FOF7: First looks at what wins games in the MP environment.

[Ben E Lou]

This isn't meant to be an exhaustive study, but the beginnings of a "first look," and hopefully the eventual gathering of enough anecdotal evidence to draw some reasonable conclusions. The CCFL has finished 12 weeks of the first FOF7-converted season, and there appear to be some noticeable shifts in the balance of power. I'm taking a look at some of the top teams so far this season and comparing to how they did last year, and in cases where last year's top teams aren't this year's top teams, I will look at those as well.

[Ben E Lou]

BALTIMORE RAVENS (Owner=QuikSand)
2037: 3-12-1
2038: 10-1-0

NEW STARTERS
Rookie LT Danny Dixon (58/72)
Rookie SS Walt Thornton (56/67)
FA DE Monty Kelly (56/56)

OFFENSE
63/63 4th-year QB
Decent (52/52) RB.
Below average receivers (42/42 TE, 58/58 FL, 34/34 SE)
Solid o-line (average current = 57.8)

#8 Rushing Offense
#21 Passing Offense
#12 Total Offense
#2 Scoring Offense

DEFENSE
D-line is solid (average rating around 50) but very deep. 4 backups rated 40 current or better.
Stud SLB, decent MLB/WLB
Stud CB, VG young SS, weaker guys at off CB and FS.

#18 Rushing Defense
#3 Passing Defense
#9 Total Defense
#3 Scoring Defense

SPECIAL TEAMS
Quik doesn't believe in spending money on P/K. Both are minsal guys.
#7 PR Average
#4 KR Average
#21 PR Allowed Avg.
#9 KR Allowed Avg.

TURNOVER MARGIN
+6 (Tied for 6th)

CHEMISTRY/COHESION
It's a QuikTeam, so it's a chemistry monster. All four QBs are double or triple affinities. 15 Exceptional Affinities, 6 Strong, 6 Affinity, 2 Mild.

Overall cohesion is a little below average. (Passing mid-pack, OL a little below average, D7 mid-pack, DBs a little below average)

COACHING STAFF
Unimpressive overall. HC is very high in motivation and young talent, but very low in quite a few other areas. Other staff members are mediocre or worse.

MY OVERALL IMPRESSION--Good defense, probably deepest DL I've seen in a while. Unimpressive offense. Solid ST. Doesn't look like a 10-1 team and it's very tough to explain this turnaround. Make me wonder if chemistry and/or motivation might be big here.

[Ben E Lou]

ST. LOUIS RAMS (Owner=King Kosar)
2037: 8-8-0
2038: 9-2-0

KEY NEW STARTERS
Only one worth noting--a 31/73 rookie WLB. They play a 3-4 and he has only 2.5 sacks and a 4.5 PR Pct in 11 games, so not exactly a major impact there. They're winning with basically last year's 8-8 squad.

OFFENSE
66/66 veteran QB
VG year 5 RB whose production has increased dramatically this season (277/1268/4.58ypc last year, 238/1271/5.34ypc so far this year)
TE/WRs a little below average (56/56 TE, 43/43 and 4747 WRs)
VG O-line. (Average current rating = 66)


#9 Rushing Offense
#8 Passing Offense
#8 Total Offense
#1 Scoring Offense

DEFENSE
3-4. D-line is geared toward run stopping (avg run defense of starters = 75 but avg overall is only 54)
Decent LBs but not particularly noteworthy. Best is 68/68 SILB.
Solid secondary. Average cur in mid 50s.

#21 Rushing Defense
#6 Passing Defense
#12 Total Defense
#13 Scoring Defense

SPECIAL TEAMS
VG P and K (69/69 and 72/72)
#4 PR Average
#15 KR Average
#3 PR Allowed Avg.
#2 KR Allowed Avg.

TURNOVER MARGIN
+15 (1st)

CHEMISTRY/COHESION
Nothing special on chemistry. No conflicts, but only a small handful of affinities.

Good cohesion in all four areas. Worst is #13 o-line. Best is #3 passing.

