2016 NBA Finals Preview
By Adam Jones
Golden State Warriors. Cleveland Cavaliers. Steph Curry. LeBron James. Winner take all, best of 7 series.
Heard those before?
It's one year later, and the NBA Finals sees the same matchup. The top-seeded Golden State Warriors, this time, the record-tying Golden State Warriors, against the second-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers. Just like last year. The Cavaliers beat the Celtics in the first round on their way here, just like last year. The Warriors beat the Rockets in 5 on
their way here, just like last year. It's all the same faces in all the same places—Oracle Arena for the first two, fifth, and seventh games, the latter two if necessary; Quicken Loans Arena for the third, fourth, and potential 6th game. Last year, it was Golden State hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy in Quicken Loans. That's not such a certain result anymore.
A lot has changed behind the scenes from last year. Kyrie Irving figures to be healthy this time around; Kevin Love, sidelined from Round 1 onwards last year, most certainly is. Steph Curry is back to back MVP, and the Warriors as a team tied the NBA season record for most wins. The conference finals, this time around, was more of a slugfest: Golden State scraped by San Antonio in a tense game 7; Cleveland, who swept the upstart Hawks last year in the conference finals, needed 6 games to defeat this year's upstart top seed, the Toronto Raptors. Last year, LeBron came into the finals smoking hot; this year, he has—dare I say it—underwhelmed until now. Perhaps the Finals is just the switch he needs flipped to return to his elite level.
All of that backstory, each team's respective history, flies out the window in the face of the brutal, no-holds-barred, winner-take-all series that awaits. Performance good or poor in previous games matters not; the NBA Finals are not won with spectacular performances in the conference finals. They are won with talent, skill, and smarts. They're won with blood, sweat, and tears. Get the mops ready, because this series is primed to have all of them.
Why the Warriors Will Win
The Warriors will win because that's what they do. They do it better than all but one team in history, and there's a reason for that. The Warriors can score from any position on the court; every single starter can step up and take over a game if need be. They play tough defense, they shoot better than any team in history, they rebound well, they were the best-ever team at home during the regular season, they've beaten the Cavs in the same situation once already... as long as the Warriors stay the Warriors, they will win.
Why the Cavaliers Will Win
Last year, LeBron James gave the Warriors their best run for their money—without the Big 3 there to help. This time around, Kevin Love is playing very well, Kyrie Irving is fairly healthy (knock on wood), and the pieces the Cavaliers added in (sharpshooter Kyle Korver, staunch defender Thabo Sefalosha, and playoff veteran Tiago Splitter) have all performed as necessary. If Tristan Thompson and Matthew Dellavedova can recapture last year's playoff form, there's only one question mark left for the Cavs. And it's pretty hard to see LeBron James under performing this time, as he enters his 6th NBA Finals in a row.
By the Numbers
The Cavaliers enter the Finals with the best winning percentage, .800, in this year's playoffs (12-3). They also allow fewer points per game (98.5 to 102.1 for the Warriors). But Golden State scores at a far higher clip, averaging 108.9 PPG to the Cavaliers' 103.1. The Warriors are hauling in the more rebounds per game (49) and dishing more assists (~29). The Warriors are led in points by Steph Curry (24.2 PPG); in rebounds by Draymond Green (11.4 RPG); and in assists by Curry (6.2 APG). The Cavaliers are led in points by LeBron James (23.2 PPG); in rebounds by Kevin Love (12.7 RPG); and in assists by James (6.5 APG).
It's never an easy call when the NBA Finals come around. Two team who have worked hard to get here—Golden State has played 99 regular season and playoff games, Cleveland 97—and both deserve to win. But that's not how the Finals works. It's a competition, team on team, that produces one champion. Whether it takes 4 games or 7, in two weeks' time, we'll have either a new but familiar champion, or the same champion for the second year in a row. Despite their narrow escape to San Antonio and Cleveland's lack of health issues, this series is Golden State's to lose.
Prediction: Golden State Warriors in 7 games.