Yes, I agree as well. While I don't think we should get hung up on whether or not 2K can be profitable with a new 2K football game, I do think its highly possible.
Take Madden 64 for the N64, for example. EA didn't secure the NFL liscense that year (not sure which). And if my memory serves me correctly, the game still sold pretty well. I think that is a notable example.
Another notable example, in my estimation, is Blitz: The league. Its definitely over the top football. There's no arguing that. And its not really an alternative to Madden, but that's my point. I think any strong alternative to Madden will sell well. Because, right now, we don't have a choice. Consumers want choice. Heck, I don't know how many times I've heard that even EA fans don't like the whole exclusivity concept. Because a lot of them have in the forefront of their minds, the fact that 2K has the exclusive 3rd party rights for baseball. I'd like to think that 2K did that as a direct slap in the face of EA for gaing NFL exlusivity. So even some EA fans don't like the fact that EA has those rights.
I also think that a hefty portion of those who bought the 2K football series in '04 will come back for more. Since the exclusivity is pretty well known by now, I think just for the sake of having an alternative to Madden, people will at least give it a shot. Once they have played it, I think they'll be hooked. Just as I was and still is to this very day...