:40 PM   #11
MalcPow
College Benchwarmer
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: San Diego
DTs

Code:
Grade Adjst Dash Sole Strg Agil BJmp 625 8.3 9 4.8 44 43 7.12 120 5 5.4 5 20 29 7.55 106 600 8.2 8.9 4.8 44 43 7.12 120 5.2 5.6 5.03 14 29 7.67 102 575 7.9 8.6 4.81 44 42 7.15 118 4.5 4.9 5.06 15 28 7.76 100 550 7.4 8 4.92 44 40 7.32 115 4 4.3 5.07 12 28 7.8 100 525 7.3 7.9 4.92 42 38 7.34 113 4 4.3 5.07 11 26 7.8 99 500 6.6 7.1 4.96 40 37 7.43 112 3.4 3.7 5.07 8 24 7.8 98 475 6.5 7 4.96 43 36 7.44 112 3.2 3.4 5.07 9 23 7.8 98 450 6.3 6.8 4.97 44 36 7.49 110 3.2 3.4 5.07 9 22 7.8 98 425 6 6.5 5 37 34 7.54 111 2.9 3.1 5.07 8 21 7.8 98 400 5.4 5.8 5.08 37 34 7.81 103 2.1 2.2 5.38 8 21 8.44 80 375 3.4 3.7 5.26 35 28 8.19 90 1.7 1.8 5.4 8 21 8.5 78

-Basically all the DE points apply, just look to the DT numbers above.
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Old 05-11-2009, 10:47 PM   #12
MalcPow
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: San Diego
ILBs

Code:
Grade Adjst Dash Sole Strg Agil BJmp Pspec 625 7.8 7.6 4.52 51 35 7.07 124 50 4.1 4 4.76 24 22 7.42 109 36 600 7.6 7.4 4.53 51 35 7.07 124 50 3.6 3.5 4.81 21 21 7.5 106 33 575 7.3 7.1 4.53 50 35 7.11 123 48 3.6 3.5 4.85 17 21 7.57 104 29 550 6.7 6.5 4.65 51 34 7.24 121 46 3.5 3.4 4.86 16 20 7.6 104 27 525 6.5 6.3 4.66 51 33 7.25 122 44 3 2.9 4.86 17 20 7.6 104 27 500 6.1 5.9 4.7 46 29 7.33 119 41 2.5 2.4 4.86 15 17 7.6 104 27 475 6.2 6 4.71 47 29 7.33 119 42 2.8 2.7 4.86 14 15 7.6 100 27 450 5.8 5.6 4.72 47 28 7.37 116 40 2.6 2.5 4.86 13 14 7.6 97 27 425 5.6 5.4 4.75 44 27 7.4 115 38 2.3 2.2 4.86 13 14 7.6 94 27 400 5 4.9 4.87 43 25 7.61 110 29 1.6 1.5 5.04 13 14 8.06 91 9 375 3.2 3.1 4.98 39 21 7.89 107 18 1.2 1.1 5.06 13 14 8.1 90 7

-Seems like dash can be slower than the constraints, but I'd still look to that score for stud material.

-The Pos score is a little wacky. You'll never see an actual draft class guy with a 50, because you'll never see an LB with maxed ratings in Man and Zone coverage, Interceptions, stuff like that. (LBs max at ~75ish or something there.) You also won't see a ton of guys over that magic 27 bottom constraint, even clearly good players come in beneath there sometimes. So take it for what it's worth. I basically just assume that a guy a less than 27 pos score probably won't be much use as a coverage guy, but he'll still have some value.

-Rush strength and punishing hitter. Look for those high bars and other data points for some good guys.
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Old 05-11-2009, 10:49 PM   #13
MalcPow
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: San Diego
OLBs

Code:
Grade Adjst Dash Sole Strg Agil BJmp Pspec 625 7.8 7.5 4.4 49 30 6.92 128 50 4.1 3.9 4.62 22 19 7.24 113 35 600 7.7 7.4 4.4 49 30 6.92 128 50 4.1 3.9 4.66 19 18 7.31 110 31 575 7.1 6.8 4.43 49 30 6.95 128 47 3.8 3.6 4.7 18 18 7.38 109 28 550 6.8 6.5 4.53 49 26 7.08 127 45 3.4 3.2 4.71 15 18 7.4 108 27 525 6.6 6.4 4.54 49 26 7.09 125 43 3.4 3.2 4.71 14 16 7.4 108 27 500 6.2 6 4.57 48 25 7.16 123 42 3.2 3.1 4.71 13 13 7.4 108 27 475 5.8 5.6 4.58 44 24 7.16 123 42 3 2.9 4.71 12 12 7.4 103 27 450 5.7 5.5 4.59 42 24 7.19 123 39 2.5 2.4 4.71 11 11 7.4 100 27 425 5.5 5.3 4.62 43 23 7.23 121 38 2.2 2.1 4.71 11 10 7.4 98 27 400 5.3 5.1 4.72 42 20 7.41 114 27 1.8 1.7 4.93 11 10 7.77 94 9 375 3 2.9 4.85 42 18 7.62 108 18 1.2 1.1 4.95 11 10 7.8 94 7

