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2021 March Madness Experimental Prediction Formula

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Old 03-19-2021, 02:23 PM   #1
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2021 March Madness Experimental Prediction Formula

I have watched ZERO college basketball this year, but I always enjoy March Madness. I also enjoy mathematics, statistics, and analytics. So, I wanted to try to look at key team stats and come up with a prediction formula. And, I did it. I will explain the process below then provide the "Team Rating" and their matchups. I'll bold the ones that are close enough to be interesting.

Each metric respectively rated from 0-10 based on its relation to the national best (10) or national worst (0).

Metrics are weighed by importance (my choice) and tallied for a total rating:

Strength of Schedule: 25%
Longest Winstreak: 5%
Wins in Last 10 Games: 10%
Offensive Efficiency: 20%
Defensive Efficiency: 20%
Effective FG%: 5%
Opp. Effective FG%: 5%
Turnover %: 5%
Opp. Turnover %: 5%
Offensive Rebound %: 5:%
Opp. Offensive Rebound %: 5%

Ratings/Matchups

1 - Gonzaga (8.3) ~ highest rated team
16 - Norfolk State (4.0)
16 - Appalachian State (3.9)

8 - Oklahoma (5.7)
9 - Missouri (5.0)

5 - Creighton (6.2)
12 - UC Santa Barbara (5.8)

4 - Virginia (6.1)
13 - Ohio (5.3)

6 - USC (6.2)
11 - Drake (6.0)
~ upset alert
11 - Wichita St. (5.3)

3 - Kansas (6.5)
14 - Eastern Washington (5.1)

7 - Oregon (6.0)
10 - VCU (5.6)

2 - Iowa (6.8)
15 - Grand Canyon (5.0)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
1 - Michigan (6.9)
16 - Texas Southern (4.6)
16 - Mt. St. Mary's (3.6)

8 - LSU (5.7)
9 - St. Bonaventure (6.1) ~ lower-seed favorite

5 - Colorado (6.4)
12 - Georgetown (5.3)

4 - Florida State (6.1)
13 - UNC Greensboro (5.1)

6 - BYU (5.6)
11 - UCLA (5.4)
~ upset alert
11 - Michigan St. (5.0)

3 - Texas (6.3)
14 - Abilene Christian (5.9)
~ one of the closest 3/14 matchups

7 - Uconn (6.2)
10 - Maryland (5.6)

2 - Alabama (6.6)
15 - Iona (4.5)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

1 - Baylor (7.7)
16 - Hartford (3.9)

8 - North Carolina (5.9)
9 - Wisconsin (5.8)
~very close; great seeding by committee

5 - Villanova (6.1)
12 - Winthrop (5.8)
~upset alert

4 - Purdue (6.0)
13 - North Texas (5.6)
~another interesting 4/13

6 - Texas Tech (6.4)
11 - Utah State (6.2)
~upset alert

3 - Arkansas (6.6)
14 - Colgate (6.0) ~very high rating for #14 seed; watch out

7 - Florida (5.5)
10 - Virginia Tech (5.6)

2 - Ohio State - (6.0) ~ very low rating for #2 seed
15 - Oral Roberts (4.2)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

1 - Illinois (7.3)
16 - Drexel (4.2)

8 - Loyola Chicago (6.8) ~ excellent rating for #8 seed; dark horse
9 - Georgia Tech (5.9)

5 - Tennessee (6.2)
12 - Oregon State (5.0)

4 - Oklahoma State (5.9)
13 - Liberty (5.9)
~big-time upset alert

6 - San Diego State (6.9) ~great rating; dark horse
11 - Syracuse (5.4)

3 - West Virginia (5.7) ~bad rating for a #3 seed
14 - Morehead State (4.9)

7 - Clemson (5.7)
10 - Rutgers (5.5)

2 - Houston (7.5)
15 - Cleveland State (4.0)
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Old 03-28-2021, 12:50 PM   #2
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Re: 2021 March Madness Experimental Prediction Formula

For anyone wondering, I filled out a bracket on the ESPN using these ratings or only these ratings. It currently sits in the 94.4 percentile a 1560 max (quite a lot compared to other brackets). What I am seeing is that it was pretty shoddy the first two rounds (specifically its calls on San Diego State, Illinois, Oregon State, Oral Roberts, etc.) but I believe it did a good job picking the deeper round teams.
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Old 04-06-2021, 12:26 PM   #3
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Re: 2021 March Madness Experimental Prediction Formula

The bracket finished in the 93.5 percentile despite Gonzaga losing. If the Zags and Michigan would have won, it would have finished in 99.9 percentile.
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