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Ranking the Pac 12 QB
Ranking the Pac-12 Quarterbacks
12. Brock Mansion, California (86.03 QB rating, 67-of-137, 48.9% completion, 646 yards, 2 TDs, 5 INTs, sacked 9 times) — Kevin Riley kept his job in his final years at Cal. Enough said.
Riley played the game with a migraine-inducing inconsistency that baffled the mind. He threw for 4 TDs and O INTs against Colorado, but followed that with a 1 TD, 3 INT performance in a 52-31 loss to Nevada. He then preceded to dish out a memorable offering against Arizona, with a 116-yard, 1-INT gem in a 10-9 loss. He totaled 83 yards passing against UCLA, then threw for 240 yards and 2 TDs against a better-than-you-realize Arizona State defense.
If it were humanly possible to remove Riley from the equation, Jeff Tedford would have done so. Cal fans hated Riley. Pac-10 opponents both feared and laughed at him depending on which version showed up — usually the awful one.
Enter Brock Mansion, Zach Maynard, Allan Bridgford or whoever this season. If they couldn’t show enough in practice to get Riley on the bench, they don’t deserve to unseat anyone in these rankings.
Evidence: Once Riley went down with four games remaining, Cal barely beat Washington State and then lost to Oregon, Stanford and Washington. With Mansion at the helm the Bears scored 14 points once and 13 points three times. He threw for one touchdown total!
Hey, at least he’s consistent.
Shane Vereen is gone as well, so defenses won’t be kept honest.
It’s gonna get ugly.
11. Richard Brehaut, UCLA (110.22 QB rating, 119-of-212, 56.1% completion, 1,296 yards, 6 TDs, 7 INTs, sacked 14 times, 4 rushing TDs) — Rick Neuheisel is on the hot seat — big time. It isn’t just the fact that recruiting has fallen off a cliff in the last couple of years — they received verbal commitments from just two four-stars and filled the class with unranked and two-star kids — it’s that Neuheisel can’t seem to develop even an average quarterback, despite manning the position himself in college.
Brehaut threw for 321 yards and 3 TDs against Arizona State in a 55-34 loss, so he has shown signs of being able to sling it, which is more than UCLA has been able to say about a starter in quite some time. Of course, the week before Brehaut went 5-of-14 for 42 yards against Washington.
Stomach punch!
He’ll improve, but no guarantee that UCLA’s quarterback position won’t be manned by “generic, can’t-move-the ball X” again this year. Recycle, reduce, reduce some more….um?
10. Tyler Hansen, Colorado (129.50, 112-of-164, 68.3% completion, 1,102 yards, 6 TDs, 6 INTs, sacked 16 times) — The Colorado program is in shambles. The hope is that a change of conference scenery can help resurrect this once-proud program that went to a BCS bowl game just 10 years ago.
A big part of that drop off has been the poor quarterback play. Hansen legitimately earned the starting job with a strong spring camp and a spring game that saw him go 18-of-19 for 246 yards and three touchdowns. During his time on the field he led the Buffaloes on six touchdown drives. The downside? It was only against their own defense.
Time will tell if he can carry his spring momentum into fall. I think he will to some extent, but don’t expect miracles. There is a reason Colorado is expected to perform poorly in a down-year in the Pac-12 South.
9. Keith Price, Washington (106.42 QB rating, 19-of-37, 164 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, sacked 5 times) — A gut call here. In games in which he did play, the sophomore-to-be didn’t panic, he managed the game and didn’t make mistakes. Is he going to set the Pac-12 on fire? No, but he does have 1,415 yard, 9 TD rusher Chris Polk returning, as well as 1,000-yard, 12-TD receiver Jermaine Kearse.
Price exploded in the spring game for 3 passing touchdowns and one on the ground, going 20-of-28 for 212 yards. It was a performance that will likely secure him a significant lead for the starting role in the fall.
The other option, who was a redshirt last season, but has a pedigree unlike any other, is Nick Montana. Yes, Joe Montana’s son.
Either one is likely going to have to deal with a lot of pressure. First-round pick Jake Locker spent most of last season running for his life.
8. Ryan Katz, Oregon State (126.41 QB rating, 213-of-355, 60.0% completion, 2,401 yards, 17 TDs, 11 INTs, sacked 33 times) — It will help Katz that James Rodgers is back as his favorite target. Unfortunately for Oregon State, his brother has moved on to the NFL. The threat of Quizz breaking off a big run last year kept teams a little more honest than they will be this year. That’s a major UH-OH for a team that already allowed Katz to be sacked 33 times last season.
