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Old 04-19-2018, 05:23 AM   #1
Squirrel
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Cap hits and positional value


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Old 04-19-2018, 05:28 AM   #2
Squirrel
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Saw an interesting tweet about cap hits as a barometer for positional value in the NFL

https://twitter.com/PFF_Mike/status/...467719175?s=19

Got me firing up excel to compare that to the GML and IHOF which are the leagues I play in. Thanks as always to Ben for the amazingly easy and useful data presentation in the BELCO leagues which meant I could do this in no time at all.

Thought it would be interesting to paste up here.

Some thoughts:

- NFL values DTs more than MP FOFers do (because FOF doesn't obvious / enough credit to interior pass rush maybe?)

- MP FOFers emphasise skill guys more than NFL GMs and de-emphasise OL

- GML is less NFL-like than IHOF i.e. the swings away are bigger

- GML puts a lot more value on RBs than the NFL or IHOF

- I hadn't realised that S was so much less valued than CB. Do we see that in drafts? I'm not sure that's something I've noticed

Last edited by Squirrel : 04-19-2018 at 05:31 AM.
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Old 04-19-2018, 02:52 PM   #3
Julio Riddols
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S has become the RB of the defense. I think most GMs and coaches see them as less talented or less ideally sized LBs/CBs, which is probably why they get paid less. Their value is seen as more interchangeable I guess. I think right now it is just a lack of game changer types at S that drags down the pay level there. Seems like there are 2 or 3 guys who are head and shoulders better than the rest, then a whole crowd of pretty good guys.
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Old 04-19-2018, 02:55 PM   #4
QuikSand
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I feel like GML has also had an unusual run of super-talented RBs of late, which might explain the delta there to some degree.
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Old 05-29-2018, 08:17 PM   #5
bdubbs
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Just saw this for the first time, and I think it's really interesting but also explainable to some degree.

With running backs I feel like their shelf life is a little longer in FOF than the NFL, more importantly you can give your stud RB in FOF 300+ carries and 60-80 targets every year without worry of overloading him. Not to mention a young stud RB with production to match his ratings is simply going to demand what he is going to demand, and I think the thought of letting him go to UFA knowing someone else is going to pay it (and probably more) gets most people to shell out. In today's NFL even when RB's have great seasons there's just so little expectation that they can sustain it that teams aren't willing to make the big investment.

In FOF you can control how many targets a player is going to get so a superstar TE often gets valued as highly as a superstar WR.

Part of the reason the OL is valued less probably has something to do with how much players in the MP landscape are investing in skill positions, you can only afford to pay up on so many players. Not to mention the value that an individual OLineman brings to your team isn't as easily quantifiable as other positions.

With DT's I think you nailed it with the FOF players don't value interior pass rush as much. No matter what defensive front you run in FOF a DT is unlikely to match the pass rush impact an equally talented DE will, and that equally talented DE still might have just as many tackles. In the NFL QB's are used to premier edge rushers and moving up in the pocket to avoid the rush. Getting pass rush up the middle is much more disruptive to a QB's rhythm and even someone like Tom Brady struggles when the rush is up in his face like that. It's just something that isn't and possibly can't be replicated in FOF.

Safeties just plain aren't as important as CB's in the NFL, which is why you see veteran corners switch to the safety spot late in their career. The position just doesn't require as much athleticism for a player to be serviceable at the spot. That's not to say there haven't been transcendent athletes at the position, but the better your CB's are the less you really need your safeties to do.

In FOF though I think having a great safety is more important. You need them involved against the run and if they don't have the coverage skills they can give up a ton of catches. Like Julio said though talent is very thin at the position in FOF. I've never seen more than 2 elite safeties in a draft and even then a lot of people choose to convert them to CB's because they have the same skill set and they're taller. Not to mention you might see guys at the LB spot who are over sized for their position and might fit better as a 43 DE or a DE with coverage skills that's only 260lbs that fits well at 34 OLB, but when do you ever see a CB prospect in a draft who is 6'1 and 210lbs and is a better fit at safety?

I think a lot of the positions that are overpaid by comparison to the NFL have a lot to do with the fear of missing out. We draft hoping to uncover these guys with 60+ ratings and when contract reneg time comes they ask for what they ask for and typically the only way to get them to settle for anything less is to guarantee more of that contract. You know if you don't pay the player's ask someone else is almost definitely going to. Not to mention the more times we give in and pay big contracts we're just raising the bar for what the next stud at the position is going to ask for.

Last edited by bdubbs : 05-29-2018 at 08:24 PM.
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