-Same as the ILBs. Same wackiness with pos scores as well.

-Although I'm a bit more interested in dash here.
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Old 05-11-2009, 10:59 PM   #14
MalcPow
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: San Diego
CBs

Code:
Grade Adjst Dash Sole Strg Agil BJmp Pspec 625 8.4 8.7 4.27 46 21 6.72 136 60 4.8 4.9 4.45 19 13 7.04 121 45 600 8.1 8.4 4.27 46 21 6.73 136 60 4.7 4.8 4.49 15 12 7.11 118 42 575 7.7 8 4.29 46 21 6.74 134 58 4.4 4.5 4.51 14 12 7.17 115 38 550 7.6 7.9 4.39 45 19 6.88 130 55 3.5 3.6 4.52 10 12 7.2 115 37 525 7.2 7.4 4.39 45 18 6.89 131 55 3.4 3.5 4.52 11 11 7.2 114 37 500 6.6 6.8 4.42 45 18 6.95 129 52 3.4 3.5 4.52 12 8 7.2 114 37 475 6.5 6.7 4.42 44 16 6.97 128 52 3.2 3.3 4.52 9 7 7.2 114 37 450 6.5 6.7 4.43 441 16 6.99 128 49 3 3.1 4.52 9 7 7.2 114 37 425 5.9 6.1 4.45 40 15 7.03 127 48 3 3.1 4.52 9 6 7.2 114 37 400 5.3 5.5 4.53 37 15 7.21 119 39 1.9 1.9 4.7 9 6 7.57 105 14 375 3.7 3.8 4.63 39 12 7.42 113 25 1.7 1.7 4.72 9 6 7.6 102 12

-Masking. Ok, I forgot to mention this with the LBs, but this applies to them as well, paired masks for coverages appear to be Man/End and Zone/ST. Punishing Hitter also seems to be one of those physical high bars. I look for guys with a high Pun and Int bar, or high Pun and one of those mask pairs.

-Agil seems to be one of those scores that can be crappy for a quality guy, but not a stud.

-Bjump is again just return skills, so don't pay much mind.

-I'm partial to the fast guys, but really the guys with the knockout dash scores don't come along that often. And when they do, they're megastud guys at the top of a draft.

-So look for the high punishing guys with strong other data points.
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Old 05-11-2009, 11:03 PM   #15
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Ss

Code:
Grade Adjst Dash Sole Strg Agil BJmp Pspec 625 7.5 7.1 4.3 53 27 6.82 132 60 3.7 3.5 4.51 26 17 7.17 118 45 600 7.5 7.1 4.3 53 27 6.82 132 60 3.6 3.4 4.54 23 15 7.25 114 42 575 6.9 6.5 4.31 53 27 6.94 130 58 3.2 3 4.58 18 15 7.32 113 39 550 6.7 6.3 4.42 53 27 6.99 127 56 2.8 2.6 4.59 16 15 7.35 110 37 525 6.2 5.8 4.43 53 22 7 125 55 2.6 2.4 4.59 17 15 7.35 111 37 500 5.9 5.6 4.46 53 22 7.08 125 51 2.4 2.2 4.59 15 12 7.35 110 37 475 5.7 5.4 4.47 48 21 7.09 124 50 2.1 1.9 4.59 14 10 7.35 110 37 450 5.6 5.3 4.48 46 21 7.11 124 50 2.2 2 4.59 12 10 7.35 110 37 425 5.3 5 4.5 47 19 7.16 122 49 1.9 1.8 4.59 12 9 7.35 110 37 400 4.9 4.6 4.6 45 19 7.36 115 38 1.3 1.2 4.79 12 9 7.76 95 15 375 2.8 2.6 4.72 44 15 7.61 105 25 0.9 0.8 4.81 12 9 7.8 94 12

-Same points as the CBs basically.

