The Golden Era | A Golden State Warriors Dynasty (NBA 2K20)

[studbucket]

I think your roster tables unfortunately didn't paste in correctly.

Quote:

Charlotte Hornets Depth Chart - 2029-30STARTER2ND3RD4THPGFranklin Reed (79)Anton Forte (77)Quincy Cross (75)Daquan Graner (71)SGJoshua Christopher (81)David Johnson (78)Kelvin Rhodes (74)Kaleb Payton (73) (TW)SFKeldon Johnson (79)Anthony Edwards (84) (INJ)PFJaden McDaniels (76)Percy Evans III (74) (R)CRobert Mack (78) (R)Antoine Shaw (75)

That's an example of what they look like for me. The easiest way I've found to include tables is to format them in Microsoft Word and use Firefox. Chromium-based browsers don't seem to preserve table formatting when pasting over for some reason.

[marshdaddy]

Quote: Originally Posted by studbucket

I think your roster tables unfortunately didn't paste in correctly. That's an example of what they look like for me. The easiest way I've found to include tables is to format them in Microsoft Word and use Firefox. Chromium-based browsers don't seem to preserve table formatting when pasting over for some reason.

So it’s pasting just the text of the file? Weird, it was previewing fine when I was on chrome, I’ll take a look tonight

[marshdaddy]

Warriors’ mailbag: The reason behind the Shai trade, realistic rookie expectations and how far can Jevon Rolle go?

Isaiah Charles | December 1, 2029

How many years of patience did the Warriors’ eight NBA titles in 12 years buy them? We’re about to find out. After a second-straight year without an NBA title, now considered a drought by Golden State’s standards, the Warriors enter the 2029-30 season after a summer of splashes, which opens the door for plenty of questions.

We’ve opened the PO box to a rush of submitted questions about the state of the Warriors moving forward, the summer they just had, and what a title hunt looks like now.

Let’s get to it.

Were the Warriors ever committed to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander if they traded him away just two summers after signing him?

In short, yes, for a time, they were very committed to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That time just wasn’t as long as many may have hoped or expected.

When the Warriors signed Gilgeous-Alexander in 2027, it came on the heels of an NBA title with the Warriors looking towards the next three years to see how they could replicate that. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson had just retired, and the team was concerned about the long-term viability of Ben Simmons (PF, 84) as the lead man on a title team. Add on to that the fact that Jevon Rolle (PG, 89) had yet to crack the starting lineup, and the Warriors were understandably concerned about if they had the right pieces in place.

Enter Gilgeous-Alexander. He had shared a backcourt with Cade Cunningham since 2021, lending the Warriors to believe he would fit well next to Rolle as he assumed the starting point guard position in place of Curry.

And truthfully, Gilgeous-Alexander was a great fit next to Rolle. But last summer’s decision to sign Jalen Suggs (SG, 86) complicated that. Gilgeous-Alexander was forced to play the three, a spot that at the time he was comfortable with but as the season wore on he grew less enthused with guarding bigger wings.

I don’t believe the Warriors signed Suggs with the vision that he would replace Gilgeous-Alexander, but the rise of Rolle as an All-NBA point guard, Suggs’ better age fit (he’s 25, Gilgeous-Alexander turned 31), and an opportunity to add a younger and bigger playmaker in the draft were enough to intrigue the front office.


Rhadi Staley has now been in charge of the Warriors for close to a decade, what has been his biggest mistake?

For the most part, Staley’s reign as President of Basketball Operations, and General Manager before then, has been positive. He’s helped put together one of the more dominant runs in NBA history and kept the Warriors in title contention. That being said, there is one glaring mistake that he has made that should be factored into everything: the decision to draft Ibrahim Mobley (F, 84) with the second overall pick in 2022.

The Warriors owned the Charlotte Hornets' selection by way of a draft night trade the previous year in which Golden State swapped the fifth pick with the Hornets for the rights to draft Jonathan Kuminga (F, 86) third overall. Entering the lottery, the Hornets’ selection was projected to be ninth overall before leaping to the top of the draft.

Mobley had been the presumptive No. 1 pick for much of the draft leadup by scouts and executives. An athletic scorer who led college basketball with 26.8 points on 53.1% shooting, Mobley drew comparisons to Kevin Garnett, Chris Bosh and Anthony Davis and was considered a no-brainer for the first overall pick.

But the Pistons shocked many by taking Fresno State senior shooting guard Desmond Cooper (SG, 90), who had averaged 25.7 points with the Bulldogs while shooting 43.6% from deep, with the first pick, a selection that looking back now is tough to discredit. That dropped Mobley to two, and the Warriors, with Anthony Edwards (SF, 84) and Kuminga installed on the wings and with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson at the guard positions and still playing in their primes, gladly took what they felt was the missing piece to a dynamic wing trio.

Here’s where it went wrong. Six picks later the Orlando Magic would take Tre Hunter (PG, 95) out of UCLA. Hunter was seen by many as a lottery pick, a point guard who could shoot the lights out but supposedly lacked playmaking feel, a description the Warriors should have been all too familiar with.

While Mobley developed into a reliable starting wing, playing a key role on a pair of championship teams, Hunter has become a top-five player in the NBA, already anointed with an MVP award. Those around the Warriors will say that Mobley ended up playing a key role as the centerpiece of the trade that landed them Jevon Rolle (PG, 89) on draft night in 2025, and that at the time of the 2022 NBA Draft, Curry was coming off an NBA MVP season and the Warriors didn’t have a need for a young backup point guard, as Curry wouldn’t retire for another five seasons.

But the truth remains that they passed up the chance to get another all-time great point guard.

I’m going to give a quick nod to the 2026 trade that Staley made that sent Darius Stith (SG, 81) and the 24 and 28th picks in the 2026 NBA Draft to the Milwaukee Bucks for a lottery pick in 2027. The hope in Golden State was that the Bucks would struggle and the Warriors might get a chance at the top pick, which ended up being DeAngelo Ayon (SF, 82) by the Clippers. Instead, the pick ended up at 12 where the Warriors took Keon Fogg (SG, 70). Fogg has had each of his two NBA seasons cut short by knee injuries, one a dislocated patella and the other a torn ACL, while Stith just had an impressive season with the Wizards, averaging 17.9 points a game.


Are there any unicorns in today’s NBA like we’ve seen in the past, like Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid or prime Kristaps Porzingis?

Durant, Antetokounmpo, who is riding out the final years of his late prime with Dallas, Embiid, now in Milwaukee, and Porzingis, doing the same in Seattle though he may be traded this season, defined an era of evolution in the NBA with taller players able to play like guards. While there aren’t players in today’s NBA who stand out physically than those before them, there are a handful of players that stand out in their own way.

I’ll posit that Jaylen Justice (PG, 90) in Toronto, the reigning NBA and NBA Finals MVP, is in fact a unicorn. We haven’t seen a point guard score with the ability that he has while shifting the defense around his essence before. He shoots like Stephen Curry but attacks the rim like Russell Westbrook. He can make plays and rebound like Magic Johnson while playing stout perimeter defense. He truly does everything like few, if any, before him have.

I’ll add Oklahoma City’s Cade Cunningham (PG, 90) to the short list as well. He’s the size of a wing with the playmaking feel of a guard. He’s become a dangerous three-point threat with elite defense on the perimeter. He doesn’t quite have the athletic explosion as Justice, or even guys like Ja Morant (PG, 96), but he’s explosive in his own way.

