Billy Hamilton, "Absolute" Attributes, and Potential Game-Breaking Speed

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  • MasonTK
    Rookie
    • Nov 2008
    • 215

    #16
    Re: Billy Hamilton, "Absolute" Attributes, and Potential Game-Breaking Speed

    Originally posted by sydrogerdavid
    Now off topic, regarding the sac fly...
    Spoiler
    Just before that, he tug from 2nd on a ball slightly deeper with Jay charging and throwing hard all the way. That was a much better example of his speed, if you ask me. And him scoring from second with ease on a hard hit ball right to Jay later in the game. And the drag bunt played cleanly by Molina. And the steal on a great release and throw by Molina (you know, the best defensive catcher in baseball). He may not steal as many as Ricky, but I have NEVER seen someone run the bases like this kid.

    Comment

    • tbbucsfan001
      Pro
      • Aug 2009
      • 642

      #17
      Re: Billy Hamilton, "Absolute" Attributes, and Potential Game-Breaking Speed

      Originally posted by twinsfan34
      I'm not sure I buy the weakest arm of all the STL OF...after all he IS in RF.

      Scouting grade here has his arm as a "plus" (60 grade).

      I'd say 55 is probably just fine tho. But the Cardinals have him in RF and he isn't a much better hitter at this point than Piscotty or Tavares would be - Jay is playing primarily because of his defense. Tho Piscotty has a cannon.

      But your 2nd point is definitely on.
      That report also said that he "is good at taking a walk." Last year was his first above league average (8.3% compared to 7.9%).

      -15 arm runs in UZR (awful) and -11 arm runs in DRS (awful) in his career (4 years). Fans scouting has him at 46, 34, 38, and 17 out of 100 in the last 4 years.

      The only reason he is in RF is because Matt Holliday has never played an inning anywhere but LF and Bourjos is better than Jay.

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      • torpidbeaver
        Pro
        • Mar 2010
        • 636

        #18
        Re: Billy Hamilton, "Absolute" Attributes, and Potential Game-Breaking Speed

        Originally posted by sydrogerdavid
        It's interesting to bring this topic up. It's a similar situation that Madden had a few years ago with Devin Hester. They bumped his speed up to 100. I don't think the Show needs to do that though.


        Now off topic, regarding the sac fly...
        Spoiler
        Ah, okay. I guess that should factor in to it. On second look, the ball's a little further out than I first thought it was too.

        Nevertheless, I don't think 95% of the MLB would even try to make that play, much less make it successfully. Or... that's what I imagine to be the truth, anyway.

        Originally posted by Heroesandvillains
        Interesting read.

        When I spoke with Brian SCEA last year about attribute diversity (I was basically saying that for MLB 13, I personally wanted to see the higher ratings have more of an impact; same with the lower), Brian immediately showed me and Nomo a little taste of what 'the code' looked like and how some players actually had ratings above 99; which the game needed to represent visually as a 99.

        Now, I personally cannot speak to the details on this or how it works. And I can't pretend to remember whether what he showed me was an individual rating or an overall rating. He basically used it as a demonstration on how he and the team are aware certain players transcend caps and how the Devs go about getting that portion of the player into the game.

        But beyond that, someone at their studios would need to expand upon that.

        I'm basically just saying that I'm almost positive circumstances like these are discussed and probably addressed behind the scenes.
        This is really, really interesting to me - that some real players have attributes that don't fit well inside the box they've created for a game, so the Devs do some tinkering behind the scenes and make them (game-wise) super-human. I mean, if they're actually above the "cap" that represents the "best" in the game, that's pretty cool.

        That also makes me wonder about bringing in Legends, and how they'd handle young Mantle's or Bo Jackson's power, Ted Williams' contact, Tim Raines' or Vince Coleman's speed, or Rollie Fingers' mustache attributes. Like... where would they fit on that scale?

        I really like the idea that only a few players ever even approach the perfect "Absolute 99 Attribute," and that most of the rest of the field that we'd normally consider "Great" is somewhere in the "Great but not Amazing" category. It's also why I don't come on to complain when some of my favorite players are hanging around the mid-80s overall - I like to reserve those 90s-and-above for the truly life-changing players.

        After all, how do you make someone with Hamilton's "A++" speed feel unique if the next-highest guy is an "A+-+"?

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        • Jr.
          Playgirl Coverboy
          • Feb 2003
          • 19171

          #19
          Re: Billy Hamilton, "Absolute" Attributes, and Potential Game-Breaking Speed

          I'm gonna start this by saying I'm completely biased because he is a friend of mine.. but Tony Campana got the shaft in the speed/steal ratings department.

