Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

[PFellah]

2019-2020 Closeout: Playoffs And Awards



STANLEY CUP
In bit of a shocking twist, the #8 seed Colorado Avalanche complete their Cinderella story, winning the Stanley Cup in 7 games against... those same Buffalo Sabres that just eliminated us. Winnipeg's path to the Cup went through #1 ranked Nashville (4-3), Winnipeg (4-3), and Edmonton (4-2) before facing the Sabres in the finals. After defeating the Firebirds, the Sabres beat New Jersey in the Eastern Conference Finals, 4-2.

The mildly weird thing: Semyon Varmalov had been their primary goaltender through the regular season, but Joonas Korpisalo got all the starts in the playoffs and (mild spoiler) won the Conn Smythe. Didn't notice, but was Varmalov hurt (a Matt Murray/Mark-Andre Fleury thing?) or did Korpisalo just overtake him as the starter in the regular season and I missed it?

CALDER CUP
The Rochester Americans (minor-league affiliate of the Buffalo Sabres) did what the Firebirds were hoping to do, winning the regular season AND the playoffs. They finished their conquest with a 4-3 win over the San Diego Gulls (Anaheim Ducks).

PLAYER AWARDS
Hart: Alex Ovechkin,LW, Washington -- 64-41-105, +48, 46 PIM
Norris: Erik Karlsson, D, Atlanta -- 20-63-83, +45, 12 PIM
Vezina: Matt Murray, Pittsburgh -- 40-16-6, 10 shutouts, .932 save %, 2.03 GAA
Calder: Viktor Kovalev, RW, Montreal -- 19-38-57, +4, 30 PIM
Conn Smythe: Joonas Korpisalo, G, Colorado
Lady Byng: Evgeny Kuznetsov, C, Washington
Masterton: Kris Letang, D, Pittsburgh
Selke: Anze Kopitar, C, Los Angeles
Lindsay: Steven Stamkos, C, Tampa Bay -- 51-59-110, +36, 38 PIM

AUTOMATIC (stats-based) AWARDS
Art Ross: Steven Stamkos -- 110 points
Maurice Richard: Alex Ovechkin -- 64 goals
William Jennings: Philipp Grubauer, Atlanta allowed 182 goals against

So... Norris yes, Vezina no. Given that Grubauer is up for free agency maybe I should be grateful I don't have to pay for the extra hardware, but I still feel like he was robbed.

DRAFT LOTTERY/TOP 10
1. San Jose
2. Vancouver
3. Florida
4. Detroit
5. NY Islanders
6. Calgary
7. NY Rangers
8. Ottawa
9. Minnesota
10. Las Vegas

NOTABLE RETIREMENTS (> 500 GP)
Kevin Bieksa, David Booth, Brendan Boyle, Troy Brouwer, Mike Cammalleri, Jason Chimera, Deryk Engelland, Martin Erat, Eric Fehr, Marcel Goc, Andy Greene, Ales Hemsky, Jimmy Howard, Matt Hunwick, Marc Methot, Torrey Mitchell, Matt Moulson, Brad Richardson, Dennis Seidenberg, Jason Spezza, Chris Thorburn

[PFellah]

Fire Brigade: Looking Back, Looking Ahead
Brock Whitney here, welcoming you back to another season retrospective edition of the Fire Brigade. As always, I'm joined by Logan Marx, Stu Kennedy, and Sarah Shaw. The Alanta Firebirds' sophomore season is in the books, and we're hear to break down what went wrong, and where the Firebirds go from here.

In many ways, it was an excellent regular season for the Firebirds. They won the division, won the Presidents' Trophy, the new free agent signings worked really well, Philipp Grubauer arguably had a Vezina-caliber season, though he ultimately lost the voting to Pittsburgh's Matt Murray. And they got past the first round of the playoffs, which they weren't able to do last season. But the offense just kind of dried up in the post-season, and while they were able to squeak out a seven-game win against Montreal, the Buffalo Sabres took advantage and put the Firebirds out of the playoffs in five.

I guess the place to start... how much of the loss do you put on the injury to Erik Karlsson?

Stu: Look, hockey players have a lot of pride, they're all going to say it's a team game and you can't put it all on one guy. That's how they're wired. But there's no question that had an impact. Now credit due, on the defensive end, Bartkowski and DeAngelo were able to step in and take up the slack. But when you look at how the offense fizzled, Karlsson is a guy who drives the offense from the back, and when you're looking at a stretch where they scored two goals in three games... you're telling me Karlsson being healthy might not have helped them put another puck or two past Bobrovsky?

Logan: I'd agree. If they had lost a forward, it would still hurt, but you can still swizzle the lines and put combinations on the ice to make things happen. Karlsson represents such a unique skill set, I don't know how you replace that. Though Tony D certainly tried, didn't he?

