Back to the "Braves Way" (OOTP 17)

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The Braves Way, an OOTP 17 Dynasty

Essay by Mark Bradley

John Coppolella never played much baseball. He was the football manager at Notre Dame. He graduated with a degree in business and had a six-figure job with Intel waiting. He accepted a paid internship with the Yankees instead. His parents were not pleased.

In 2006, Braves general manager John Schuerholz hired Coppolella to be the team’s director of baseball operations. Coppolella is among that generation of baseball lovers drawn to process above pine tar. The guy known as “Coppy” was working under his idol.

Eight years later, Schuerholz— then the Braves’ president— essentially charged Coppolella with the task of razing and restoring a franchise that had fallen into what Schuerholz regarded as rack and ruin under Frank Wren, who’d succeeded him as GM in October 2007. Not that this collapse was entirely evident to the outside eye: From Opening Day 2010 through Sept. 17, 2014, Wren’s Braves won more games than any other National League team.

But this was how deeply the Braves soured on Wren. On Sept. 22, 2013, his team clinched the National League East, marking Atlanta’s first division title since the record run of 14 in succession ended in 2005. On Sept. 22, 2014, he was fired. Schuerholz opened the press conference by saying, “We have terminated Frank Wren.” Terminated? Was this Apocalypse Now?

The Braves did not thank Wren for his diligent service. They did not wish the best for him and his family. Later that day, Schuerholz fired Jeff Wren, Frank’s brother and a Braves scout, via voicemail. (On assignment, Jeff Wren was in the shower at his hotel.) Seven weeks later, they traded Kyle Wren, a minor-league outfielder and Frank’s son, to Milwaukee.

(Footnote: The Braves wanted to fire Frank Wren on Sunday, Sept. 21, but were informed that Kyle was scheduled to receive an award in pregame ceremonies. It was decided that firing his dad on such a day would be, you know, cold-blooded. So the Braves waited until Monday to be cold-blooded.)

Into the breach stepped John Hart, lured from his Orlando home and MLB Network studios to be president of baseball operations. The corporate stance was that Hart, who’d done great work in Cleveland in the ’90s, would serve as the new public face and as Coppolella’s mentor; in-house, it was generally held that Coppy— officially the assistant GM— would soon be Top Cat. Sure enough, Coppolella was named GM on Oct. 1, 2015— even as many in the organization admitted he’d been doing GM things for the past year.

Three days after his promotion, the Braves closed the season at 67-95, their worst record in a quarter-century. In two years they’d gone from 96 wins to 95 losses, but the higher-ups were happier with the guy who’d presided over the 95 losses than with his predecessor, whose sin was in not winning to specification. As Schuerholz said of Wren’s dismissal: “We want to get back to doing things the Braves’ Way.

Spoiler

OOTP 17 / Setup:
- MLB QuickStart League
- Full Minors (AAA through Rookie Leagues) … Roster Limits: AAA 25, AA 25, A 25, S A 30, R 35
- Coaching and Scouting On (20-80 Scale, Stars Off)
- Player Development Evaluation AI Settings Here
- Trade Difficulty: Hard, favoring neither veterans nor prospects
- Ghost Players: Off
- Dynamic League: Off
* - AI Trading & Injury frequencies will be adjusted according to the month

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2016 Atlanta Braves - Starting Pitchers

Julio Teheran, RHP
There was more virtual ink spilled trying to figure out Teheran’s season than over any other Braves pitcher in 2015. Atlanta’s former top prospect signed a six-year extension in February 2014 and responded by establishing himself as a borderline no. 1 starter with a sub-three ERA that year. Fade out happily on 2014, fade back in on mid-June 2015 and you see a 5.07 ERA. Teheran's lopsided home-road splits were analyzed to death, but all that did was muddy the fact that he couldn’t command his fastball or get bite on his slider. Smash cut to August and he’s throwing from the first-base side of the rubber instead of the middle, spotting his four-seam fastball while throwing it with more conviction and getting sharper break on his slider. He even improved the feel for his changeup, which helped slow the bashing from both left-handed hitters and switch-hitting bloggers. Closing montage: seven total runs allowed in his final six starts. Stick a Post-it next to Teheran’s season line to remind you that development isn’t always linear.