          6.3 60 runner, 62/69 SBs in his career... he should be in that 90/90 club.

          Okay, off my soapbox


          Good topic and discussion going on.
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          • steveeee
            Banned
            • Dec 2003
            • 843

            #20
            Re: Billy Hamilton, "Absolute" Attributes, and Potential Game-Breaking Speed

            Originally posted by twinsfan34
            I'm not sure I buy the weakest arm of all the STL OF...after all he IS in RF.

            Scouting grade here has his arm as a "plus" (60 grade).

            I'd say 55 is probably just fine tho. But the Cardinals have him in RF and he isn't a much better hitter at this point than Piscotty or Tavares would be - Jay is playing primarily because of his defense. Tho Piscotty has a cannon.

            But your 2nd point is definitely on.
            his point about Jay having the weakest arm in the OF for the Cards is most definitely true and has gotten worst the last couple of years. most Cards fans constantly rip his arm for the last couple of years and already want him dropped from the team this season already because of it. don't believe me just go to the stltoday cards forums and you will see over half the topics on the page discussing how bad Jay's arm is and he shouldn't even be on the team. With that said... Hamilton has freakish speed and is a very smart base runner as well. He just isn't a guy blessed with great speed that doesn't know how to use it.
            Last edited by steveeee; 04-10-2014, 04:45 PM.

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            • Cavicchi
              MVP
              • Mar 2004
              • 2841

              #21
              Re: Billy Hamilton, "Absolute" Attributes, and Potential Game-Breaking Speed

              What is Billy Hamilton's potential?

              Comment

              • underdog13
                MVP
                • Apr 2012
                • 3222

                #22
                Re: Billy Hamilton, "Absolute" Attributes, and Potential Game-Breaking Speed

                Originally posted by Jr.
                I'm gonna start this by saying I'm completely biased because he is a friend of mine.. but Tony Campana got the shaft in the speed/steal ratings department.

                6.3 60 runner, 62/69 SBs in his career... he should be in that 90/90 club.

                Okay, off my soapbox


                Good topic and discussion going on.
                As a cubs fan I absolutely love Mr.Campana boy can he run.
                PSN: Dalton1985
                Steam: Failure To Communicate

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                • Double Deuce
                  Rookie
                  • Oct 2007
                  • 225

                  #23
                  Re: Billy Hamilton, "Absolute" Attributes, and Potential Game-Breaking Speed

                  This is a really interesting topic. The problem is you can't use SB totals to rate these guys' speed very accurately, since a requirement for a stolen base is to REACH base in the first place, so a guy could be fast as all get out, but if he's a terrible hitter/cannot take a walk to save his life, he'll have low SB totals. SB% may help with that, but one season of it isn't a very big sample size. Also, guys' speed can vary drastically at any point based on current nagging injuries, etc.

                  Plus, some guys can have high SB totals or a high SB percentage not because they are particularly fast, but are just better at reading pitchers. Sadly, it's difficult to accurately reflect all that kind of stuff with only a few player ratings.

                  I don't know if teams keep track of their players' 40m sprint times or anything, like if they time them all at the beginning of spring training or something, but that'd seem like the best data for just straight Speed rating. Then Steal rating would probably have to be a combo of their Speed rating combined with their SB% over the last 3 years or so.

                  I'd say you could just time the player's speed in game situations (home to first etc) but then you get problems with whether they're in a full hustle or not going full speed for whatever reason.

                  This is fun to think about though.

                  Comment

                  • Scott
                    Your Go-to TV Expert
                    • Jul 2002
                    • 20032

                    #24
                    Re: Billy Hamilton, "Absolute" Attributes, and Potential Game-Breaking Speed

                    Not sure how Craig Gentry doesn't have 90s speed...
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                    • MasonTK
                      Rookie
                      • Nov 2008
                      • 215

                      #25
                      Re: Billy Hamilton, "Absolute" Attributes, and Potential Game-Breaking Speed

                      Originally posted by Double Deuce
                      ... a requirement for a stolen base is to REACH base in the first place, so a guy could be fast as all get out, but if he's a terrible hitter/cannot take a walk to save his life, he'll have low SB totals. \
                      You just described why most people in Cincinnati don't agree with Hamilton being in the lineup. While I think he's incredible to watch, he did make a few blunders on the bases the other day. However, here are his numbers the past few years...

                      SB/(H+BB+HBP) = Steals per time reached (not including ROE or being on via FC).

                      2011- Single A : 50%
                      2012- A+, AA : 63%
                      2013- AAA, MLB : 50%

                      **For comparison's sake, Ricky Henderson stole 26% of the time reached (although Ricky had a lot more pop, so he was burning past 1st on a hit a lot more frequently than Billy has/will).**

                      So, that means with 500 PAs (120 games, give or take)--with his walk rate from those years of 10%; and assume a horrendous .225 batting average (for fun): he would steal 76 bags. 76.

