Keeper Advice

[MotorCityCadMan]

I am in a keeper league and we keep 4 players every year. It's six points per TD and half point PPR. Here are my options.

Calvin Johnson (k)
Matt Forte (k)
LeSean McCoy (k)
Kelvin Benjamin
Carlos Hyde
Sammy Watkins

As you can see, I have three players pretty much locked in as keepers. Who would you keep between the bottom three guys listed? I listed them in the order that I think I would keep them, so I am leaning towards KB. What do you guys think?

[Candyman5]

Re: Keeper Advice

Yeah KB out if those. The bills are going to be running a lot and bot sure if I make Hyde a keeper.

I have a problem as well, I'm in a 2 keeper league and I'm not sure who to take.



I think I'm going with Adrian and Odell but at the same time Winston will be slinging the ball around so Jackson could be viable. Not high on Marshall since the Jets have no QB.

This is under the assumption that I'm still able to keep Adrian, not sure how many years it's been. Also everyone in the league is required to keep 2 players and they are just the first 2 rounds. I'm pretty sure I got second pick as well.

[MotorCityCadMan]

Re: Keeper Advise

I would go Peterson and Beckham Jr. for sure. I would be worried keeping Jackson and relying on a rookie QB to feed him the ball.

[wwharton]

Re: Keeper Advise

MCCM, I'd remove Hyde from the choices as well but would wait until as long as possible before deciding between the WRs. Obviously Benjamin's recent injury will play a role but even with both healthy, it's a bit of a toss up.

Candyman, AP and OBJ no question.

I'm going to sticky this and make it the official keeper advise thread. Post your questions and suggestions in here.

[woodjer]

Re: Keeper Advise

I'm in a 1-keeper league. 12 teams. Based on Yahoo's rankings, we lost a 1st round for 1-12, 2nd for 13-24, etc. 0.5 PPR, .04 pt/return yard, 5 pts for passing TD. Everything else is pretty much standard for scoring. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, and 1 W/R/T flex.

Here is who I could keep, what I'd give up, and where Yahoo ranks them for my league's scoring right now. I'm pick #10 in the first and 3 in the second and so on:

Gronk (1st - 8)
Russell Wilson (3rd - 30)
Latavius Murray (3rd - 32)
Jordan Matthews (4th - 38)
Roddy White (7th - 75)
Isaiah Crowell (9th - 99)

I initially thought Gronk was a no-brainer at 10 but after toying with who others might keep, I think Wilson/Murray could provide some good value since I'd end up with two of the top 5-10 live picks although I'd probably lose Gronk, of course. I really like Murray but I just can't get a handle on where he'll go. I've seen him in the 3rd or as late as the 5th-6th.

The bottom three are sleepers for me...White had a lot of injury issues the last year or two and may be on the way down but would be a huge steal if he stays healthy and Jones sees any kind of slip. I only include them because they're "plus" value when I compare their ranking with what I'd give up.

If I go on what I think could be available, I'd say that I'm really comparing these two potential starts:
A)
Gronk (1st, keeper)
Andrew Luck (2nd)
DeAndre Hopkins? (3rd)

B)
Demaryius Thomas (1st)
Julio Jones (2nd)
Russell Wilson (3rd)

To me, option B actually looks a little stronger. Lending to that, I can see 4 guys possibly taken ahead of Gronk which could mean that I can draft him AND keep Wilson or a later guy. What do you guys think?

[MotorCityCadMan]

Re: Keeper Advise

I'm in a 1-keeper league. 12 teams. Based on Yahoo's rankings, we lost a 1st round for 1-12, 2nd for 13-24, etc. 0.5 PPR, .04 pt/return yard, 5 pts for passing TD. Everything else is pretty much standard for scoring. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, and 1 W/R/T flex.

Here is who I could keep, what I'd give up, and where Yahoo ranks them for my league's scoring right now. I'm pick #10 in the first and 3 in the second and so on:

Gronk (1st - 8)
Russell Wilson (3rd - 30)
Latavius Murray (3rd - 32)
Jordan Matthews (4th - 38)
Roddy White (7th - 75)
Isaiah Crowell (9th - 99)

I initially thought Gronk was a no-brainer at 10 but after toying with who others might keep, I think Wilson/Murray could provide some good value since I'd end up with two of the top 5-10 live picks although I'd probably lose Gronk, of course. I really like Murray but I just can't get a handle on where he'll go. I've seen him in the 3rd or as late as the 5th-6th.

The bottom three are sleepers for me...White had a lot of injury issues the last year or two and may be on the way down but would be a huge steal if he stays healthy and Jones sees any kind of slip. I only include them because they're "plus" value when I compare their ranking with what I'd give up.

