2024 Fantasy Football Advice Thread

[albionmoonlight]

All:

Like many of you, I've got my draft coming up soon.

I figured this thread could be a place for us to share nuggets that we've gleaned from our local teams that might not be making the national fantasy tip sheets.

I'll start. I think that Alvin Kamara is going to be under-drafted this year, and y'all should be grabbing him earlier than he is going.


He is "injured" right now, but that's just a hold-in until he gets a new contract (which I expect to happen). He looked really good when he did play earlier in camp. And the Saints are moving to the Shanahan system, which is run heavy. And none of the backups have shown much of anything, so when he returns, he will be the clear #1.

People are (IMO correctly) predicting that the Saints offense will be bad. And Kamara has been around for a while and does not have that new car smell that we like in our fantasy players. So he's slipping.

But someone is going to get touches/yards in that offense, and I think that he will get a huge share of them for lack of many other options.

He's the only Saints offensive player I'd grab ahead of his draft position, though.

-Eric

[GrantDawg]

For the Falcons it is a tough one to find value. I have feeling everyone expects big numbers from Bijan, London and Pitts. They should put up good numbers, but they are probably going to be over-valued. Cousins coming back from an injury might be a value, but then again he might end up over-drafted for the injury risk.

[albionmoonlight]

oh, and it looks like Taysom Hill is going to be used like Kyle Jusczyk.

So if you don't grab one of the top TEs, I think that he's worth grabbing as a high-risk/high-upside option. I wouldn't want to waste a RB/WR slot on him, but he's gonna end up with good numbers for a TE I think.

[Lathum]

Hill is always one of my favorite players to use in DFS. Always cheap and under owned and always capable of a huge game.

[QuikSand]

Ravens enter season two under a new offensive system. Lamar won MVP but without a monster fantasy season, and they add Derrick Henry. I think the market is more or less properly pricing in these factors toward this offense.

They have a LOT of pieces in the passing game, to the general detriment of any one of them for fantasy purposes. TE Mark Andrews remains very reliable in middle-depth routes, and is being drafted around TE4, which seems roughly correct to me. WR Zay Flowers is going earliest among the WRs, and while there's some obvious upside there, we'd all be shocked if he gathered 140 targets like a prime WR1 is expected to... so there's a talent upside, which is nice to attach to, but the opportunity seems limited by the offense and the system and cast around him.

I think the biggest unknown is whether Derrick Henry will really command the sort of games he has been used to in his career... 24 carries, goal line work, etc. The conventional wisdom is that if he ends up with, say, 10-12 short yardage DT rushes, that depletes the scoring available for Lamar's legs and the receiving corps. Obviously true as pure math, but... understand that Gus Edwards had 13 rushing TD last season...so it's not like that would be a new dynamic there. But in 2023, they only had 27 TD passes. So, even if we grant a bump there, and maybe some consolidation with the departure of walking sideshow OBJ, we still are going to have trouble getting Zay Flowers a whole lot more than the 108 targets he got last year.

Sleepers: I'm seeing TE Isaiah Likely going undrafted in most leagues, and that feels short-sighted to me. He has minor value with Andrews healthy, but he's a TE1 is Andrews misses time, which feels somewhat likely. Maybe just a wire pickup I suppose. And rookie WR Devontez Walker hasn't blown up training camp, but he has the "true X" body type they are honestly missing... they keep trying to make it happen for Rashod Bateman, but it's not out of the question that the ball-winner they really wish they had on the outside (Zay is pretty exclusively a Z/slot guy) is Walker, though the smarter money is that wouldn't happen until late this season. I'd toss a later pick his way in a dynasty league, though, he genuinely could be George Pickens a year from now.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

oh, and it looks like Taysom Hill is going to be used like Kyle Jusczyk.

So if you don't grab one of the top TEs, I think that he's worth grabbing as a high-risk/high-upside option. I wouldn't want to waste a RB/WR slot on him, but he's gonna end up with good numbers for a TE I think.

I grabbed him as my TE2. I hope he pays off!

[NobodyHere]

So is Christian McCaffery going to play tomorrow? Or should I bench him.

