Week 12 Discussion

[KSUowls]

The chaotic weekend that you described where all those teams lose is technically possible but it is so improbable that it isn't worth regulating. If uga, OSU, Clemson, tcu and USC all lose then it would be the first time that ever having that many top teams lose in 1 weekend. We have never even come close to something like that in over 100 years of college football and certainly not since conference championship games became a thing.

It would be a case of managing to the exception. And in this case the exception is as close to being actually impossible as you can get.

For arguments sake though. If the stars aligned and some kind of beyond freakish anomaly did happen for all those teams to lose then yeah I'm fine with Iowa getting in or whomever is the top rated. Because the alternative is that conference championship games are nothing more than glorified exhibitions as they are for both UGA and the OSU/Michigan winner this year.

The CCG winner requirement also opens the door to more none P5 schools. While a scenario where all of the top P5 schools lose their conference simply won't happen. There is a chance that 1 or maybe 2 of them do lose in certain years which then opens the door to more non traditional CFP participants.

Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk

[canes21]

Yea, that is too improbable of a situation to really worry about. Should that many upsets happen, then it is clearly a chaotic year that will lead to a chaotic playoff tree that is an outlier and is not representative of how the system works.

Realistically, we're going to probably see an upset, potentially two at most, but we're likely going to be left with a 13-0 UGA, 13-0 Michigan/Ohio State, and then the upset is more likely to happen in one of the other conference championship games. If that does happen, then the playoffs are going to be easy to figure out because whoever lost between Clemson, TCU, and USC gets left out and the other two make it in at 13-0 or 12-1. Now, what's more likely than the chaotic upset city is all the games follow chalk and we're stuck debating between 12-1 Clemson and 12-1 USC, and, to me, that's not a bad place to be in. It will suck for whoever doesn't make it, and people will cry for expansion, but this will be what, the 2nd actual time a 5th team had a case for making the playoffs? It doesn't happen frequently enough to actually worry about.

Point is, teams need to earn their way into the playoffs and we shouldn't just give teams mulligans because we think they are talented. A team like Tennessee had their shot and lost to UGA. It ended up not mattering because they came back down to reality and lost to South Carolina also, but what is next? Are people going to sit here and act like the loser of Michigan/Ohio State still deserve a chance to be in the playoffs? Are we going to say UGA still gets in even if they lose to LSU?

What happens if UGA goes 13-0 and gets the #1 seed then loses the semi-final game? Do we just give them mulligan and allow them to play for the championship anyways? Yea, I am being facetious, but that's because there are way too many people out there that really love to hand out mulligans to all of these teams. What happens on the field needs to matter more than anything.

[LowerWolf]

Quote: Originally Posted by canes21

What happens on the field needs to matter more than anything.

Agreed.

Let's say it's all chalk from here on out. Ohio State beats Michigan in a close game, Georgia and TCU both win out. So Georgia, Ohio State and TCU are in.

Why is Michigan eliminated for losing at Ohio State while Clemson gets a pass for losing to Notre Dame in a noncompetitive game? Michigan would have a better loss than Clemson and I'd argue Michigan's win over Penn State trumps any of Clemson's wins.

And even if we eliminate Michigan, how is there even a debate between Clemson and USC? Clemson has a terrible loss and would have one win (UNC) over a CFP Top 25 team. USC has a tough loss (on a 2-point conversion) at Utah and would have CFP Top 25 wins over Oregon State, UCLA, whoever it plays in the Pac 12 title game and, oh yeah, that Notre Dame team that throttled Clemson.

Let's say it's chalk other than LSU upsets Georgia. So Ohio State and TCU are in. USC is likely the third team in for the reasons listed above. That leaves Clemson and LSU for the final spot since we're eliminating teams that didn't win their conference.

So we either reward Clemson for running through a mediocre ACC while giving them a pass for Notre Dame. Or we give LSU two mulligans (FSU and UT). Meanwhile Georgia (arguably has the two best wins of the season) and Michigan are out.