Matt Wisler, RHP
As with Hector Olivera, the Braves are nothing if not persistent. They wanted Wisler badly, but swung and missed when they dealt Justin Upton to San Diego. When the Padres called back in April, the Braves took another hack and this time connected in the Craig Kimbrel trade. Wisler has the prototypical no. 3 starter’s arsenal: a plus-potential fastball, plus-potential slider, developing changeup that could be above average and a fringy curveball. His greatest present attribute is plus control, which is a good bit ahead of his command, and that’s why he’ll occasionally get rocked as he matures. He had his share of growing pains over 19 starts in his major-league debut, but he finished strong and looked increasingly comfortable. There's no sexy, ace upside here, but Wisler is mid-rotation worthy and should be for a long time.

Williams Perez, RHP
If Perez’s sinker sank any more, it’d submerge like a submarine in the South Seas. If it had any more downward movement, it’d head underground and become God Emperor of Dune. What we’re trying to tell you is that Perez gets a lot of movement on his fastball, which is why he threw it 72 percent of the time. He earned a shot in the thin Braves rotation, but his 20 starts were an up-and-down affair depending on whether he could command his fastball that day. Perez is, as you surely guessed, effective when locating the pitch down in the zone and on the corners, but the question is whether that will happen often enough for him to remain a starter. Best guess is that his future lies in middle relief, but he’s still young, so dream what dreams you will.

Jhoulys Chacin, RHP
Second on the Rockies’ career ERA list, Chacin was cut from the team last year as mechanical and velocity concerns piled up. (And when the Rockies are ready to cut ties, then oh man.) On came the minor-league deals: first with the Indians, where he opted out after a month in Columbus, then to Arizona and the promise of sixth-man shuttle service. Success showed up in small doses, and he added a cutter that got strong whiff and groundball action and turned him into a true six-pitch pitcher. He also recovered one of the 2 mph that his sinker lost in 2014.

Bud Norris, RHP

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2016 Atlanta Braves - Bullpen

Jason Grilli, RHP
The supposedly simple act of covering first base ended Grilli’s season and kept him in Atlanta longer than anticipated when he ruptured his left Achilles on his way to the bag in July. Before the injury, his stuff was sharp, he was throwing strikes and he was among the league leaders in saves. Which meant that, given the Braves’ place in the standings, he was extremely likely to be dealt to a contender. Instead, he’s forced to work his way back at 39 and prove, once again, that he can pitch in the late innings.

Arodys Vizcaino, RHP
Vizcaino was one of the bright spots of Atlanta’s season, which may seem odd considering he lost 80 games after getting popped for Stanozolol, that most hilarious of steroids. Well, hilarious right up until the moment it shows up on the report of your pee test. The Braves' patience (in a sense, anyway; they were the ones who traded him away in 2012 before reacquiring him last offseason) finally paid off when Vizcaino established himself as a late-innings reliever down the stretch. He maintained upper-90s velocity, kept it in the zone and struck out 27 percent of batters faced while getting closing experience. He's been around forever, but check the age column above: There's still reason to hope for further refinements in his game. Vizcaino’s injury report still follows him like a puppy who misses its mom, but with a cleaner delivery that cuts down on wasted momentum and tightens his release point, he’s finally on track to take that puppy to the no-kill shelter and leave it there for someone else to adopt. That's a metaphor for “stay healthy.”

Jim Johnson, RHP
Investing in relievers is like buying a two-pack of Starburst. Math dictates you have a 75 percent shot at hitting on one red or pink or at least finding a replacement-level orange, but goddamn if you don’t come up double yellows time and again. Johnson was cherry with the Braves, posting a 2.25 ERA in 49 innings and resuming his former closer role, but after the Dodgers acquired him as part of the Alex Wood deal, he turned out to be a total lemon, surrendering 21 runs in 18 innings and failing to make the postseason roster.

Eric O’Flaherty, LHP

Jose Ramirez, RHP
Armed with a 100 mph fastball and only a cursory idea of where it was going, Ramirez produced more baserunners than outs in his cup of coffee last season. Unlike most big-armed hurlers with control problems, Ramirez works with three pitches and actually has a decent track record of throwing strikes. His tumbling changeup in particular fooled a couple of decent hitters last September. While neither the change nor his slider projects as the kind of weapon that portends a future in the very back of the bullpen, both can be effective offerings when he locates effectively. Still, for a rookie who will be 26 on Opening Day, there’s an uncomfortably large gap between that rosy projection and his current strike-throwing abilities.

Alexi Ogando, RHP

Chris Withrow, RHP

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2016 Atlanta Braves - Hitters

Tyler Flowers, C - Bats: R
For a guy whose most important defensive responsibility is shaping the strike zone, Flowers seems strangely powerless to control it as a hitter. He has a little thump but strikes out way too much to make substantial use of it, and he's come in on the wrong side of a .300 OBP four years running. All that said, he's an excellent framer and only a slightly below-average thrower, so the minimal value he provides at the plate is gravy, anyway.