It’s far too early to claim he will be a unicorn, but just from watching him in college and seeing him dominant at Summer League and play well in the preseason, I’m going to throw Robert Mack (C, 78) into that conversation. The Hornets’ rookie big has a lot of the similar traits that guys like Embiid and Porzingis had: three-level scoring with reliable handles and the athleticism to take guys off the dribble. I think the best-case version of him is unicorn-like, but we’re still years away from seeing it come to fruition.


People around the league often say rookies don’t contribute to winning. If so, why the move to get Deonte Dixon and what can we expect from him, assuming the Warriors want to win a title?

I’ll answer the last part first: yes, the Warriors intend to compete for an NBA title and felt that trading Gilgeous-Alexander for Deonte Dixon (SF, 76) did not prohibit that.

Now that the easy part is out of the way, let’s get to the why. Golden State got massacred against both the Clippers and Rockets by bigger, physical wings who were guarded by Gilgeous-Alexander. That’s not his fault, he’s a guard who was asked to be a forward, but it was still a mismatch in favor of the opponent. Dixon enters the NBA as an explosive athlete, one of the best to enter the league in some time, and profiles as an incredible long-term fit next to Jonathan Kuminga (F, 86), whom the Warriors have had play the four for the past few years.

That’s not to mention the fact that Dixon is seen to have one of the highest ceilings among this year’s class with his defensive versatility and playmaking skills with the ball. If Dixon develops into what the coaching staff has been raving about, this is a great pick and trade.

As for expectations. Dixon will not start, Steve Kerr has already said that. Shane Ruffin (SG/SF, 82) and Jaheim Briggs (SG/SF, 81) will enter camp vying for the starting spot at the three, with the other getting a comparable amount of minutes, though both players are better served as off-guards than wings. That means Dixon will compete with fellow rookie Patrick Morris Sr. (SF, 75) for minutes on the wing, where the Warriors decided against signing a veteran piece and instead brought back Alfonzo Harrell (PF, 77).

Kerr has not ruled out that Dixon won’t start at some point this season. The coaching staff has always given rookies a chance to prove themselves, and I’m told if Dixon, or Morris Sr. for that matter, prove they belong in the starting lineup, they will get that opportunity.

When he’s on the court, I’d expect the Warriors to give him an opportunity to prove himself as an initiator early on and if that doesn’t pan out, use him in a similar vein as they do Kuminga: a slashing off-ball threat who is also involved in the pick-and-roll. While Dixon turned a lot of heads at Summer League, winning Summer League MVP and scoring more than 30 points a game, it’d be unreasonable to expect that out of him in the NBA as a rookie.


How did Jevon Rolle’s All-NBA selection factor into the Warriors’ offseason?

Rolle had the type of year that the Golden State coaching staff had been promising would be coming. He was an electric scorer, intense defender and impressive playmaker, and was rewarded with a third-team All-NBA selection. That improvement gave the Warriors the confidence to trade away Gilgeous-Alexander after he had requested a trade, I’m told, and know they have their guy moving forward (and it also earned Rolle a huge pay increase this past summer on his rookie extension).

The belief now is that they envision Rolle taking a similar jump that Jaylen Justice (PG, 90) took last year, going from a promising prospect to NBA MVP while dominating in the playoffs. I think that type of meteoric rise is unfair for the fifth-year guard, but the expectation is clear: Rolle is their guy and will be the first man in line as they go after an NBA title.


Is there a timetable on the returns for Wiseman and Fogg?

On media day, the team gave the first update on both James Wiseman (C, 80) (achilles) and Keon Fogg (SG, 70) (ACL) since the end of last season: both are making progress but are unlikely to be in the rotation on opening night.

Both players suffered injuries last January, and both injuries typically involve a one-year recovery. The sense I’ve gotten is that Fogg is expected back after Wiseman, but for either of them the message the team has given, publicly and privately, is that they are aiming for a return in mid-January at the absolute earliest, though that could certainly change.


Does the team see James Wiseman as the long-term center of the future?

Basically, yes.

Before it was Gilgeous-Alexander, Wiseman was a name commonly dropped in trade rumors involving Golden State. Those rumors should be put to bed, for three reasons. Primarily, few teams are or will be interested in Wiseman until they have a chance to see him on the court after his torn achilles. He’s still just 27 years old, but he relies so much on his athleticism to pull in rebounds and defend in the paint, that it's understandable that both Golden State and any potential trade partner would want to see how he looks before making any commitment.

The second reason is a bit of an extension from the first, but Wiseman signed a four-year deal worth more than $80 million in 2028, before the injury. Few teams will want to give up the necessary financial investment to bring in a center on that price tag with that injury history. We saw the market for Karl-Anthony Towns (C, 88) being non-existent this past summer after he suffered the same injury, the same I would expect to be true for Wiseman and Towns is a better center.

Lastly, the Warriors need Wiseman. Golden State went to a small ball look with Kuminga and Harrell splitting time at the five last year, and while that is still a potential lineup, I think the Warriors would rather use that as a break in case of emergency. It can be a disruptive lineup, especially against slower-footed centers, but until the Warriors have switchable wings on the perimeter it’s not a legitimate option.

It’s also worth mentioning that Wiseman is an NBA Finals MVP, due in large part to his ability to dominate the glass, create second chance opportunities, and be a vertical threat. If he can return to 80% of his previous self, Golden State will want him on their roster more than off it.


We’ve seen teams like Memphis, New Orleans, and Oklahoma City shy away from re-signing free agents because of the luxury tax bills they’ve accumulated. Do you think Golden State would ever do that?

There are a few differences between those three teams and Golden State. The Warriors are in a much bigger market and have better local TV deals and local revenue than all three organizations you mention. That lends them more revenue and more opportunity to offset massive luxury tax bills.

That being said, we’ve seen Golden State make financial decisions when it came to their roster before, most recently following the 2027 NBA championship year when they left a 15th roster spot open for the entire year so as to remain below the luxury tax.

The moves made by New Orleans and Memphis to not re-sign Tyrese Haliburton (SG, 84) and Dillon Brooks (SG, 83), respectively, got headlines but neither was necessarily surprising. Both teams paid more than $500 million in luxury taxes alone over the past four years, something that was not sustainable for the long-term health of the organizations.

The Thunder got off of Ben Simmons’ (PF, 84) contract but brought back D’Angelo Russell (PG, 82) and Sekou Doumouya (PF, 86), who combined to make more, with Russell under contract for two more years. Since they are still not yet under the luxury tax line, or even close to it, I’d expect them to continue to swallow a large luxury tax bill this season and re-evaluate how to get under that line next summer.

But I wouldn’t anticipate the Warriors reaching that point, if only because they’ve been reluctant to give out similarly sized contracts that put Memphis and New Orleans into the situations they were. They were able to get Ruffin and Briggs on relatively good long-term deals, each making around $11 million annually. Wiseman’s deal is big but not back breaking, and Suggs’ deal, paying him $15 million annually, is a bargain now.