If I go on what I think could be available, I'd say that I'm really comparing these two potential starts:
A)
Gronk (1st, keeper)
Andrew Luck (2nd)
DeAndre Hopkins? (3rd)

B)
Demaryius Thomas (1st)
Julio Jones (2nd)
Russell Wilson (3rd)

To me, option B actually looks a little stronger. Lending to that, I can see 4 guys possibly taken ahead of Gronk which could mean that I can draft him AND keep Wilson or a later guy. What do you guys think?

With Gronks injury history and the questions surrounding the Brady suspension, I think I like your option B better. Especially because you get to keep your 1st pick and possibly get Gronk back or at the very least grab another stud in the 1st round.

[Yeah...THAT Guy]

Re: Keeper Advise

I'm in a 1-keeper league. 12 teams. Based on Yahoo's rankings, we lost a 1st round for 1-12, 2nd for 13-24, etc. 0.5 PPR, .04 pt/return yard, 5 pts for passing TD. Everything else is pretty much standard for scoring. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, and 1 W/R/T flex.

Here is who I could keep, what I'd give up, and where Yahoo ranks them for my league's scoring right now. I'm pick #10 in the first and 3 in the second and so on:

Gronk (1st - 8)
Russell Wilson (3rd - 30)
Latavius Murray (3rd - 32)
Jordan Matthews (4th - 38)
Roddy White (7th - 75)
Isaiah Crowell (9th - 99)

I initially thought Gronk was a no-brainer at 10 but after toying with who others might keep, I think Wilson/Murray could provide some good value since I'd end up with two of the top 5-10 live picks although I'd probably lose Gronk, of course. I really like Murray but I just can't get a handle on where he'll go. I've seen him in the 3rd or as late as the 5th-6th.

The bottom three are sleepers for me...White had a lot of injury issues the last year or two and may be on the way down but would be a huge steal if he stays healthy and Jones sees any kind of slip. I only include them because they're "plus" value when I compare their ranking with what I'd give up.

If I go on what I think could be available, I'd say that I'm really comparing these two potential starts:
A)
Gronk (1st, keeper)
Andrew Luck (2nd)
DeAndre Hopkins? (3rd)

B)
Demaryius Thomas (1st)
Julio Jones (2nd)
Russell Wilson (3rd)

To me, option B actually looks a little stronger. Lending to that, I can see 4 guys possibly taken ahead of Gronk which could mean that I can draft him AND keep Wilson or a later guy. What do you guys think?

Personally, I'd keep Gronk, but I'm honestly not a fan of Wilson in the 3rd. A healthy Gronk is so far and above the next closest tight end this year that he should be the pick IMO. The only two QBs worth keeping are Rodgers and Luck to me.

And for what it's worth, @InjuryPredictor believes the chances of Gronk getting hurt this year are relatively low.

[woodjer]

Re: Keeper Advise

Personally, I'd keep Gronk, but I'm honestly not a fan of Wilson in the 3rd. A healthy Gronk is so far and above the next closest tight end this year that he should be the pick IMO. The only two QBs worth keeping are Rodgers and Luck to me.

And for what it's worth, @InjuryPredictor believes the chances of Gronk getting hurt this year are relatively low.

I agree with most everything you said. The more I think about Wilson in the 3rd, the more I think it's too much of a reach. Gronk is head-and-shoulders above any other TE, too.

That said, I'm falling back on my idea that Gronk could be available with my 1st pick even if I don't keep him. Even if he doesn't, I wouldn't be too upset with one of the top-tier WRs in his place.

If I'm looking at ADP, Crowell might actually be the best bet with a 9th. Seems crazy to keep someone that late but I've done it before and ended up winning the league. FWIW, footballguys.com has him going anywhere from mid-5th to late-7th.

[wwharton]

Re: Keeper Advise

I'm in a 1-keeper league. 12 teams. Based on Yahoo's rankings, we lost a 1st round for 1-12, 2nd for 13-24, etc. 0.5 PPR, .04 pt/return yard, 5 pts for passing TD. Everything else is pretty much standard for scoring. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, and 1 W/R/T flex.

Here is who I could keep, what I'd give up, and where Yahoo ranks them for my league's scoring right now. I'm pick #10 in the first and 3 in the second and so on:

Gronk (1st - 8)
Russell Wilson (3rd - 30)
Latavius Murray (3rd - 32)
Jordan Matthews (4th - 38)
Roddy White (7th - 75)
Isaiah Crowell (9th - 99)

I initially thought Gronk was a no-brainer at 10 but after toying with who others might keep, I think Wilson/Murray could provide some good value since I'd end up with two of the top 5-10 live picks although I'd probably lose Gronk, of course. I really like Murray but I just can't get a handle on where he'll go. I've seen him in the 3rd or as late as the 5th-6th.