COACHING STAFF
If motivation is helping BAL, then it certainly isn't imbalanced. STL's HC is low in that. Very high in young talent. Other coaches decent, but nothing special

MY OVERALL IMPRESSION
On (virtual) paper, this teams looks like much more of a winner than BAL, a fact that is underscored by them having the #3 roster rating in the league. No position group looks particularly deficient, and some (the o-line in particular) appear to really shine. This team appears to be winning on overall talent, but it's worth noting that they went 8-8 with the same talent last season. The obvious difference is that they have mediocre talent at TE/WR, which held them back in the last game in a league like this where some teams were able to have big-time offenses.

[Ben E Lou]

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (Owner=Vaevictis)
2037: 11-5-0
2038: 10-1-0

KEY NEW STARTERS
They picked up a 65/65 FB and three defensive starters in the 47/47 to 66/66 range via FA and one trade.

OFFENSE
50/50 year 15 QB
73/37 year 3 RB
A little above average receiving corps (avg. cur = 56)
O-line avg cur = 55


#5 Rushing Offense
#30 Passing Offense (They've thrown the fewest passes in the league, fwiw.)
#18 Total Offense
#9 Scoring Offense

DEFENSE
4-3
D-line has 3 solid guys (avg cur = 50) and a stud 85/85 LDT who is dominating (8.5 sacks and 13.4 tk pct)
Good LBs (avg=56
Strong DBs. No holes there. Worst is a 45/45 CB

#10 Rushing Defense
#8 Passing Defense
#5 Total Defense
#1 Scoring Defense

SPECIAL TEAMS
Solid P/K
#20 PR Average
#22 KR Average
#7 PR Allowed Avg.
#8 KR Allowed Avg.

TURNOVER MARGIN
+2 (Tied for 11th)

CHEMISTRY/COHESION
Chemistry is pretty bad. One strong conflict. One conflict. Only four affinities at any level.

Overall cohesion a little above the midline. (Good passing, below avg o-line, mediocre D7, good secondary)

COACHING STAFF
Pretty strong on the in-season stuff. Good playcallers at both OC and DC. HC strong in motivation and solid in discipline.

MY OVERALL IMPRESSION--#8 roster rating in-game is a little surprising. Just looking at them, I would expect higher than that. No unit is a weakness. They've chosen to be a running team on offense, and it has been effective.

[Ben E Lou]

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (Owner=corbes)
2037: 6-10-0
2038: 8-3-0

KEY NEW STARTERS
Corbes made a big splash in FA this offseason. He signed a 79/79 QB and a 73/73 RB. He also drafted a stud G (83/83 by my scout currently) at 1(11). Without looking any further, it's pretty easy to explain this turnaround.

OFFENSE
79/79 12th-year QB
73/73 RB
Mediocre TE and SE (45/45) and VG FL (69/69)
Strong o-line (avg cur = 60)

#7 Rushing Offense
#8 Passing Offense
#4 Total Offense
#7 Scoring Offense

DEFENSE
4-3Good d-line
Good SLB, weak MLB and WLB
Suspect secondary. (Best guy is 56/56 CB. Other three starters are 41/41 and below)

#19 Rushing Defense
#28 Passing Defense
#29 Total Defense
#17 Scoring Defense

SPECIAL TEAMS
Mediocre players at P and K.
#26 PR Average
#16 KR Average
#29 PR Allowed Avg.
#19 KR Allowed Avg.

TURNOVER MARGIN
+7 (Tied for 4th)

CHEMISTRY/COHESION
Chemistry monster. 13 exceptionals, 8 strongs, 8 affinity, 1 mild

Overall cohesion is below average. Fairly strong at D7 (#7), weak-to-mediocre in the other categories.

COACHING STAFF
HC has an up-and-down skill set. Near 100 in motivation, young talent, and interviewing. Under 40 in nearly everything else. Other staff members are pretty solid and uniform.