Rolle is now the highest paid player, making north of $30 million, and Kuminga will likely get there when his current deal expires, so the days spent living under the luxury tax line may be limited, but the Warriors have set themselves up to be able to duck under that line if they need to. However, history tells us they aren’t afraid to go over it, so even if they do reach a selling-off point, it won’t be for 3-4 years down the road, at the absolute earliest.


How much longer do you think Golden State will hold onto Keon Fogg?

Look, I’m not going to defend Golden State for trading away a pair of mid-20s picks and Darius Stith (SG, 81) just to move up to the 12th pick to get Keon Fogg (SG, 70) two years ago, but Fogg is still highly regarding in the organization, even if those outside the team see him as an injury-prone waste of a lottery pick.

The vitriol the fanbase has for Fogg surprises me, considering he is a team-oriented player who has given back to the community in his two years in the Bay Area. And while I understand it can be hard to watch as Stith is in Washington leading the Wizards in scoring, blaming him for suffering season-ending knee injuries in each of his first two years in the league is unfair.

Fogg, when healthy, is a lightning quick scorer who can be the lead man of a bench unit, and the team feels he still has plenty of good basketball left in him. Sure, maybe that’s them doubling-down on their investment, but considering the depth they’ve managed to acquire, they don’t need to rush Fogg or his development.

The team has indicated they plan to pick up his third-year team option at the end of this season, regardless of how it goes. Do I think it’s a great use of a roster spot and backup point guard minutes? Not necessarily. But the Warriors do, and until they’re proven otherwise, Fogg will be here, whether the fanbase likes it or not.


If you had to rank the worst general managers in the NBA, who would be atop the list?

For clarification, I’m not one to say that being a general manager in the NBA is easy. Far from it. You’re dealing with personalities, injuries, and at the end of day people’s professional livelihoods. It is one of the hardest jobs in sports.

That does not mean people can’t fail, so I’ll respect the question and rather than call out one individual general manager, I think we’re safe to recognize some of the more struggling franchises.

Sacramento Kings

The Kings haven’t made a playoff appearance since 2006. They haven’t had a winning season since the same year. The most wins they’ve had since 2006 is 39 in 2018-19, more than a decade ago.

While so much of NBA success is also built on luck, the Kings have made questionable move after questionable move. They drafted power forwards in three lottery drafts in four years, in 2020 (Precious Achiuwa, 14th overall), 2021 (Usman Garuba, 7th overall), and 2023 (R.J. Wallace, 9th overall). Both Achiuwa and Garuba have been more successful when they left Sacramento. Then they became infatuated with wings, taking Marcel Hampton (SF, 78) first overall in 2024 before taking Spiro Giannou (PF, 78) (since moved to power forward) and Jayson Strong (SF, 76) both in the lottery the next year, suffocating any minutes any of them had to develop. Hampton and Strong have both since been traded to Memphis and Orlando, respectively, but the Kings then drafted Jair Dooling (SF, 76) with the fifth pick and Wesley Randle (SG, 72) with the 10th pick in 2028.

It gets worse, though. The Kings just drafted Antonio Bennett (SF, 76) with the seventh pick this past summer. I really like Bennett, but jeez if he doesn’t have a great runway to work from.
It’s frustrating to see Sacramento make questionable move after questionable move, refusing to commit to singular talent and building around them. They instead have taken the “best player available” approach, but even then I don’t know that they’ve taken that guy.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are a deserving inclusion here as well. While the Lakers have been a mediocre team in the NBA, never quite dropping to cellar dweller with Anthony Davis (PF, 88) but never quite rising to title contender, it’s still a disappointment when you consider the assets available.
They’re in what is widely considered the most ideal market, they have a glowing history and have traditionally been the team many superstars want to play for.

Instead, they’ve been surpassed by the Los Angeles Clippers in terms of star attraction, as the Clippers have powered through losing seasons and patiently built a contender through savvy acquisitions and good draft picks. The Lakers, instead, have dealt away those opportunities, the most glaring of which was the decision to trade Zavier Carter (C, 78) to the Boston Celtics as part of a three-team deal that netted them Wendell Carter Jr. (C, 83).

Carter Jr. made sense when they wanted to win immediately and tying Carter’s development to Davis’ near-ending prime would’ve been difficult to pull off, but it’s better than the alternative: a sub-.500 team who again missed the playoffs.


Seattle Sonics

The Sonics have been back in existence long enough to have established themselves as a poorly performing organization. That being said, the decision they made to immediately pursue wins upon re-entering the NBA seemed short sighted and misguided. The NBA is a star driven league, and Seattle felt that because of the rich history of basketball in the city and the storyline about a player being able to resurrect a once-dead franchise would entice stars to the Pacific Northwest. Unfortunately for them, that calculation was wrong.

They landed Michael Porter Jr. in free agency prior to their first year back in the league, and ended up trading for Kawhi Leonard the following year, but no major star truly wanted to go to Seattle. There wasn’t a trade demand by one of the NBA’s current elites to head to Seattle and free agency was barren when the Sonics had money. So while their vision may have been admirable, the timing and execution was not.

I’ll give them credit for not trading away draft picks to land an aging star, and while the trade for Leonard from Boston involved a first, the protections turn it into a likely second now that the Sonics have embraced the long road. But even by landing those stars, they still finished with the worst record in the NBA each of the last two years, so by accident they still managed to go to a full-on rebuild.

So the true negative has been the stigma around the team. They entered the NBA like a bull in a china shop, thinking they’d be the hottest destination. Instead, they received a tepid response, and have to continue the rebuild with their tails between their legs.

[studbucket]

Super interesting, thanks for the last few updates.

I cannot believe that the Kings haven't accidentally fallen into the playoffs once over the last 25 years. That's peak futility. Is there a good reason the team is still in Sacramento?

I know Brandon Clark got traded to Milwaukee and then got hurt, is he now out of the league?

Can Keon Fogg actually get playing time on this Warriors team? How does he get minutes?

[marshdaddy]

Quote: Originally Posted by studbucket

Super interesting, thanks for the last few updates. I cannot believe that the Kings haven't accidentally fallen into the playoffs once over the last 25 years. That's peak futility. Is there a good reason the team is still in Sacramento? I know Brandon Clark got traded to Milwaukee and then got hurt, is he now out of the league? Can Keon Fogg actually get playing time on this Warriors team? How does he get minutes?

I'm not a huge fan of moving teams in 2k for whatever reason. I moved Memphis to San Diego in 2k16 and since then have been reluctant to do it again. I think I just like having official uniforms. Also, I'm not sure where they'd go that'd be better than there. Seattle and Las Vegas are taken. Maybe Vancouver, Kansas City or Louisville, but then the issue is branding, and since I just use what is on 2K share, I'd be stuck with using what's there. Plus, I like the potential that story they come back.

Good memory on Clarke, I actually forgot he was part of the trade for Josh Green and got hurt. Had to search my archive for that. He's currently a free agent. 73 overall and 33 years old. He's probably the best power forward available, but I doubt he gets signed.

I think he has a pathway to minutes as a backup guard with the second unit with Suggs. We need playmaking and on-ball creation, and although we got better wings this summer we still need to have playmaking and I think he can be that. Unfortunately I'm not sure how long until he's back and when he is, the injuries may have sapped a lot of what I liked in him when we drafted him.