The bottom three are sleepers for me...White had a lot of injury issues the last year or two and may be on the way down but would be a huge steal if he stays healthy and Jones sees any kind of slip. I only include them because they're "plus" value when I compare their ranking with what I'd give up.

If I go on what I think could be available, I'd say that I'm really comparing these two potential starts:
A)
Gronk (1st, keeper)
Andrew Luck (2nd)
DeAndre Hopkins? (3rd)

B)
Demaryius Thomas (1st)
Julio Jones (2nd)
Russell Wilson (3rd)

To me, option B actually looks a little stronger. Lending to that, I can see 4 guys possibly taken ahead of Gronk which could mean that I can draft him AND keep Wilson or a later guy. What do you guys think?

Man that's tough. I don't think you're getting great value with any of them. I think Murray makes the most sense personally. Third round isn't really a value pick in terms of ADP but he does have upside above that. I think his negatives are obvious...

I agree that only 2 QBs are worth keeping and especially above a 4th round grade. Wilson wouldn't even be on my radar here.

Gronk at 10 is higher than I'd draft him but right around his value. He's 1b to Murray for me with your options.

I wouldn't reach for any of the other guys, even at the low price. Matthews could be a decent keeper but not as a 4th rounder imo. Absolutely no upside with White, and Crowell has two other backs to compete with.

[woodjer]

Re: Keeper Advise

Man that's tough. I don't think you're getting great value with any of them. I think Murray makes the most sense personally. Third round isn't really a value pick in terms of ADP but he does have upside above that. I think his negatives are obvious...

I agree that only 2 QBs are worth keeping and especially above a 4th round grade. Wilson wouldn't even be on my radar here.

Gronk at 10 is higher than I'd draft him but right around his value. He's 1b to Murray for me with your options.

I wouldn't reach for any of the other guys, even at the low price. Matthews could be a decent keeper but not as a 4th rounder imo. Absolutely no upside with White, and Crowell has two other backs to compete with.

Thanks, you've always got some great thoughts, wwharton. So do you think I should just pass on a keeper altogether then? I figure keeping Crowell in the 9th pretty much means I'm keeping him as backup anyway so not a huge loss if I end up having to dump him. I think I'm going to let Gronk go though. If he's there and is the best pick for me, great; if not, someone that I probably have ranked ahead of him will be.

I did throw out the idea of keeping Gronk and trading up but no takers yet. Had one guy offer AP but then pulled it back pretty quick. I'm going to have to play with the idea of swapping 2nd round picks to sweeten the pot. I'd essentially be trading down from 15 to 19 then. Hmmm...

[wwharton]

Re: Keeper Advise

Thanks, you've always got some great thoughts, wwharton. So do you think I should just pass on a keeper altogether then? I figure keeping Crowell in the 9th pretty much means I'm keeping him as backup anyway so not a huge loss if I end up having to dump him. I think I'm going to let Gronk go though. If he's there and is the best pick for me, great; if not, someone that I probably have ranked ahead of him will be.

I did throw out the idea of keeping Gronk and trading up but no takers yet. Had one guy offer AP but then pulled it back pretty quick. I'm going to have to play with the idea of swapping 2nd round picks to sweeten the pot. I'd essentially be trading down from 15 to 19 then. Hmmm...

Man it would've been nice if you could've landed AP.

Not going with a keeper isn't a bad idea. I don't like the idea of keeping Crowell because you can easily get him back if you want... maybe even later in the draft. I wouldn't like the idea of being tied to him... he may even go undrafted.

I think you can get every single player you have back at the round you'd keep them so unless you're tied to a guy (Gronk bc he's hands down the best TE, Murray bc he's got a ton of potential) I might just go in with all my picks and see what the options are when your turn comes up. Really Gronk and Murray are the only two I could see you missing out on, and maybe by a pick or two.

[MotorCityCadMan]

Re: Keeper Advice

I am in a keeper league and we keep 4 players every year. It's six points per TD and half point PPR. Here are my options.

Calvin Johnson (k)
Matt Forte (k)
LeSean McCoy (k)
Kelvin Benjamin
Carlos Hyde
Sammy Watkins

As you can see, I have three players pretty much locked in as keepers. Who would you keep between the bottom three guys listed? I listed them in the order that I think I would keep them, so I am leaning towards KB. What do you guys think?

Well my keeper issues just got worse after the KB injury. Here are my keeper options one more time.

Calvin Johnson (k)
Matt Forte (k)
LeSean McCoy (k)
Kelvin Benjamin (injured)
Carlos Hyde
Sammy Watkins
Greg Olsen

I added Greg Olsen to the mix, but really I doubt I will keep him tho he may see more targets now with KB out. I also have a trade option available to me. The guy who won the league last year has 5 legitimate keepers. Here they are.