Stu: Oh you bet. If you're looking for silver linings, this playoff season was when I think Tony DeAngelo earned a roster spot for next season. I think they've gotta find a way to get him on the big club next year.

Logan: Agreed. With DeAngelo, it didn’t seem like it phased him. He dropped right into the lineup, he was solid at both ends. Contrast that to someone like Jake Dotchin, who was getting into fights, taking penalties... it felt like the stage was maybe a little too big for him.

Sarah: It'll be interesting to see what they do because all of their top-six defensemen are going to be under contract. Alex Petrovic was going to be the only free agent, but they traded him. Certainly Karlsson, Connor Murphy, and Chris Djoos are pretty safe, so who gets bumped between Mueller, Pelech, and Dotchin? And does that guy just become the depth defenseman, or do they move a player out entirely and give that 7th slot to more of a veteran whose development is done and won't be impacted by sitting?

Brock: That brings us to free agency. Sarah, why don't you keep the floor and break down what the team will be looking at doing this year.

Sarah: The team feels like it's in a solid position, with one big question mark. As I mentioned the top 6 defense is basically set, as are the top two lines. Their needs are going to be working out a new contract with Philipp Grubauer, and they're going to have to redo most of the bottom six forward group. Sbruev and Cogliano are still under contract, but Backes, Lowry, Yakupov, and Boedker are all free agents.

Money-wise, they've got about $20M in unrestricted free agents coming off the books and another six or seven in restricted free agents. Some of that is going to have to be Grubauer or another starting goalie, if they can't come to terms. But what’s left should be enough to address all those needs, but they'll need to be a little more efficient, they can't just open the wallet and start to write checks like they did last year.

Brock: Any thoughts on specifically who they might be interested in?

Sarah: I think they're in a place where they don't want to get too attached to individual names, they just want to see where the market goes. I think the feeling is they might have one bigger signing in them -- think about it in terms of replacing David Backes with another player in that $5-6M range to give Nikolai Sbruev at least one solid linemate. I think a few of the needs are going to be filled with internal options. It's almost definite that Linus Ullmark is going to be brought up as the backup goaltender, and there's a feeling that Mitchell Stephens or Dominik Simon could probably step into the 4th-line center role.

Brock: What about the trade market? Do we see them making a move there?

Logan: Probably nothing huge. As we discussed earlier, I could see them moving a defenseman to make room for Tony DeAngelo. He had a great year at Birmingham, and then he dropped right into the playoffs… I think there’s a feeling he’s proven everything he can in the minors and it’s time to see what he can do in the NHL.

Though, I’ve been hearing a little bit of chatter that they might be willing to shop David Perron with the idea that it’s time to move Nikolai Sbruev up into the 2nd line alongside Kesler and Nyquist. I haven’t heard a concrete proposal as far as what would be coming back – whether that would be for a draft pick, prospects, or just different guys to fill out the bottom six. I just know they’ve had some of the same conversations we’ve had about Sbruev… how much do you mess with his development by continuing to bounce him around the roster versus letting him develop some chemistry with a set line?

Brock: Are there any other internal dark horse options?

Logan: Probably not. Most of the rookies feel like they're a little further away. Artem Zubov seems like he might be someone who could get a look if he does well in camp, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

Brock: Speaking of the draft, is there any sort of master plan or position they're targeting?

Stu: It's the NHL, not the NFL. Unless you're in the top 5 or top 10, you're probably not drafting with current holes in your roster in mind. I think they mostly just has to go where the talent takes them.

Brock: Good enough. Well, we should start seeing how things play out in a few days when the draft happens. Until then, this has been the Fire Brigade, thanks for joining us.

[PFellah]

2020 Entry Draft

CENTRAL SCOUTING TOP 10

1. RW Vyacheslav Novikov (18, Russia) -- 6'2", 193 -- Elite Med PLY
2. C Boris Bure (18, Ukraine) – 6’1”, 188 -- Elite Med PLY
3. LW Cesar Lehoux (18, Canada) – 6’3”, 190 -- Elite Med TWF
4. LW Alex Aubry (18, Canada) – 6’2”, 190 – Elite Med TWF
5. D Kaden Burgundy (18, Denmark) – 5’10”, 184 -- Elite Med OFD
6. LW Alexis Lafreniere (18, Canada) – 6’1”, 188 -- Elite Med PLY
7. LW Hugo Langlois (18, Canada) – 6’0”, 183 -- Top 6 Med SNP
8. RW Jorg Aho (17, Germany) – 6’4”, 204 – (unknown)
9. D Jyrki Vaananen (18, Finalnd) – 6’3”, 207 – Top 4 Med DFD
10. RW Ludvig Lundqvist (18, Sweden) – 5’11”, 178 – Top 6 Med PLY

FIREBIRDS PICKS (INITIAL)
Round 2, Pick 60
Round 3, Pick 79 (from CHI)
Round 4, Pick 102 (from OTT)
Round 5, Pick 156
Round 7, Pick 220

I would like to add another pick or two. I feel like I'll send Dotchin or Pelech for whatever pick I can get, and I'll at least explore trades involving David Perron. The trick with Perron will be finding a team that's both interested in him AND has room under the cap, since the CPU still enforces the cap during the draft.