-Look for the guys who have weights at or below 207. A weight of 191 transfers perfectly to CB. Between 191 and 207 you can usually move a guy at 90% of his ratings and it's usually worth it.
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Old 05-11-2009, 11:05 PM   #16
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So that's it. I hope people find this stuff useful. If you have questions, ask away. I'll be upfront that I'm not around nearly as often as I used to be, but I'll try to be helpful if I can.
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Old 05-12-2009, 12:14 AM   #17
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Wow... that's great stuff MalcPow.

It's greatly appreciated.

But, just want to be sure I am reading this correctly.

Using QB's for example- you can have a top QB (625) that's rated in the draft as a 4.4?
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Old 05-12-2009, 05:29 AM   #18
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Wow... that's great stuff MalcPow.

It's greatly appreciated.

But, just want to be sure I am reading this correctly.

Using QB's for example- you can have a top QB (625) that's rated in the draft as a 4.4?

If I get what MP is doing with this experiment, the only reason there's a QB in the file who's rated at 4.4, is because every player in the file is rated at 625 (is that current or future rating?). In a normal file, that player likely would be 8.5-9.0, I guess. That's relative to the competition.
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Old 05-12-2009, 08:14 AM   #19
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If I get what MP is doing with this experiment, the only reason there's a QB in the file who's rated at 4.4, is because every player in the file is rated at 625 (is that current or future rating?). In a normal file, that player likely would be 8.5-9.0, I guess. That's relative to the competition.

Actually no, but that's what I would have assumed as well. You can see a 100/100 quarterback with a 4.4 grade. The guys on the lower bounds of the Grade/Adj spectrum are almost always combine skippers though. I did a little extra digging with QBs one time, I think the worst 625 QB with combines had a 5.5 Grade.

As another note though, the guys at the edges of these boundaries are pretty rare. The likelihood of getting a 625 across the board QB in a random draft class is pretty low. This study looked at a 1000 guys like that and had one blip at that 4.4 grade and probably a small handful of guys spread out over what was clearly the far tail of the distribution. Keep that in mind as you get dizzy over some QB with a grade in the 4s and some high bars (which I manage to do pretty often).

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Old 05-12-2009, 09:13 AM   #20
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If I get what MP is doing with this experiment, the only reason there's a QB in the file who's rated at 4.4, is because every player in the file is rated at 625 (is that current or future rating?). In a normal file, that player likely would be 8.5-9.0, I guess. That's relative to the competition.

I don't think there's any grading relative to the competition there. In that case, it'd be a super-creeper QB with no combines.
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Old 05-12-2009, 09:50 AM   #21
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Thanks for sharing MalcPow. I'll certainly be digesting this.
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Old 05-12-2009, 10:10 AM   #22
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Amazing information - thank you MP!
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Maybe I am just getting old though, but I am learning to not let perfect be the enemy of the very good...
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Old 05-12-2009, 10:59 AM   #23
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Probably worth another note here along the lines of combine skippers being the really low graded guys in the stud buckets. As you move down into the 30/30 range, the top of the Grade spectrum becomes combine skippers. So don't take a no combine guy as a sure sign of being underrated or anything. They simply become good gambles as you get down into the poorer portions of a draft class if they have other good signs.
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Old 05-12-2009, 12:43 PM   #24
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amazing stuff
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Old 05-12-2009, 12:46 PM   #25
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Is this as to what you can expect once they've signed, or TC, or at their fullest potential?

As a f'rinstance, my 2nd year QB combines looked like this -

29 4.84 13 7.61 110 66

Which would put him between 450 and 550, but for his 66 PosDrill. Came in at 20/48, currently 41/49 3 weeks into season 2. Most likely he's a 500, with just a one-point variance on the PosDrill?
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Old 05-12-2009, 12:56 PM   #26
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Is this as to what you can expect once they've signed, or TC, or at their fullest potential?

As a f'rinstance, my 2nd year QB combines looked like this -

29 4.84 13 7.61 110 66

Which would put him between 450 and 550, but for his 66 PosDrill. Came in at 20/48, currently 41/49 3 weeks into season 2. Most likely he's a 500, with just a one-point variance on the PosDrill?

At their fullest potential. And the "one point variance in the PosDrill" would be a big concern for me when the data seems to imply there's a pretty hard boundary at 67/68 for quality guys. But hey, this stuff is mostly just food for thought. I wouldn't go crazy over miniscule differences at the margins. But I also wouldn't expect your guy to creep to 80/80 or anything.
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Old 05-12-2009, 01:10 PM   #27
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yeah, just throwing him out for discussion. There's also the matter of volatility (his is 65), so his TC this year (+7/+6) might be throwing everything out of whack. But the 66 PD was odd.
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Old 05-12-2009, 01:37 PM   #28
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Thanks for sharing MalcPow. I'll certainly be digesting this.

