2025-26 hot stove thread

[Lathum]

Diaz is a ring chasing bitch.

[Lathum]

Schwarber back to the Phils 5/150.

Frustrating the Phils will overpay but the Mets with the richest owner in sports won't for the best home run hitter in club history.

[Atocep]

Alonso to the Orioles for 5 years and $155 mil. No thanks. They can have fun with that deal.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Alonso to the Orioles for 5 years and $155 mil. No thanks. They can have fun with that deal.

I don't understand this thought process. Pete should retire as a Met for life. We were led to believe Cohen would be willing to overspend to keep guys or bring guys in, yet the Mets never even made an offer. Who cares if he drops off years 4-5 of the deal and either has to DH or be a part time player. It isn't a salary cap league. Guys with his power don't grow on trees, how many teams can pencil in a guy before the year who will hit 40 and drive in 100+, and now who is going to protect Soto? Literally the only guys who have more home runs since 2019 are Judge, Ohtani, and Schwarber. He is going to walk 150 times.

[Swaggs]

That seems like a pretty fair deal to me. What would you put the over/under on Alonso's homers over the next five years?

I'd figure he may have one 'injury' type of bad year, but he seems pretty durable and that his defense already drags his value down a ton (ie: already pretty bottomed out), so I think hitting 35 homers and having 3-4 WAR average over ages 31-36 is a fairly reasonable expectation.

If the average cost of WAR is between $8-10M (the last I looked) and you figure they didn't have to trade anything to get him (maybe a pick surrender/swap, I can never follow the current rules on FA and draft comp), it seems like a pretty reasonable way to make your team better if you have the room to pay him.

[Lathum]

Pete plays in every game, could he have a freak injury, of course, but he is as durable as they come.

People always go to his defense, or some stupid advanced nerd metrics, to downplay him but the bottom line is there are very few players who produce at his level. Throw in he is home grown and a fan favorite, it is inexcusable they didn't match the offer.

[Swaggs]

Yeah, I'm not trashing his defense. Just that 1B/DH seem to really get penalized on WAR for their defense.

Trust me, the Pirates have had plenty of slick fielding 1B over the years and I would much rather watch Alonso blast 40-50 homers a year than see a guy that is a good fielder hit 15 homers.

There is always a gamble on free agents, but Alonso seems super consistent and durable. I am honestly surprised he didn't get even more and certainly surprised the Mets didn't retain him for that amount.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Yeah, I'm not trashing his defense. Just that 1B/DH seem to really get penalized on WAR for their defense.

Trust me, the Pirates have had plenty of slick fielding 1B over the years and I would much rather watch Alonso blast 40-50 homers a year than see a guy that is a good fielder hit 15 homers.
.

Exactly. Even if Alonsos defense is responsible for 15-20 runs in a season he is still producing over 100 net runs.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Yeah, I'm not trashing his defense. Just that 1B/DH seem to really get penalized on WAR for their defense.

Trust me, the Pirates have had plenty of slick fielding 1B over the years and I would much rather watch Alonso blast 40-50 homers a year than see a guy that is a good fielder hit 15 homers.

There is always a gamble on free agents, but Alonso seems super consistent and durable. I am honestly surprised he didn't get even more and certainly surprised the Mets didn't retain him for that amount.

The mediocre plate discipline and old player skills for a guy in his 30s is unlikely to age well. Schwarber, for example, gives you walks and better power numbers. I don't like either player on a 5 year deal but I'd bet on Scwarber if I had to choose.

Strearns is avoiding the problems that plagued the Wilpon era and that was long term contracts for guys in their 30s. If Pete wanted to be a Met he could have been a Met. They made him a strong offer 2 years ago that he rejected. He wanted as much money as he could get and thats why he signed with Boras. I don't knock him for that, but there's a point where it doesn't make sense for the Mets and a 5 year deal for a non-elite player doesn't make sense for a team with a top 3 farm system. He's the type of player you want to keep but regret keeping a couple years later when he's no longer productive and blocking younger players.