Looking at potential suitors, Colorado seems like a decent match. Initially, I play around with their first (pick 32) and the 4th I gave them for Yakupov back in the day (124). The bars say they'd accept it, possibly even with a little room to negotiate. I try to add a young TWD prospect (Connor Timmins) that they've got on their block, but it's just a little too much. So I go back to the 1st and the 4th, and Colorado accepts.

TRADE: Firebirds trade LW David Perron to Colorado for picks 1-32, and 4-124 (originally Atlanta's)

The next thing I try to do is move Jake Dotchin for a pick, but it becomes pretty quickly evident there's not much interest. No one will take a 4th. No one will take a 5th. The first team I tried wouldn't even take a 6th. And the opposing GM uses the phrase "hugely inflated" even describing THAT offer. At the point I'm looking at a 7th, I might as well just keep him in the minors as a spare body or make him the 7th defenseman. Or at least try again once free agency opens up some holes. Oh well.

FIREBIRDS PICKS
1-32-32 (from Colorado) – LW Jacques Ferland (18, Canada) – 6’4”, 204 TWF – Elite, decently scouted, pretty close to his central scouting rank... let's go with that.
2-28-60 – LW Alexander Kozhevnikov (18, Belarus) -- 5’8”, 175 SNP – he's only rated as Top 6, but he's listed as one of my gems, and based on his central rank, he probably won't be there next round.
3-17-79 (from Chicago) – LW Lucas Sillinger (17, Hungary) – 6'0", 188 SNP – Top 6, but most of the Elites coming up should be here next round. (Disclaimer: the clock actually ran out and auto-selected this guy, but I was probably going to take him anyway.)
4-6-102 (from Ottawa) – RW Dwight Roche(18, Norway) – 6’2” 194 TWF – getting back to taking guys with Elite potential, even if they're not well-scouted.
4-28-124 – LW Marek Demitra (17, Slovakia) – 6’1” 188 SNP – Possibly an overdraft since central had him in the 140s, but he had Elite potential and was another one of my gems.
5-28-156 – G Jadon Bruin (18, Canada) – 6'3", 200 HYB -- only Starter potential, but well-scouted.
7-28-220 – D Matyas Pivko (17, Czech Republic) – 6’1” 199 DFD – Nobody with Elite scouting left, so a Top 4 defenseman is about as good as we're going to get.

Officially, Ferland and Demitra represent the return for Perron, so I hope one or both of them pans out.

[PFellah]

2020 Free Agency

STATE OF THE ROSTER
This is a bit of a recap, but we have about $20M in unrestricted free agents coming off the books (plys $6-7M in RFAs), and most of them are fairly obvious choices. When the dust settles, we should have our top two lines (Gaudreau-Hayes-Wheeler and Sbruev-Kesler-Nyquist) and all six defensemen under contract. So that basically means we need to figure out our goaltending and rebuild the bottom six (except Andrew Cogliano) from scratch.

In-house promotions? Well, Linus Ullmark probably becomes our backup goaltender, replacing Ondrej Pavelec, and Dominik Simon (RFA, but has reasonable demands) will probably get called up to center the 4th line. So that gets us down to 4 forwards and some depth pieces.

RE-SIGN PERIOD
Priority #1 has to be Philipp Grubauer. He is asking about $5M. There are upgrades available in free agency, but they’re either guys who are going to command a lot of money (Andre Vasilevskiy and Connor Hellebuyck) or guys who are older (Pekka Rinne, Marc-Andre Fleury). (Vasilevskiy is actually an RFA, so there would also be picks involved on him). On balance, I’m feeling like it might be better to re-sign Grubauer. He actually balks at our first effort – in fact, says he wants out of Atlanta entirely – but that proves to be a negotiating tactic and he signs on the second pass at $5M a year. In fairness, I did lowball him pretty badly on the first offer at like $4.5M.

The rest of the unrestricted free agents -- David Backes, Matt Bartkowski, Beau Bennett, Mikkel Boedker, Mark Letestu, Ondrej Pavelec, Nail Yakupov – all get their walking papers. Some of them are decent players I might consider bringing back, but I figure you do the big pieces first and then see what you have left to fill in the gaps.

