Statistical impossibility

[MelBosco]

As most of the people who play this game would consider themselves hockey fans, I dont need to point out that a team has only come back from being down 3-0 in a series to win, 3 times in the history of the NHL and 7 game series.

I sim all my games, and this has now happened to me (never for me) 6 times. If I am up 3-0 and they win game 4, its close to a 20% chance that they will go one to run the table.

This has gotten beyond frustrating, not because I think my team should win every time, but because this is impossible.

I won 57 games last season (note to others, priority #1 should be to get a 4.5 star goalie) then rolled the #8 seed Avs 3 straight (14 GF, 2 GA), only for them to come back on me. Now not only is coming back from down 3-0 next to impossible, doing it to a team that finished with almost 30 more pts than you, is beyond impossible.

Has anyone else came across this ( I hesitate to call it) glitch?

[aarondmsu]

Re: Statistical impossibility

I haven't come across that but I agree that the odds have to be in the billions. As Ace from Casino would say "it cannot happen, would not happen!" That's a borderline glitch. I would say you are justified to make sure you save the game before game 4 and resim the games if it happens again.

[m1a2lt]

Re: Statistical impossibility

As most of the people who play this game would consider themselves hockey fans, I dont need to point out that a team has only come back from being down 3-0 in a series to win, 3 times in the history of the NHL and 7 game series.

I sim all my games, and this has now happened to me (never for me) 6 times. If I am up 3-0 and they win game 4, its close to a 20% chance that they will go one to run the table.

This has gotten beyond frustrating, not because I think my team should win every time, but because this is impossible.

I won 57 games last season (note to others, priority #1 should be to get a 4.5 star goalie) then rolled the #8 seed Avs 3 straight (14 GF, 2 GA), only for them to come back on me. Now not only is coming back from down 3-0 next to impossible, doing it to a team that finished with almost 30 more pts than you, is beyond impossible.

Has anyone else came across this ( I hesitate to call it) glitch?

There was the same issue the previous years; I like to call it the first round surge. I haven't reached the playoffs yet on NHL13 but I found the previous year that I would almost always get knocked out in the first round (if I simmed) but if I replayed it manually then simmed, I would slaughter everyone in the later rounds.

[MelBosco]

Re: Statistical impossibility

As Ace from Casino would say "it cannot happen, would not happen!"

That is exactly what I am yelling at the screen.

I think ill take your advice and save after game 3. It feels kind of dirty saving the game to replay it if the outcome doesn't go my way, but as we have said, when the game begins to act in ways that are beyond impossible, I guess saving it is just fighting a corupt system.

[Cletus]

Re: Statistical impossibility

The playoffs have always been terrible in this series. I've had plenty of first round losses and if I don't lose in the first round I get to the cup finals.

[matty09]

Re: Statistical impossibility

It happens to me every time I get into the playoffs. Five years in, and if i sim I lose no matter what. Speaking on behalf of the team I was using, the first year I won 57 games, played them all. And the first three games of each round I simmed and lost. So speaking.. down in the first, second, third and the cup finals 3-0 I came back all 4 rounds to win the cup. Ridiculous isnt it ?

[MelBosco]

Re: Statistical impossibility

It happens to me every time I get into the playoffs. Five years in, and if i sim I lose no matter what. Speaking on behalf of the team I was using, the first year I won 57 games, played them all. And the first three games of each round I simmed and lost. So speaking.. down in the first, second, third and the cup finals 3-0 I came back all 4 rounds to win the cup. Ridiculous isnt it ?

Did you play the games after being down 3-0 from the simming, or did the sim engine give you 3 straight comebacks? I will assume that you played them, because even for this game thats crazy.

Thanks to everyone for the replies. At least now I know that I am not a subject of a cruel experiment to see how long someone can watch the impossible happen over and over before breaking the game in half.

Very strange that this happens (as it seems) more often than not.

[scootermojo]

Re: Statistical impossibility

I've noticed this as well. I'm a huge stats and sports history nerd so I look into other things on sports video games/simulations than just the actual game play.

One of the first things I do when I get the new NHL game each year (and with other sports games) is simulate a season right off the bat to see how the statistical engine works and it's accuracy. Did the same this year with NHL 13....and the first season I simmed there were not one, not two.....BUT THREE TEAMS that came back from a 3-0 hole in the playoffs. In fact, I've simmed probably over 10 to 15 seasons and I think in only 2 of those seasons did it NOT have a team came back from a 3 games to none hole. I've also noticed quite a bit of 3 games to 1 deficits being overcome, too (obviously not as rare as coming back from 3-0...but not as regular as the NHL 13 sim engine illustrates).

I'm currently in my 5th year in GM Mode and every playoff year had at least one team come back from a 3-0 hole and there's been at least two 3-1 series comebacks every single playoff year.

I've actually never seen this quirk/glitch before in any previous EA NHL games....and I've owned everyone since the first edition back in 1991 on Sega. It's a shame, really....I thought they made great strides with the stats engine over the past 2-3 years....and I think for the most part the sim engine this year is the best....but this 3-0 hole comeback in the playoffs is a pretty huge quirk/glitch for hardcore sim and stat geeks like me.

[MelBosco]

Re: Statistical impossibility

There was the same issue the previous years; I like to call it the first round surge. I haven't reached the playoffs yet on NHL13 but I found the previous year that I would almost always get knocked out in the first round (if I simmed) but if I replayed it manually then simmed, I would slaughter everyone in the later rounds.

I have noticed what you call the "first round surge". I have had 7-8 playoff runs in the last little bit (sim all the games), and seasons where both #1 seeds move on is a rare sight indeed. Actually I have not seen it in this latest run of playoff apperances. Every year seeing an 8 VS 1 upset is about a steady as clockwork, and most seasons it happens on both sides.

I know that 8 VS 1 upsets happen way more often in the NHL than they do in the NBA (I think they have had only 2 ever), but every single season?

How did this, and the subsequent 3-0 comebacks that happen every year make it past the testers, or do they think this adds realism to the game?

[m1a2lt]

Re: Statistical impossibility

The other thing I've noticed is teams seem to do better on the road in the playoffs than at home; quite significantly better. No sure on the statistics with this one but it seems to defy logic.