How is goalie progression determined?

[Madwolf]

My biggest complaint last year was that you had to play absolutely perfect in front of your goalie to prevent the computer from scoring on around 4 shots.

This year it has definitely gotten better. The computer will score on about 1 in 10 shots provided it's not a break away. But sometimes my goalie is feeling extra charitable and will let in stuff like it's last year.

So on the season I have Jacob Markstrom with around a .874 save percentage. That isn't great, but it's better than the .600 save percentage he had when I used him last year.

My biggest problem is that he lets in a goal, but doesn't get the benefit of "stopping" bad angle shots by the computer because if it's not going in it seems to swing wide all the time.

So does save percentage have much to do with his progression? Am I going to regret not giving up 4 scoring chances a game?