RFA-wise, I resign centers Dominik Simon, Mitchell Stephens, Michael Spacek, and goalie Nik Rubin. A few others (Gustav Olofsson, Oliver Kylington, Taylor Leier, Teemu Turunen, and goalie Nik Rubin) get RFA tags, and some of the no-man’s-land guys (too old to be a prospect; not good enough to make the big club) like Oskar Sundqvist and Dominic Turgeon get shown the door.

From our recent draftee pool, LW Jakub Lauko from our 2019 class looks like he’s ready to take the next step (66 OVR and Top 6 potential), so we also sign him to a full contract at about 850k.

FREE AGENCY
Our initial look focuses on assembling a third line of Chris Kreider, Erik Haula, and Michael Frolik. I thought about Evgenii Dadanov on the right, but if I went with that as a full wishlist line, I’d have almost nothing left for depth signings. So Frolik it is. I also target LW Yakov Trenin who’s 23 and has Top 6 potential and is asking less than a million. I start a little below their ask in all cases.

Early results are mixed. Kreider (4 years @ 4.8M) and Trenin (2 years @ 725k) sign after a few days. Haula rejects and doesn’t even give me a chance to counter; he re-ups with Vegas. Frolik rejects, but doesn’t have any other suitors, so I can still work on him. Plan B at center moves to Joe Thornton – he’s 41, so I’d rather give him one year than the two he’s asking for, but as a third-line center, he wouldn’t be terrible.

Thornton and Frolik go through a few rounds of rejecting and counter-offering. As this is happening I make a few minor trades.

First, Carolina offers to take Jake Dotchin off my hands for a 2nd-round pick swap. At this point, I’d rather be out from under his $1.75M, so whatever. Fair or not, he’s also become my symbolic goat for the playoff collapse. Deal.

TRADE: Firebirds trade D Jake Dotchin and their 2nd round pick in 2021 to Carolina for a 2nd-round pick in 2021 (orig: CGY).

In a move which might be an overpay (the opposing GM basically called me an idiot), I sent LW Artem Zubov (Top 6 guy, 20 years old) to Florida for C Jared McCann (also Top 6, but 24). I figure McCann can be my insurance policy if either Frolik or Thornton doesn’t work out. (Also, I’m feeling like I’m pretty deep in LW prospects, with Trenin, Lauko, and Kondratiev all in the system.) Maybe I should’ve tried to squeeze more out of the deal, but whatever.

TRADE: Firebirds trade LW Artem Zubov to Florida for C Jared McCann.

Returning to free agency, with Dotchin’s money in hand, we also decide to move in a new direction. While I’m looking around for depth parts, I notice TWD Ben Hutton is sitting out there with no offers at $3M. He’s an improvement in anyone except Karlsson, so I decide to at least get in on the action and see what happens.

A few days later, Thornton (1 year @ 3.8M) and Hutton (3 years @ 3.0M) both sign. Frolik, on the other hand, continues to be stubborn. I’m really torn here. He still feels like the perfect fit and a lot of my other options (including bringing back Jesper Fast or Mikkel Boedker) have signed somewhere else while he’s been screwing around. On the other hand, we’re now above his ask and he’s STILL whining about our locker room chemistry. I’m staying in, but I’ll admit I’m losing patience, and if he does sign, he’d better produce.

While Frolik is stringing us along, we start working on depth signings. Beau Bennett gets an offer to return as a possible depth forward, and then a bunch of quasi-prospecty guys: LW Rudolfs Balcers (another LW!), C Alexander Gonchar, G Emil Larmi, and D Pavel Prokhorkin. There’s no elite talent still on the board, but these guys are showing Top 6 forward/Top 4 defense potential levels. We also get an offer from San Jose of a 3rd-rounder for Mirco Mueller – we go ahead and take that to re-open a top-six spot for Tony DeAngelo.

FINALLY. Frolik signs (3 years @ 3.0M), and our third line of Kreider-Thornton-Frolik is ready for action. For the moment, that means Cogliano-Simon-McCann is the 4th line. Or maybe it’ll be McCann centering – Simon played some wing for the Pens in real life. TBD.

At this point, we're mostly working on extra bodies, all under a million. Beau Bennett rejects and signs with Winnipeg, but Balcers accepts (2 years @ 850k). A few days later, Larmi (1 year @ 700k), Gonchar (3 years @ 750k) and Prokhorkin (3 years @ 700k) all sign.

A few more depth offers go out. RW Ryan Reaves (1 year @ 1.5M) as a depth forward, G Jordan Binnington ( 2 years, 800k) as… well, he’ll be on a two-way deal, so he can either start in the minors or be the backup. Take your pick. Skipping ahead a few days, both accept.

