Remember 2015 - When Golf Gaming looked so bright?

[ncp10]

Quote: Originally Posted by scagwi

I would just question.... I honestly think almost all this just boils down to the fact that golf as a sport is not as popular as it was, and it’s certainly not mainstream anymore like it was during Tigers run, and it’s just a very difficult business to make work.

Trying to make the old business model work is a lost cause I agree. You were happy when new golf sim versions came out regularly which is why the title of this thread that you created is what it is. But that's not going to happen for the reasons you state, though I think you've way oversimplified what's happening and appear to have concluded it's essentially over if that model can't continue. Apple Computer was essentially on the brink of going extinct itself until Steve Jobs envisioned iPhone and the rest is history.

Stretching out release intervals is a means of addressing and building the base of gamer golfers who appreciate realism in a golf sim, and making it economically more feasible. HBS has other titles to keep themselves relevant. Just two weeks ago I was visiting friends in California and one fellow I had played golf with had no idea a 'serious' golf sim even existed. He's stoked to pick up an Xbox and TGC 2019 after I described how the game plays. There are an estimated 60,000,000 players world wide to potentially market to and most don't even know about golf sims. Perhaps changing how they market might change the picture enough as well--this is the age of big data and I'm sure some db somewhere has my name on it as an avid RL golfer and gamer too.

Peer into what MS did with Flight Simulator. Their last release of FSX was in 2006 and they announced they were done with it as well as their feeble attempt at a sequel to FSX, MS Flight. They sold the core ESP engine to Lockheed Martin which proceeded to keep the doors open for DLC by 3rd party content developers supporting their version of FS called Prepar3D...FOR 13 straight years. Massive 3rd party content development. Suddenly, w/o warning at E3 this year, MS announced they're back in the game big time with what appears to be everything the flight simmer could hope for. The analogy is flawed but I am only using this example to describe how getting out of frequent serial releases can open up the door for other ways of developing product. I'm hoping other non-arcade titles continue to disappear and leave TGC poised to rein supreme as the only serious players golf sim.

Can you imagine the cost of creating Rory? It's hard to fathom really. TGC does not need to do this--they need to judiciously add DLC, ultra well done in keeping w/ their potential mission of being the go-to sim for serious gamer/players. DLC is just a way to keep people requiring newness interested without coming out with full new releases--I can see purchasing first class animations similar to what Rory offered. This adds some depth and can shape what the release in 5y might look like. Plus, again, make it clear where they are going--so you know when you pay $19.95 for 4 PGA tour players you will be using them in TGC 2024. I don't see any potential for monthly subscriptions it's just not required in any golf sim. With Flight Sim, that is not the case and I'm pretty sure MS will be doing their next version w/ realtime streaming graphics thru wide bandwidth. This is clearly what is needed in that domain, but as I say not so in the golf domain. So there is no real place for subscription that I can see for TGC or any other golf title.

[scagwi]

Quote: Originally Posted by ncp10

Apple Computer was essentially on the brink of going extinct itself until Steve Jobs envisioned iPhone and the rest is history.

No offense, but there is so much wrong comparing this golf gaming situation with the story of Apple, I wouldn't even know where to start.

They are totally unrelated and totally different situations bearing zero similarity to each other.

[scagwi]

Quote: Originally Posted by ncp10

Stretching out release intervals is a means of addressing and building the base of gamer golfers who appreciate realism in a golf sim, and making it economically more feasible. HBS has other titles to keep themselves relevant.

I highlighted this exactly in my post before actually.

What would your plan for them as it relates to a golf game?

Let's use TGC 2019 as an example...
They made it and released and abandoned it.

Are you wanting them to wait 3,4,5 years and then charge again for a new version?
Keep updating it over time slowly?

If it's the latter, I don't understand how you think it will financially pencil to have no ongoing revenue (a subscription) for the golf game but have it get updates over time. Someone (a team) has to work on the game.

Using revenue from other projects to subsidize work on the golf game would make no business sense.

If the golf game can't support itself, you drop it and simply work on the "other titles" you mentioned.