Diaz decided he wanted to be a Dodger. The Mets had a slightly lower deal on the table and told him they were willing to go higher if someone came in with a stronger offer. He didnt give them a chance once the Dodgers offered.

What it comes down to is this group of players really hadn't won much and they're getting expensive and old. Its time to move on to a different/younger group with a roster construction that matches your GM's vision.

[RainMaker]

He's an elite hitter who is one of the few players in this league who can give you 40 homers every season. Sure it's an overpay long term, but sometimes you need to do that to secure a good player in the short term.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Strearns is avoiding the problems that plagued the Wilpon era and that was long term contracts for guys in their 30s. If Pete wanted to be a Met he could have been a Met. They made him a strong offer 2 years ago that he rejected. He wanted as much money as he could get and thats why he signed with Boras. I don't knock him for that, but there's a point where it doesn't make sense for the Mets and a 5 year deal for a non-elite player doesn't make sense for a team with a top 3 farm system. He's the type of player you want to keep but regret keeping a couple years later when he's no longer productive and blocking younger players.

.

IMO so much wrong in here.

If you are the Brewers then spot on. Contract length shouldn't even be an issue for this ownership. If Pete drops off and is blocking a young player they can cut him or reduce his role and eat the last 2 years. I don't see a world where when Pete hits home run #400 they regret signing him.

They absolutely should have at least matched the offer and if he walks, so be it. The Mets struggles last few years aren't because of Pete. Use some of that farm capital to go get a top line starter or two.

Also calling him nn elite is an absolute joke.

Luke Concic- 3rd in points since 2019
Josh Allen- 3rd most rushing TDs since 2019
Pastrnak- 3rd most goals in NHL since 2019
Pete Alonso- 3rd most homeruns since 2019

I would call this list elite.

[Lathum]

My daughter is legit inconsolable right now. You would think someone died. She wanted me to pick her up early from school.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Lathum

IMO so much wrong in here.

If you are the Brewers then spot on. Contract length shouldn't even be an issue for this ownership. If Pete drops off and is blocking a young player they can cut him or reduce his role and eat the last 2 years. I don't see a world where when Pete hits home run #400 they regret signing him.

They absolutely should have at least matched the offer and if he walks, so be it. The Mets struggles last few years aren't because of Pete. Use some of that farm capital to go get a top line starter or two.

Also calling him nn elite is an absolute joke.

Luke Concic- 3rd in points since 2019
Josh Allen- 3rd most rushing TDs since 2019
Pastrnak- 3rd most goals in NHL since 2019
Pete Alonso- 3rd most homeruns since 2019

I would call this list elite.

Pete has been elite in 2019, '21, '22, and '25. We can give him a pass for 2020, but in '24 he was awful while 2023 was pretty mediocre. Bad organizations made decisions based on emotion. Resigning Pete to a 5 year deal would be an emotional decision. With as smart as top front offices are today you're not going to be both good and keep popular players into their mid to late 30s. Tough decisions have to be made.

Hes definitely an elite power hitter, but the overall profile isn't elite and definitely doesnt project so moving forward. There's a reason the Orioles were the ones willing to give him 5 years. Bad franchises make bad decisions.

[Lathum]

The orioles who won 100 games a couple years ago and have some of the best young players in the game?

Guy never misses a game, how does that not profile well for the future?

I’ll concede he had a couple down years but was never surrounded with the kind of talent he is surrounded by now.

Bad organizations let a top 5 closer and a top 5 power hitter walk in a 48 hour span.

You also keep talking about the length as if it should matter. I’ll say it again. Length shouldn’t matter. Ownership can eat the last 2 years if need be and it isn’t a salary cap league. So who cares. Over the first three years of the deal he likely hits over 100 home runs and drives in 300+

[RainMaker]

121 wRC+ is awful? Yeah it was a down year for him but it wasn't awful by any means. He also made some adjustments last season that lowered his K rate and increased his barrels dramatically.

Maybe the guy regresses a bit but he's not going to be awful. Probably the worst case scenario is he turns into a good, not great hitter who is a defensive liability. Still a valuable piece even if overpaid a bit. Not many guys have that kind of power.

