Canelo vs GGG III

[steelerfan]

Hello fight fans, it is Friday and that means it is time for our final simulation of the upcoming Gennady Golovkin-Canelo Alvarez super middleweight fight that will take place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas tomorrow night.

Let's get right to the action.

In the fight's opening round both fighters came out swinging with Golovkin landing 15 scoring punches and Alvarez connecting 12 times.

In Round 2 Golovkin hurt Alvarez at the 0:17 mark but Alvarez did not go down and he survived the assault that followed. Later in the round, at the 2:18 mark, Canelo landed a blow at an odd angle that caused some swelling to GGG's right eye (Event 25). The round was evenly fought with Golovkin holding a 10-9 edge in scoring blows.

The 3rd round left nothing to separate the fighters as each scored with 9 punches.

In round number 4 GGG outpaced Canelo, landing 4 more scoring punches than his adversary (12-8). The key exchange came at 2:35 when Golovkin again hurt Alvarez, but again Canelo did not go down and he survived to the bell.

Alvarez turned the tables in the 5th round with an 11-7 advantage in scoring blows, per CompuBox.

At the midpoint of the fight, after Round 6, Golovkin was clearly holding a slim lead. He connected 10 times on scoring punches in the 6th, while Alvarez managed to connect 7 times.

In Round 7, the fight began to turn. Canelo Alvarez landed 12 scoring punches and GGG was completely shutout as he failed to connect at all.

It was more of the same in the 8th round, Alvarez taking a 15-4 punch advantage as he continued to keep Golovkin at bay while picking GGG's defense apart. Referee Russell Mora Jr was forced to warn Canelo for striking Gennady with his left elbow at the 0:54 mark.

An interesting 9th round saw Golovkin hit the canvas at the 0:40 mark but it was justifiably ruled a push (Event 22). Later in the round Golovkin did a little dance as he showboated after scoring a left-right combination, showing his supporters that he was okay (Event 69). In total for the round, Alvarez landed 8 punches while Golovkin connected 5 times.

Things slowed down in the 10th round with GGG fatigued. The round had just 9 scoring punches with a 5-4 advantage going to Alvarez.

Canelo picked up the pace in the 11th, landing 13 scoring blows to Golovkin's 6.

In the fight's final frame, Canelo doubled-up on GGG as Alvarez connected on 10 scoring punches to Golovkin's 5.

Alvarez wound up with 119 scoring punches in the final simulation, while Golovkin had 87.

Our third simulation went the distance, just as the first two had. This time, using the full game rules of Glory Days Boxing. Again, we had to go to the scorecards to determine the outcome.

Dave Moretti scored the bout 116-114, Steve Weisfeld also scored the bout 116-114, and David Sutherland scored the bout 115-114 all in favor of the winner and STILL Super Middleweight Champion of the World - Canelo Alvarez!

We used all three game modes to simulate this fight and they all agreed with the fact that the fight went all 12 rounds but also that Alvarez won unanimously. What I found most interesting is that in each simulation GGG won the early rounds or, at least, fought evenly. It was the later rounds where Canelo won these fights.

Here is a breakdown of what the total scoring by round looked like in our simulations:

Round 1 88-84 GGG
Round 2 88-80 GGG
Round 3 87-86 Alvarez
Round 4 86-85 Alvarez
Round 5 88-84 Alvarez
Round 6 86-86
Round 7 89-82 Alvarez
Round 8 90-81 Alvarez
Round 9 86-82 Alvarez
Round 10 89-82 Alvarez
Round 11 88-83 Alvarez
Round 12 87-84 Alvarez

Per these few simulations, Glory Days Boxing appears to be looking for another full 12 rounds between these two combatants tomorrow night with Alvarez winning unanimously. The scoring was closest in the full version of the game, amongst the simulations, so I'll be interested to see what actually happens.

In our three sims, GGG registered the only knockdown, and he was never "hurt". On the other hand, Canelo was hurt on three separate occasions (including the knockdown). Maybe this can offer some hope to those rooting for GGG, like myself.

Per our small sample size of simulations, Golovkin should be expected to win the early rounds, and either be leading or relatively even at the midpoint of the fight (he was down 57-57, 56-58, 57-57 in the Quick Play sim) but Alvarez will leave little doubt as the fight wears on.

Do you think the real fight will look like our simulations? I'd be curious to hear what you think about these three sims and how they compare or contrast with what you think will really take place tomorrow night.

