Linear Play Speed Adjusted 40 Model

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  • Hooe
    Hall Of Fame
    • Aug 2002
    • 21554

    #1

    Linear Play Speed Adjusted 40 Model

    This site serves as a portfolio for Joey's research and analysis dedicated to the game of football using a unique blend of analytics and film study. Click to read Joey's Research Portfolio - Advance Scouting Analytics, by Joseph Ferraiola, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.


    Thought this was an interesting study comparing NFL players' peak on-field speed, as measured by the tracking data captured by computer chips in each players' pads, to their NFL Combine 40-yard dash times.

    I wonder if and how EA Sports could incorporate some of this data into their Madden NFL player ratings; a lot of the names mentioned here are 40-yard dash outliers who, in either direction, see their play speed move towards an average value. If I recall correctly, most of the time the SPD rating in Madden (both for the roster ratings and for rookie scouting in Franchise) is based purely off of 40 time. That may not necessarily be accurate?
  • Playmakers
    Hall Of Fame
    • Sep 2004
    • 15409

    #2
    Re: Linear Play Speed Adjusted 40 Model

    Originally posted by CM Hooe
    https://josephferraiola.substack.com...model?sort=new

    Thought this was an interesting study comparing NFL players' peak on-field speed, as measured by the tracking data captured by computer chips in each players' pads, to their NFL Combine 40-yard dash times.

    I wonder if and how EA Sports could incorporate some of this data into their Madden NFL player ratings; a lot of the names mentioned here are 40-yard dash outliers who, in either direction, see their play speed move towards an average value. If I recall correctly, most of the time the SPD rating in Madden (both for the roster ratings and for rookie scouting in Franchise) is based purely off of 40 time. That may not necessarily be accurate?
    I'm not sure that is entirely true in regards to speed ratings by EA

    I have combine 40 times that date back to the 90's and EA will often assign a player a higher speed rating than his actual 40 time recorded.

    They will often give guys who ran a 4.5 or 4.6 a speed in the 90's

    For example take Emmitt Smith and Shaun Alexander neither guy was a burner and both of them had decent speed. But EA would jack up their speed ratings way beyond their 40 times just to inflate their overall ratings.
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    • Hooe
      Hall Of Fame
      • Aug 2002
      • 21554

      #3
      Linear Play Speed Adjusted 40 Model

      Originally posted by Playmakers
      For example take Emmitt Smith and Shaun Alexander neither guy was a burner and both of them had decent speed. But EA would jack up their speed ratings way beyond their 40 times just to inflate their overall ratings.
      Hmm. Do you have any examples of such players since NFL started tracking player telemetry data with the league’s Next-Gen Stats program, which all 32 teams were participating in by the start of the 2017 season (so Madden 18 onward)?

      This study can’t possibly apply to players who finished their playing careers before that season since Next-Gen Stats either didn’t yet exist or was not yet fully deployed league-wide.

      Comment

      • Cycloniac
        Man, myth, legend.
        • May 2009
        • 6504

        #4
        Re: Linear Play Speed Adjusted 40 Model

        Originally posted by Playmakers
        I'm not sure that is entirely true in regards to speed ratings by EA

        I have combine 40 times that date back to the 90's and EA will often assign a player a higher speed rating than his actual 40 time recorded.

        They will often give guys who ran a 4.5 or 4.6 a speed in the 90's

        For example take Emmitt Smith and Shaun Alexander neither guy was a burner and both of them had decent speed. But EA would jack up their speed ratings way beyond their 40 times just to inflate their overall ratings.
        I think EA uses a curved formula so the discrepency between say 4.4 and 4.5 isn't so wide.

        When I was making custom rosters for Madden, I used a curve and an age adjustment for speed.
        THE TrueSim PROJECTS



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        • Madden08PCgmr
          MVP
          • Feb 2017
          • 2441

          #5
          Re: Linear Play Speed Adjusted 40 Model

          Jerry Rice wasn't the fastest guy. 4.5-ish? But what did the film say? Most of the time, he's flat out running away from his competition.

          Same with Emmitt. How many times was he caught from behind?

          Game speed > 40 time.. I quit losing my mind over a players Madden speed rating.

          .. but I do feel the speed ratings became more and more exaggerated over the years. Tehy did a pretty good job rating the speed burners in past gen versions.
          You want free speech?
          Let's see you acknowledge a man whose words make your blood boil, advocating at the top of his lungs that which you would spend a lifetime opposing at the top of yours.

          Comment

          • Ghost Of The Year
            Turn Left. Repeat.
            • Mar 2014
            • 6365

            #6
            Re: Linear Play Speed Adjusted 40 Model

            Originally posted by Madden08PCgmr
            Jerry Rice wasn't the fastest guy. 4.5-ish? But what did the film say? Most of the time, he's flat out running away from his competition.

            Same with Emmitt. How many times was he caught from behind?

            Game speed > 40 time.. I quit losing my mind over a players Madden speed rating.

            .. but I do feel the speed ratings became more and more exaggerated over the years. Tehy did a pretty good job rating the speed burners in past gen versions.
            Yeah, I'd rather EA use game speed instead of 40 yard dash times. I don't care how fast a guy is running in a straight line sans helmet and pads. Just base it soley on game speed.
            T-BONE.

            Talking about things nobody cares.

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