[marshdaddy]

Top 10 storylines entering the 2029-30 NBA season

Plus: Season predictions

Ryen Simons | December 1, 2029

It’s the most wonderful time of the year. No, not the impending holiday season, the beginning of the NBA season. As opening night sits on December 3, with the Hornets and Spurs tipping things off in San Antonio, it brings with it intrigue and excitement. To conclude our flurry of season preview pieces, here are the 10 things I’m watching this season.


1 - Are the Warriors title contenders or rebuilding?

For decades, the Lakers were the team that dominated headlines and served as the boogeyman over the shoulders of impending free agents, threatening to pry them from opponents with the appeal of Hollywood and Southern California. Over the last decade, the Warriors have replaced them, and with that comes the Warriors’ domination of the headlines.

Which leads us to the first storyline, a will they won’t they of the Warriors upcoming season. The Warriors spent the beginning of the offseason dealing away a valuable veteran in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG, 87) in exchange for the third overall pick, which ended up being Deonte Dixon (SF, 77), before drafting Patrick Morris Sr., (SG, 78) with the 10th overall pick, a move that seemed to point towards a potential retooling, if not rebuilding, in the Bay Area.

They were quiet in free agency, making just two signings: Udoka Azubuike (C, 74) to a two-year pact and Bradley Beal (SG, 78) to a one-year contract. Mix in James Wiseman (C, 80) set to return from a torn achilles, and the moves continued to indicate that the Warriors were comfortable with a year that would be more likely to end not in pursuit of a title.

But as training camp ramped up, all the quotes and messaging out of Golden State were that they fully intended to compete, walking a similar path to the one they traveled during the 2020 and 2021 seasons, when they mixed the return of Klay Thompson with the development of Anthony Edwards (SF, 84) and Jonathan Kuminga (F, 86). That tightrope walk paid off, as the Golden State won the first two of their four-straight titles, so if anyone can manage both, it may be the Warriors.

Jevon Rolle (PG, 89) will surely be the biggest piece to that. If he can make another leap from All-NBA guard to MVP candidate, that belief may be true. But if the Warriors stumble out the gate and begin to prioritize developmental minutes for Dixon and Morris Sr., it could easily swing the pendulum.


2 - How will the Morgan-Reed pairing in workout in Brooklyn?

At the behest of Louis Morgan (SG, 91), the Nets made arguably the splashiest move of the offseason in acquiring Brighton Reed (PG, 86) via sign-and-trade with the Pacers, netting Brooklyn the first and fourth picks in the 2025 NBA Draft.

Morgan and Reed are famously close friends, and the falling out of Reed in Indiana spurred by the emergence of C.J. McCoy (SG, 91) and Jace Redding (SF, 86) facilitated a seamless acquisition for the Nets, but it’s a quazi all-in move that carries consequence despite the Nets not giving up many elite pieces in return.

Morgan had been vocal about his desire to win now, after two-straight 44-win seasons that both resulted in first round exits. The Nets feel that Reed is the missing piece that can spur to life an offense that previously orbited around a singular sun to two of them, transitioning Brooklyn from the Milky Way to that of the Outer Rim Territories.

But if it fails, it will bring about much more questions than answers. Morgan has garnered a perception, perhaps unfairly, as a big numbers bad team player. If he gets a formidable running mate and fails to win, that perception only grows stronger. Reed, meanwhile, has a perception throughout the league as a player who is more in the ilk of Tyreke Evans than that of franchise superstar, seeing his scoring, rebounding and assists fall since his rookie season.

Needless to say, failure together creates even more problems for Brooklyn.


3 - What will Jaylen Justice’s follow up act be?

It’s hard to fully explain how impressive Justice’s season was a year ago. He was a supernova of offensive firepower that led the Raptors, a team entering the season few expected to be a serious threat in the East, into an all-time great playoff team, losing just once en route to the title.

But it begs the question, how much more can Justice truly raise his game? He averaged better than 34 points per month from February to the close of the season, including a 37-point-per-game month in April. He scored better than 50 points twice in the NBA Finals in four games, a feat only Stephen Curry has accomplished in an NBA Finals, though he needed a six-game series to pull it off.

Last year feels like the type of year that you remember as the best of a player’s career, but Justice is entering just the fourth year of his NBA career. Can he take it up even further? And if not, is that somehow a bad thing? I don’t know the answers but I’m excited to find out.


4 - Are the Mavericks still title contenders?

Last season felt like the Mavericks best shot at an NBA championship. They won 61 games, the best in the Western Conference, and entered the playoffs fully healthy, something they had not been able to accomplish in any of the three previous seasons with Luka Doncic (SG, 98) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF, 88). Yet they were still bounced in the opening round of the playoffs by the Oklahoma City Thunder, a team who had struggled mightily throughout the regular season.

Just six months removed from their last appearance on an NBA court, many across the league are curious how much they have left in the tank.

Six of the Mavericks’ top seven rotation players are at least 30 years old, led by Antetokounmpo at 35, while Markelle Fultz (PG, 82) is 31 and Doncic, Lonnie Walker IV (SF, 82), Goga Bitadze (C, 82) and Aaron Nesmith (SF, 79) are all 30. The lone under-30 high-level rotation player they have is Kira Lewis Jr. (PG, 79) who is 28.

Father Time is undefeated, just ask Curry, LeBron James and any superstar before them. And the clock is awfully close to midnight if the bell isn’t already sounding.


5 - Is Chicago ready to make the leap behind Kareem Robinson?

Kareem Robinson (PG, 90) knew what he was doing last summer when he ventured out into restricted free agency to get a 3+1 max contract offer. He knew the Bulls would match and bring him back, but he also knew the deal would net him much needed pressure on the organization. And boy did it deliver.

Just two years after making major signings to bring in Isaiah Stewart (C, 83) and Terrance Clarke (SF, 85), the Bulls have their backs against the wall in a season in which the expectation is title contention, a message that Robinson has been increasingly vocal about.

To date, the Bulls have been reluctant to make any major roster moves that would instantly jolt them into the title conversation. They missed out on the Jayson Tatum (PF, 94) sweepstakes a summer ago, and have been reluctant to include Coby White (SG, 85) in trade conversations, despite him being the backup two-guard behind Tyrese Alston (G, 86).

They’re still weak at the four, where Lauri Markkanen (PF, 81) is expected to be the opening night starter as Jalon Howard (PF, 76) has struggled to develop since the Bulls took him 11th overall two years ago. And they added to their already wing-heavy roster by signing Dillon Brooks (SG, 82) in the offseason.

League sources expect the Bulls to be more aggressive in trying to add another wing, potentially floating White and draft picks to try to pluck any disgruntled forwards on the market, though there doesn’t appear to be many of those available. Maybe the Robinson-Alston backcourt continues to fail to produce wins and Alston, who is viewed by many as a blue chip piece, is the name on the market, and he would surely bring more suitors. Regardless, Chicago will be entertaining both on and off the court.


6 - Is Jason Sanders truly elite?

Sanders was the second biggest benefactor of an incredible postseason a year ago, behind only Justice and slightly above Devin Booker (SG, 90) in Houston. By leading the Cavaliers to their first Eastern Conference Finals since the LeBron-era, along with an All-NBA season, Sanders raised the expectation of him throughout the league that he should be considered among the NBA’s elite wings.

This season will be the chance to prove if that’s true, or if last year was merely a flash in the pan.

