College Football Off Topic

[illwill10]

Quote: Originally Posted by southernmetalhead

That's insane considering USC and UCLA had already left by that point. Also, I had previously read that commissioner Kliavkoff was "blindsided" by USC and UCLA leaving but other sources said they were trying to get out in the 2017-18 region. Larry Scott was forced out at the beginning of 2021 after a long Pac-12 decline. Oh, and the Pac-12 Network which they wanted the total control of was available to 90 million people and only 15 million actually signed up.

Just a series of poor mistakes and bad leadership. That's what happens when you have too many "smartest guys in the room" and not enough business savy guys and football guys in the room. I don't know why they thought they were worth $50M when they lost their top brands. It's like they thought the TV market was set around what Big 10 and SEC were making, it was now their turn in line. The Big 12 was smart enough to cut in line and take that deal.

That PAC 12 network situation should have told them that going the subscription model, isn't going to work. I can respect that they wanted to own 100% of the network, but without the business acumen, it was a bad idea. What's the saying, would you rather have 100% of a dollar or 50% of $20 dollars. If they would have partnered with ESPN from the jump, it would have allowed ESPN to help bring more accessibility to the network. Them saying "Well if you want ESPN, you'll have to accept the PAC-12 network as well".

A lot of this stuff could've been avoided if not for the elitism and arrogance. They had chances to add schools, but felt some schools weren't good enough academically. They should have added Boise State in the Chris Peterson era, or added the Big 12 schools when they had a chance. USC and UCLA rejected expansion couple years ago, because they already had their sights elsewhere. It's like what Florida State and Clemson is doing now, they don't care about expansion because they want to bounce themselves lol

[p_rushing]

Quote: Originally Posted by illwill10

That PAC 12 network situation should have told them that going the subscription model, isn't going to work. I can respect that they wanted to own 100% of the network, but without the business acumen, it was a bad idea. What's the saying, would you rather have 100% of a dollar or 50% of $20 dollars. If they would have partnered with ESPN from the jump, it would have allowed ESPN to help bring more accessibility to the network. Them saying "Well if you want ESPN, you'll have to accept the PAC-12 network as well".

The conference TV networks just aren't worth a ton. ESPN already knew this after the SECN issues. They told the ACC they weren't going to create the ACCN. Then the ACC panicked and they ended up with the GOR and ESPN owning the rights forever. ESPN didn't want to cover all the costs to build the campus studios and other studios, all the on-air costs, etc. Then add trying to reach agreements to carry it and it's a big waste of money.

Don't know how much money the ACC schools are getting but I think the latest info was 4-5 million. While every little bit helps, I don't see that number staying there as more people stream and cut services to watch they actually watch. No one is paying $1 for the ACCN if they have a choice. They may pay $5/m during football and basketball season but that will be it. The shows are terrible.

The SECN has Finebaum to at least fill lots of hours every day, and people will watch that.

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[canes21]

Quote: Originally Posted by illwill10

I would guess they would need NC State to flip because I see the othe three possibly wanting to move to a different conference

One thing the media is failing to report on with this is that Miami abstained from voting, so 2 teams will actually need to be flipped, not just 1. If Miami were to vote, it'd be a no. They aren't going for expansion. All Miami is doing at this point is staying quiet and waiting for the ACC to fall apart, which we all know will happen, just not when. Then their move to the B1G can become official.

[p_rushing]

Quote: Originally Posted by canes21

One thing the media is failing to report on with this is that Miami abstained from voting, so 2 teams will actually need to be flipped, not just 1. If Miami were to vote, it'd be a no. They aren't going for expansion. All Miami is doing at this point is staying quiet and waiting for the ACC to fall apart, which we all know will happen, just not when. Then their move to the B1G can become official.

I was wondering what they were doing supporting it. I was guessing they just didn't care or saw it as a way to force FSU to move quicker.

UM has plenty of money but hasn't been willing to spend it on sports. They could increase payouts to a new conference but right now with the current state of the program they are just a push that won't increase or decrease the payout.

It's 8/15 and nothing has happened but don't know if announcements had to be made before today or by the end of today. Hopefully something happens.

