NPD Sales figures, "Average Joe", and promo ideas.

[HMcCoy]

I've heard alot of folks saying that the casual fan doesn't support the 2K series enough for an alternative game to be successful. These forums have been filled with doom and gloom for a little too long. Its time to pick y'head up and stop moping...VC will survive this, no matter how gleefully some folks here will tell you otherwise.



First, here are some hot-off-the-press NPD sales figures (thru December 04):

Madden 05:
PS2 - 2,850,065
XBOX - 1,076,975

ESPN 2K5:
PS2 - 1,534,196
XBOX - 1,098,197

Clearly, the desparity is nowhere near as gargantuan as some posters would have you believe...It actually outsold Madden on the Box and I'd speculate that had VC been able to get the full feature list into the PS2 version (upgraded visuals, full Half-Time Show), those numbers would be closer as well.

In a crowded console market where reaching the 750 million platau is a smashing success, anyone who believes that Sega/TT and VC will simply abandon a game that sold over 2,600,000 copies (to date) is on crack. Especially when you consider the fact that the engine and graphics have already been coded, and the NFL licensing overhead is now gone.

Think about this...

According to NPD, only 92 games on this current generation have sold more than 1,000,000 copies. Considering that the PS2, GC, and XBox combined libraries have to be over the 2,000+ mark, those 92 games are in rare company...those are all extremely successful projects. By moving 2,632,393 units (even at 20 bucks) NFL2K5 has already eclipsed the vast majority of console games' sales/profits...overhead included. Take heart boys...

SEGA/TT/VC WILL NOT JUST THROW THAT BIG A FANBASE IN THE TOILET!


Most game companies would happily accept a QUARTER of that market penetration in agiven genre. Too many people focus on how far Sega is from EA in sales, and not enough on how far Sega is ahead of the overall industry itself (with this game, that is)

These figures also go against the argument that the folks at EA weren't moved to strike out of fear.

Lets be realistic here..Madden football has NEVER been challenged like this. There have been great alternatives to EA football, but like 2K4, they all had meager sales. I don't have the numbers, but I'm under the impression that 2K4 sold less than 500,000 units on both systems combined. Thats 500% growth from last year, my peoples...Considering that Madden 04 sold 4,227,193 copies (PS2 and XBOX), Sega/TT went from less than 10% of the football market on those machines to a WHOPPING 40%..that's cause for action, folks.

EA realized that they could not allow VC's critically superior game to continue to grow in popularity...especially at that incredible rate. All but the most loyal Maddenites have to admit that the EA's franchise has stagnated... Remember how arrogant teh EA reps sounded when the price drop was announced? It was quoted that VC had "thrown in the towel", or that the "quality must be poor". Heh, heh...2 months later EA was FORCED to drop their own prices, LOL. They don't want that type of heat on their backs...without SUBSTANTIALLY upgrading their game, they would have lost this war eventually.



Also, in reguards to "Joe Average" there are some things that need to be brought up.

First of all..Joey Average who LOVED 2K5 WILL buy it IF its 20 bucks again, and the teams are somewhat recognizable. Uhhh..thats why he's labeled casual!!! If the game is good, if he's already familiar with the controls and mechanics, and if it's pricepoint is favorable, he will still buy it...if only to fill a couple weeks between Final Fantasy XXXVI and GTAIX:Maple Heights, OHIO.

Don't ever underestimate the depth of apothy the casual masses bring to the table (look at the Madden fanbase for proof of that)

IMO, If Sega can somehow run a cross-promo with Action Replay...(EA's next buyout..watch) I feel they can sway juuuuuuust enough of the growing "hardcore" 2K fanbase to stick around. The key is spiffs. Sega would have to use some of the now-free licensing cash to create a kickback deal for Gamestop and EB employees. Something like a 3.00 spiff when you sell a Sega Football/AR bundle. This would inspire the store employees to not only push the game, but educate them on how to use an AR. Thats a win/win for everyone besides EA.

[Court_vision]

Excellent post.

I think the thing though that really needs to be clarified is the wording / strength of EA's 'exclusive'.

Ie, if it basically makes it illegal for anyone else to produce a product that looks like / even smells like an NFL game.

I know people refer to the NCAA games and roster updates etc...but that's avery, very different situation. No one holds exclusive rights there and the NCAA body itself basically allows games to be made and "ignores" that real player images are used.

I am certain EA won't allow that.

So, we need to know how strong the contract is.

The simple facts of the matter are that me and you can't open a shoe company tommorow called NIKKE and sell AIR 23 shoes.

Nike has all that stuff copyrighted and...key point...nothing similar is legal.

VC releasing a game that is odviously an NFL game...when EA has exclusives...I don't know bro, that's likely to see their asses in court imo.

[rudyjuly2]

Quote: Originally Posted by monkey

VC releasing a game that is odviously an NFL game...when EA has exclusives...I don't know bro, that's likely to see their asses in court imo.

You are incorrect. There have been MANY posts already discussing other games that have done it including EA. EA never had the player licence for its first hockey game and still used numbers and player likeness. Madden N64 didn't have the licence either. There are certain things Sega can't do but they can put a team in Miami and have #7 under QB. They can include a host of names in the audio database and let us edit the Miami Fish to Miami Dolphins and #7 to Feeley because that's our choice.

EA is the monopoly and should worry about its own lawsuits. Sega won't have to worry about this.

Excellent post backed by facts. Nice job McCoy!

[grunt]

Great post. Those numbers must look really bad for EA management. It almost look like a dead heat compare to last year number. Then take into the fact that Madden had to price cut during the December period must really put a coal in their stocking.

Now looking at these sales numbers I really dont understand how spending over 100 million bucks on the NFL/ESPN make financial sense. They are spending 100 million for 3.5 million solds hoping to capture the other 2.5 million of 2k series. I cant even see how they can break even but I dont know anything about business.

Peace

[solja]

vc should make an ncaa football game!

[Dame]

your basis is wrong when espn sold their 2.5 million copies they had nfl and the average gamer could play with his favorite team and favorite player but now since that gone and if you buy madden you still can do the same without the hassle of putting the names and teams in by yourself and the average gamer probably dont download rosters so i can see the average gamer going with the more recognizable madden.

This being said i still think they could salvage one more year but pass that i cant really see them doing it with a custom game

[grunt]

Quote: Originally Posted by sweettouch

your basis is wrong when espn sold their 2.5 million copies they had nfl and the average gamer could play with his favorite team and favorite player but now since that gone and if you buy madden you still can do the same without the hassle of putting the names and teams in by yourself and the average gamer probably dont download rosters so i can see the average gamer going with the more recognizable madden. This being said i still think they could salvage one more year but pass that i cant really see them doing it with a custom game

Even if T2 could sell million copies they win and they made EA spend over billion dollars. We will have multiply football games.

[NovaStar]

Great post MCcoy. When the facts become clear, it sheds light on the fact that ea was infact worried about VC and the strides it was clearly making.