The Cavs added Tyrese Haliburton (SG, 84) from the Pelicans via sign-and-trade to flank Sanders as the secondary playmaker along with Darius Garland (PG, 84), but concerns exist about how great Sanders truly is. He’s averaged identical scoring and assist numbers over the past four seasons, which to be fair is around 25 points a game, a great mark, and while he did step up in the playoffs last year, he did so on increased usage while averaging slightly lower shooting splits.

This isn’t me saying Sanders isn’t elite, but his numbers have previously been that of an All-Star caliber wing who then managed to pull some upsets in the playoffs. This season will be his chance to change that.


7 - Was the Wizards’ 53-win season a fluke or sign of things to come?

The Wizards came out of nowhere a year ago to win 53 games, the East’s third seed, and within one win from escaping the first round of the playoffs. It was a surprise, to be sure, but a welcome one considering Washington’s futility for the previous decade. The big question is if it was forreal.

Few expected the Wizards to compete for the playoffs, let alone win 53 games, if only because they lacked the perceived star that can get them there. They relied on Zain Bennett (PF, 84), who is entering his third year in the NBA after averaging 14.3 points and 13.4 rebounds last season.

Washington also turned to Darius Stith (SG, 81) as their leading scorer with 17.9 points a game. Stith is a lightning bolt of offensive production, but he isn’t what many would expect to be your go-to scorer in the clutch.

Perhaps the biggest swing piece for Washington is Devan Anderson (C, 79). The second-year center provided more offensive and defensive punch than many expected after going fourth overall, and if he can follow in the developmental footsteps of Bennett, the Wizards may just have the best young frontcourt in the NBA.


8 - How will the Celtics’ rebuild continue?

The Boston Celtics have been aggressive in their rebuilding process since they traded away Jayson Tatum (PF, 94) and Jaylen Brown (SG, 84) two summers ago. The Tatum trade brought back Zavier Carter (C, 78) from the Lakers while Boston received Jonathan Malheur (PG, 78) in the Brown deal, both top-eight picks in the 2028 NBA Draft, while they used their own selection to pick Tyrell Kemp (SF, 76) with the 12th pick. This summer, the Celtics rounded out their young core with Davis Montgomery (SG, 76), whom they took with the second pick.

With what seems to be a young core in place, the Celtics can freely play their young players, allowing them to succeed, fail and develop with no concern for their record, in large part due to the fact that Boston owns an incredible 12 first round draft picks in the next four drafts, including potentially five this coming summer.

Along with their own pick this summer, the Celtics also own unprotected first round picks from the Jazz and Magic, via the Brown and Tatum trades, respectively. They also have a top-five protected pick from the Lakers, acquired in the Tatum deal, and a top-10 protected pick from the Raptors that they received when they sent Robert Williams (C, 79) to Toronto at last year’s trade deadline. Here’s the full cache of picks:

2030: Own, Utah Jazz, Orlando Magic, Los Angeles Lakers (top five protection), Toronto Raptors (top 10 protected)
2031: Las Vegas reign (lottery protected, converts to two seconds if not conveyed), swap rights with the Orlando Magic
2032: Own, Utah Jazz, Orlando Magic
2033: Own, Los Angeles Clippers

Carter and Malheur have flashed All-Star upside, and Montgomery is one of the most heralded high school recruits to enter the NBA in years, meaning the Celtics can either add to their roster with that bevy of picks, or enter any trade conversation for a superstar loaded with assets. Boston may be the sleeping giant of the NBA.


9 - Will the Bucks tear down around Dwayne Qualls or let the fourth-year pro go?

The Milwaukee Bucks are in a precarious position entering the 2029-30 season. Dwayne Qualls (PG, 89) is entering the final year of his rookie contract, but the Bucks have precious few young assets around him. After trading away their pick in the 2029 NBA Draft in 2027, a trade likely to haunt and hang over the Bucks for years as the pick ended up being sixth for the Hornets and getting them Robert Mack (C, 78), another rookie I’m extremely bullish on, the Bucks have failed to provide the type of supporting cast that Qualls needs to take Milwaukee to the next level.

The former second overall pick averaged 27.2 points, 5.9 rebounds and 8.1 assists a year ago while shooting 39.1% from deep, a massive leap from 27.8% and 31.2% from his first and second years in the NBA. But that’s the only real connection the Bucks have made on draft night. Matthew Hunter (SF, 74) hasn’t quite blossomed since being taken seventh in 2028 and Quentin Lowe (C, 70) has fallen out of the rotation since Milwaukee took him with the 15th pick in 2026.

Meanwhile, along with trading away their pick in 2029, they also dealt their 2027 pick to the Warriors, which ended up being Keon Fogg (SG, 70) for Darius Stith, who they let walk to the Wizards. They’ve taken fliers on former high draft picks, including Elias Catchings (SF, 75), the eighth pick by the Bulls in 2025, and Ricky Jacobs (SF, 75), the 19th pick in 2028 by Toronto, but neither has emerged as a diamond in the rough.

They signed the 35-year-old Joel Embiid (C, 81) to a two-year deal this summer to add a veteran presence, but it begs the question just how long will Qualls wait to let the Bucks figure it out? Milwaukee appears to be best setup for another high-lottery selection, a pick that could be valuable with Amari Swift (SF), one of the highest-rated recruits since LeBron James, expected to be in the draft, but how much benefit does another losing season have for Qualls? And if they struggle yet again, would Qualls be willing to sign his one-year restricted offer and bolt as an unrestricted free agent in the 2031?


10 - Is a full-year of the Orlando Magic of the big three good enough to win it all?

And lastly, the Orlando Magic. After starting last season 11-17 as they waited for Tatum to recover from a torn ACL, the Magic got red hot, going 39-15 down the stretch to get the six seed and knock out the Wizards in the opening round. They eventually fell to the Raptors in five games, but were the only team to actually snatch a victory from the eventual champions and held a pair of double-digit halftime leads in Games 4 and 5.

What can we expect from Orlando, a team that struggled even with Tatum in the lineup at defending in the paint? They let Cameron Reddish (SF, 78) walk in free agency, trusting that Jayson Strong (SF, 76) could fill in as a defensive stopper on the wing, and there are still concerns about Mo Bamba (C, 79) as the starting center moving forward. They tried to remedy the hole at the five in draft, taking Lynn Gardner (C, 72) with the 21st pick, but he’ll miss 2-4 weeks to start the season as he recovers from a torn MCL suffered during Summer League.

The good news is they still have a pair of MVPs in Tre Hunter (PG, 95) and Jalen Green (SG, 90) and the aforementioned Tatum, a trio of meteoric scorers who will light up the scoreboard almost every single night. It may be 82 track meets, but the Magic will at least be entertaining.


Season Predictions

Conference Finals

Western Conference: Los Angeles Clippers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

I’m buying heavy on the DeAngelo Ayon (SF, 84) stock, and expect a return to dominance by the Thunder. In Los Angeles, despite being without Karl-Anthony Towns (C, 86) likely for the year as he recovers from the torn achilles he suffered last May, the addition of Jaylen Brown (SF, 83) bolsters an impressive wing rotation. Ayon looked like a tentpole star in the Clippers’ five-game loss to the Warriors last year and with a healthy group around him could be dangerous.

