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Old 09-14-2015, 07:22 AM   #1
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LT / QB / Sacks

Now ive started a new thread, but feel free to merge into whatever is relevant as there appears to be a few covering each area.

Basically I have done a few tests (that may have been done) that I feel may help the situation, however please call me out if they dont as im not an NFL expert by any means... im a couple years removed from having Madden as well, so please if anything, be constructive and point me in the right direction if im way off the mark.

Anyway for test purposes my sim was based on:

Offline Solo CFM
Weekly Progression
OS Simulation V1 Roster (thanks to them for doing this, found in the roster section of these boards)

SIM 1 - Roster as is:

Code:
Player		Team		Sacks/All	Team Total
Bushrod		CHI		35		64
Robinson	STL		35		55
Kalil		MIN		34		52
Williams/	WAS		25/19		51
Compton
Investigating these compared to the best 3 teams 'Sacks Allowed' the biggest difference was that these teams had a QB(s) with Sense Pressure set to Average or Lower. They also had lower AWR stats to begin with, but nothing drastic to make me think this is causing the LTs to cave in.

So for SIM 2 what I did was change all the 4 above teams QBs to Sense Pressure 'IDEAL' and left everything else the same.

Code:
Player		Team		Sacks/All	Team Total
Bushrod		CHI		19		34
Robinson	STL		17		35
Kalil		MIN		8		23
Williams/	WAS		6/7		21
Compton
Now you can see instantly that the team total sacks have dropped and in the case of Minnesota, Kalil now gives up 0.5 per game, where as before it was over 2 per game!

Interestingly if you look at the players stats (bare in mind this is a full sim with weekly progression):

Code:
		OVR		PBK	RBK	AWR
Robinson	84 (+11)	70 (-3)	89 (+1)	77 (+3)
Bushrod		85 (+6)		82 (-5)	74 (+2)	86 (-2)
Kalil		81 (+9)		82 (+9)	85 (+3)	88 (+4)
That is how they looked before the playoffs, again I defer to experience here if that is as it should look (worse or better).

In terms of the 3 teams QBs who took the sacks and their AWR progression:

Foles dropped from 78 to 68
Cutler dropped slightly from 74 to 73
Bridgewater improved nicely from 77 to 84

In regards to league wide sack numbers, well they stacked up well against the 2014 real NFL stats:

STL topped the charts with 53, one of 2 teams to break 50.
7 teams managed 40+ and then the majority of teams broke the 30 mark and higher.
At the bottom, CHI managed just 20... whilst the 2nd least was 27, so no major dropoffs and again in par with what the 2014 numbers looked like.

-----

I mean people can rip the guts out of that or ask me to do something else, but if im not wrong in my reading on these boards, it at least addresses the LT regression issue? QB AWR isnt drastically dying off for the worst effected teams and the total number of sacks allowed comes back into 'realistic' values rather than huge numbers?

I appreciate its a small sample size, but I took the worst offenders in a 'clean' sim and worked from there.

Thoughts?
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Old 09-14-2015, 09:44 AM   #2
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Re: LT / QB / Sacks

Rolled the dice again, this time every rostered QB has had their Sense Pressure set to Ideal. *Unless it was set to Trigger Happy, if so, I left that as it was.

This time 3 guys broke the 20 sacks allowed mark, 2 more broke the 15 barrier.. the usual suspects with the Top 5 as follows:

Code:
Player		Team		SacksAll	TeamTotal
Lewan		TEN		22		57
Robinson	STL		20		48
Reiff		DET		20		43
Williams	JAX		18		32
Seymour		PHI		18		26
Still the problem appears to be the LT position, but again its (bar the Eagles which is a unique situation, as Peters got a Season ending injury) a case of under or around 40%, where as before the change we were upto 60-70% of total sacks and higher numbers across the board.

Robinson remained solid bar a dip in PBK but nothing massive:

Code:
		OVR	PBK	RBK	AWR
Robinson	+11	-5	0	+4
Foles AWR increased by +1, albeit he did share QB time with the other 2 Ram QBs in this particular sim.

As for Reiff and Lewan:

Code:
		PBK	RBK	AWR
Lewan		-1	+3	+12
Reiff		-5	-1	+6
Im assuming its the -5 PBK dropoff that shouldnt be happening, as he shouldnt be giving up 20+ sacks for example?
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Old 09-14-2015, 01:38 PM   #3
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Re: LT / QB / Sacks

I think I might have fixed Robinson of STL... the much maligned example of the failed LT issue....

