2021 March Madness Experimental Prediction Formula

[Tyro11]

I have watched ZERO college basketball this year, but I always enjoy March Madness. I also enjoy mathematics, statistics, and analytics. So, I wanted to try to look at key team stats and come up with a prediction formula. And, I did it. I will explain the process below then provide the "Team Rating" and their matchups. I'll bold the ones that are close enough to be interesting.

Each metric respectively rated from 0-10 based on its relation to the national best (10) or national worst (0).

Metrics are weighed by importance (my choice) and tallied for a total rating:

Strength of Schedule: 25%
Longest Winstreak: 5%
Wins in Last 10 Games: 10%
Offensive Efficiency: 20%
Defensive Efficiency: 20%
Effective FG%: 5%
Opp. Effective FG%: 5%
Turnover %: 5%
Opp. Turnover %: 5%
Offensive Rebound %: 5:%
Opp. Offensive Rebound %: 5%

Ratings/Matchups

1 - Gonzaga (8.3) ~ highest rated team
16 - Norfolk State (4.0)
16 - Appalachian State (3.9)

8 - Oklahoma (5.7)
9 - Missouri (5.0)

5 - Creighton (6.2)
12 - UC Santa Barbara (5.8)

4 - Virginia (6.1)
13 - Ohio (5.3)

6 - USC (6.2)
11 - Drake (6.0) ~ upset alert
11 - Wichita St. (5.3)

3 - Kansas (6.5)
14 - Eastern Washington (5.1)

7 - Oregon (6.0)
10 - VCU (5.6)

2 - Iowa (6.8)
15 - Grand Canyon (5.0)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
1 - Michigan (6.9)
16 - Texas Southern (4.6)
16 - Mt. St. Mary's (3.6)

8 - LSU (5.7)
9 - St. Bonaventure (6.1) ~ lower-seed favorite

5 - Colorado (6.4)
12 - Georgetown (5.3)

4 - Florida State (6.1)
13 - UNC Greensboro (5.1)

6 - BYU (5.6)
11 - UCLA (5.4) ~ upset alert
11 - Michigan St. (5.0)

3 - Texas (6.3)
14 - Abilene Christian (5.9) ~ one of the closest 3/14 matchups

7 - Uconn (6.2)
10 - Maryland (5.6)

2 - Alabama (6.6)
15 - Iona (4.5)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

1 - Baylor (7.7)
16 - Hartford (3.9)

8 - North Carolina (5.9)
9 - Wisconsin (5.8) ~very close; great seeding by committee

5 - Villanova (6.1)
12 - Winthrop (5.8) ~upset alert

4 - Purdue (6.0)
13 - North Texas (5.6) ~another interesting 4/13

6 - Texas Tech (6.4)
11 - Utah State (6.2) ~upset alert

3 - Arkansas (6.6)
14 - Colgate (6.0) ~very high rating for #14 seed; watch out

7 - Florida (5.5)
10 - Virginia Tech (5.6)

2 - Ohio State - (6.0) ~ very low rating for #2 seed
15 - Oral Roberts (4.2)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

1 - Illinois (7.3)
16 - Drexel (4.2)

8 - Loyola Chicago (6.8) ~ excellent rating for #8 seed; dark horse
9 - Georgia Tech (5.9)

5 - Tennessee (6.2)
12 - Oregon State (5.0)

4 - Oklahoma State (5.9)
13 - Liberty (5.9) ~big-time upset alert

6 - San Diego State (6.9) ~great rating; dark horse
11 - Syracuse (5.4)

3 - West Virginia (5.7) ~bad rating for a #3 seed
14 - Morehead State (4.9)

7 - Clemson (5.7)
10 - Rutgers (5.5)

2 - Houston (7.5)
15 - Cleveland State (4.0)

[Tyro11]

For anyone wondering, I filled out a bracket on the ESPN using these ratings or only these ratings. It currently sits in the 94.4 percentile a 1560 max (quite a lot compared to other brackets). What I am seeing is that it was pretty shoddy the first two rounds (specifically its calls on San Diego State, Illinois, Oregon State, Oral Roberts, etc.) but I believe it did a good job picking the deeper round teams.

[Tyro11]

The bracket finished in the 93.5 percentile despite Gonzaga losing. If the Zags and Michigan would have won, it would have finished in 99.9 percentile.

[markohenry]

Hello, I am very glad to see this post about the 2021 March Madness Experimental Prediction Formula. I really like this mathematical formula, Actually, I am a final year student of mathematics, Now I am working as a contributor at this math educational forum where we shared different types of mathematical equations, questions with answers that can help the student solve their academic math problems.

[markohenry]

Quote: Originally Posted by markohenry

Hello, I am very glad to see this post about the 2021 March Madness Experimental Prediction Formula. I really like this mathematical formula, Actually, I am a final year student of mathematics, Now I am working as a contributor at this math educational forum where we shared different types of mathematical equations, questions with answers that can help the student solve their academic math problems.

I also love to play basketball.