MY OVERALL IMPRESSION--#9 overall roster with some liabilities (cohesion) and some assets (chemistry) that seem to balance out. After viewing the first three teams, it seems a little encouraging to see that a team with a suspect--but not awful--defense is able to be in the mix for a possible bye week. (More on this later, but my team--which has a HORRID defense--dropped from bye-week candidate to the middle of the pack.)

[Ben E Lou]

That's all for now. At some point, hopefully later today, I'll post looks at two teams that dropped off from top-tier back into the pack.

[Julio Riddols]

I think we're going to find eventually that winning can be done in a variety of ways this version and some seasons are just going to be luckier than others. It's still going to be a battle over who can field the best personnel and coaches, but turnovers matter more now than ever and winning consistently with a glaring weakness is going to be hard.

[QuikSand]

The BAL team above was rotten in cohesion last season, as I newly took over and clear cut that roster very aggressively. Just seeing 20+ guys move from year 1 to year 2 on the roster is, I think, a pretty big deal. The reality is that team is probably a 6-7 win team last year, and a 10 win team this year, short term results aside. Keeping the progress up will be brutally tough, though, as my style of roster building has been deliberately crippled in FOF7.

[cuervo72]

"Good defense, probably deepest DL I've seen in a while."

Making some enemies in Bar Harbor, there.

(Ok, maybe we didn't have a SUPER DL, but until recently both DE were 70+, one starting DT grew to 50+, third DE has had two seasons of 10+ hurries and notched 16 knockdowns last year. Second DT is a run-stopper. And yeah, it's FOFL and it was in the old version. Good DL though. Lots of bruised QB. Lots. )

[sjshaw]

BAL has also played the 3rd easiest schedule so far, which when combined with the upgrade in ownership, makes for smoother sailing.

[QuikSand]

Thanks for the curse, Ben! Two losses in a row since this crap.

[jzicc]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Thanks for the curse, Ben! Two losses in a row since this crap.

so I'm guessing Affinities have not been made to be a stronger factor in this version ? or too early to tell

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by jzicc

so I'm guessing Affinities have not been made to be a stronger factor in this version ? or too early to tell

Too early to tell, and we will likely never really know, but my working assumption (and pretty strong suspicion) is that the system works the same as before, but other game changes have made it much, much harder to achieve and retain the sort of super-affinity nests that were sometimes practical in FOF 2007. It's now brutally hard to build a monster affinity team - the sacrifice in cap space and talent is just monstrous. Similar with cohesion, too, for related reasons.

This strategy to create overachieving, scrappy teams is likely in real jeopardy going forward -- and after a few offseasons, leagues that transitioned from FOF 2007 to FOF 7 are going to see most of those deliberately-built rosters crumbling badly.

[QuikSand]

Seriously Ben, WTF. 10-5 now.

[Ben E Lou]

JINXED!!!

[Ben E Lou]

In all seriousness, there seem to be an awful lot more close games in FOF7. Maybe I just jumped too soon here, though seeing ATL at 9-6 and PIT at 10-5 in the CCFL is still eyebrow-raising...

[sjshaw]

I think the running game and the 4-3 defense are pretty powerful in FOF7.

[corbes]

The starting QBs who play for the 12 CCFL playoff teams have an average future rating (roughly) of 67.

The starting QBs who play for the 20 CCFL teams who missed the playoffs have an average future rating (roughly) of 50.

[corbes]

Starting RBs for the 12 CCFL playoff teams have an average future rating of 61

Starting RBs for the 20 CCFL teams who missed the playoffs have an average future rating of 59

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

JINXED!!!

Sabotage complete. Immediate slide from "one seed" to "one and out" (in the wild card round no less). Impressive!

[MalcPow]

I'm interested in keeping this conversation going over time. Any updates?

[Nemesis]

Originally Posted by MalcPow

I'm interested in keeping this conversation going over time. Any updates?

^ this

[aston217]

Quarterbacks?

[Nemesis]

Originally Posted by aston217

Quarterbacks?

*searching for proof*