For the Thunder, they rearranged their roster after a disappointing 40-42 season, even with a surprise upset of the Mavs in the opening round. They shipped away Ben Simmons (PF/PG, 84) to the Timberwolves, bringing back D’Angelo Russell (PG, 80) and Sekou Doumbouya (PF, 86) to surround Cade Cunningham (PG, 91) with better shooting and versatile defense, in the case of Doumbouya on the latter. That alone should make spacing and the flow of the offense better, and Russell gives their second unit a much-needed scoring boost.


Eastern Conference: Toronto Raptors vs. Detroit Pistons

The case for the Raptors is simple: Jaylen Justice is the best player in basketball. The surrounding cast is impressive, with All-NBA forward Ezekial Morrow (F, 84) and shooters like Dominique Allen (SG, 78) and Keon Johnson (G/F, 84). They went 15-1 in the playoffs for a reason.

Entering last year’s playoffs, I picked the Raptors and Pistons to meet in the Eastern Conference Finals and I’m still surprised we didn’t get it, so I’ll double-down that it happens this year. The Pistons have arguably the best big three in basketball with LaMelo Ball (PG, 90), Desmond Cooper (SG, 90) and Evan Mobley (PF, 90) and so long as they stay healthy the Pistons are arguably the best team in basketball.


NBA Finals: Raptors over Thunder

In Justice I trust. The Raptors’ title chances start and stop with the reigning NBA MVP, but that’s a pretty good place to start. Repeat for the north.


Season Awards

MVP: Jaylen Justice, PG, Toronto Raptors

This isn’t an exciting pick, but I think it’s the right one. Justice was unstoppable in the playoffs last year, leading the Raptors on a 15-1 charge, which followed up what was a remarkable end to the regular season. Justice is not only the best guard in the NBA, but is the best player in the NBA at just 23 years old and I’d expect to see him use the momentum he gathered last summer carry over this year.


Defensive Player of the Year: Cameron Sullivan, C, Cleveland Cavaliers

Sullivan brings to the table all the necessary components that voters love in their Defensive Player of the Year candidates. He’ll rebound the hell out of the ball, rack up an impressive number of blocks and deter opposing offenses from driving into the paint. He’s Rudy Gobert with an offensive touch.

What puts Sullivan over the top for me is his knack for getting his hand on passes and coming away with steals. If he continues that trend, it’ll be hard to unseat him.


Sixth Man of the Year: Dominique Allen, SG, Toronto Raptors

There will be no three-peat for Bol Bol (C, 87) in Detroit. Allen (SG, 79) is a lightning shooter with deadly accuracy at the wing for the Raptors, and next to Justice and Morrow, both extremely gifted playmakers, Allen should put up big and efficient numbers. The one caveat here is if Allen plays so well that the Raptors decide to start him over Keon Johnson (SG, 84), something I don’t see happening but certainly could.


Most Improved Player of the Year: Jacoby Cleaves, SF, Phoenix Suns

I normally try to stay away from picking second-year pros, so I’ll jump to the 2027 class and go with Cleaves. Calling him a disappointment as the second overall pick is unfair, but being sandwiched between the Clippers’ Ayon and the Wizards’ Bennett, both of whom led their teams to the playoffs a year ago, isn’t doing him any favors. Cleaves is still a reliable playmaker who just needs to improve his scoring touch, if he does so and gets the Suns back into the playoff picture should be enough to keep him relevant.


Rookie of the Year: Robert Mack, C, Charlotte Hornets

Let’s go with Mack here because I think he is not only arguably the most talented rookie, but he’ll also get a chance to put up massive numbers because of how bad I think the Hornets will be as they bring Anthony Edwards (G/F, 84) back from a torn ACL. Big numbers in big minutes is normally a recipe for Rookie of the Year and Mack will have both.

[marshdaddy]

Identifying what’s real and fake after one month of the NBA season
Plus the Way Too Early Awards

Ryen Simons | January 1, 2030

I used to have a rule: don’t take anything in the NBA serious until Martin Luther King Jr. Day at the end of January. That used to give us two months of basketball to digest, enough time for hot and cold streaks to even out and trends to take shape. But since the league moved to an early-December start beginning with the 2020-21 season, I’ve moved that timeline to Valentine’s Day.

Now that the caveat is out of the way, one month of the NBA season still gives us a myriad of events that could very well impact the league. Our job as the calendar flips to the new year is to see if we can spot which of these trends is real, and which one of them is fake.

Without further ado, I present Real or fake.

Real or fake: Golden State is a title contender

After a red-hot start at 9-1, the Warriors stumbled to close the opening month of the NBA season, falling 110-106 to San Antonio (more on them shortly), losing 108-102 to a struggling Phoenix squad, before getting blown out 111-78 by the Lakers on New Year’s Eve. That rough three-game stretch aside, the Warriors have looked like a promising team yet again atop the Western Conference.

They are sixth in the NBA in field goal percentage (48.1%) and 3-point percentage (39.1%) though are doing both on fewer attempts than they may like, which has them averaging just 113.4 points a game. They’re also third in the NBA in points in the paint with 39.8 a game, third in assists with 34.2 and are leading the NBA with 8.8 steals per game, all while holding opponents to 45.1% shooting from the floor, 10th-best.

The expectation around the organization is that Steve Kerr will look to increase the tempo to promote more shots, something they had thus far been reluctant to do as they re-integrated James Wiseman (C, 80), inserted Shane Ruffin (G/F, 81) into the starting lineup and got rookies Deonte Dixon (F, 77) and Patrick Morris Sr. (F, 78) into the rotation.

If the shooting percentages remain steady as they continue to put up more shots, and Jevon Rolle (PG, 90) and Jonathan Kuminga (F, 86) continue to play at All Star levels, Golden State may just factor into an NBA title again.

Conclusion: Real

Real or fake: San Antonio is the best team in the West

Record-wise, yes, they are, but that’s not really answering the question, is it? At 12-1, the Spurs have raced out of the gates yet again. Color me not convinced.

For the last three years, the Spurs have been the equivalent of a re-run on network television: good enough to garner your attention but not great enough for you to really care. They’ve put together successful regular seasons, winning 57 games a year ago and 61 wins in 2026-27 (an injury-plagued 42-win season sandwiched between the two), but have been bounced in the opening round each of the last three years. The biggest reason for those losses has been the injuries to Sasha Kasparov (C, 86), but it’s seemingly gone beyond that.

Cole Anthony (PG, 86) hasn’t elevated his game in the playoffs and they haven’t had a plethora of secondary options, especially now that Zach Lavine (SG, 81) is entering the final years of his career.

Anthony has, thus far, improved, averaging a career-best 22.1 points a game and making an early case for All Star consideration. Carlos Fernandez (SG, 77), the 18th pick in the 2028 NBA Draft, is averaging 16.7 points, up from 9.0 his rookie year, and the Spurs are averaging 117.5 points per game, second-best in the Western Conference. But until they do this in June, when wins actually matter, I can’t convince myself that they are anything but the same old Spurs.

Conclusion: Fake

Real or fake: Jair Dooling has elevated his game

Perhaps one of the biggest surprises have been the 7-5 Kings, a record that looked better a week ago at 6-3 before a 1-2 stretch to close the month. A massive part of that improvement has been the impressive play from second-year pro Jair Dooling (SF, 80). The former fifth overall pick is averaging 21.1 points a game, up from 14.2 as a rookie, and is shooting 53.3% from the floor and 39.7% from deep, improvements from 43.3% and 25.9%.

