MLB 15 The Show: Diamond Dynasty Stock Watch (6-15-15)

[BentleyA]

Quote: Originally Posted by MrOldboy

It's nice that Dozier has great OBP and his advanced stats look good, but we're talking about a video game here and one that values skills differently from real life. For instance, his OBP might influence his plate discipline, but the rating that counts more is his contact and a .265 average doesn't translate to something that high in game. They couldn't bring his contact up any more so they upped his power a bit. There isn't much more room for Dozier to grow if he is rated properly in terms of what the game values. We might value his on base skills and above-average power at 2B, but the game has it's own value system in terms of it's overall rating calculation. It's not that SDS doesn't look at advanced stats, they may very well look at them heavily. But in the game they created many of them don't matter. They built a simulation system and gameplay system to works with their ratings. In game a player might be rated very high because of his power ratings, yet in real life his value tanks due to his high strike out rate. In game that low vision rating doesn't affect his calculated value (overall) that much compared to if his power rating was dropped.

All excellent points about trying to tie in something like OBP into the game. They would probably need to revamp their ratings methods (which I think they should), but I still think there is a lot they can do to make it better the way it is now.
Using the Dozier example, they could look at just a few advanced statistics to see the reason for his OBP, slugging, and average. His HR/FB% is awfully high right now at 14.6% (average is 9-10%), but at the same time the % of pitches he hits "hard" or "medium" is pretty high around 83%. This means he is getting good contact a high majority of the time. Once you see that, you can then peak at his BABIP which is just .287. A BABIP of .287 is actually a fair amount below average (MLB average hovers right around .300). When you mix in the fact that he is far above league average for percentage of balls hit either hard or medium with the fact that his BABIP is below average, I think it is very fair to say that his batting average of .265 is by no means an indicator of the contact he is making at the plate. For that reason, they should actually bump his contact up despite him having just a .265 average. Just like my post above, basic statistics such as batting average should never be looked at by themselves. There is always other statistics that show the reason why they are where they are or if they are the product of something else going on.
Basically, I guess what I was just arguing is that a power bump for Dozier is not a horrible thing since he is hitting the ball hard, especially since power in the game is not just used for homer runs (his home run percentage will drop due to his high hr/fb), but I think he should have also gotten a boost in contact as well since his .265 average clearly does not show the solid contact he is really making.

P.S. If any developers read this stuff, I am not trying to bash you guys, I am just trying to help out and can certainly offer more suggestions or help if needed

[VoItage]

Glad to see Betances got an upgrade. 2-3 more and he'll be where he deserves.

[LewisCAVS]

Wade Davis should be upgraded and possibly the first diamond reliever, he is just ridiculous and putting up unbelievable numbers.

[Twinkie12]

Quote: Originally Posted by MrOldboy

It's nice that Dozier has great OBP and his advanced stats look good, but we're talking about a video game here and one that values skills differently from real life. For instance, his OBP might influence his plate discipline, but the rating that counts more is his contact and a .265 average doesn't translate to something that high in game. They couldn't bring his contact up any more so they upped his power a bit. There isn't much more room for Dozier to grow if he is rated properly in terms of what the game values. We might value his on base skills and above-average power at 2B, but the game has it's own value system in terms of it's overall rating calculation. It's not that SDS doesn't look at advanced stats, they may very well look at them heavily. But in the game they created many of them don't matter. They built a simulation system and gameplay system to works with their ratings. In game a player might be rated very high because of his power ratings, yet in real life his value tanks due to his high strike out rate. In game that low vision rating doesn't affect his calculated value (overall) that much compared to if his power rating was dropped.

I agree for the most part and I think he'll stay around an 86. The main problem I had with his initial ratings were that he had EXTREME splits. He was basically a completely different player at the plate against RH and that wasn't really accurate. They fixed that and gve him a little boost with this update.

I could argue his fielding rating could get a small bump, because I think hes borderline elite for his position, but he obviously plays 2B for a reason (he couldn't play SS) so it's not that big a deal to me.

[BentleyA]

Quote: Originally Posted by Twinkie12

I agree for the most part and I think he'll stay around an 86. The main problem I had with his initial ratings were that he had EXTREME splits. He was basically a completely different player at the plate against RH and that wasn't really accurate. They fixed that and gve him a little boost with this update. I could argue his fielding rating could get a small bump, because I think hes borderline elite for his position, but he obviously plays 2B for a reason (he couldn't play SS) so it's not that big a deal to me.

I am honestly not well versed in some of the defensive saber metrics and now that you bring that up, it has motivated me to look more into those haha. I mean i know UZR and defensive WAR (DWAR seems to be very inconsistent though), but not some of the other stuff.

That is really silly about his splits. Taking a quick peak, he has very minimal differences in his splits. Last year he was wOBA .351 LHP/.335 RHP and wRC+ 126 LHP/114 RHP, and a slightly bigger difference in his OPS and slugging but nothing significant.

[MrOldboy]

The devs use the last 3 years to compute their ratings so although his 2014 splits weren't that extreme, his 2012 and 2013 splits were. From what the devs said it was maybe 50% last year and 25% the previous years. Could be mistaken, but they don't just use the previous year to get their ratings. Looking at Dozier's past splits what he started at this year seemed reasonable.

His career split tell this story. 93/141 wRC+

[Twinkie12]

Quote: Originally Posted by BentleyA

I am honestly not well versed in some of the defensive saber metrics and now that you bring that up, it has motivated me to look more into those haha. I mean i know UZR and defensive WAR (DWAR seems to be very inconsistent though), but not some of the other stuff. That is really silly about his splits. Taking a quick peak, he has very minimal differences in his splits. Last year he was wOBA .351 LHP/.335 RHP and wRC+ 126 LHP/114 RHP, and a slightly bigger difference in his OPS and slugging but nothing significant.

Im not all that well versed in defensive metrics either other than UZR and DRS (defensive runs saved) and even those can be a bit sporadic. I judge his defensive mainly upon what I see, as I watch a lot of Twins games, as well as what others see/write about him.