[Lathum]

Dola-‘I also just heard an interesting point from a talking head. All these people
Saying they didn’t win a title with him does that mean the Yankees should trade judge?

[Lathum]

So Mets let Pete walk, in large part claiming his defense, plus trade nimmo for semien claiming his defense, yet just signed Polanco, who has one career appearance at first base, to play that position.

[Lathum]

Kyle Tucker is using the Mets in a way that would make Arod proud.

[Ksyrup]

Sorry to see Suarez leave Philly. I assume this means Bichette will be even more of a priority.

Yankees have been awfully quiet. George must be rolling in his grave the way his kids have turned the Yankees into "win now, at any cost" to "win maybe, make lots of money."

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Sorry to see Suarez leave Philly. I assume this means Bichette will be even more of a priority.

Yankees have been awfully quiet. George must be rolling in his grave the way his kids have turned the Yankees into "win now, at any cost" to "win maybe, make lots of money."

I'm surprised Cashman is still there. They bet their entire off-season on resigning Bellinger and it looks like they dropped out of the running because he won't come off of his demand for a 7 year deal.

[Lathum]

Tucker to the Dodgers. What a joke.

[JPhillips]

For 60 mil AAV.

[Ksyrup]

It is so crazy how quickly people go with the anti-player sentiment - "they can accept a few million less, look at how little money poor people make, they'll survive" - while giving a complete pass to the billionaires running the teams. You'd think fans would be more willing to hold their teams' feet to the fire to try to win rather than using the teams trying to win to blame the players. I almost feel like this is a set-up - with the Dodgers involved in the conspiracy - to amp up the salary cap discussion going into this season. Seems pretty strategic to me.

I'd expect we won't see baseball for quite some time after October.

[Mota]

I don't think the issue is with Tucker being paid, I think it's that the Dodgers with unlimited money, getting to outbid everybody over and over again.

[Ksyrup]

I quickly looked at an MLB Reddit thread about Tucker's signing and like 75% was anti-player and "we need a salary cap" and the other 25% was anti-Dodgers or specifically, allowing deferred money to abuse the system.

[JPhillips]

Personally, I don't have any problem with Tucker getting his bank. If reports are correct, with the bonus structure it looks even better for him, maybe 150 over two years before the opt-out.

I'm just surprised he's the guy to set new pay records. He's very good, but I just don't think of him as a generational player.

[Lathum]

The deferred money is complete BS and shouldn't be allowed.

I don't blame the Dodgers or the players. They want to win and the players are getting paid. I just think it is bad for the sport. The reality is just about every owner could do what the Dodgers are doing but at this point the Dodgers have such a head start that everyone wants to ring chase.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Personally, I don't have any problem with Tucker getting his bank. If reports are correct, with the bonus structure it looks even better for him, maybe 150 over two years before the opt-out.

I'm just surprised he's the guy to set new pay records. He's very good, but I just don't think of him as a generational player.

It's short term. He's not a generational player. They get the long-term record-breaking deals.

This is no different than the next good QB who happens to be up for FA gets the next "record-setting" deal.

[Lathum]

Bichette to the Mets. Really excited for this deal. He is a great fit for them. I suspect Baty or Vientos are going to get traded for a SP or OF. Maybe Duran

[RainMaker]

All the owners are billionaires who could afford to do what the Dodgers are doing. Less of an option for the Pirates but there is no reason the Cubs, White Sox, Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Astros, Jays, Rangers, and a few other teams can't do the same stuff.

This is a case of all the owners who are in this for profit while one owner is in it to win titles. Why fault the team trying to win?

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Bichette to the Mets. Really excited for this deal. He is a great fit for them. I suspect Baty or Vientos are going to get traded for a SP or OF. Maybe Duran

All the smoke was the Phillies. I assume losing out on Tucker forced the Mets to go big on Bichette - although again, here's another guy not signing a long-term deal.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

It's short term. He's not a generational player. They get the long-term record-breaking deals.