Whatever happens, I'm sure we are all hoping for a great fight. These simulations will definitely be in the back of my mind tomorrow night as I watch the fight unfold!

Thanks for following along over the last few days. I'm hoping to be available in this thread tomorrow night to chat about the fight as it is ongoing. If you're able jump in!

[Money99]

Fantastic, thanks so much for doing this steelerfan!

You're right in that all 3 simulations, it was GGG being the one who tired down the stretch.
In real life, he did seem more fatigued than Alvarez in the later rounds of their 2nd fight. But at the same time, I think Canelo threw less punches in the 2nd half of their fight too.

I think the real fight will play out similarly.
I can see GGG being even after 6, but it'll be interesting to see which Alvarez we see in the 2nd half of the fight.
Canelo was gassed early against Bivol. Is it because of the extra weight? Because of Bivol's multi-punch combo's and pressure? Maybe both?
I'm guessing GGG is going to use the same strategy as Bivol. However, will he have enough power and stamina to fight that way for 12? And at 168, will his power carry enough to make Alvarez cautious?

[steelerfan]

Quote: Originally Posted by Money99

Fantastic, thanks so much for doing this steelerfan! You're right in that all 3 simulations, it was GGG being the one who tired down the stretch. In real life, he did seem more fatigued than Alvarez in the later rounds of their 2nd fight. But at the same time, I think Canelo threw less punches in the 2nd half of their fight too. I think the real fight will play out similarly. I can see GGG being even after 6, but it'll be interesting to see which Alvarez we see in the 2nd half of the fight. Canelo was gassed early against Bivol. Is it because of the extra weight? Because of Bivol's multi-punch combo's and pressure? Maybe both? I'm guessing GGG is going to use the same strategy as Bivol. However, will he have enough power and stamina to fight that way for 12? And at 168, will his power carry enough to make Alvarez cautious?

No problem, my friend. I'm glad that I had the time this week to do these sims. I've been working from home the last couple weeks ("working" used in the loosest possible sense) and I've been taking some courses online to get a certification that I'll need for my work soon.

Between the monotony of those courses, being incredibly lazy, and having played 8 games of Strat-O-Matic Super Advanced Pro Football over the course of about 10 days I was looking for something to change gears. This was just what I needed!

As you are aware, I'm a bit of a casual boxing fan. While my interest is higher than it ever has been because of Glory Days Boxing, I'm still not a hardcore Boxing guy. Still, I'm as excited for this fight as I have been for any fight in probably 15 years and it's all because of you asking for these simulations so thank you!

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[Money99]

Quote: Originally Posted by steelerfan

No problem, my friend. I'm glad that I had the time this week to do these sims. I've been working from home the last couple weeks ("working" used in the loosest possible sense) and I've been taking some courses online to get a certification that I'll need for my work soon. Between the monotony of those courses, being incredibly lazy, and having played 8 games of Strat-O-Matic Super Advanced Pro Football over the course of about 10 days I was looking for something to change gears. This was just what I needed! As you are aware, I'm a bit of a casual boxing fan. While my interest is higher than it ever has been because of Glory Days Boxing, I'm still not a hardcore Boxing guy. Still, I'm as excited for this fight as I have been for any fight in probably 15 years and it's all because of you asking for these simulations so thank you! Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

LOL, it's funny you say that.
My interest in boxing has taken a hit lately and it was your Universe that has gotten me back into it.
Again, thanks for doing this. Really appreciate it and thoroughly enjoy these sims.
Have a great weekend!

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[steelerfan]

Is anyone going to be watching this tonight? I've had it on since the Pre-lims.

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[Money99]

I didn't order it.
I'm a coward and didn't want to watch an old GGG get schooled.
And from what I'm reading online that's exactly what's happened over the first four rounds.

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[steelerfan]

Quote: Originally Posted by Money99

I didn't order it. I'm a coward and didn't want to watch an old GGG get schooled. And from what I'm reading online that's exactly what's happened over the first four rounds. Sent from my CLT-L04 using Tapatalk

GGG turned it on in rounds 9-11 but it's too late without a stoppage.

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[steelerfan]

I have it 116-113 Alvarez but wtf do I know?

Official cards:

Moretti 116-112 Alvarez
Sutherland 115-113 Alvarez
Weisfeld 115-113 Alvarez

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