Oh, and if there's some way to incorporate this information into Analyzer... um, I would like you a lot.
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Old 05-12-2009, 02:46 PM   #29
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Oh, and if there's some way to incorporate this information into Analyzer... um, I would like you a lot.

Well, one way would be to use your numbers and give a range of possible ratings (like 450-550 or something). Another is marking thresholds on the combines.

I'm not real happy right now with the values used by Analyzer for average / standard deviation to generates scores and blue/green markers. I think I need to separate the number for evaluation from the highlighted values. I switched from calced average/stddev to something based on red/blue/black/green bar ranges which works better for highlighting but worse for calcs and I need to re-evaluate that. These numbers may fit into that.

I may also be able to mark masked guys based on the bar info you provide above.

I'm always open to detailed suggestions on what to do with new data...
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Old 05-12-2009, 03:34 PM   #30
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Wow. This is incredible stuff.
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Old 05-12-2009, 04:31 PM   #31
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-Look at Big Play. This will be even more important with WRs, but a nice Big Play bar on a tight end is both fairly rare and a good sign. As with all this stuff, use it as a way to confirm the other things you're seeing.
It's rare because the game seems to tone down the Big-Play skill by roughly 20-25 rating points in game.

Just like what is mentioned with LBs and the M2M and Zone defense skills.
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Old 05-12-2009, 05:44 PM   #32
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It's rare because the game seems to tone down the Big-Play skill by roughly 20-25 rating points in game.

Just like what is mentioned with LBs and the M2M and Zone defense skills.

Yep, nice being a relative thing here. An actual drafted TE with a Big Play greater than 60 is worth looking at as somebody pretty intriguing. You'll see the occasional absurd guy with a 4.5something dash get a very high Big Play bar (and the initial roster TEs have a much higher average Big Play bar than a mature universe of drafted players will have), but you shouldn't expect to see maxed Big Play bars on your potential TE draftees.

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Old 05-12-2009, 06:06 PM   #33
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Yep, nice being a relative thing here. An actual drafted TE with a Big Play greater than 60 is worth looking at as somebody pretty intriguing. You'll see the occasional absurd guy with a 4.5something dash get a very high Big Play bar (and the initial roster TEs have a much higher average Big Play bar than a mature universe of drafted players will have), but you shouldn't expect to see maxed Big Play bars on your potential TE draftees.

For reference: fof-IHOF.com : Ratings Search

(oh hey look - the highest 2nd year guy is with Tucker )

Completely with you on noodle-armed QB. Though even with this info, I don't know what to make of Heath Day, unless his drill and jump should have been signs.
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Old 05-12-2009, 07:40 PM   #34
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noob question: what are "masked pairs"?
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Old 05-12-2009, 09:45 PM   #35
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noob question: what are "masked pairs"?

Not really a noob question, it's basically something I'm using for the first time in this thread. If I describe a pair of bars as a masked pair, like medium passing and timing, it essentially means they move together in masking situations. That can mean they're both lower than they should be (a sign when all other indicators point to the high bars being accurate), or it can mean that they are high together when all other bars other than some of the physical non-masked bars are low (and other indicators seem to imply the player might be pretty good).

In many cases you will see patterns in how these bar pairs move together, that's all it's meant to capture. Using other information you can guess at whether it means much, but you should keep an eye out for the patterns.

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Old 05-13-2009, 12:32 AM   #36
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-Masking: I'll note this with WRs/TEs as well, but it seems the mask pairs for receving skills are GD/End and RR/SS.
what does SS stand for?
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Old 05-13-2009, 03:04 AM   #37
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what's the implication once you think you've discovered a masked pair?

a) it means other attributes are probably masked too.
b) it means other attributes are probably not masked since only a few attributes could be masked.
c) there's no correlationship between a masked pair and whether other attributes are masked or not.
d) none of the above, pls explain?

also, do masked pairs have to have very similiar values to be considered as such? ie. two bars both pointing at 80% range is a masked pair, whereas one bar at 90% and one at 70% is not?
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Old 05-13-2009, 07:48 AM   #38
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-Masking: I'll note this with WRs/TEs as well, but it seems the mask pairs for receving skills are GD/End and RR/SS.
what does SS stand for?

