Pack odds no good

[Dolenz]

I bought packs this past weekend and posted this in another thread but will also place it here as well.
----------------------
Okay I did a test this morning because I wanted some packs and I could afford to do it. So I bought 2 of the 20 pack bundles that include at least 3 silver or better cards. Here is how I did (reporting only Gold or better) and the Current buy now value which is what I would try and bid for them on the market

Bundle #1
Strephen Strasburg (87) - Gold - Current market value 7,000 (one of my bundle cards and not pulled from a standard pack)
Anthony Rizzo (92) - Gold - Current Market Value 19,000
Dee Gordon (90) - Gold - Current Market value 21,000
Adrian Beltre (87) - Gold - Current market value 8,100

In this pack in addition to Strasburg as one of my guaranteed silver or betters I also got Ryan Zimmerman and Everth Cabrera. I also picked up 1 gold piece of catcher equipment. These are all worth little on the market. Two of my golds came in the same standard pack.

I did excellent with this bundle. The current value of buying those cards is 55,100 stubs which is more than I paid for both pack bundles combined. I could probably sell them for a little more although I don't think I will sell.

Bundle #2
Starling Marte (86) - Gold - Current market value 10,000

That was it for that 20 packs. My guaranteed silvers were Mike Moustakas, Andrew Cashner and Erik Aybar. All of whom are low silvers. I also picked up anther piece of Gold catcher equipment.

Conclusion
Current market value of big players I picked up was 65,100 stubs which is 25,100 more than I paid for the packs but that was all due to the first bundle and I personally think that I was very lucky.

Just in the standard packs alone I picked up 4 gold players. Of course that is 4 players out of 240 player cards or about a 2.5% chance to get a gold. So even though I got lucky the odds are not great for any one standard pack. Only 3 of my 40 packs had a gold in them.

[RedHawk24]

Lost track of how many packs I have purchased, but I finally got my first gold player (Carlos Gomez, 89, Market Value looks to be around 8k). Pulled him out of a standard pack, so I got my value worth there. I'm still new to DD, I'm never going to put real money into it, and I probably will play it less once the OSFM rosters drop and I start my Franchise. So, that being said, I'm not sure whether it makes more sense for me to keep him or sell him and invest the stubs into more packs.

[bushidobrown]

200 packs pulled and still no diamond?? Wtf? At least I pulled Correa but still not happy

[bushidobrown]

Wow....now I have an obsession with pulling a diamond and still haven't hours after that last post. The odds must be astronomical and at this point I just can't stop laughing at myself for being so foolish. Last year I was pulling diamonds left and right thought Mlb was the only my team type of game that wasn't trying to completely rip you off guess they realized that **** and fixed that this year cause I can't pull one for the life of me. Note to self don't ever buy packs. And I understand that it shouldn't be too easy but **** I bought the deluxe edition and have dumped like 80 bones into it on top of selling players.

[Dolenz]

It's the luck of the draw, pure and simple.


Your odds of pulling a diamond is exactly the same regardless of if you are on Pack 1 or pack 100. Opening 99 packs worth of garbage cards does not increase the chances of getting a good card on pack 100.


To me if seems like far more people are pulling good cards out of packs than they did last year.

[fuuuma]

I got a diamond card that I sold for 40k in my 10 free packs. I also sold some other cards and got up to 50k. I then bought 50 packs and only got 1 gold card(Bautista) sold him for 15k and scraped together another 5k to get 20 more packs. This ended in 0 gold cards. So 70 packs got me 1 gold card. Guess I used up my luck on the 10 free packs. ^^

[bushidobrown]

Quote: Originally Posted by Dolenz

It's the luck of the draw, pure and simple. Your odds of pulling a diamond is exactly the same regardless of if you are on Pack 1 or pack 100. Opening 99 packs worth of garbage cards does not increase the chances of getting a good card on pack 100. To me if seems like far more people are pulling good cards out of packs than they did last year.

Dude I have to respectfully disagree I think you are probably in the minority thinking that people are pulling more diamonds this year than last, but hey maybe I'm wrong but I'm about 300 deep at this point and not one. Hell I couldn't even pull one of the lower end ones let alone someone to build around. But it is what it is.

[bushidobrown]

Now I've pulled good gold cards but every diamond I've pulled has been equipment which I would sell and open more packs. But as far as diamond players they seem to be pretty rare for the most part. Which is a good thing in some ways because last year my team was stacked after the first 2 weeks but I think they've made them a little to rare. Hell I was even getting diamond cards for just logging in, happend twice. But after 300 Packs and no diamonds I think they've gone too far the other way.