Julio Jones (k)
Odell Beckham Jr. (k)
C.J. Anderson (k)
DeMarco Murray
A.J. Green

He has offered to flip flop draft positions in the 5th round in exchange for either DeMarco Murray or A.J. Green. The 5th round is actually the 1st round after all the keepers are selected. I am picking 4th and he is picking 10th.

So, do I keep Watkins, Hyde or Olsen and keep my 4th overall pick or do I make the trade and move back 6 spots? If I make the trade, should I go for Green or Murray? One other thing I am considering is offering to flip flop picks in both the 5th and maybe the 7th round and try and get Beckham Jr.

Thoughts?

[wwharton]

Re: Keeper Advice

Well my keeper issues just got worse after the KB injury. Here are my keeper options one more time.

Calvin Johnson (k)
Matt Forte (k)
LeSean McCoy (k)
Kelvin Benjamin (injured)
Carlos Hyde
Sammy Watkins
Greg Olsen

I added Greg Olsen to the mix, but really I doubt I will keep him tho he may see more targets now with KB out. I also have a trade option available to me. The guy who won the league last year has 5 legitimate keepers. Here they are.

Julio Jones (k)
Odell Beckham Jr. (k)
C.J. Anderson (k)
DeMarco Murray
A.J. Green

He has offered to flip flop draft positions in the 5th round in exchange for either DeMarco Murray or A.J. Green. The 5th round is actually the 1st round after all the keepers are selected. I am picking 4th and he is picking 10th.

So, do I keep Watkins, Hyde or Olsen and keep my 4th overall pick or do I make the trade and move back 6 spots? If I make the trade, should I go for Green or Murray? One other thing I am considering is offering to flip flop picks in both the 5th and maybe the 7th round and try and get Beckham Jr.

Thoughts?

I don't think staying put is a bad idea. I'd probably keep Watkins. With guys having to release the likes of Green and Murray you should have a very good pick available with that #4 pick.

With that said, it's not a bad offer. If you decide to do it I'd go after Green. If the top returning talent is drying up around the 10th pick, you should still have your pick of the top rookies... there are at least 3 I think worth jumping on in a keeper league that early.

[Candyman5]

Re: Keeper Advice

Not sure where to post this but I got the second pick of our draft on Wed.

The guy who picks ahead of me has HB: Jamal Charles and WR: Randall Cobb.

My keepers are:

HB: Adrian Peterson
WR: ODB

I have no clue what I should possibly draft with my pick this year. Any help will be appreciated.

Everyone else has kept:

QB: Russel Wilson
QB: Andrew Luck
QB: Peyton Manning
QB: Aaron Rodgers
QB: Ben Roethlisberger


TE: Jimmy Graham
TE: Rob Gronkowski


WR: Calvin Johnson
WR: Randall Cobb
WR: Antonio Brown
WR: Dez Bryant
WR: AJ Green


HB: Eddie Lacy
HB: Jamal Charles
HB: Marshawn Lynch
HB: Le' Veon Bell
HB: Frank Gore
HB: Matt Forte


Thats (Including me) 7 HB gone already. 5 QB and 6 WR as well.

[wwharton]

Re: Keeper Advice

Not sure where to post this but I got the second pick of our draft on Wed.

The guy who picks ahead of me has HB: Jamal Charles and WR: Randall Cobb.

My keepers are:

HB: Adrian Peterson
WR: ODB

I have no clue what I should possibly draft with my pick this year. Any help will be appreciated.

Everyone else has kept:

QB: Russel Wilson
QB: Andrew Luck
QB: Peyton Manning
QB: Aaron Rodgers
QB: Ben Roethlisberger


TE: Jimmy Graham
TE: Rob Gronkowski


WR: Calvin Johnson
WR: Randall Cobb
WR: Antonio Brown
WR: Dez Bryant
WR: AJ Green


HB: Eddie Lacy
HB: Jamal Charles
HB: Marshawn Lynch
HB: Le' Veon Bell
HB: Frank Gore
HB: Matt Forte


Thats (Including me) 7 HB gone already. 5 QB and 6 WR as well.

WRs are the best keeper options so I'd go there. Off the top of my head I think my order would be

Julio Jones (needs to stay healthy but should be as good as anyone for years)
D Thomas (will be up there with the best this year but what about after Peyton leaves?)
Cooper (seems like the real deal but does he really have a higher ceiling than say Evans?)

If you want to go RB, Hill would probably be the best long term option while still having short term value in the range of McCoy and Murray (the others probably worth considering).