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Regression. WTF EA?

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Old 11-28-2018, 11:09 AM   #57
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Re: Regression. WTF EA?

I agree with a lot of what's said here, but I don't think tying a reduction in OVR to age for the majority of players 100% reflects the NFL and the lack of players over 30 on rosters.

Yes, age is a factor - but so is overall ability not being quantified in the first place. Teams will draft players with only a rough idea of whether they're good enough to make it. A number of players don't make it past (or to) the end of those contracts because they weren't good enough in the first place. I don't think Peterman (and other players like him) won't be on a roster at 30 because of his age, but because he threw 12 picks in 68 pass attempts.

And so is money. Obviously older players are more expensive, even on veteran minimum. Therefore teams are going to balance keeping a 6-year vet on the roster against the fact they could get two younger players at the same price.

And these two factors combined make it worse. You know what you're getting (to an extent) with a veteran, and it's more expensive. Most general managers will roll the dice on getting someone they can develop for less money.

I get what the game is trying to do, but a blanket approach of saying every player who hits 30 gets worse isn't that accurate for me.
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Old 11-28-2018, 11:10 AM   #58
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Re: Regression. WTF EA?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thegafferuk
I agree with a lot of what's said here, but I don't think tying a reduction in OVR to age for the majority of players 100% reflects the NFL and the lack of players over 30 on rosters.

Yes, age is a factor - but so is overall ability not being quantified in the first place. Teams will draft players with only a rough idea of whether they're good enough to make it. A number of players don't make it past (or to) the end of those contracts because they weren't good enough in the first place. I don't think Peterman (and other players like him) won't be on a roster at 30 because of his age, but because he threw 12 picks in 68 pass attempts.

And so is money. Obviously older players are more expensive, even on veteran minimum. Therefore teams are going to balance keeping a 6-year vet on the roster against the fact they could get two younger players at the same price.

And these two factors combined make it worse. You know what you're getting (to an extent) with a veteran, and it's more expensive. Most general managers will roll the dice on getting someone they can develop for less money.

I get what the game is trying to do, but a blanket approach of saying every player who hits 30 gets worse isn't that accurate for me.
12 picks in 130 attempts - not 68. If you're reading this, sorry Nathan...
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Old 11-28-2018, 11:56 AM   #59
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Re: Regression. WTF EA?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thegafferuk
I agree with a lot of what's said here, but I don't think tying a reduction in OVR to age for the majority of players 100% reflects the NFL and the lack of players over 30 on rosters.

Yes, age is a factor - but so is overall ability not being quantified in the first place. Teams will draft players with only a rough idea of whether they're good enough to make it. A number of players don't make it past (or to) the end of those contracts because they weren't good enough in the first place. I don't think Peterman (and other players like him) won't be on a roster at 30 because of his age, but because he threw 12 picks in 68 pass attempts.

And so is money. Obviously older players are more expensive, even on veteran minimum. Therefore teams are going to balance keeping a 6-year vet on the roster against the fact they could get two younger players at the same price.

And these two factors combined make it worse. You know what you're getting (to an extent) with a veteran, and it's more expensive. Most general managers will roll the dice on getting someone they can develop for less money.

I get what the game is trying to do, but a blanket approach of saying every player who hits 30 gets worse isn't that accurate for me.

This is probably my biggest problem with regression as it is now is that there doesn't seem to be much randomness to it. I wish we would have more players randomly hold off regression in to their 30's and also more players unexpectedly go on a sharp decline.
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Old 11-28-2018, 01:30 PM   #60
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Re: Regression. WTF EA?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thegafferuk
I agree with a lot of what's said here, but I don't think tying a reduction in OVR to age for the majority of players 100% reflects the NFL and the lack of players over 30 on rosters.

Yes, age is a factor - but so is overall ability not being quantified in the first place. Teams will draft players with only a rough idea of whether they're good enough to make it. A number of players don't make it past (or to) the end of those contracts because they weren't good enough in the first place. I don't think Peterman (and other players like him) won't be on a roster at 30 because of his age, but because he threw 12 picks in 68 pass attempts.

And so is money. Obviously older players are more expensive, even on veteran minimum. Therefore teams are going to balance keeping a 6-year vet on the roster against the fact they could get two younger players at the same price.

And these two factors combined make it worse. You know what you're getting (to an extent) with a veteran, and it's more expensive. Most general managers will roll the dice on getting someone they can develop for less money.

I get what the game is trying to do, but a blanket approach of saying every player who hits 30 gets worse isn't that accurate for me.
My sentiments exactly. I can understand physical attribute drops. Mother nature changes your body every year you age but not THAT much and certainly not that drastic. With exceptions being injury of course.
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Old 11-28-2018, 03:37 PM   #61
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Re: Regression. WTF EA?

I think even speed ratings highlight that regression is maybe too linear or scripted in the game.

Do you remember a couple of years ago where they had the “veteran combine” for players without teams? And it ended all their careers because all the backs ran 4.80-5.00 40 times? I think a lot of those players were in their mid-20s and couldn’t recreate their rookie combine times. I think age, injury, wear and tear, body type all play a part in how players would change over time. I’d be surprised if more than a few notable players maintained their rookie combine speed beyond a few years in the league.

The current regression seems to be that, say, if a player ran a 4.35 40 time before he was drafted he would get a SPD of 90 at age 22. That speed would stay constant until he was 29 (meaning he would run a 4.35 all that time). But then it would steadily drop after that - so at 30 he would run a 4.4, 31 it would be a 4.45, 32 it would be a 4.5 and so on.

I get that they’re just trying to balance the overall ratings, and realise I’m not offering any solutions, but don’t think it’s the case that every player stays constant for X years and then goes in steady decline after that.

I know there are arguments against tying the ratings more closely to production, or maybe giving players hidden atttributes that cap or alter their progression / regression, but I’d be happier with either of those ahead of the current system.
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