Over the top Franchise player regression

[Jimbo12308]

This dramatic level of regression is necessary in order to replicate the manual ratings fluctuation that happens with every new Madden and also throughout the Madden cycle with roster updates.

Here are some of the most significant regressions from M18 to M19:

*These are overall Ratings, not individual attributes, so imagine how much the individual attributes had to fall in order for this to occur*

Michael Burton - dropped 22 OVR (85-63)
Derrick Coleman - dropped 12 OVR (75-63)
Ramik Wilson - dropped 10 OVR (79-69)
J.J. Wilcox - dropped 10 OVR (81-71)
Jamie Collins - dropped 9 OVR (85-76)
Terrelle Pryor Sr. - dropped 8 OVR (83-75)
Jimmy Graham - dropped 7 OVR (93-86)
Kyle Juszczyck - dropped 7 OVR (91-84)
Andy Dalton - dropped 7 OVR (84-77)
Matt Ryan - dropped 7 OVR (96-89)
Chris Harris Jr - dropped 6 OVR (94-88)
Derek Carr - dropped 6 OVR (89-83)
Terrance West - dropped 6 OVR (81-75)
Ryan Tannehill - dropped 5 OVR (83-78)
Dont’a Hightower - dropped 5 OVR (89-84)
Aquib Talib - dropped 5 OVR (94-89)


Some of the regressions that have been shown in this thread:
Larry Fitzgerald - dropped 7 OVR (89-82)
Desean Jackson - dropped 5 OVR (85-80)
Rob Gronkowski - dropped 2 OVR (99-97)


When I look at numbers like that here is what I see:

First, if anything regression needs to be more aggressive, not less. Some players ratings were adjusted by more than 10 OVR from M18 to M19. But we don’t see that kind of regression from season to season in franchise.

Second, the players who are eligible to regress dramatically needs to be wider. That list above did not just include players 28+, yet the only players who seem to regress this dramatically in Madden are old players. Poor performance should be equally, if not more impactful in terms of regression than age.

Third, as an extension of that, regression should be far less predictable. It’s good that it’s now varied with which ratings fall, but the players selected for regression should be less predictable. Young players (as I’ve mentioned above) should be susceptible, but also old players should not always regress. For example:

Lavonte David (28) - overall increased 11 (84-95)
Jabaal Sheard (29) - overall increased 10 (79-89)
Nick Foles (28) - overall increased 9 (71-80)
Case Keenum (30) - overall increased 8 (73-81)
Danny Amendola (32) - overall increased 7 (78-85)
Antoine Bethea (34) - overall increased 7 (75-82)
Casey Hayward (28) - overall increased 5 (86-91)
Sean Lee (32) - overall increased 5 (91-96)
Stephen Gostkowski (34) - overall increased 5 (78-83)
Rodney Hudson (29) - overall increased 5 (90-95)
Antonio Brown (30) - overall increased 2 (97-99)

*These are just the examples I found from 1 website listing each team’s most significant riser in ratings, there are probably dozens more 28+ year old players who PROGRESSED not regressed.*


Fourth, as another extension of the above, regression should vary in its frequency. Some players should decline very slowly but surely each year. Others should take an 8 point overall decrease in one year and then should barely change for the next 3. Nothing should be predictable.

Fifth, there needs to be more dynamic changes in ratings in general - and this also applies to older players and regression. Currently, the system of regression is both predictable (though less predictable than in the past, but still too predictable) and also uninformed (not impacted by player performance at all). One of two things need to happen: either, A) ratings need to fluctuate significantly positively and negatively so that examples like Danny Amendola going from a 78 to an 85 at age 32 can happen. Or B) production should inform (not entirely decide, but inform) progression and regression so that examples like Danny Amendola can happen. I know many people are super passionate about this being a terrible option, but the truth is that currently ratings in Madden ARE determined by production. If 73 rated Brian Quick (29 years old) somehow catches 85 passes for 1300 yards and 8 TDs this year, what do you think he’ll be rated in M20? 75? 77? Hell no, he’ll probably be up around 85 or more. But does that happen in Madden CFM? No, he’d probably regress a few OVR points at the end of the year. I realize that skills and stats are not equivalent, which is why a system of more dynamic and chaotic ratings variations (like I mentioned above) would also be fitting. But one of them needs to happen. The game is so boring, predictable, and unrealistic (like in Amendola’s example) when you know who’s going to regress, when it’s going to happen, when you have a good guess at by how much, and when that regression has no connection to what’s happening on the field. Even if stats could just be used to stave off regression to an extent, that would be an improvement. If a guy like Fitzgerald at 34 puts up 75 catches for 1000 yards and 7 TDs while Brandon Marshall also at 34 puts up 30 catches for 400 yards and 2 TDs, that should be evidence that Marshall has fallen off the cliff and Fitzgerald has fought off age to an extent for another year. Perhaps they both regress, but Marshall does so much more. Right now, the regression (and progression) system is predictable and uniformed - it should be either unpredictable (more dynamic/chaotic changes) or informed (based off production). I’ll take one or the other, but the current predictable and uninformed model is poor.

[Ueauvan]

why not adjust ratings but delete ovrs. your coaches and scouts reveal certain attributes and the better the coach the more accurate the determination of a rating. the ovr thing really screws the game up. i doubt anyone but hard core sim players have retained their 43 ovr TE who is the long snapper, who's ls rating was less than everyone elses because of the ls calc.

[timhere1970]

If you are 30 or over and your production has fallen from your prime the odds of retiring neex to be astronomicaly increased. That is how it works in real life either voluntarily or nobody wanting you. In madden the cpu is always willing to clog up their depth charts with mediocre 32 year olds which prevents young players from getting playing time and stunts their progression. Last year i had a system of editing awareness drastically for these players before advancing super bowl week to force retirement or into the pool of free agents no team would want. Had the added benefit of forcing bad contracts for thise who were signed long term.

[Airfaron23]

I just wish Madden would do away with XP and development traits and give us a Potential rating and progression/regression system like MLB The Show

[Therebelyell626]

Quote: Originally Posted by Airfaron23

I just wish Madden would do away with XP and development traits and give us a Potential rating and progression/regression system like MLB The Show

Mlb the show is one hundred percent production based. This would be a terrible idea for madden. Prospects who are not quite good enough to start right away never would be good enough to start because they would never play. There is no minor league system in madden

[Therebelyell626]

Honestly progression/regression is the best this year it has ever been since they changed to experience