                      I know, that was the minors, right? Well in his 50 career MLB PAs he has 15 SBs in 16 times reached. At that pace, I don't have to tell you what that would do to his numbers.

                      So let's get crazy and assume he hits as high as .250, and steals with his career high rate of 63% of times reached. In 500 PAs, with his 10% BB rate, that's 102 stolen bases. Keep in mind that if he ever starts 155 games, he'll have over 600 PAs.

                      --------------------

                      Now for devil's advocate : his SB% since being a professional is 83%, so he does get caught a good bit for a supposed "phenom."
                      Last edited by MasonTK; 04-11-2014, 12:15 PM.

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                      • duc748s
                        Rookie
                        • Nov 2008
                        • 225

                        #26
                        Re: Billy Hamilton, "Absolute" Attributes, and Potential Game-Breaking Speed

                        You forgot to add (-PAaMC*)




                        *Plate Appearances against Mets Catchers

                        LOL JKing, love the guy as he definitely brings excitement to the game, even when he is on the opposing team. Love watching gifted athletes
                        ____________________________________________
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                        • torpidbeaver
                          Pro
                          • Mar 2010
                          • 636

                          #27
                          Re: Billy Hamilton, "Absolute" Attributes, and Potential Game-Breaking Speed

                          Originally posted by duc748s
                          You forgot to add (-PAaMC*)




                          *Plate Appearances against Mets Catchers

                          LOL JKing, love the guy as he definitely brings excitement to the game, even when he is on the opposing team. Love watching gifted athletes
                          I like-hate this.

                          Comment

                          • cra1971
                            Rookie
                            • Mar 2014
                            • 193

                            #28
                            Re: Billy Hamilton, "Absolute" Attributes, and Potential Game-Breaking Speed

                            Interesting addition to the Speed Conversation.




                            Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

                            Comment

                            • KBLover
                              Hall Of Fame
                              • Aug 2009
                              • 12172

                              #29
                              Re: Billy Hamilton, "Absolute" Attributes, and Potential Game-Breaking Speed

                              Looking at his stats in baseball reference, I think he should have his 99 Speed or pretty close to it, but NOT 99 stealing just yet.

                              He's currently at 78% success, so he still needs to learn something with stealing bases. He is a rookie, though, so he has plenty of time to learn and get coached up on how to further use his speed.

                              He goes a lot (high aggression) and gets caught a decent amount (success just above average).

                              One interesting thing, though, is triples. Dee Gordon has 7 already. 36% of his extra base hits are triples (7 out of 19). Gordon isn't a big power guy, not a speed+power combo player (like Trout), yet he has that many triples?

                              Does this mean Hamilton has even less pop in the bat? If speed = overall baserunning, maybe Hamilton shouldn't have 99 speed just yet? However, if it means baserunning, then how does that impact his fielding? Speed is an individual absolute physical skill. He gets to point A to point B in X time. If he doesn't run bases as well as he should, that should be something else. If he doesn't steal super good, that should be something else. Heck, if his reaction isn't good, that's something else.

                              Hamilton has 7.7 range runs above average, 3rd among CF. He tracks down 97% of what he should get to, one of the highest rates at the position. Looking at outfielders, he's 5th in RngR, but still in the top 3 in RZR%. He doesn't get to balls out of zone as well as some others - probably his read/reaction off the bat - perhaps a more technique/experience thing? (and a separate skill from speed).

                              So if Hamilton is unbelievably fast, give him his 99 speed. Just all the "technique" ratings would be lower and showing a player that needs experience/development to refine his gift. About average in stealing, reaction, touch above in arm, below average in power.

                              Assuming 60 represents MLB average ability (which is something sports games NEVER seem to say - what is the rating that represents average ability)

                              99 Speed
                              60 Reaction
                              60 Stealing
                              90 Aggression
                              45 Power (his XHB/BIP, i.e. (2B+3B+HR)/(AB-K) isn't all that bad vs league average)
                              75 Vision (contact% is pretty high, 85% vs 79% current 2014 average)
                              60 Contact (.324 BABIP vs .298 current average, though some of that is "probably" him beating out stuff that would be outs)
                              65 Discipline (O-Swing% about average, slightly below)

                              That's probably how I'd make him - though it depends on what average really is. If it's 50 - then probably lower most beyond speed down 10 points.
                              "Some people call it butterflies, but to him, it probably feels like pterodactyls in his stomach." --Plesac in MLB18

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