A lot of those numbers are buoyed by a scorching opening by Dooling before he came back to earth for a three-game stretch towards the end of the month, scoring under 11 points in three-straight games, including a 10 point, 4-for-12 showing on Christmas Day against the Warriors. But he responded, scoring 30 points in a New Year’s Eve win.

Is Dooling likely to maintain those scoring lines? It’s tough to tell much from a 12-game stretch in an 82-game season, but if he’s able to hover around 50% and 35% for the entirety of the year, the Kings may have the lynchpin player they’ve been looking for.

Conclusion: Real

Real or fake: Dwayne Qualls’ eruption in Milwaukee

Taken with the second pick in 2026, there were some in NBA circles that felt Qualls was the better point guard prospect than the man who went first overall, reigning NBA MVP and NBA Finals MVP Jaylen Justice. That take was laughable last summer, as Justice dominated in the playoffs and guided the Raptors to their second NBA title in franchise history.

One month of basketball won’t change much, but Qualls is at least giving his supporters something to point to. Qualls is an early favorite for Most Improved Player, averaging 34.1 points, 8.0 rebounds and 8.6 assists on 50% shooting from deep in 40.6 minutes a game. Milwaukee is jostling for position atop the East, something few predictors saw coming, but few saw this type of explosion coming either.

Despite missing three games with a bruised hip in the middle of the month, Qualls has elevated his game as Milwaukee needs it most. Ironically, this is both the year Qualls needed to lift his game and the Bucks needed him to not totally impact winning. One year after the Bucks forked their pick, the sixth overall selection, over to the Hornets as part of a draft day trade from 2027, who then took Robert Mack (C, 78), the Bucks now have their own selection and are looking to add additional young talent next to Qualls. Qualls, meanwhile, is on the final year of his rookie deal and is looking to make the case for a max extension.

Conclusion: Real

Real or fake: Defensive struggles from Orlando, Toronto and Memphis

Let’s take a look at the 10 worst defenses in terms of points against:

Worst defenses:
Toronto (5-7): 119.6
Minnesota (1-12): 118.9
Orlando (5-6): 118.0
Boston (3-10): 118.2
Memphis (7-5): 117.7
Charlotte (1-12): 116.3
Las Vegas (2-9): 116.0
Utah (5-8): 115.2
Phoenix (4-9): 113.5
Miami (6-6): 113.4

Among that bottom five: the Raptors, Magic, and Grizzlies, three teams expected to compete for an NBA title but have been atrocious on the defensive end, staying around or above .500 purely because of their offensive explosions. Instead of being legitimate contenders after one month, they’re instead occupying real estate in the neighborhood of the league’s worst.

The reasoning behind their poor defensive showings remains consistent, and before we jump into the individual teams, consider for a moment that the 10th to 15th-best offenses in the NBA are shooting 47-46% from the floor, while the top eight offenses in the NBA are shooting 47.8% or better.

Meanwhile, here are the opponent field goal and 3-point percentages for Toronto, Orlando, and Memphis:

Toronto: 48.9 FG% (third worst); 40.8 3P% (second worst)
Orlando: 47.2 FG% (seventh worst); 40.7 3P% (third worst)
Memphis: 48.4 FG% (fourth worst); 39.5 3P% (sixth worst)

Each of these three supposed contenders are allowing opponents to essentially become top eight to top 10 NBA offenses on any given night, far from a sustainable trait for a potential champion.

In the end, it’s come down to individual matchups. In Toronto, outside of impressive defense from Jaylen Justice, who is holding opponents to 45.7% shooting on 15.3 attempts, Ezekial Morrow (SF, 83), 41.7% on 13.0 attempts, and Precious Achiuwa (C, 84), 46.2% on 7.8 attempts, the Raptors are getting torched. Keon Johnson (G/F, 84) is allowing opposing wings to shoot 51.8% on 11.8 attempts; Robert Williams (C, 79) has been a revolving door inside, with bigs shooting 57.7% on 8.1 attempts against the five-time All-Defense center.

Life isn’t much better in Orlando, as Tre Hunter (PG, 95) is being targeted (48.8% on 15.6 attempts), Jalen Green (SG, 90) is a liability (51.9% on 12.1 attempts), Jayson Strong (SF, 77) isn’t stopping anyone (49.0% on 9.3 attempts) and Mo Bamba (C, 79) isn’t deterring the drive (52.7% on 10.2 attempts). The only reliable defender they’ve had has been Jayson Tatum (PF, 93) who is holding opposing wings to 41% shooting on 15.1 attempts.

You may be spotting a trend before we get to Memphis but we’ll list them anyway. Only Viktor Pressey (C, 78), who famously shut down DeAndre Ayton (C, 90) in the 2028 NBA Finals, is holding opponents to under 46% shooting (39.5% on 7.2 attempts). Otherwise it’s more of the same with Ja Morant (PG, 96) (50.3%), Jaren Jackson Jr. (PF, 87) (51.6%) and Josh Green (SG, 81) (46.8%).

Let’s not take for granted how stacked the NBA, and Eastern Conference especially, is with regards to elite guards, but the atrocities that are happening on a nightly basis on the defensive end are real reason for concern.

Conclusion: Real

Real or fake: The Wizards are forreal

One-year after surprising many in winning 53 games, the Wizards are enjoying a solid follow up act, sitting near the top of the Eastern Conference at 9-2, including an eight-game winning streak, much of which is on the back of incredible, borderline unsustainable defense.

The Wizards have the best defense in the NBA, allowing just 97.5 points a game with a 15.5 point differential, second only to the Houston Rockets (more on them shortly). They’re second in rebounds with 55.6 while holding opponents to 41% shooting from the floor and 29.1% shooting from deep, both league-leading.

But those shooting splits are hardly maintainable. If we consider league-average shooting from deep to be around 33-37%, the 29.1% against is too far outside that range to think it’s the Wizards holding opponents to that and not them getting lucky. If those numbers return to league average, remember the 15th-best offense in the NBA is shooting 46%, their defense will start to even out as well. That’s not to say they can’t still have a top 10 defense, just the pace at which they are currently playing at is too far from the normal for me to believe it.

Conclusion: Fake

Real or fake: Dallas is not a playoff team

“I wish there was a way to know you’re in the good old days before you’ve actually left them.” – Andy Bernard, scholar.

Maybe I’m dating myself with the reference, but for the Dallas Mavericks, I don’t know that there is a better quote to show just have far they’ve fallen. One year after owning the best record in the NBA, the Mavs can’t quite seem to figure it out.

They have the second-worst field goal percentage in the NBA (43%) and eighth-worst 3-point percentage (34%). Meanwhile, Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF, 87) is shooting a miserable 38.9% from the floor and Goga Bitadze (C, 81) isn’t much better at 40.5%. When their bigs can’t get it done, there isn’t much else Luka Doncic (SG, 98) can do.

The bright spot here is their defense, which is fifth in opponent field goals (43.5%) and second in 3-point (31.4%), but like Washington, those numbers are likely to rise. Yes, the Mavs too should return to shooting near league average, but even then I’m concerned that won’t be enough.

