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auto generated draft is terrible

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Old 01-04-2021, 06:58 AM   #49
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Re: auto generated draft is terrible

Quote:
Originally Posted by MakaveliLPC
The draft classes in a vacuum are fun and cool. But as the years go by you start to see that there's not enough talent if you're just doing cpu generated classes. Say you sim 5-6 years ahead, you will be hard pressed to find any cpu generated players leading, or even top 10-20 in any stat categories. It's especially evident in running backs.. they're just not good enough and dont improve fast enough

In my online franchise w three other humans we are 5 years in and you have to scroll down about 25 running backs before you get to a generated player and even then they're averaging like 3.5 ypc.

Also in longer simulation tests you'll find all Team OVR Rating will decline sharply due to the cpu generated draft classes simply not being good enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by timhere1970
I feel the problem is more the original rosters being to strong than the generated classes being too weak. This leads to the generated players not getting playing time and thus not developing.
The problem is rather the EA roster.
I have now simulated over 20x12 years, most with TFG roster, but also some times with the EA roster as a comparison, and everything read out in excel (PC, madden20, portet EA m21 week17 roster, porter TFG roster).
Almost all positions have the problem that the average, especially the young players, is too high. This leads exactly to what has been mentioned here more than once: The new rookies of the gen classes don't get playing time and can't get better.
With the HBs the problem is really bad, which is probably why you noticed it so much.
Here is the graphic from the EA simulation of the HBs. The first one shows the OVR development of the position 1-64 (not of the player) of signed players over 12 years. The second graph shows the average OVR of the top half (top 32) and the third graph shows the average age of the top 32. The fourth graph shows the spread of the age by position 1-64 over 12 years.





It can be clearly seen that the OVR decreases for several years and the age continues to increase. The halfbacks are there almost only with players from the EA roster, which have developed even more over the years, and are now only very slowly exchanged for new rookies. They are then all significantly worse and the OVR drops massively as a result. The problem occurs more or less on every position.
An increase of the XP slider unfortunately brings nothing, because the EA Roster players become even stronger. This increases the OVR curve in the first few years and partly causes even more problems.
What helps is a roster like TFG, which has a lower average OVR and fits the draft classes.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Armor and Sword
The EA generated classes have been very good on Madden 21. Best they have ever been.
How many classes did you look at for this, and how exactly did you compare it to make such a confident conclusion?
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Last edited by jay87; 01-04-2021 at 07:01 AM.
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Old 01-04-2021, 08:10 AM   #50
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Re: auto generated draft is terrible

Think the thread here actually mixes up several points, but not all (or none) are about the auto generated draft itself.


A) Initial draft class has more Star+ players compared to generated draft class


Initial draft class has 39 Star+ players, generated draft classes usually have around 25-30 - so definitely there's a difference. Main difference is the distribution of development though. In the initial class most development guys are in the 1st or 2nd round, in the generated classes they are spread over all rounds and even UDFA.


I would argue the generated classes are even more realistic in that case, but it's just impossible to predict that for the real draft classes. EA did that in the past and handed out development to random 6th round guys - can do that, but it's just a blind shot. For early round guys there's at least mor scouting information available through media.


B) CPU doesn't use or develop drafted players enough


This is probably true, so drafted guys won't get there at the top. Of course this only goes for leagues against CPU, in 32 man franchises that's no issue.


This is not an issue with generated draft classes in my opinion, more with CPU roster management logic.


C) Generated rookies don't develop fast enough


This is true too, but only in parts.


Rookies can definitely develop a lot in their first few seasons. A rookie around 70 OVR with 1-2 breakouts and a great season (e.g. Chase Claypool in real) and some luck with breakout XP can easily gain 10-15 OVR points and ends up at Superstar and 85 OVR in his 2nd season. Absolutely fine in my opinion. Same with drafted development guys without breakout, if they are trained and they play well.


Where the above statement is true is with the high level guys OR the separation between average starters and superstars. It's very rare and almost impossible to get to 90+ or 95+ with a drafted player (unless you increase all XP sliders, but other problems arise then), so the stock roster guys are more valuable until they retire in most cases. The problem I see below that surface is the linear development logic - you just know exactly how a player will develop at Normal/Star/SS/XF, there are almost no surprises and definitely no negative surprises. That means every player will just increase his OVR for at least 5-6 years, no drafted player ever can regress (bust!) and no drafted player can have the top tier breakout to get close to 99. So without much variation in there teams just get better on average at every position, but the real superstars drop out of the league.



To solve that Madden just needs many more scenarios in every direction to reflect the real life changes - with some luck/bad luck, but of course performance related.
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Old 01-04-2021, 09:02 AM   #51
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Re: auto generated draft is terrible

You are absolutely right.

To A: TFG's roster is also revised there, dev traits of 2020 rookies is not like in the EA roster.

B: You are also right there. CPU uses players according to OVR and doesn't take into account if it wants to develop the player. As I said, the problem is amplified by the EA ratings.

