ideas for improving confidence

[ggsimmonds]

We all agree, or most of us anyway, that the confidence mechanic is currently hurting the franchise experience.

But I think it is a good idea to include a concept of confidence in CFM. Here is my idea for how it should be handled. Please provide feedback and if you have any ideas of your own do share. If you think it is not worth saving explain why.

I think confidence should be more of a short term thing. There should be a built in pull or drift towards 50. However, changes week to week should be larger.

For example in my current Ravens CFM Joe Flacco had a game in week 8 where he threw for 363 yards, 5 TD, and 0 int in a win against a divisional rival. Lets say he had 50 confidence going into that game. After that game his confidence should shoot way up, like to 99 going into week 9. But each week there is that pull back to 50 so in order to keep confidence the same level, he would need to keep playing at a high level. Lets say that in week 9 he throws for 280 yards, 2 TDs, and 0 int. Maybe a solid game but not nearly as good as the week before, so heading into week 10 his confidence is now 65. Lets then imagine that the Ravens had their bye week in week 10. In week 11 Joe's confidence would then be 50 because of the drift.

The same would hold true if we flip it so that in week 8 he had 0 TDs and 4 ints. Week 9 would see his confidence at 0, but as long as he does not have a equally bad performance, his confidence will improve. We can imagine having a bye week after a performance like that would be very helpful indeed!

I think such a system is more realistic. You can make the playoffs as a wildcard team but if your team is "hot at the right time" it could be of great help, just like what we hear in real sports, even if it is a bit of a cliche.

There would be a few things to work out:

1. Rookies. They should be somewhat different. Maybe they are more sensitive to changes so the week to week change could be greater? Doesn't take them as much to improve confidence but also can go down more easily.

2. Math. We would have to establish the baseline. Without running the numbers, I think a average game in passing yards for a QB is around 250. We would need baselines for each variable. We would need to calculate the rate of drift. The equation and values would be the hardest part. It would be hard finding the right balance (e.g. your QB had an average game, but you won. Is the boost from winning enough to overpower the drift towards 50? No, 50 confidence for you).

3. Carry over from year to year. There should be some kind of carry over, but it should only last for the first few weeks of a new season. Say your RB rushed for over 1800 yards in 2015. He should start 2016 feeling a little good about himself. But by week 3 2015 no longer matters.

In summary it would be a game of percentage modifiers. First you determine the rate of drift. Just an example, the rate of drift at 99 confidence would be 49% (=48.51, so 99-48.51 rounded is 50). You threw 3 TDs=+15%. You won +5%. You threw 0 ints +10%, and so on. You then add up the values of the game performance. Lets say it equals 30%. Unfortunately that is less than the 49% drift . So 49-30=19. Your confidence will decrease by 19%. So next week your confidence would be 80.

Discussion questions (there will be a test :P)
1. Would you like such a system?
2. Would it be doable?
3. What would some of the problems be?