Conclusion: Real

Real or fake: The Rockets’ Finals run was not a fluke

Few pegged the Rockets to be a legitimate title contender before the season, despite their Finals trip a year ago that involved upsets of the Warriors and Pelicans. Through December, they’re proving any detractors left standing wrong.

They are second in the West and own the best point differential in basketball at 17.4, with an explosive offense (118.2) and lockdown defense (100.8). They’ve done it, again, on the back of great shooting and a deep starting five.

They have the second-best shooting offense, shooting 49.2% from the floor and 41.2% from deep. Devin Booker (SG, 90) leads the team in scoring at 20.5 points a game, while Nefi Diop (C, 82) is making an early case for an All Star selection with 17.6 points. Meanwhile, Cameron Kabongo (PF, 83) (14.6 points per game) and Killian Hayes (PG, 86) (11.2 points, 9.9 assists per game) remain reliable.

There may not be a ton of people who end up picking Houston come June, but if they continue to play at the level they are, they won’t be an easy out.

Conclusion: Real

Real or fake: The Pacers offense

Those around the Pacers’ organization were convinced that the swap of Brighton Reed (PG, 86) for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG, 86) would lead to a more fluid and potent offense. They spoke of C.J. McCoy (SG, 92) becoming an elite guard and Jace Redding (SF, 86) ascending to All Star wing status. The belief outside the organization was muted.

Through the opening month, those inside sources appear to be right. The Pacers are scoring the most points in the NBA at 122.0 a game, shooting 48.7% from the floor and 40.3% from deep, both fourth-best. All of those numbers are massive improvements from last year’s group that scored 113.1 points a game with 46.3% and 36.5% shooting splits, resulting in a 40-42 record and missing the playoffs.

McCoy has made another leap, averaging 27.1 points a game (up from 22.1), and despite missing two weeks due to a strained achilles, returned with a 30-point effort to close the month. Redding has remained consistent, averaging 19.2 points (19.8 a year ago) and Tobias Bell (PG, 81), the 17th pick in 2027, has relished the increased minutes he’s seen with the departure of Reed and injury to McCoy, averaging 18.8 points off the bench, a bump up from his 16.8 a year ago.

Gilgeous-Alexander has also been a welcome sight, averaging 19.5 points a game while serving as the steadying veteran presence on both ends of the floor and looking more comfortable back at the guard position.

It’s hard to envision this offense continuing to produce 120+ points a game, only because of the historic pace that would be, but they have the pieces in place that make that a legitimate possibility.

Conclusion: Real

Real or fake: The Reed-Morgan pairing in BKN will work out

It was Louis Morgan (SG, 91) who advocated so vocally for the Nets to pursue Reed in free agency, and the Nets acquiesced to their young star, sending away Patrick Williams (PF, 82) to Indiana and Jakob Kuksiks (PG, 83) to Utah to make it happen. At the time the move seemed like a home run, but thus far the results have been mixed.

Morgan’s scoring numbers are down for a second-straight year, scoring 23.1 points a game, down from 24.8 last year and 28.4 the year before. Meanwhile, the knock on Reed was that he had plateaued since his rookie yar, a detraction that has remained true. Reed is averaging 15.8 points a game on 11.8 attempts, shooting 46.5% from the floor, all of which are consistent with his numbers in Indiana. The one change has been his 3-point shooting, where he is making just 30.6% of his attempts, down from 35.8% last year.

The bright spot for Brooklyn has been the development of Rashawn Matthews (PF, 82), the eighth pick in 2027. The versatile forward is scoring 17.7 points a game with 11.8 rebounds on 44.8% shooting from the floor and 26.1% from deep. While his shooting splits are less than encouraging, he has increased his efficiency from 15.5 to 24.6 and his PER from 15.8 to 22.1.

But Matthews development isn’t the concern, it’s just a positive. The real concern is if Reed can ever develop and if he can pair well with Morgan. While I’m bullish on Reed, even these results concern me.

Conclusion: Fake


The Way Too Early Awards

Every year I think we try to determine who the MVP would be for the NBA season far too early, seemingly after one week of basketball, sometimes even one game. But we’re going to take a measured, patient approach and wait a month. So, with one month in the book, here are the Way Too Early Award winners. Congratulations to all our contestants.

Most Valuable Player
C.J. McCoy, SG, Indiana Pacers
I’m not sure if McCoy is actually deserving of being here by the end of the year, but serving as the best offensive weapon on the best offensive team in basketball gives him the non-existent award. Of all the players to have benefitted from the Reed saga, McCoy has been the biggest benefactor.

Defensive Player of the Year
Cameron Sullivan, C, Cleveland Cavaliers
Sullivan has been off to a great on the defensive end, leading the league in rebounding while sitting at fifth in blocks (2.4) and seventh in steals (1.8). He’s also holding opponents to just 50% shooting within six feet of the hoop and 29.7% from 6-10 feet.

Sixth Man of the Year
Tobias Bell, PG, Indiana Pacers
Realistically speaking, Bell wouldn’t be eligible for this award because he started a handful of games in place of C.J. McCoy, but rules don’t apply here. Bell has upped his scoring and is a reliable playmaker, finally flashing some of the potential he possessed but had been stuck behind Reed and McCoy in their back-and-forth battle for primary ball handling duties.

Most Improved Player of the Year
Dwayne Qualls, PG, Milwaukee Bucks
With all due respect to Sacramento’s Jair Dooling, who would probably be the runner-up in this fictional award, and Indiana’s McCoy, it has to be Qualls. He’s made a huge offensive leap and has the Bucks well ahead of schedule.

Rookie of the Year
Darius Dixon, G/F, Utah Jazz
Let’s go with Dixon here because he’s getting the opportunity to actually play, compared to his brother Deonte who has probably been playing better but on more limited opportunities, and is team is somewhat competitive, compared to the 1-12 Hornets and Robert Mack. Dixon ended the month with a pair of 20+ games, the first two 20-point games of his career.












Notable Injuries

Philadelphia
Kevin Porter (SG, 85) - left hand fracture, 2-4 weeks

Milwaukee
Elias Catchings (SF, 75) - broken right leg, 4-6 weeks

Chicago
Isaiah Stewart (C, 83) - high right ankle sprain, 2-4 weeks

Los Angeles Clippers
Karl-Anthony Towns (C, 84) - torn left achilles, 2-4 months

Memphis
Marcel Hampton (SF, 77) - left knee tendinitis, 4-6 weeks

Charlotte
Anthony Edwards (SF, 82) - torn left ACL, 4-6 months

New York
Jalen Johnson (SF, 84) - hyperextended right elbow, 2-4 weeks

Denver
Michael Porter Jr. (PF, 82) - high left ankle sprain, 2-4 weeks

Indiana
Caleb Love (G, 81) - dislocated left patella, 6-8 weeks

Detroit
Ziaire Williams (SF, 82) - broken left wrist, 2-4 weeks
Evan Mobley (PF, 90) - pulled left calf, 1-2 weeks

Golden State
Keon Fogg (SG, 70) - torn left ACL, 2-4 months

[studbucket]

Absolutely love the update and the format. Almost too many things for me to respond to and take in, but the detail, opinion, and structure is awesome, and you know I like the pictures.


I am loving how well Qualls is playing. Maybe The team tries to make the playoffs this year? Bring Giannis back to support him since things are falling apart in Dallas?