I think the conference championship game is my biggest issue. Georgia has proven itself to be the best team in the SEC this year and is a lock for the playoff. If you made winning your conference a requirement, then Georgia has nothing to gain and everything to lose by playing that extra game (ask 2017 Auburn how it feels about that). Meanwhile, LSU gets a mulligan for Tennessee, and has nothing to lose and everything to gain.

I'd be a lot more open to a conference championship requirement if all conferences were 10 teams with a nine-game conference schedule and no championship game. But we know that's never going to happen.

[LowerWolf]

Quote: Originally Posted by canes21

Point is, teams need to earn their way into the playoffs and we shouldn't just give teams mulligans because we think they are talented.

I feel like this sums up Clemson perfectly. Until UNC lost to Tech last week, it had pretty much the same resume as Clemson, yet the Heels weren't sniffing the playoff.

[Amoo316]

I've got Michigan over OSU, but either way a close loss and some chalk or chaos I think the loser gets a very close look.

I think the "non bias" committee will favor a non conference champ OSU over UM in a last second loss, but that's just me. OSU tends to get the benefit of the doubt over other programs in this system.

I think as long as UGA doesn't lose to LSU, both UM and OSU have a great chance of getting in after a close loss. USC would have to really blow out Oregon in the PAC12 title game to leapfrog one of them, but especially OSU.

[canes21]

Quote: Originally Posted by LowerWolf

Agreed. Let's say it's all chalk from here on out. Ohio State beats Michigan in a close game, Georgia and TCU both win out. So Georgia, Ohio State and TCU are in. Why is Michigan eliminated for losing at Ohio State while Clemson gets a pass for losing to Notre Dame in a noncompetitive game? Michigan would have a better loss than Clemson and I'd argue Michigan's win over Penn State trumps any of Clemson's wins. Both are 1-loss teams in this scenario. One has a conference championship, the other doesn't. And even if we eliminate Michigan, how is there even a debate between Clemson and USC? Clemson has a terrible loss and would have one win (UNC) over a CFP Top 25 team. USC has a tough loss (on a 2-point conversion) at Utah and would have CFP Top 25 wins over Oregon State, UCLA, whoever it plays in the Pac 12 title game and, oh yeah, that Notre Dame team that throttled Clemson. I agree that if chalk plays out USC definitely deserves to go in ahead of Clemson. Let's say it's chalk other than LSU upsets Georgia. So Ohio State and TCU are in. USC is likely the third team in for the reasons listed above. That leaves Clemson and LSU for the final spot since we're eliminating teams that didn't win their conference. So we either reward Clemson for running through a mediocre ACC while giving them a pass for Notre Dame. Or we give LSU two mulligans (FSU and UT). Meanwhile Georgia (arguably has the two best wins of the season) and Michigan are out. If this happens, I personally think Clemson deserves to go in ahead of LSU. They won more, lost less. They'll also have the win to LSU's loss versus their lone common opponent. Georgia and Michigan being out aren't issues here because both had their chances to stay alive when playing LSU and Ohio State. They directly caused themselves to be eliminated. I think the conference championship game is my biggest issue. Georgia has proven itself to be the best team in the SEC this year and is a lock for the playoff. If you made winning your conference a requirement, then Georgia has nothing to gain and everything to lose by playing that extra game (ask 2017 Auburn how it feels about that). Meanwhile, LSU gets a mulligan for Tennessee, and has nothing to lose and everything to gain. I'd be a lot more open to a conference championship requirement if all conferences were 10 teams with a nine-game conference schedule and no championship game. But we know that's never going to happen.

Responses above in red.

Quote: Originally Posted by LowerWolf

I feel like this sums up Clemson perfectly. Until UNC lost to Tech last week, it had pretty much the same resume as Clemson, yet the Heels weren't sniffing the playoff.

I don't see how this sums Clemson up. Not perfectly. They'll have played 13 games and only have lost 1 of them. That's a damn good year. They aren't blowing everyone out, but I don't care as much about style points. Win the games you play and earn yourself a spot in the playoffs. Clemson has done that nearly flawlessly to this point.