I now have a dilemma. I have about $7M left, and Nicklas Backstrom (6.925M) and Max Pacioretty (4.925M) are both sitting out there with no offers. Part of me says “grab the talent, figure out where to play it” later. But that would turn somebody -- most likely Thornton or Kreider, though maybe I could juggle things so it was Frolik instead -- into a really expensive fourth-liner. I suppose in Backstrom’s case I could turn around and trade Thornton, though trading someone you just signed – even if it was a 1-year deal – is one of those things that borders on cheesy because if the other team really wanted that guy, they could’ve just signed him themselves.

I end up offering on Backstrom. We go back and forth a couple times, but he ends up signing with Vancouver (1 year @ $6.8M). Pacioretty also signed, with Toronto. No real harm done. A little cap space doesn’t bother me because it represents flexibility to take on a salary mid-season.

Taking one last look at the free agency lists, I think that’s going to do it. There’s no one left who can really make my team better, there’s no young, undervalued talent leaping out – it’s either low-ceiling guys or total shots in the dark. I might add a body or two once I get to camp and see where I need to push a Create-A-Scrub out of playing time, but other than that, I guess I’m done.

In summary, our signings end up being:

• LW Chris Kreider (4 yr/4.8M) – 3rd-line LW
• C Joe Thornton (1 yr/3.8M) – 3rd-line C
• RW Michael Frolik (3 yr/3.0M) – 3rd-line RW
• D Ben Hutton (3 yr/3.0M) – 1st/2nd-pair defenseman
• RW Ryan Reaves (1 yr/1.5M) – depth forward
• LW Taylor Leier (RFA tender/1.125M) – depth forward
• D Gustav Olofsson (RFA/870k) – depth defenseman
• LW Rudolfs Balcers (2 yr/850k) – prospect
• G Jordan Binnington (2yr/800k) – mostly a body, could compete as a backup
• D Niko Mikkola (RFA/770k) – spare body
• C Alexander Gonchar (3 yr/750k) – prospect
• LW Yakov Trenin (2 yr/725k) – prospect
• D Pavel Prokhorkin (3 yr/700k) – prospect
• G Emil Larmi (1yr/700k) – spare body

As I’m wrapping up, Washington comes calling, offering a 4th for Dylan DeMelo and a 7th. At age 27, DeMelo is done growing, and he’s also a free agent after this year, and I don’t think I’d be able to flip him for much better in-season, so what the heck. DEAL.

TRADE: Firebirds trade D Dylan DeMelo and a 7th round pick in 2020 to Washington for a 4th-round pick in 2021 (orig: WPG).

AROUND THE LEAGUE
I screwed up and forwarded to a point where most of the free agents dropped off the “signed recently” report. So I’ll just have to get this next year. The one thing I did notice is Tampa Bay is currently dealing with an Andre Vasilevskiy RFA holdout, so 23-year-old Connor Ingram and veteran Antti Niemi are holding down the fort there.

[PFellah]

Pre-Season 2020

POSTCARDS FROM TRAINING CAMP

Quote: Originally Posted by Andrew Cogliano

Yeah, there's new faces, but that's how this game works. Guys on the top line have the luxury of settling in and getting comfortable over the span of a few years. If you're not a star guy, being able to adapt and find chemistry with new guys is part of what lets you keep a job in this league. Plug-and-play... literally.

Quote: Originally Posted by Ryan Kesler

You look at what happened with us, and with Colorado winning the Cup as an 8-seed, and it's a reminder to anyone who didn't know that anything's possible and nothing's guaranteed. Home ice... it's useful, it's nice to have that energy of playing in your own building, but it's also not a suit of armor. And going on the road isn't a death sentence.

Quote: Originally Posted by Tony DeAngelo

It's nice to finally be off the bubble. I mean, you don't root for guys to get traded, some of those guys have been my teammates for the past two years in Birmingham. But when those trades are also the organization's way of saying 'we're making a commitment to you'... it's a good feeling.

Quote: Originally Posted by Michael Frolik

I had some guys razzing me for choosing 66 as a number, and I know some people online are talking about how it's disrespectful or I'm full of myself or whatever. To me it represents something to shoot for. I'm not saying I could ever be as good as Mario was, but you might as well aim as high as possible.

Quote: Originally Posted by Connor Murphy

I don't look at it as a demotion. First pair, second pair, I'm still seeing the ice. Winning is what matters, and having Ben here makes us a better team. And Juicy [Chris Djoos] and I have been here since the original expansion draft, so we've played our fair share of minutes together. I'll admit I'm a little envious because playing opposite EK makes your job as a defenseman a little easier, the ice opens up more when you're out there with a guy like that. But if Ben being here makes us a deeper, better team, and the coaches feel like these are the pairs that give us the best chance to win, I'm all for it.

GAME RESULTS


9/25 vs Florida – 5-2 L. Florida scores three straight goals in the second period off Emil Larmi, and the Panthers put up 38 shots overall. Gonchar and Djoos score for the Firebirds.