Katz has a strong arm and decent size (6-1, 209-lbs.), but has struggled to put it together thus far. As will be a recurring theme for the remainder of this list of quarterbacks, he will probably improve his numbers and poise as a junior this season. Just don’t expect him to keep the Mike Riley “flirt-with-Top-25” tradition alive.
Katz threw 6 INTs (with just 2 TDs) in Oregon State’s final two games — against Stanford and Oregon. He didn’t get better in big games, instead he folded (as Civil War viewers saw on the first play when Casey Matthews left him limp on the turf).
No Quizz? A problem.
7. Jordan Wynn, Utah (139.85 QB rating, 186-of-299, 62.2% completion, 2,334 yards, 17 TDs, 10 INTs, sacked 6 times) — Despite his limited size (6-1, 195-lbs.), Wynn is not a runner. He’s a winner, though. He was the MVP of the 2009 Poinsettia Bowl, but missed last year’s bowl game against Boise State, and was a starter at Utah as a true freshman. Don’t get it twisted, this kid is a gamer and is capable of carrying his team in big games.
Look for his stats to make a significant jump even with the move to the Pac-12. As a junior this year, he — like so many others on this list — is expected to make a leap forward as a player. It doesn’t hurt that three of five of his starting linemen return this year.
Utah is eyeing a Pac-12 South championship and their hopes rest on Wynn’s ability to “make the leap” and lead the Utes.
6. Brock Osweiler, Arizona State: (133.44 QB rating, 62-of-109, 56.9% completion, 797 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs, sacked 7 times) — Throw out the totals and the quarterback rating. Osweiler, who may not yet have an iron-grip on the starting job, absolutely dominated when given the opportunity late in the year, throwing for 647 yards, 5 TDs and 0 INTs in wins over UCLA and Arizona in the final two games.
Strikingly, at 6-8 242-lbs., Osweiler isn’t just a big quarterback, he can also avoid pressure. Not exceptionally well, but enough that you can’t call the kid a stiff in the pocket.
Folks may not yet be aware of his talent, but Sun Devil fans believe so completely in his ability to run the offense that ASU is talking about the possibility of winning the Pac-12 South and beyond (as has been chronicled by multiple sources who visited the team this spring).
Osweiler is the quarterback who could move up this list more than any other. He’s breaking out. Can he sustain it for a full season?
5. Jeff Tuel, Washington State: (133.31 QB rating, 219-of-366, 59.8% completion, 2,780 yards, 18 TDs, 12 INTs, 135 carries, 199 yards, 1.5 ypc, 1 TD, sacked 48 times) — Tuel is another quarterback expected to make “the leap” to elite in a Pac-12 full of talented quarterbacks. Don’t let the numbers fool you: his completion percentage is lowered due to his big-play, deep-ball throws and the fact that he is often running for his life. The big-play frequency isn’t likely to diminish anytime soon at Washington State. They went deep early and often in every spring scrimmage and Tuel has the ability to put deep balls on the receivers’ outside shoulder with consistency, which makes things even easier for 1,000-yard receiver Marquess Wilson and 6-4 red-zone target Jared Karstetter.
What might change is the amount of pressure defenses can get on Tuel. The offensive line looks bigger, deeper and more focused than the group that gave up the second-most sacks in “Division I” football last season. If they can lower that number by 15, it would be a huge plus for the passing game.
Tuel is a strong, if not exceptional, runner — another fact that is masked by the 48 sacks he endured. He carried the ball 16 times or more in each of the last three games, including a 78-yard effort in the win against Oregon State. Washington State will likely turn that number downward early in the season because they simply can’t afford to lose Tuel to injury, but the threat remains — teams will have to respect his scramble ability and play accordingly.
With Tuel, Wazzu is a six-win ceiling team, without him they may not win more than two games.
What stands out most about Tuel is his ability to stay poised and put up numbers despite all the pressure he has to deal with. He simply refuses to melt down and make mistakes, as is so often a characteristic of young quarterbacks, such as NFL draft pick Ryan Mallet of Arkansas, who seemed to toss the ball up for grabs in big games late last year. Tuel didn’t fold when the Cougs hosted Oregon or headed to Stanford, keeping his team in the game until midway through the fourth quarter in both cases.
If Wazzu gets a running back going in the form of seemingly improved Logwone Mitz it will take even more pressure off Tuel and you can expect him to put up All-Pac-12 statistics, but perhaps not the win total.
