JTW's College Football BCS Rankings

[Collegefbfan]

I was going to post mine, but didn't want to take over your thread.

[jasontoddwhitt]

Quote: Originally Posted by Collegefbfan

I was going to post mine, but didn't want to take over your thread.

Honestly, I don’t mind. I’d be interested in seeing them.


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[Collegefbfan]

1 Georgia 9.989
2 Iowa 9.965
3 Oklahoma State 9.845
4 Michigan 9.561
5 Kentucky 9.113
6 Oklahoma 9.084
7 Cincinnati 9.070
8 Wake Forest 8.021
9 Penn State 7.847
10 Notre Dame 7.562
11 Ohio State 7.277
12 Michigan State 7.228
13 Alabama 7.208
14 Wyoming 7.171
15 Oregon 6.966
16 Ole Miss 6.930
17 BYU 6.853
18 SMU 6.675
19 Kansas State 6.649
20 UTSA 6.551
21 San Diego State 6.508
22 Clemson 6.266
23 Texas 6.202
24 Arkansas 5.906
25 Coastal Carolina 5.850

Many think Arkansas should be ahead of Texas because of the beating they gave Texas, but this formula doesn't factor in head to head games. It all plays out in the end. Been doing it for years with this formula. Let me know what you think.

[jasontoddwhitt]

Quote: Originally Posted by Collegefbfan

1 Georgia 9.989 2 Iowa 9.965 3 Oklahoma State 9.845 4 Michigan 9.561 5 Kentucky 9.113 6 Oklahoma 9.084 7 Cincinnati 9.070 8 Wake Forest 8.021 9 Penn State 7.847 10 Notre Dame 7.562 11 Ohio State 7.277 12 Michigan State 7.228 13 Alabama 7.208 14 Wyoming 7.171 15 Oregon 6.966 16 Ole Miss 6.930 17 BYU 6.853 18 SMU 6.675 19 Kansas State 6.649 20 UTSA 6.551 21 San Diego State 6.508 22 Clemson 6.266 23 Texas 6.202 24 Arkansas 5.906 25 Coastal Carolina 5.850 Many think Arkansas should be ahead of Texas because of the beating they gave Texas, but this formula doesn't factor in head to head games. It all plays out in the end. Been doing it for years with this formula. Let me know what you think.

I can definitely tell it's based on RPI, just looking at how some teams are ranked. But hey, I dig it.

What's the scale? To 10?

[6bme]

Michigan in the Top 15 Go Blue 4 Life!!

Quote: Originally Posted by jasontoddwhitt

We're four weeks into the season, and I thought this would be as good as time as any to bust out my Excel skills and start calculating the old BCS rankings. I was always fond of the BCS, I just felt it was a horrible decision to use the rankings to just pick two teams. I'll be calculating using the BCS formula as it was the final season it was used. I'll be using the AP Poll and the USA Today Coaches' Poll as well as the six computer rankings that were used (Sagarin, Massey, Billingsley, Colley, Wolfe, and Anderson). (Note: Wolfe (October) and Anderson (site still has last year's rankings) are not releasing rankings till later in the season. So, I will be averaging the four available ratings. Once I get a fifth computer rating, I will be dropping a team's highest rating. Once all six are available, I will be dropping the highest and lowest rating). Also, I'll be offering a what-if scenario in what if the NCAA expanded the college football playoff to something similar to the FCS. In other words, what would a 24-team field look. All ten FBS conferences will get automatic bids, leaving 14 at-large bids. Without further ado, here is the first edition of the BCS Rankings. NCAA Football Rankings - BCS Rankings - Updated: Sep 26, 2021 RK LW TEAM W L POINTS 1 -- Alabama 4 0 .9889 2 -- Georgia 4 0 .9604 3 -- Oregon 4 0 .8110 4 -- Iowa 4 0 .7985 5 -- Oklahoma 4 0 .7835 6 -- Penn State 4 0 .7597 7 -- Notre Dame 4 0 .7316 8 -- Arkansas 4 0 .6470 9 -- Cincinnati 3 0 .6179 10 -- Ohio State 3 1 .6074 11 -- Florida 3 1 .5950 12 -- Michigan 4 0 .5172 13 -- Ole Miss 3 0 .4978 14 -- BYU 4 0 .4183 15 -- Texas A&M 3 1 .3959 16 -- Michigan State 4 0 .3779 17 -- Oklahoma State 4 0 .3442 18 -- Coastal Carolina 4 0 .3014 19 -- Clemson 2 2 .1795 20 -- UCLA 3 1 .1753 21 -- Texas 3 1 .1522 22 -- Fresno State 4 1 .1407 23 -- Baylor 4 0 .1376 24 -- Auburn 3 1 .1258 25 -- SMU 4 0 .1205 Next Five 26. Kentucky (.1090) 27. Maryland (.0917) 28. Wake Forest (.0883) 29. NC State (.0822) 30. LSU (.0725) College Football Playoff Computers Love (Greatest Difference Over Human Poll Average) 1. Oklahoma State (+.2788) 2. Michigan (+.2742) 3. SMU (+.2692) 4. Texas (+.2367) 5. LSU (+.1612) Computers Hate (Greatest Difference Under Human Poll Average) 1. Cincinnati (-.3569) 2. Oregon (-.2865) 3. Coastal Carolina (-.2271) 4. Florida (-.2175) 5. Fresno State (-.2111)