9/27 at Boston – 5-4 W. It's a game of big runs -- Boston starts the game with 3 goals; the Firebirds come back with four unanswered before Boston ties it. Rudolfs Balcers gets the winner early in the third; Xavier Bernard, Matt McCarron, Joe Thornton, and Michael Spacek also find the net.

9/30 vs Toronto – 2-0 W. Chris Kreider sees his first action with his new team (when I got him, he was unscouted so the CPU sent him to the minors) and scores the game-winning goal; Mitchell Stephens also scores. Jordan Binnington stops 26 shots for the shutout.

10/2 at Tampa Bay – 4-2 L. Starting to see more of the starters, and Tampa's get the best of the action today. Palat, McDonagh, and Kucherov do the main damage; one of their rookies adds an empty-netter at the end. Wheeler and Frolik get goals in the losing effort.

10/3 at Buffalo – 4-2 L. No measure of revenge to be found as Buffalo shells Nik Rubin with 41 shots. The score gets up to 4-0 before Atlanta gets third-period scores from Dominik Simon and Chris Kreider to make it look respectable.

10/6 vs Montreal – 4-3 W (OT). The new guys show what they can do as Kreider and Thornton get goals, and sorta-new-guy Tony DeAngelo scores the game-winner in overtime.

10/8 vs Ottawa – 3-0 L. Two periods of scoreless hockey come unglued in the third as Paajarvi, Stone, and Gaborik score for the Senators.

FINAL RECORD: 3-4-0

LINES/OPENING DAY ROSTER

FORWARD LINES

• 13 Johnny Gaudreau - 14 Kevin Hayes - 26 Blake Wheeler
• 72 Nikolai Sbruev - 21 Ryan Kesler - 15 Gustav Nyquist
• 20 Chris Kreider - 19 Joe Thornton - 66 Michael Frolik
• 8 Andrew Cogliano - 90 Jared McCann - 12 Dominik Simon
• 22 Taylor Leier, 75 Ryan Reaves as depth forwards

The CPU is fighting me on which center is on which line -- it wants to go Thornton/Hayes/Kesler, whereas I'd rather keep the two existing lines together and just drop Thornton onto to the third line. But I'm not sure I have the energy to reset it every time the CPU makes a change, so maybe I'll just roll with it and see how it goes.

Arguing with the CPU leads to one more lineup change -- the CPU really wants to start Ryan Reaves on 4th-line RW, but I want McCann in the lineup. But looking at the players involved, it might work out better to just move McCann to center and put Dominik Simon at wing. Glass half-full, Simon's a sniper and I like snipers better as wings anyway; glass half-empty, if Reaves bumps Simon out of the lineup, I'm a little more OK with that.

DEFENSE PAIRS

• 27 Ben Hutton - 65 Erik Karlsson
• 29 Christian Djoos - 5 Connor Murphy
• 50 Adam Pelech - 77 Tony DeAngelo
• 23 Gustav Olofsson as depth defenseman

GOALTENDERS

• 30 Philipp Grubauer
• 32 Linus Ullmark

CAPTAINS: Ryan Kesler (C), Erik Karlsson (A), Blake Wheeler (A). Wheeler picks up the "A" vacated by David Perron's departure.

ONE LAST LOOK
We could use a couple more bodies in the minors; specifically a RW and a D to push Rent-A-Scrubs off the depth chart. We'll also do one last walk of the trading block, just to see if there's anything enticing.

In a "two birds, one stone" vein, New Jersey has 21-year-old TWD Markus Phillips on the block. He's showing Top 4 potential, so I offer one of my three 4th-rounders for him, and New Jersey accepts (I use Winnipeg's -- I'm protective of my own picks, and Ottawa seems more rebuild-y than the Jets). For RW, it's "Pick Your Flavor Of Mediocrity" -- and I settle on Ty Ronning, a 22-year old sniper with Bottom 6 potential. I forgot I already had an offer on Brennan Menell, a 23-year-old 2-way defender with Top 6 potential so I might even end up with an extra defenseman.

[PFellah]

October 2020: Back To Square One



10/12 vs St. Louis (0-0-0) – 5-2 W.
New faces are on display, including one we didn’t expect: Linus Ullmark gets the start in net with Grubauer out of the lineup. The Blues strike first about 8 minutes in, but the newly-constructed third line makes its presence felt, with Joe Thornton feeding Michael Frolik on a two-on-one to tie the game at 1. In the second, Atlanta takes the lead courtesy of a power play goal, and they widen it early in the third on Ben Hutton’s first goal as a Firebird. The Blues trim the lead to 3-2 a few minutes later, but Nikolai Sbruev answers back with a nifty bit of skating punctuated with a backhander past Hutton. Adam Pelech adds an empty netter, and that’s all she wrote.
GOALS: ATL – Frolik 1, Gaudreau 1, Hutton 1, Sbruev 1, Pelech 1. STL – Fabbri 1, Bailey 1.

