For anyone who is interested, I have come up with a grading system to evaluate draft prospects that gives them a score of X/100, which I am calling a “confidence score.”
This grade allows you to determine their likelihood for future success. I’m almost done testing it. Probably one more season and I’ll be ready to release it. In my last season, I had the overall position ranking on my draft board under a positional variance of one. This means that I was able to rank my overall board within an average of +/- 1 of how each player finally graded out by overall rating. There were a handful of players who either moved up or down a few spots in their final positional grade (overall rating), but these were outliers and I was able to literally nail something like 40/60 guys on my personal draft board.
If this is something you’d be interested in, let me know. It’s making the drafting side of the game really fun for me!
Edit: I just completed my draft following my 2023 GM season. My draft variance was 0.67/player out of my 57-player draft board. In truth, the only reason it was even that bad is that the WR came in particularly poor, with only 4 players over 70. I nailed 36 of 57 players exactly where they were rated overall by my draft-positioning-per-player-position
I nailed kickers and punters perfectly, with a variance of 0.0. My variance for CBs was 0.14, HBs was 0.25, DEs was 0.4, and WRs was 2.0.
I also called two UDFAS pickups at halfback. 3 of the players I had lower on my board were drafted ahead of them.
I’m very pleased with my scoring system. It gives me incredible insight into who I’m targeting. I got the top halfback, top kicker, and top available players (by overall rating) at DE and CB. My only miss was on WR, where I took the 8th ranked WR (again, by overall rating) after the top 4 WRs were off the board.
Sent from my iPhone using
Operation Sports
03-19-2020, 10:49 AM