4. Nick Foles, Arizona: (140.86 QB rating, 286-of-426, 67.1% completion, 3,191 yards, 20 TDs, 10 INTS, 35 carries, -113 yards, -3.2 ypc, 1 TD, sacked 23 times) — At 6-5, 245-lbs. Foles is a pocket passer with the size and arm strength that makes pro scouts take notice. Foles was at his best late in the season (when his team was at its worst), combining for 1,063 yards 9 TDs and just 1 INT against USC, Oregon and Arizona State — all were losses. He had his first multi-interception game of the season (3) in the Wildcats’ devastating 36-10 loss to Oklahoma State in the Alamo Bowl to give Arizona its fifth-straight loss to end the season.
Despite the subpar postseason performance, Noles has all the ability to become an NFL quarterback when his career is over. It doesn’t hurt that his favorite target, Juron Criner, is returning after a better-than-1,000-yard, 10-TD season.
All five Wildcat offensive linemen were seniors last year, so that will make life tough on Foles. Luckily for him, none of the five were considered elite, so replacing them may not be as difficult as it sounds. The new line — and the lack of a consistently healthy, talented running back — means Arizona will likely throw the ball more than ever this season — a focal point of their spring game. Foles yards and touchdowns should be up. The question is with more pressure, will there be significantly more sacks and interceptions?
Arizona has been on the cusp of becoming an elite Pac-10/Pac-12 team since coach Mike Stoops took over eight years ago, but has always fallen short late. Foles gives them their best chance to step up to the next level in Stoops’ tenure.
Can he deliver in a weakened Pac-12 South?
3. Matt Barkley, USC (141.18 QB rating, 236-of-377 / 62.6%, 2,761 yards, 26 TDs, 12 INTs, 34 carries, -17 yards, -0.5 ypc, sacked 16 times) — An argument could be made that Barkley is the second-best quarterback in the Pac-12. He is almost definitely its number two pro QB prospect, behind Andrew Luck of Stanford. USC fans have been spoiled with a lineage of Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart and Mark Sanchez — and Barkley may fall in right alongside that list talent-wise when the junior’s career is all said and done. The problem is that USC simply isn’t as good as they were with the other three quarterbacks at the helm, so his legacy is tarnished. It’s hard to have realistic expectations for a kid who is following such a strong decade of Trojan QBs.
He has all the talent in the world. Standing at 6-2, 220-lbs. with a strong arm, he’s a pocket passer who has shown prolonged glimpses of his talent, but he’s erratic. He struggled mightily at the end of the year against Oregon State and UCLA — combining for 25-of-45 passing for 273 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs, but was brilliant against Cal (over 67 percent completion percentage for 352 yards and 5 TDs) midway through the season. He trended downward as the season progressed — not the type of thing one expects to see in a “rising” sophomore quarterback, even if he was banged up. Not to mention the fact that he was (and is) surrounded by 4 and 5 star talents — players whose athleticism should be giving Barkley’s numbers a dramatic boost compared to, say, UCLA’s Kevin Prince.
With all of that being taken into account, Barkley remains a player who will likely go on to the NFL after this season. USC expects dramatic improvement from him, ala Luck’s stat boost of a season ago, but I’m not entirely sold. He’s very good, but an All-American candidate? Not so sure. Even an All-Pac 12 junior season wouldn’t live up the expectations that were placed on his shoulders when he first arrived.
2. Darron Thomas, Oregon (150.97 QB rating, 222-of-361 / 61.5%, 2,881 yards, 30 TDs, 9 INTs, 93 carries, 486 yards, 5.2 ypc, 5 TDs, sacked 10 times) — Thomas has so many weapons, it’s hard not to look good. That being said, he’s also a really talented quarterback. People who questioned his toughness coming into the National Championship game certainly didn’t leave it with similar feelings. After throwing two INTs in the first quarter, and getting destroyed all night by an aggressive Auburn front seven (and sometimes a safety or two), Thomas led what would have been one of the most memorable drives in college football history if not for a tremendous run by Auburn running back Michael Dyer. With just under five minutes left, trailing by 8, Thomas led an 8-play, 55-yard drive to tie the ballgame. He hung tough on a 4th and 5 to deliver a first down to receiver D.J. Davis — even as an untouched Auburn defender came barreling down on him. After a two-yard touchdown pass to LaMichael James, Thomas handled a poor shotgun snap, rolled to his right and, falling backwards, fired a perfect lob pass to his left that only receiver Jeff Maehl could have made a play on.