10/14 at Winnipeg (0-0-0) – 6-1 L.
Kevin Hayes scores first for Atlanta, but then Winnipeg scores, scores, and scores some more. Three goals in the first, three in the second, and that’s all she wrote.
GOALS: ATL – Hayes 1. WPG – Byfuglien 1, Connor 1, Connolly 1, Laine 1, Laine 2, Scheifele 1.

Not sure what’s going on. Grubauer appears to be healthy, he’s listed on the depth chart as the starter, and yet Ullmark has started both games. Weird. Just in case it's a bug, I go in and reorder the depth chart to make Ullmark the starter, and then put Grubauer back.

10/16 vs Toronto (0-1-0) – 2-1 L.
Well, the good news is Philipp Grubauer finally makes his season debut. The bad news is it doesn’t lead to points in the standings, as Toronto gets two first period goals from its fourth line and Michael Frolik can only get one of them back because Frederik Andersen continues to be a brick wall for the Leafs.
GOALS: ATL – Frolik 2. TOR – Grundstrom 1, Schlemko 1.

10/17 vs Carolina (0-2-0) – 4-2 L.
The Hurricanes come in winless, and despite starting their backup goaltender, are still able to drop the Firebirds to 1-3-0, scoring 4 goals on Grubauer. Johnny Gaudreau was able to score two, but no one else found the net for Atlanta.
GOALS: ATL – Gaudreau 2, Gaudreau 3. CAR – Slavin 1, Faulk 4, Aho 1, Skinner 1.

Quote: Originally Posted by Kevin Hayes

You want to get out to a good start, but nobody's going to start panicking four games into the season. Sometimes it takes a few games to work out all the kinks and get back to the kind of hockey we played all of last season. If fans or writers are going to get this worked up about four games... I hate to break it to 'em, but we've got 78 more of these to play.

Not sure how I feel about this – Toronto just offered me their 1st and 2nd round picks for Kevin Hayes. A fair offer, but dude… it’s only three games. Not ready to sell just yet.

10/19 vs Pittsburgh (1-1-1) – 6-2 W.
The Pens have consistently been one of the best teams in the league since Atlanta came into existence, but not tonight. Atlanta scores three goals and never looks back, chasing Matt Murray from the net en route to a 6-2 win. Hopefully this is the wake-up call our sputtering offense needs.
GOALS: ATL – Hayes 2, Nyquist 1, Thornton 1, Thornton 2, Karlsson 1, Gaudreau 4. PIT – Malkin 3, Kessel 3.

10/21 vs Ottawa (2-3-0) – 5-1 W.
The offensive awakening continues as Atlanta hangs 40 shots and five goals on the Senators. The first period is the Kevin Hayes Show, as the center scores a pair and assists on a Blake Wheeler goal. Andrew Cogliano and Joe Thornton also add goals, and a lone goal by Colin White spoils the shutout.
GOALS: ATL – Hayes 3, Wheeler 1, Hayes 4, Cogliano 1, Thornton 3. OTT – White 3.

10/24 vs Nashville (3-2-1) – 3-2 W.
It’s the Cup Final That Might Have Been, as last year’s regular-season champs in the East and West met. If this game was indicative of what that series would’ve held, the hockey public was robbed. After a scoreless first, Atlanta scored a pair of second period goals by Frolik and Cogliano. But early in the third, P.K. Subban made the most of a Nashville power play, and then a few minutes later, Eeli Tolvanen tied things on a screened shot that eluded Grubauer. The action went back and forth for a few minutes, before Johnny Gaudreau reminded everyone he’s still dangerous with a nifty short-side wrister for the win.
GOALS: ATL – Frolik 3, Cogliano 2, Gaudreau 5. NSH – Subban 2, Tolvanen 2.

Quote: Originally Posted by Michael Frolik

I know some of the stuff that got written during the contract negotiations was kinda negative, people saying maybe I didn't want to really come here. But that's done now, and it's good to focus on playing hockey and putting pucks in the net. When you've got a veteran leader like Joey setting the table for you, you're gonna have success.

10/27 at Las Vegas (6-1-0) – 4-1 W.
The Firebirds are back above .500 and start a little four-game road swing to end October and carry into November. First up, the Las Vegas Golden Knights, where hopefully some payback for Erik Haula will be on the menu. The teams trade goals in the first, before Atlanta scores a pair to establish a cushion in the middle stanza. In the third, Chris Kreider scores his first goal in the orange, yellow, and red.
GOALS: ATL – Hayes 5, Gaudreau 6, Simon 1. VGK – Clifford 4.