[scagwi]

Quote: Originally Posted by ncp10

Can you imagine the cost of creating Rory? It's hard to fathom really. TGC does not need to do this--they need to judiciously add DLC, ultra well done in keeping w/ their potential mission of being the go-to sim for serious gamer/players. DLC is just a way to keep people requiring newness interested without coming out with full new releases--I can see purchasing first class animations similar to what Rory offered. This adds some depth and can shape what the release in 5y might look like. Plus, again, make it clear where they are going--so you know when you pay $19.95 for 4 PGA tour players you will be using them in TGC 2024.

I also mentioned DLC before.
It's highly unlikely it alone would pay the bills here.

Don't forget that creating DLC requires resources on its own, so even the limited DLC revenue can't fully be allocated to ongoing game development necessarily.

Also - do you have any idea how HYPER niche and low revenue things like "First class animations" are? That's so in the weeds and non mainstream, that's difficult to imagine it would ever financially make sense, let alone be a major profit center.

I think HB even talked about their costs on the animations they have now, no?

Wasn't it multiple 6 figures if memory serves?

Guys - all of this boils down to one thing. The "golf super simulation hyper accurate" niche is freaking TINY. It's not even close to mainstream. The sport itself isn't even mainstream these days, let alone a video game version accurately depicting the "frustration" (fun?) of golf - lol

You and I love it - but we are weird - lmao

[scagwi]

Oh also - the FS comparison..

I'd wager that genre has orders of magnitude more interest than "realistic golf".

MS got back into that because the technology is there to make a huge difference with scenery and VR potential and hardware making a console version possible, etc.

They've said all this in audio/text interviews.

i.e. They got back in because there's a huge new market opportunity. This doesn't apply to a "super serious golf sim". Nobody cares about hyper accurate golf simulations in even remotely the same way.

If there were mainstream opportunities, EA wouldn't have bailed. They are the "MS" in this space and they quit (for now anyhow)

[scagwi]

As an aside, please realize that I WISH golf was more popular and could support great businesses around multiple games. I'm simply living in reality.

EA quit for a reason.
PP sold to Trackman for a reason.
There's no TGC 2020 to immediately follow up TGC 2019 for a reason.
There have been no further updates to TGC 2019 this calendar year for a reason.

The "reason" isn't that there's a hidden "great business" in this niche of gaming.

[TheBrew101]

There doesn't have to be great business, there just needs enough business to turn a reasonable profit for them to make the game.

I believe there is a market. If there wasn't, we wouldn't have had TGC, then TGC2, then TGC 2019. We wouldn't have had the countless EA golf games (plenty pre Tiger). There was Links (multiple versions).

I feel you just need the right business model, marketing and timing. Golf doesnt really lend itself to a yearly release.

It probably doesn't help that golf is in a bit of transition. Phil Mickelson is pretty much done being relevant on tour. Tiger has flashes but is clearly not a top player anymore. Those were your big draws. Rory just never quite got to that level of popularity in my opinion. Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, etc.....just don't seem to have that marketing appeal. Hopefully the next "Tiger" arrives soon (just like Lebron did for NBA).

But I would be shocked if we don't see another golf release within the next couple years.

[scagwi]

Quote: Originally Posted by TheBrew101

There doesn't have to be great business, there just needs enough business to turn a reasonable profit for them to make the game. I believe there is a market. If there wasn't, we wouldn't have had TGC, then TGC2, then TGC 2019. We wouldn't have had the countless EA golf games (plenty pre Tiger). There was Links (multiple versions). I feel you just need the right business model, marketing and timing. Golf doesnt really lend itself to a yearly release. But I would be shocked if we don't see another golf release within the next couple years.

Links was essentially "decades ago" now, TGC appears to be dead, PG is dead, EA exited completely..

There was a business, but is there one now?

Things change.. Golf isn't as popular as it was during Tiger's dominance, which happened to coincide with the boom times in golf games. It wasn't an accident IMO.

Sports games in general seem to be suffering - especially simulation/realism oriented ones


I hope you're right about more games in the future, but what will change to suddenly make it appealing to invest in this genre?

Everybody's Golf type of games I can see continuing to succeed, but very simulation oriented titles?
I'm just not as optimistic about it given the data in front of us.

I certainly don't have the answer or any special insights, but it's hard to deny just how "dead" the golf game scene appears to be right now.