Pack Odds and Trout

[Fuimus Troes]

I pulled Trout from a standard pack earlier today and it got me thinking about odds. I know that it's 1:50 for a diamond, but I assume that's for 85-89 players.

Does anyone know if SDS has ever published the odds for pulling high diamonds or Trout? I know the tiers are color-coded this year (purple, something, and then the aqua color I saw when I pulled Trout), so I assume that corresponds to odds.

Any confirmation on this?

[SashaBanksFan4Ever]

Re: Pack Odds and Trout

On 20 I pulled Trout once.

[doubledeuceR6]

Re: Pack Odds and Trout

On 20 I pulled Trout once.

Pulled Trout from a daily rewards pack last year and overall had pretty good pack luck. This year I call BS on those 1:50 odds for diamonds. It was almost a month into the game before I pulled a diamond this year. Pulled a total of 4 now but currently in a 2 week dry spell. Pack luck has just been brutal.

[LastActionHero]

Re: Pack Odds and Trout

Worst pack luck ever this year. Pulled one 86 from 100+ packs.

[papadell]

Re: Pack Odds and Trout

Odds are 1 in 50 pulled out of all packs opened. With considerably more players this year it makes sense that we've all had markedly worse luck.

As for high diamonds, in the 3 years I've played I've never seen anything differentiating. I think it's a safe bet that they are definitely rarer but just how the odds shake out on those has never been said, I don't think.

[brunopuntzjones]

Re: Pack Odds and Trout

They really should adjust the ratings to reflect the fact that 90+ diamonds are rarer. I’ve had good pack luck (Mookie twice, Trout, a bunch of 85-89s) but it’s clear there are two tiers. They should just admit it and do something like:
90-99 diamond
80-80 gold etc

That or keep 85-89 as diamond and repurpose the prestige red diamond from 20 for 90+.

[JoshC1977]

Re: Pack Odds and Trout

Odds are 1 in 50 pulled out of all packs opened. With considerably more players this year it makes sense that we've all had markedly worse luck.

The size of the player base doesn't change anything; it's still a 2% chance of all packs that YOU open. If they adjusted it to ensure only a certain number of cards were floating around, the odds would be even worse and SDS would be mis-branding their odds - which could be quite problematic for them.

[papadell]

Re: Pack Odds and Trout

The size of the player base doesn't change anything; it's still a 2% chance of all packs that YOU open. If they adjusted it to ensure only a certain number of cards were floating around, the odds would be even worse and SDS would be mis-branding their odds - which could be quite problematic for them.

I swore I read something a year or two ago saying it was based off all packs. Maybe not I guess.

Either way my packs suck so [emoji23][emoji23]

[Fuimus Troes]

Re: Pack Odds and Trout

I'm a little unsure of what some of the replies mean -- but it's just common sense that the odds for pulling Trout aren't 1:50. If the odds for pulling him were the same as the odds for pulling an 85, prices wouldn't be what they are. That's just common sense. There were WAY more Aaron Nolas popping upon release than Trouts.

Then there's the lighting colors on pack opening...

Whelp, guess we might never know the true odds of different tier diamonds...

[JoshC1977]

Re: Pack Odds and Trout

I'm a little unsure of what some of the replies mean -- but it's just common sense that the odds for pulling Trout aren't 1:50. If the odds for pulling him were the same as the odds for pulling an 85, prices wouldn't be what they are. That's just common sense. There were WAY more Aaron Nolas popping upon release than Trouts.

Then there's the lighting colors on pack opening...

Whelp, guess we might never know the true odds of different tier diamonds...

Agreed. The odds are 1:50 of pulling a Diamond.

That's all we know and all we ever will know; it's no biggie.

[PRBoricua]

Re: Pack Odds and Trout

I just posted over in the Diamond Dynasty sub-forum, but I just pulled him out of an team affinity pack early this morning for doing the conquest missions.

[jake19ny]

Re: Pack Odds and Trout

Without a doubt the pack odds seem way off this year and while the whole 1 - 50 odds reflect pulling any Diamond it’s evident that it’s much less likely to pull Trout, Acuna, or DeGrom. The price of Trout and Acuna reflect that fact in the market. So despite their blanket odds it is so much more likely to pull a lower tier Diamond and they do not tell us that anywhere.

[Fuimus Troes]

Re: Pack Odds and Trout

Without a doubt the pack odds seem way off this year and while the whole 1 - 50 odds reflect pulling any Diamond it’s evident that it’s much less likely to pull Trout, Acuna, or DeGrom. The price of Trout and Acuna reflect that fact in the market. So despite their blanket odds it is so much more likely to pull a lower tier Diamond and they do not tell us that anywhere.

Yep. Was just looking to see if there was ever any official word on the odds-within-the-odds for Live Series Diamonds. Suffice to say, 1:50 for base, ??? for high, and ??? for Trout. For kicks, I'll guess 1:100 for high and 1:500 for Trout.