Another sim, focused on him tbh... set as above, with the STL QBs all having IDEAL for their sense pressure trait, then for Robinson I have given him 'HIGH MOTOR - YES'

I did this based on looking around the league and wondering why other teams didnt have the wild LT sack issue... now it might coincide with other things, but in this SIM, Robinson and the STL offensive line have shared the Sacks allowed state.

In total STL gave up 27 sacks, with Keenum and Foles sharing time in the pocket. Robinson was at fault for 4.... from 30+ at the raw sim, down to single digits in this.



In addition he progressed +4 in PBK...



Ive only just started on this route, it might mean nothing, I could well be barking at the wrong tree.... but if this stops the kill on LTs, it might be worth progressing.
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Old 09-14-2015, 01:47 PM   #4
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Re: LT / QB / Sacks

This is interesting and I'm following. Keep us posted!
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Old 09-14-2015, 02:52 PM   #5
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Re: LT / QB / Sacks

So you're saying whenever a QB has the "Sense Pressure" trait listed as "Average" or "Low", it should be changed to "Ideal" and that will make the LT regression issue go away?

This is interesting stuff, keep up the good work OP.
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Old 09-14-2015, 03:07 PM   #6
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Re: LT / QB / Sacks

Quote:
Originally Posted by IcedCoffee1983
So you're saying whenever a QB has the "Sense Pressure" trait listed as "Average" or "Low", it should be changed to "Ideal" and that will make the LT regression issue go away?

This is interesting stuff, keep up the good work OP.
Sort of, IDEAL definitely helps reduce the numbers... but they can still be high (Well im assuming high is 20-25?)

Now the thing im currently testing in SIM is IDEAL and the LT to have HIGH MOTOR YES.... atm although the LT position is still responsible in the main for the most Sacks allowed, the results are coming in at 0.5 / 1 per game (ie 8-16 for the season) in comparison to 30-35 at the top end, at like 2+ per game.

Whether people are bothered about that stat as much as the regression idk, but im seeing LTs have their PBK go down by say -5 per season to go up by +5 per season, based on how well they have done... including Robinson, Bushrod etc who had the major problems in my opening test.

EDIT - In the main, if a player is giving up say 12-16 sacks allowed per season, he is dropping -4 on PBK, if the player is sub 10 the results can see them gain +4/5 in PBK per season (based on a 1 season sim).

Last edited by bestbrother; 09-14-2015 at 03:15 PM.
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Old 09-14-2015, 03:16 PM   #7
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Re: LT / QB / Sacks

If you have the time to do so: could you also see how much the LT sacks allowed stats are affected by adjusting only the High Motor trait and leaving QB Senses Pressure traits alone?
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Old 09-14-2015, 05:01 PM   #8
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Re: LT / QB / Sacks

I will run that test next CM Hooe

OK based on what I believed helped Robinson (in the earlier screenshots), I set as many QBs to IDEAL and their LTs to HIGH MOTOR YES, as I remembered (unfortunately as you will see a couple of teams slipped under the radar).



Unfortunately you can see a few teams had a TRIGGER HAPPY QB, with also DET causing an issue when taking on QB Thad Lewis, to put Reiff into the frame for the sole time.

These results come from 3 SIMs, ive taken those players with a 10+ Sacks allowed stat from the 3 individual years and taken a look at how many they gave up, how many the team gave up and its relevance to their PBK progression.

As you can see Robinson has not lived up to his screenshot status which im surprised about, but overall things are tighter with 20 sacks allowed being the most all together.

Ill leave the numbers for others to view and dissect

As a side note, I also averaged the total amount of league wide sacks as this stat is likely to be affected and as such the average per team over 3 seasons came in at just under 32... with a low of 17 and a high of 57.

EDIT - Outside of this range of players, LTs were progressing nicely for example Clady (DEN) allowed 8 sacks but improved by +4, whilst Smith (DAL) in one sim allowed 3 and improved by +3 to a 99.

Regression is roughly 6-8 players per year in the sim, most of which low and acceptable as the player dosent totally collapse off the radar.

Last edited by bestbrother; 09-14-2015 at 05:18 PM.
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