A.J. Pierzynski, C - Bats: L
The Braves signed Pierzynski to groom Christian Bethancourt behind the plate and help guide a young pitching staff. Instead, he took Bethancourt’s spot when the young catcher struggled, became like an extra coach on a young Braves team and, oh yeah, had his most productive season at the plate since 2003 (by TAv). The best symbol of how the season went for both Pierzynski and the Braves? How about 205 plate appearances in the cleanup spot after just 152 PAs in that spot in his entire career prior to 2015. Maybe taking a dip in the Fountain of Youth kept him cool during the hot Atlanta summer.

Freddie Freeman, 1B - Bats: L
Freeman’s season of frustration was a microcosm of Atlanta’s year as a whole. His two major injuries affected his right wrist and right oblique; both lingered, and both hampered. The wrist injury was said to be a bone bruise that he felt from June through the end of the year, and the oblique strain came just nine days after he returned from the disabled list for the initial wrist injury. Considering what he dealt with, it’s impressive Freeman produced like he did— like they say, he could fall out of (a hospital) bed and hit .276. His ideal scenario is a clean bill of health and a return to 20-plus homers as Atlanta’s lineup anchor, face of the franchise and all-around good hugger.

Nick Johnson, 2B - Bats: L

Jace Peterson, 2B - Bats: R
Major-league teams know what they have with Peterson at this point. He has no carrying tool but does enough to be a big leaguer based on some contact ability and a grinder mentality that might tie to his days as a defensive back in college. He started strong in his rookie season for the Braves before wearing down late and getting beat by advanced pitching that became familiar with him. Peterson set a nice table for a while, and even got creative with the dishes by hitting some home runs, but his overall skill set is more suited to a utility role. He plays a good second base, can play multiple positions in a pinch and is an outstanding teammate.

Adonis Garcia, 3B - Bats: R
This Adonis is the God of the Opposite-Field Home Run: His first six dingers in the major leagues were to center or right field. The Braves had picked up the Cuban as a minor-league free agent after the Yankees released him less than a week before the season opener. It proved to be another shrewd move for Atlanta’s scouting department, as Garcia proceeded to show plus power at Triple-A and carried it to double-digit home runs in his first major-league season. He’s the definition of a true pinch-hitter, seeing opposite-hand pitchers well and staying aggressive on fastballs early, so, despite his late debut, he could carve out a multi-year career on National League benches as the guy who makes you think twice before calling on your LOOGY.

Hector Olivera, 3B - Bats: R
The Braves wanted Olivera. They tried during the free-agent process but came up short to the Dodgers’ Bag of Holding full of money. When the opportunity came around again at the trade deadline, they used a resource in which they were a bit richer: Young talent, including Jose Peraza and Alex Wood, Olivera soon made his major-league debut, playing 24 games down the stretch and at least flashing the skills that drew teams to him in the first place. His swing has some length and he tends to bar out by hitting around the ball, but his inside-out approach should produce consistent contact to all fields with over-the-fence pop to the pull side. His third-base defense was hit or miss, but he also lacked reps at that point. The Braves have a lot riding on Olivera, and they expect him to be a middle-of-the-order hitter.

Erick Aybar, SS - Bats: S
Aybar’s defensive reputation has outpaced the metrics for years now: His FRAA has finished in the red in four straight seasons. The defenders of his glove are receding as he ages, just like his utility to a contending club is receding with his offense. Aybar’s secondary skills completely vanished in 2015, resulting in the third-worst walk rate and the third-lowest home run frequency in the American League. He has the bat-to-ball talents to provide a .270 average on the regular (he’s only finished below that mark in a full season once), but putting 37 percent of the pitches you see in play, as Aybar did to rank second in the league last year, carries little value with such weak results on contact.

Ender Inciarte, CF - Bats: L
Inciarte had the league’s sixth-best contact rate (89 percent), resulting in the eighth-lowest strikeout rate (10 percent) and the ninth-best batting average. His defense and baserunning polish his profile to a high shine. That Atlanta was able to get two top prospects and Inciarte for Shelby Miller, who finished just 0.5 WARP ahead of Inciarte last year, is why the resounding reaction from both inside and outside the game was that the Braves pulled off a coup.