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[canes21]

Quote: Originally Posted by p_rushing

I was wondering what they were doing supporting it. I was guessing they just didn't care or saw it as a way to force FSU to move quicker. UM has plenty of money but hasn't been willing to spend it on sports. They could increase payouts to a new conference but right now with the current state of the program they are just a push that won't increase or decrease the payout. It's 8/15 and nothing has happened but don't know if announcements had to be made before today or by the end of today. Hopefully something happens. Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

From what I've been told, Miami is basically sitting there quietly until there are 8 schools with landing spots. Then you can get the vote to dissolve the ACC and that is a huge deal regarding the GOR.

It's also why I don't expect FSU to do anything today. If they were to give notice they were leaving, they'd be giving up their voting rights within the conference. No point in doing that when odds are within a year or so there will be further expansion by both the SEC and B1G and even the Big 12 which only increases the odds that there are eventually 8 ACC schools with landing spots ready to vote to dissolve the conference.

Clemson and FSU likely get their SEC invites in 2024. Miami gets their B1G invite as well. UNC and UVA are going to get invites as well. The Big 12 is going to be a better option for numerous ACC schools. VT, Duke, and NCST all have outside shots of also getting offers from one of the B1G and SEC.

Once it all aligns, you've got 8 ready to vote and things become easier for all to move. There's basically zero reason to give notice now for any of the achools that have guaranteed landing spots (Clemson, FSU, Miami, UNC) unless their new conferences are going to cover the exit fees and buy their media rights outright. That's not happening right now, so waiting and holding onto your voting power is the right move.

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[p_rushing]

Quote: Originally Posted by canes21

Once it all aligns, you've got 8 ready to vote and things become easier for all to move. There's basically zero reason to give notice now for any of the achools that have guaranteed landing spots (Clemson, FSU, Miami, UNC) unless their new conferences are going to cover the exit fees and buy their media rights outright. That's not happening right now, so waiting and holding onto your voting power is the right move. Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

Schools are locked in for 2 more years if they don't announce by 8/15 ... losing another $60 - 100 million

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[canes21]

Quote: Originally Posted by p_rushing

Schools are locked in for 2 more years if they don't announce by 8/15 ... losing another $60 - 100 million Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

That's if there are no negotiations at all with regards to media buyouts and exit fees. There's certainly a scenario that can play out, and is not a stretch, where once they have 8 schools to vote for dissolution of the ACC an actual vote takes place to do just that, then it becomes much easier for the schools with landing spots to move to their new homes at much lower costs.

Right now Clemson and FSU will likely have homes in the SEC by 2025. Miami, Notre Dame, and at least one of UNC/UVA have a home in the B1G while the other has potential to get into the SEC as well. That's 6 right there.

All the ACC schools know this. It's no secret to them and all schools are working on finding landing spots. Everyone involved knows this isn't going to 2036. There will be a breaking point when there's at least 8 schools ready to go, then things will get moving very very quickly.

And, again, Duke, NCST, and VT have some shot at getting into one of the major two conferences also(though I don't honestly expect more than 1 to do so), and if they get any sort of invite, even if not full-stake at first, you know they are taking it given the current environment. Even just 1 of them making it takes it to 7.

Schools like BC, GT, Louisville, Syracuse, and Wake all know that the ACC is a dead man walking and the Big 12 is going to be a better bet than staying in the ACC. You just need 1 of them to find a home in the Big 12 and you have 8. I personally think multiple of those schools are going to find a new home, taking it past 8 and closer to 10 or 11 schools in the ACC with landing spots.

I've been wrong plenty in my life, but if I had to make an educated guess, I'd expect movement next year. And even if nobody is announcing their intentions of leaving today, I still would not be surprised at all if in 2025 you have all of these current ACC members playing in their new conferences and not waiting until 2026 at the earliest. Once this ball gets rolling, it is turning into a boulder quickly.

[Hooe]

Duke will end up in the SEC, I think.

I just don’t see ESPN letting Duke basketball, the only college basketball program that consistently moves the needle nationally speaking to TV eyeballs, walk to a competitor in FOX Sports or NBC.