Take away Dyer’s run. Say Oregon wins in overtime with a banged-up Cam Newton leading Auburn, and that drive — including Thomas’ two-point conversion throw — go down as one of the best in college football history.
With everything on the line, Thomas delivered. He doesn’t have the tools of Andrew Luck or number three on this list, Matt Barkley, but he delivered in the biggest moment in which any of them have played.
That makes him worthy of the number two spot.
Thomas is an accurate passer, but uses his entire body to sling the ball around — that’s an arm strength issue. It won’t affect him much at the college level, but it likely means he is a relatively limited NFL quarterback prospect (i.e. he’ll be a day two or three selection in a future NFL draft).
Thomas’ overall numbers may drop slightly, as he loses key receivers in Maehl and Davis, as well as three starting offensive linemen. However, he still has more weapons than even Chip Kelly knows what to do with, which is saying something and by all accounts has taken a giant leap forward this spring.
Oregon is the team to beat in the Pac-12 this year and Thomas is a big reason why. He was so good in spring practice that Kelly added defensive backs to the backfield in a passing drill to try to slow the passing game down. Didn’t work — Thomas, no matter how many players were on the field, found the open receiver.
Nationally, Thomas remains overrated as a runner. He is slower than one might expect to the edge and is often caught from behind. The perception around the Pac-12 is that he’s a not-so-poor man’s Dennis Dixon, but in reality he is just not a very dangerous runner. His yards are picked up when defenders flock to LaMichael James, Kenjon Barner, Josh Huff or any of the other weapons Oregon fakes to in an attempt to create space. That being said, he does have a few nice moves to shake defenders so as to not take on direct contact.
As is always the case when one discusses Oregon quarterbacks, it is imperative that a good back-up is in place. The Ducks believe they have that this year in redshirt freshman Bryan Bennett. He has battled some inconsistency this spring, but Duck coaches and faithful all believe they have a future starter and Pac-12 star. If Thomas does go down, however, will he be ready now?
1. Andrew Luck, Stanford (170.16 QB rating, 263-of-372 / 70.7%, 3,338 yards, 32 TDs, 8 INTs, 55 carries, 453 yards, 8.3 ypc, 3 TDs, sacked 6 times) — Luck has everything you’d want in a quarterback. He’s got a great arm, great size (6-5, 235-lbs.), makes great decisions and shows up in big moments (287 yards, 4 TDs in Cardinal’s 40-12 Orange Bowl win over Virginia Tech). Oh, and he’s tough — just ask Cal defensive back Sean Cattouse or USC’s Shareece Wright. Check out the YouTube videos if you haven’t already seen them.
Last year’s Heisman Trophy runner-up took a terrible Stanford team and turned them into one of the elite Pac-12 teams, finishing as the AP’s number four team in the nation last season, even after they lost Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart. Twice during his career he has elevated Stanford to the hottest team in the nation: Stanford torched Oregon (51-42) and USC (55-21) in back-to-back weeks in early November 2009 and last season they ended the year as one of the favorites had there been a “March Madness”-style tournament.
It was because of his aforementioned skill-set, and the departure of Jim Harbaugh, that nearly everyone expected Luck to leave Stanford and become the top pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. He shocked the world and decided to come back, in part, because he wanted to get his degree and win a Pac-12 championship.
I expect his numbers to drop some with the loss of three offensive linemen from last year’s squad, especially when one considers that Luck was sacked less than once every other game last season for a total of six. Nonetheless, Stanford should remain Oregon’s biggest challenge in the Pac-12 North.
The biggest knock on Luck: some scouts think he’s too nice to lead an NFL team and will not take command in the huddle. Contrast that type of scouting report with the likes of Cam Newton or Ryan Mallet and it’s obviously how truly nit-picky that argument is. Plus, he looks like a total dork. The last quarterback who seemed too nice and looked like a total dork? Peyton Manning. Just sayin’!
If Luck should go down with an injury, there isn’t much experience behind him. His two primary back-ups last season (Alex Loukas and Josh Nunes) combined to throw just seven passes.
Stanford — and most NFL scouts — will have their fingers crossed that Luck doesn’t have to worry about an injury anytime soon.
After all, the number one quarterback in the Pac-12 this season is going to be Peyton Manning-level good in the NFL.
Expect another set of rankings early next week — and perhaps a blog post on the new Pac-12 TV contract before then.
http://www.dnews.com/blogs/2011/05/0...nkings-part-2/
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Coach Gruden
14' 12-4
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12' 12-4
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05-05-2011, 03:52 PM