[jasontoddwhitt]

* With the Wolfe ratings releasing this week, I am now up to five of the six BCS computer systems out (the lone holdout is Anderson & Hester). With that, I am now removing the highest computer rating from each school.

Week 7 BCS Standings

NCAA Football Rankings - BCS Rankings - Updated: Oct 17, 2021
RK	LW	TEAM	W	L	AVG
1	1	Georgia	7	0	1.0000
2	3	Oklahoma	7	0	0.8928
3	4	Cincinnati	6	0	0.8915
4	5	Alabama	6	1	0.8214
5	6	Michigan	6	0	0.7734
6	7	Ohio State	5	1	0.7193
7	10	Oklahoma State	6	0	0.7065
8	8	Penn State	5	1	0.7055
9	2	Iowa	6	1	0.6833
10	11	Michigan State	7	0	0.6119
11	12	Notre Dame	5	1	0.5322
12	9	Kentucky	6	1	0.4829
13	14	Ole Miss	5	1	0.4788
14	13	Oregon	5	1	0.4647
15	15	Coastal Carolina	6	0	0.3342
16	17	Wake Forest	6	0	0.3226
17	20	Texas A&M	5	2	0.2857
18	25	Baylor	6	1	0.2824
19	NR	Auburn	5	2	0.2586
20	24	NC State	5	1	0.2376
21	22	SMU	6	0	0.2043
22	NR	San Diego State	6	0	0.1786
23	NR	Pittsburgh	5	1	0.1302
24	NR	UT-San Antonio	7	0	0.0850
25	NR	Iowa State	4	2	0.0574

Next Five
26. Clemson (0.0502)
27. Florida (0.0429)
28. Texas (0.0319)
29. Utah (0.0296)
30. Air Force (0.0215)

Dropped Out of Top 25
#16 Florida (Now #27)
#18 Arkansas (Now #33)
#19 BYU (Now #32)
#21 Arizona State (Now #34)
#23 Texas (Now #28)
#25 Clemson (Now #26)

College Football Playoff



*No MAC schools scored any points in the BCS spreadsheet. Western Michigan gets the automatic bid being the highest ranked MAC school in four of the five computer systems.

Computers Love (Greatest Over Human Poll Average)
1. Baylor (+.1465)
2. Iowa State (+.1239)
3. Notre Dame (+.1167)
4. Auburn (+.1070)
5. Florida (+.1007)

Computers Hate (Greatest Under Human Poll Average)
1. Oregon (-.5771)
2. Coastal Carolina (-.3213)
3. Wake Forest (-.2738)
4. Michigan State (-.2579)
5. Ohio State (-.2390)

[Collegefbfan]

Kinda crazy that my computer poll is a little different, but also hates Oregon.

[jasontoddwhitt]

Quote: Originally Posted by Collegefbfan

Kinda crazy that my computer poll is a little different, but also hates Oregon.

The computers absolutely hate Oregon. Let's peel back the layers here....

AP Poll: 1,054 votes - .6692 (1,054/1,575) AP Poll average
Coaches Poll: 1,048 votes - .6449 (1,048/1,625) Coaches' Poll average

Sagarin: 19th - 7 points (highest rating struck)
Billingsley: 26th - 0 points
Colley: 25th - 1 point
Massey: 20th - 6 points
Wolfe: 25th - 1 point
Total points: 8 points

CPU Average: .0800 (8/100)

BCS Average: (.6692 + .6449 + .0800)/3 = .4647

It makes sense though. They do have the victory over Ohio State. After that though....

Victories over
5-2 Fresno State (not terrible)
Struggled to beat a 1-5 Cal
Blew out 0-7 Stony Brook (FCS)
Blew out 0-6 Arizona

Then a horrible loss to a marginal Stanford squad.