I'm not sure where else to put this, but we got our first look at the draft class, and I'm excited because my scout has identified our first mid-round guy with (maybe) Franchise potential. I'll come back and add his name later... Kalle Something... but he's a sniper that central has going in the 90s, but I have graded as Franchise AND a gem. I just hope Central doesn't figure it out and move him up because I don't have a first available.

10/28 at Los Angeles (1-5-2) – 3-1 L.
The Kings come in struggling a bit at 1-5-2, but they get the upper hand against the Firebirds. N Acciari opens the scoring in the first and Jeff Carter adds to it in the second. Gustav Nyquist gets one goal back, but Dustin Brown gets a third-period score to put the game out of reach for good.
GOALS: ATL – Nyquist 2. LA – Acciari 1, Carter 4, Brown 1.

10/30 at Dallas (5-2-2) – 4-1 W.
Final game of the month. Things get off to a bit of a slow start in the first, but then Blake Wheeler scores in the second – he’s got a ton of assists, but only his second goal of the year. In the third, it’s Johnny Gaudreau time, as J. Hockey scores a pair, with Dallas’ Devin Shore sneaking the lone Stars’ goal of the game in between his pair.
GOALS: ATL – Wheeler 2, Gaudreau 7, Gaudreau 8. DAL – Shore 4.

Quote: Originally Posted by Blake Wheeler

I'm not going to worry too much about it. I started a little slow last year too. I think as a unit, this line is doing what we're supposed to do. If they shut down all three of us, then it's a problem, but if Johnny and Kev are getting chances and my role is more to set them up for now, it's fine. It's a long season, and it all comes around eventually.

MONTHLY SUMMARY

STANDINGS REPORT

• MONTH: 6-4-0
• YEAR-TO-DATE: 6-4-0, 10 points
• DIVISION: Third in Atlantic with 12 points. Technically tied with Buffalo, but they have a game-in-hand at 6-3-0. MTL leads the division at 7-1-2 (16).
• CONFERENCE: It’s a three-way tie for 4th-6th in the conference. Top 8: MTL 16, NJ 16, NYR 14, BUF 12, PHI 12, ATL 12, TOR 10, CAR 9.
  

TEAM LEADERS

• POINTS: Gaudreau 14, Wheeler 12, Hayes 9, Thornton 8, Karlsson 8
• GOALS: Gaudreau 8, Hayes 5, Frolik 3, Thornton 3, Cogliano 2, Wheeler 2, Nyquist 2
• ASSISTS: Wheeler 10, Karlsson 7, Gaudreau 6, Thornton 5, Sbruev 5
• PLUS-MINUS: Pelech 8, Wheeler 4, Gaudreay 4, Murphy 3, DeAngelo 3, Hayes 3

ON THE FARM
Birmingham starts with an identical 6-4-0 start to its parent club, good for 4th in the division. Defense seems to be the watchword, as the Bandits have only allowed 18 goals in 10 games, but they aren’t scoring a lot either (23 goals scored). Rudolfs Balcers and Mitch Stephens lead the team with 3 goals each; Balcers also leads the team in points with 8. Nik Rubin is getting the lion’s share of the starts and has a 1.74 GAA, but only a 4-4 record to show for it.

[PFellah]

October 2020: Around The League


STANDINGS


Not much to be read into these standings, but at the bottom, Tampa could be in for a long year if they can't get Vasilevskiy inked, and I have a general recollection Detroit didn't seem to do a lot to improve their roster (and in fact sent Anthony Mantha packing to Florida).

LEAGUE LEADERS


J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets! Winnipeg isn't killing it team-wise, but they must have a pretty good top line clicking. Johnny Hockey gives me my first goal-scoring leaderboard presence since Ryan Kesler flirted with the top 10 back in our inaugural season. Grubauer is actually still having a good season, it feels like he's just off the leaderboards in most of the categories, and could easily move up the charts pretty quickly.

CALDER WATCH


It's early, but what strikes me about this table, is the amount of pedigree talent, and in particular, the talent from this year's draft. The top 4 picks from 2020 (Novikov, Bure, Lehoux, and Aubry) are all contributing early, and there's only one guy on the leaderboard who wasn't a 1st-round pick (Jeremy Roy).

I decided not to track goalies yet, because with 3 games being the minimum threshhold, there were like 6 or 7 goalies who qualified. I'll wait a month and clear out some small sample size before I decide what goalies (if any) are worth tracking.

[PFellah]

Thinking about restarting a new franchise... culmination of little things I didn't like adding up:

- screwed up my Year 1 drafting because I didn't really get how the system worked
- bright orange unis a little hard to look at over and over
- feel like I might have a better uni/team concept in general
- want to up the trade difficulty
- some positive improvements in presentation, some of which I suppose I could just incorporate on the fly, but a clean start might be more fun.

TBD...