Drew Stubbs, CF - Bats: R

Nick Markakis, RF - Bats: R
The Braves’ rebuilding process has been a straightforward affair, but the one move that drew some confusion, to be charitable, was the Markakis signing, which totaled $ 44 million over four years starting in his age-31 season. The Braves like Markakis for his quiet confidence and leadership, and they see him as someone the younger players can look to as an example of how to carry themselves on and off the field. Markakis' on-field value remains up for discussion. His offseason neck surgery cut short his preparation time, and that was the reason given for his lack of power. There are two problems with that line of reasoning. First, his 2015 ISO of .080 isn't that far from his 2013-14 ISO of .097, and as far as we know he hasn't been having neck surgery every year. Second, his 2015 swing was extremely short and level, geared for contact, not power. On the other hand, he posted his best OBP since 2010 and $ 11 million per year doesn't buy so very much anymore.

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2016 Atlanta Braves’ Manager - Fredi Gonzalez
After a surprisingly competitive first half that saw the Braves go 42-47, Gonzalez and his coaching staff received extensions through the 2016 season that included a club option for 2017. The Braves celebrated Gonzalez’s fortune by going 25-48 in the second half and igniting tanking allegations. If the Braves intended to lose games, nobody told Gonzalez. He continued to field lineups as good as could have been expected given the roster and his at-times odd predilections— remember, he used to hit Melvin Upton Jr. leadoff when he wanted to win. Likewise, he did the best he could with the majors’ worst bullpen— a leaky mess that housed myriad waiver claims— and a rotation that featured Williams Perez and Ryan Weber, among others. In short, the Braves’ problem was talent, not effort. What the second half proved was not that the Braves had pulled the plug, but that Gonzalez’s predicament is hands down one of the oddest in the game. Typically, teams fire their manager before moving from competitive mode to a full rebuild— in part because a disappointing season tends to trigger the switch. The Braves had that disappointing season— see 2014— and even changed front office personnel, yet nonetheless kept Gonzalez around. That’s rare, and many would argue pointless, since there’s little chance he survives the entire rebuild process.

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BA's Top 10 Atlanta Prospects for 2016

Dansby Swanson, SS (A+ - Carolina) - Bats: R
On his first day on the field, the best Swanson since Ron took one to the face from fellow high-priced acquisition Yoan Lopez. He reportedly got up and said, “That’s a pretty good first day, huh?” Love this kid. While he may lack the impact tools of previous 1: 1 selections Carlos Correa and Gerrit Cole, Swanson should contribute ably on both sides of the ball. He has a short stroke that enables him to generate plenty of hard contact, auguring an above-average hit tool down the line. He'll never be mistaken for a power hitter, but his swing should get him into the double digits for homers, and his plus speed will help him both on the bases and in the field. He won't be a premium defender at shortstop, but should last at the position, and he has college experience at the keystone should he need to move over. Swanson’s greatest strength may be his makeup. He propelled both his college and short-season squads to championship series last season, routinely stayed 20 minutes or more after games to sign autographs and has gone on record saying he'd like to make world the better place. Lest he bite off more than he can chew, he should start with the Braves franchise.


Sean Newcomb, LHP (AA - Mississippi)
Half of the prospect return in the Andrelton Simmons trade, Newcomb’s fastball is the big weapon in his three-pitch arsenal. His slider and changeup can develop into solid offerings, and there's hope that his command can get to average, which would allow the whole profile to play up. His frame certainly looks like it can carry a starter's load, which is another way of saying “he's really friggin’ big.” Newcomb was the Angels’ best prospect before the trade, and he’s the Braves’ best prospect now. That’s how it works when you’re a lefty starter who can touch the high 90s.

Aaron Blair, RHP (AAA - Gwinnett)
The prospect world is funny sometimes. Someone like Blair, who was drafted with the 36th-overall pick, has performed as expected thus far, which is to say: extremely well. You don’t get drafted at that spot without talent, especially if you’re not signing at a discount. (Blair got $ 1.435 million.) He can hum a fastball in as high as 96 mph, and will generally sit 91-94 with movement. He’s flashed plus with both of his secondaries (curve, change), is consistently average or better with both and will mix in a slider as well. His command suffers at the behest of the heavy movement on his heater and he’ll walk around league-average totals, but he doesn’t lack for control. So where is the hype? He lacks the reputation of former organization-mate Archie Bradley (though he’s got a good résumé) and the panache of Braden Shipley (though he’ll work with three plus pitches at times), but could be a better prospect than either of them. There might not be as much ceiling with Blair as there is with the other players, but don’t take that to mean there isn’t any at all. Blair could be a mid-rotation starter, and he could be that as soon as mid-2016.