This is no different than the next good QB who happens to be up for FA gets the next "record-setting" deal.

But that hasn't been how baseball has operated. The ceilings, whether total or AAV, have only been broken by the best players.

[Ksyrup]

You've got a labor fight coming up. No one knows what the landscape is going to look like and what that is going to do to teams with recently signed long-term contracts - will they end up being a steal, or an anchor?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Bichette to the Mets. Really excited for this deal. He is a great fit for them. I suspect Baty or Vientos are going to get traded for a SP or OF. Maybe Duran

I think Baty sticks as a platoon utility player at 2nd and 3rd. Vientos, Mauricio, and Acuna are probably going to be dangled for an outfielder or starter. Someone like Nootbaar, Donovan, or Peralta. The Cardinals asking price for Donovan has been absurd, though.

They really needed another right handed bat. Polanco, Simien, Lindor, Bichette is a pretty solid defensive infield with some offensive skills as well. Baty in a platoon role is a nice bat and plus defender as well.

Center is still a concern and I don't think there's a realistic solution out there that doesn't involve waiting on the development of Benge or Jett Williams. There just aren't many plus centerfielders out there right now.

[Atocep]

Nice to see Andruw Jones and Beltran both get in the HoF. Both are deserving.

[Atocep]

Acuna and a minor league pitcher for Robert is a good deal for both parties. If the Mets can fix Robert's bat it's a steal, otherwise he gives them a plus defensive centerfielder.

Acuna's offensive upside is limited but he has value as a utility player and on the bases.

[Lathum]

I like the Robert deal. He will be surrounded with talent and is a great defensive player and base stealer. There really was no spot on this roster for Acuna, and certainly not as an every day player. I hope he becomes a full time player in Chicago and wish him well

[GrantDawg]

Y'all keep saying Acuna and I am thinking Ronald Acuna and that you have done some drugs.

[Atocep]

Peralta for Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat.

Another good trade for both sides. Peralta fills a huge need for a front of the rotation starter. I like Jett Williams but there's as lot of risk in his profile and there really isn't a place on the roster for him right now. Of the Mets big 3 pitching prospects Sproat has the lowest ceiling and is probably a 3ish starter.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Peralta for Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat.

Another good trade for both sides. Peralta fills a huge need for a front of the rotation starter. I like Jett Williams but there's as lot of risk in his profile and there really isn't a place on the roster for him right now. Of the Mets big 3 pitching prospects Sproat has the lowest ceiling and is probably a 3ish starter.

People calling in the FAN and freaking out. It always cracks me up when people go nuts about trading prospects for top line MLB talent. Sure there will be some PCA deals, but people went nuts when they traded Kelenic and that worked out pretty well.

I'll always take trading prospects for MLB talent. Especially top level MLB talent.

[Atocep]

The Mets need to get to the point where the farm system is feeding cost controlled contributors that allow you to spend big on top talent. Right now Cohen is just spending through the transition period while the farm system is built out. Jett Williams is still expendable though. He's a shortstop and Lindor isn't going anywhere. Williams is also undersized and walks a lot with surprising pop for his size, but he also swings and misses quite a bit. If he doesn't work out at short then he either lands at 2nd or has to transition to center. So there's need some risk in the overall profile and his struggles in AAA are a red flag.

The Mets desperately needed a frontline starter and Peralta fills that need. The Mets also have a glut of mid rotation starters that aren't efficient enough to pitch deep into games, which is exactly what Sproat profiles as. Out of the 6 Mets that made the BA top 100 prospect list, those 2 are the ones I would have been most willing to move for an impact arm.

The overall roster, as it stands, is better than last year's. Durability is a concern for a few guys, but they still have guys like Baty and Mauricio for depth and Benge isn't far away. Another outfielder would be nice, but this is probably the deepest the Mets have been in years and a far more balanced lineup with Soto being the only minus defender.

[Swaggs]

This is a great deal for the Mets. Peralta is an excellent under the radar pickup at a good price and, at worst, they can get a season out of him and get a comp pick next year. He's coming into a contract year, so he should be motivated to have a big season

Getting Myers was a good move, too. He should easily make the opening day roster and seemed like he was better as a reliever than starter, but even then was serviceable as a starter.