Sorry, should be ST for Special Teams.
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Old 05-13-2009, 07:55 AM   #39
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what's the implication once you think you've discovered a masked pair?

a) it means other attributes are probably masked too.
b) it means other attributes are probably not masked since only a few attributes could be masked.
c) there's no correlationship between a masked pair and whether other attributes are masked or not.
d) none of the above, pls explain?

also, do masked pairs have to have very similiar values to be considered as such? ie. two bars both pointing at 80% range is a masked pair, whereas one bar at 90% and one at 70% is not?

It most often means that pair of bars will be wildly out of line with the other bars. Once you spot that, look to the combine data to take a guess at whether it means the player looks better or worse than you'd expect from the majority of his bars (which will quite often be distributed pretty evenly).

This isn't some perfect solution for every guy. It's most effective at helping you discover the solid number of draftees that have a very obvious bar pattern linked to these masked pairs. The blue bars can be pretty imprecise at times, so don't get caught up on them being exact just look for the general pattern.
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Old 05-13-2009, 11:18 AM   #40
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Probably a stupid question but I'll ask anyway. What happens when you have a player with combines that fall in say the 600 type player range but two of them fall in like the 425-450 range. Would you want to stay away from this type of player despite four other strong combines?
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Old 05-13-2009, 12:16 PM   #41
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Probably a stupid question but I'll ask anyway. What happens when you have a player with combines that fall in say the 600 type player range but two of them fall in like the 425-450 range. Would you want to stay away from this type of player despite four other strong combines?

It depends. If it were a WR and the two low combines were Sole and BJump, I wouldn't care that much. If the two low ones were Dash and Pos, I'd care a lot.

All of this is meant to be food for thought to help you make "better" decisions. Very little here is going to offer you absolute certainty on anything. Take it as greater context for how you look at these scores. I know I would've assumed a 4.45 was a really great 40 time for a WR before looking at this stuff (as really there aren't more than a few guys better than that in most draft classes), but this data gives me a better sense of where that fits. It could be great, it could be pretty pedestrian, and I need to really look at other things. A 4.31 though? Now I know that's damn fast and if a guy has solid other combines I "know" I'm looking at a very good player.

I don't want to over or understate the value of this stuff. With some guys it is going to help you a ton. With many others it's just going to be another indicator.
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Old 05-13-2009, 01:02 PM   #42
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I guess this makes up for all of the cheeting you have done.
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Old 05-13-2009, 01:30 PM   #43
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I guess this makes up for all of the cheeting you have done.

Does this mean we can me a masked pair again?
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Old 05-13-2009, 05:50 PM   #44
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Does this mean we can me a masked pair again?

ONLY IF YOU LEARN HOW TO POST WITHOUT TPYOS!
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Old 05-17-2009, 05:31 PM   #45
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This is super-super awesome, thanks MP. I'm at that stage where I'm trying to really get into analyzing rookies, needless to say this is vital in the FOWL, and just started using draft analyzer a couple months back. This is a very nice compendium of knowledge regarding combine scores. Top notch.

Most interestingly to me it explains some masking details that I had noticed but now make more sense like the fact that almost every draft class will hold one or more LB with a great AGL combine but seemingly 0 Rush Def, I've known for awhile that these guys are studs but now I can see how it applies to other scores/positions.

It makes me think of my RB Scottie Sturm in the PFL, I drafted him just because he looked odd, had full bars in Breakaway and Outside Speed but rock bottom in others. He has climbed about 15 points so far and I feel so smart for scooping him up in the third round.
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Old 05-20-2009, 10:35 AM   #46
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For those who don't understand what a "masked pair" means (I've always used the term "bar signature," but "masked pair" is more precise,) here's a perfect example. Behold, CB Alonzo Cappe in FOWL. First, his reds and blues:




...and the bars. Note the Zone/ST pair.



Now in this particular case, it's obvious from his combines that he's a stud, without MP's excellent data. But it's such a big mask here that it was worth noting.
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Old 05-20-2009, 12:45 PM   #47
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I'll let you know tomorrow how useful this was
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Old 05-20-2009, 04:53 PM   #48
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Guess I will be targetting CB Alonzo in FOWL then...lets see, 3 years for $70 mil? I think that will land him.
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Old 05-21-2009, 10:13 PM   #49
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So is the 625-375 for each rating or is it for the overall player rating?
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Old 05-22-2009, 08:51 PM   #50
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Guess I will be targetting CB Alonzo in FOWL then...lets see, 3 years for $70 mil? I think that will land him.

Well I got him for 3 yrs at the bargain price of 5mil per season, so we'll see. Unless this is some big joke at my expense I'll be very happy with that price.

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