Hector Olivera, 3B (MLB - Atlanta) - Bats: R

Kolby Allard, LHP (R - Danville)
If there’s a single example of Atlanta’s renewed mindset of targeting and developing high school pitching, the mindset on which the Braves built much of their previous success, it could end up being Allard. The California lefty was seen as perhaps the top high school arm in the 2015 draft class before a stress reaction in his back cut short his senior year. He fell to the Braves at no. 14 overall, signed for just above slot and was moved along slowly in his first pro season, with the expectation that the reins would be loosened soon. Allard works in the low to mid-90s with life from a smooth delivery, paired with a biting curveball that projects as plus. He needs to further develop his changeup, but his solid command profile and effortless motion provide a foundation for optimism.

Ozzie Albies, SS (A+ - Carolina) - Bats: S
There were whispers entering 2015 that Albies could become a top Braves prospect; well, here we are. He has such a loose, easy feel for both baseball and life that you can’t help but love the kid. He has an advanced ability to barrel baseballs based on loose hands that find pitches in all quadrants of the zone, and he takes what pitchers give him by shooting contact to all fields. He does this from both sides of the plate, although it comes a little more naturally as a lefty. He occasionally lacks extension through the ball, which limits hard contact, and his power is well below average, but his plus-plus speed could manufacture “power,” adding extra bases on balls in the gaps. Albies also has the skills to play shortstop at a high level: His arm is strong enough for the left side, but the key is again his hands, which eat grounders alive. The bow on the physical package is that his bright personality is a positive influence in the clubhouse and his great work ethic should allow him to continue adjusting and improving as he climbs the ladder.

Touki Toussaint, RHP (A - Rome)
Rarely is a baseball decision so far off the grid that the industry collectively scratches its head, but Arizona did its best to get there by essentially selling Toussaint to Atlanta for the $ 10 million represented by the Braves' willingness to take on Bronson Arroyo’s contract. Toussaint remains crudo-raw, but when he pulls the talent together at moments here and there, it's enough to make a grown scout blush. He’s an elite athlete with arm strength to die for. The fastball ranges widely around the zone and on the gun, but ticks up to 96 mph, and Toussaint has shown the ability to sit 93-95 for a couple of innings. The curve induces expletives in the stands and the batter's box: It's one of the best in the minors when it works, and has double-plus potential. Add feel for a plus-potential changeup and you get a no. 2 ceiling. He won't leave his teens until midway through this year, though the vagaries of cutoff dates mean that we call this his age-20 season. Accordingly, Toussaint has a long way to go to reach his ceiling; the path starts with improving his command and tightening up his mechanics.

Austin Riley, 3B (A - Rome) - Bats: R

Max Fried, LHP (A - Rome)
The Braves acquired Fried while he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, so occasional reminders throughout the year that he was in the system would have been helpful to remember just how deep Atlanta's minor-league pitching runs. Fried's talent when healthy is undeniable. He has feel for three pitches that could all reach plus, projects for a solid command profile and has tons of projection in his frame. The consensus since he was drafted seventh overall in 2012 is that Fried is a sure-fire top-five left-handed pitching prospect, and he was in the running for the top spot before his elbow barked in 2014. There’s always risk coming off of arm surgery, but age and aptitude are on his side.

Mallex Smith, CF (AAA - Gwinnett) - Bats: L
Teams generally like the players they acquire (seeing as how they acquired them and all), but there seems to be a special kind of joy in the Braves organization for Smith. For one, he’s mature beyond his years. Second, he has that don’t-blink-or-you’ll-miss-me speed that produced eye-popping stolen-base totals in 2014 and continued against more advanced catchers in 2015. The question is how much Smith will hit and whether it’s enough to lead off every day. He’s put up a fine batting average at every stop, and his swing is short and quick to the zone, but he needs to avoid the empty average that comes with slap hitting if he's to be a weapon, rather than an adequacy, on offense. On the other side of the ball, he’s taking steps to shore up the raw parts of his game in center field and should be fine long term.

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May 1st, 2016 - The Atlanta Braves failed to start the 2016 season off with a bang. The 9-15 Braves are 6 games back from the NL East’s top spot, which belongs to the 15-9 Washington Nationals. The offense ranks 12th in the NL with runs scored (84) while the pitching ranks 14th in ERA (the starters ranked 14th while the bullpen ranked 11th). An injury to SP Joulys Chacin allowed SP Daniel Winkler to be promoted from Gwinnett, where he was absolutely lights out in the month of April (5 GS, 32.1 IP, 1.67 ERA, 17 BB, 24 K). A struggling pair of arms in the bullpen, RP Chris Withrow and RP Alexi Ogando have been optioned and in return, the Braves purchased the contracts of RP Rob Wooten and RP Ryan Weber from Gwinnett.

[bryceisdabest]

Following. Nats fan interested to see what you can do