[JPhillips]

Yeah, I like Myers as a deep bullpen/spot starter guy. He should have some value given the lack of depth in the Mets staff.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Lathum

People calling in the FAN and freaking out. It always cracks me up when people go nuts about trading prospects for top line MLB talent. Sure there will be some PCA deals, but people went nuts when they traded Kelenic and that worked out pretty well.

I'll always take trading prospects for MLB talent. Especially top level MLB talent.

Every time it's John Smoltz and Doyle Alexander. Every. Time.


Or


Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields. Oof. That one......


There have been plenty of bad trades over the years that involved top line talent.

[Ksyrup]

To me, Smoltz for Alexander is the epitome of what a youth-for-experience trade is supposed to be. Alexander was nails for the Tigers and got them into the playoffs. If the Tigers knew what Smoltz would become, maybe they don't try so hard to win in 1987 and let the chips fall where they may, but Alexander was everything they expected and more.

You can't really predict someone is going to be a HOFer. His numbers were pretty bad in the minors, I think, and in that first season in Atlanta. And Alexander went 9-0 with like a 1.50 ERA after the trade in the regular season - but did get lit up in the playoffs, as I recall.

[Swaggs]

Pirates fans always complain about the Chris Archer deal and it was bad, but fans will act like it set the team back for generations and it was a historically lopsided deal.

Archer only had 1.2 WAR for the Pirates and was injured a lot. He had a (at the time) contract that was seen as controllable with option years, but with his injuries and him sitting out the Covid season, they ended up not picking up and he only played parts of 2 seasons.

They gave up some really highly regarded young players in Tyler Glasnow (8.7 WAR in 6 years with the Rays and a little over 12 total since leaving the Pirates), Austin Meadows had a couple good years but ended up with 6.2 WAR for the Rays, and Shane Baz got traded this offseason and he is at 3.1 WAR in 5 seasons. Bad and Glasnow also both missed a ton of time with TJ surgery. So, a total of 18 WAR in 14 combined seasons.

At the beginning of the same season, the Pirates traded Andrew McCutchen to the Giants for Bryan Reynolds and Kyle Crick. At the time, it was largely seen as a salary dump. Cutch played a partial season in SF and had a 1.7 WAR with the Giants. Reynolds, who had been a 2nd rounder but was seen as a fringe top 10 prospect for the Giants, is still active and at 21.1 in 7 seasons and Crick was injured a lot but had a 1.0 WAR in parts of 4 seasons (and is most well known for punching Felipe Vazquez in the clubhouse right before it came out that he has SAed a minor).

A good season from Peralta may well exceed anything that any of those prospects ever do in the majors and the fact that they will get a comp pick if he doesn't resign, which will basically be another lottery ticket of a similar quality player, and Myers on top makes it a pretty clear win. I don't hate the trade for the Brewers if they think the guys they got will develop and are cutting salaries, but if the Pirates could have traded someone like Termar Johnson and a pitching prospect for Peralta, and know they can get a comp pick and Myers, I would have been all for it.

[Atocep]

I think the Peralta trade looks even better after the Gore trade. Gore has more club control but is a full tier below Peralta as a pitcher. 3 guys that have made top 100 lists and 2 more solid prospects is a crazy haul for a mid rotation starter.

[Lathum]

Terrance Gore passes away at 34 due to complications from what was supposed to be a routine surgery.

[Ksyrup]

Tony Clark is expected to resign from the MLBPA. Is Donald Fehr still alive? Maybe they hire Boras lol!

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Tony Clark is expected to resign from the MLBPA. Is Donald Fehr still alive? Maybe they hire Boras lol!

They were investigating him for corruption and uncovered an affair with his sister in law, whom he hired to work for the union.

It looks like the corruption ran deep and has ties to former NFLPA head DeMaurice Smith. Clark and Smith had started a company, OneTeam, that the MLBPA and NFLPA were both paying millions to in bonuses and shit.