[flere-imsaho]

If any of you have a Titan or Bear playing today, just FYI it's going to be an unbelievably good weather day today in Chicago: high around 72 @ gametime, clear blue sky, not a lot of wind, low humidity.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

So is Christian McCaffery going to play tomorrow? Or should I bench him.

Both ESPN and he, himself, say that he's playing. The only question is workload. For the record he says he hopes to play his normal snap count. Makes the whole questionable designation....well....questionable.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Both ESPN and he, himself, say that he's playing. The only question is workload. For the record he says he hopes to play his normal snap count. Makes the whole questionable designation....well....questionable.

Both Christian and ESPN are LIARS.

Well I had the lead going into the game and my opponent has the SF defense. Maybe Aaron Rodgers will lead a comeback.

[albionmoonlight]

I am in a league starting two quarterbacks. I have Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Jameis Winston, and Bo Nix. Which two would you start this week?

[flere-imsaho]

Tough one. I would say not Winston, as the Chargers defense is actually solid and even if he manages to throw for a good number of yards, he could also throw 3 picks.

I'd be inclined to start Stafford as Seattle's defense has regressed a lot and he's got his weapons back.

Bo Nix has quietly been piling up fantasy points and the Ravens pass defense is terrible, but I'd worry that a) their pass rush might still get him and/or b) the Denver defense is good enough to slow down the Ravens offense so Nix isn't put in a position where he's going to make a lot of negative plays.

Goff arguably has the hardest defensive matchup, but the Lions' offense is just playing on another level right now.

Gun to my head, I'd probably start Nix & Stafford and feel terrible when Goff puts up 30 fantasy points.

[flere-imsaho]

What do we think about Joe Mixon vs. the Jets? On one hand he's been terrific and they have a run-heavy gameplan plus two WRs out. On the other hand, the Jets rush defense has been solid and with two WRs out they might be able to key in on the run more.

Do we think:

a) he'll be fine and pile up as many points as usual

b) it'll be tough sledding, he'll get some points but there'll be a ceiling

c) real possibility for a dud here, try to play someone else

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I am in a league starting two quarterbacks. I have Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Jameis Winston, and Bo Nix. Which two would you start this week?

I have it:

Bo Nix
Matthew Stafford
Jared Goff
Jameis Winston

The Ravens are a pass funnel, and Nix adds a running element none of the others do. He's likely got the lowest downside, for multiple reasons, but I put him first here for this week only.

[albionmoonlight]

That was the right call, and I won the week.

Thanks!

[dubb93]

I have to have one of the best 2-7 fantasy teams in existence. I’ve made quite a bit of trades but it just seems like every week or atleast 2 out of 3 my team ends up playing the top scoring team in the league that week. I’ve allowed more points than any other team has scored by a healthy margin. My starting lineup this week:

Jayden Daniels
Saquon Barkley
Jahmyr Gibbs
Amon ra St Brown
Drake London
Travis Kelce
Christian McCaffrey
Chris Boswell
Giants D

I just can’t fathom how this is a last place team.

[Kodos]

I'm going back and forth between starting Jordan Love or Sam Darnold. I feel like Darnold has higher upside, but Love is going up against a weaker defense (Saints). My intuition is to go with Darnold, but my analytical side favors Love.

[albionmoonlight]

Saints will be starting Spencer Rattler, who has looked every bit of the 5th round rookie this season.

There's a decent chance that GB will get up by two scores early and just run clock for the entire second half.

(Another factor that has nothing to do with who will score more points is that GB plays on Monday night, so how much do you want to know whether you won by end of Sunday and how much do you want to have a rooting interest in Saints/Packers?)

[Kodos]

More info. My fantasy league has 2-game playoff rounds (Weeks 15 + 16). I already started the wrong guy (Darnold) last week, and am currently down 117 to 107.84. What albion said does make sense to me. I feel like Darnold is more likely to put up big numbers and be in a tight game.

Or I could go the total IU fanboy route and play Penix! (I do think he will re-awaken the Falcons offense against a weak Giants team.) However, I'm still in the running to get $320 if I win it all, so I won't be doing that.