If after say three years by the DCs always only rookies come, who are worse than the old players, they are not used by the CPU at all. This continues until enough of the old players retire.
You can see that very well with the HBs, that's why I posted that.
In all tests with TFG, avrg OVR and age curve are similar.
If the age drops, the OVR drops too - new rookies are signed. The more one curve falls or rises, the more the other also falls or rises in the same period. With the EA ratings, the curves almost never match. The O-Line still looks quite good, HBs as said worst, the rest is in between.
Such a development is also not realistic, the age average in the NFL will never develop on many positions as drastically as it does in madden with the EA roster.




XP sliders are not at all suitable for fixing the problem.
They can be used to compensate for differences between different positions. The sliders are important in connection with gameplay sliders/settings. For example, if you increase the CPU's passing game with sliders, then WRs, TEs and QBs will get more XP. The WRs probably the most. You can then adjust that with the XP sliders again.
I' m starting to get a bit of a clue about this, already spent several complete workdays testing xp sliders


The problem with the 99ers players is again the EA roster: there are too many. TFG has only one 99er, that is Aaron Donald. 90+ is much rarer in the TFG roster than in the EA roster. And with the right XP sliders and TFG roster, you can occasionally reach such players even with the autogen classes. At the moment runs the 20th run with TFG, and 3 or 4 99er players were even there after 10 years in the 19 sims
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Old 01-04-2021, 09:24 AM   #52
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Re: auto generated draft is terrible

This is once the EA roster on the left over 12 years and on the right the same with TFG. Blue line QB, green the rest of the offense (green at the bottom are the FBs), red the defense.
I think you can see very well how the XP and the age in the EA roster continuously increase until year 7 and then fall off.
In the league with the TFG roster, the OVR curve develops slightly upwards and then drops again slightly at the end. After 12 years you have a slightly stronger league than at the beginning, whereby the age remains very constant over the 12 years. Only in the first year you see a slump, which comes from the first draft and occurs so far in every test, whether EA or TFG roster.

the lower graphs are mislabeled: this is ALL AGE avrg

EA -------------------- TFG




These are the XP settings used for the TFG run

QB 120
HB 170
TE 220
WR 160
FB 165
T 152
G 160
C 165
EDGE 190
DT 240
MLB 140
OLB 140
CB 140
FS 150
SS 150




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Old 01-05-2021, 11:19 AM   #53
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Re: auto generated draft is terrible

Quote:
Originally Posted by timhere1970
I feel the problem is more the original rosters being to strong than the generated classes being too weak. This leads to the generated players not getting playing time and thus not developing.
This!!! 100% THIS!!!! This is the overall answer!!!!
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Old 01-05-2021, 12:22 PM   #54
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Re: auto generated draft is terrible

Quote:
Originally Posted by Armor and Sword
In the meantime......Chase Claypool never developed with the Steelers in my now Year 5 franchise. He was not overhyped prior to Madden 21 being released but now IRL he may turn out to be an absolute steal for the Steelers as the best WR taken in the 2020 draft.

I was able to sign him to a modest 3 year 10MM deal.

I have been throwing to him a lot. In Week 8 after some great performances I had a breakout scenario. Boom. We heavily involved him and got his dev to a star.

Guess what?

Week 9 I have a shot to get him to a superstar dev now.

Not every rookie turns out great when you play through franchise and then you get sweet storylines the longer you play through franchise.

I think the fictional classes are the best they have ever been on Madden 21.

Love em. And the more fictional players that get into your franchise the more fun it becomes.


Sent from my iPhone using Operation Sports
Well that got twisted, somehow. I don't think the fictional classes are bad, I think the real rookie class is elevated, in comparison. Claypool is a 99 overall in my current franchise that was started with updated rosters from around Thanksgiving. Not sure what the purpose of that anecdotal evidence was.
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Old 01-05-2021, 06:43 PM   #55
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Re: auto generated draft is terrible

Thank you for taking the time to get the data and make the graphs, much appreciated!
So what are some tangible things we can do to help correct this in our ongoing franchises? With 32 team control we can set depth charts to make rookies/young guys start. We can also edit existing players down or rookies draft classes up? Any other ideas? Thanks again.
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Old 01-05-2021, 08:23 PM   #56
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Re: auto generated draft is terrible

Makes me wonder if in the future, we would see rookie XP tied to players above them on the roster. Not only that, but maybe even a override on the depth the chart if that particular CPU team is looking to "replace" a particular player.

For example : Lets say Miami has a older RB that may still be able to play but they want to add someone younger that can eventually become a starter later in the season. What if the XP of that rookie is tied somehow to the RB1 (kinda like a Vet teaching a rookie type thing)

Or maybe if the CPU wants to replace their current old RB, their draft status on that position could have an override where when they draft the new HB, it'll automatically put him at RB1 instead of burying him. IDK.. just spitaballin here.
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