TDawg3782's Madden 20 CFM Progression Tool

[Kotter]

TDawg I think this is such a cool idea. Between your progression formula and Sabo’s gameplay mod I decided to buy 20.

My question, are players drafted in the 6th and 7th rounds of the draft just as likely to be awarded 90’s potential as 1st and 2nd rounders?

I know the system is based on dev traits, but it’s so rare for late round picks to eclipse an 80-85 rating (or to become solid starters in real life). Would it be possible to write into the code a correlation between round drafted and max potential? Not necessarily a hard cap, but simply a range of potentials that a player in x round is more likely to be assigned. That way there would still be outliers on both ends, but the numbers will still pretty much even out in the end in terms of how it shakes out in real life.

Does that make sense?


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[tdawg3782]

Quote: Originally Posted by Nza

So I just did my first progression using v3 in season 3 of a CFM where I had already started with v2. It seems to have worked well, but I noticed in the progression report no one over 4 years pro got any progression (which I guessing is actually 5th year players in Madden, as the value in the spread sheet starts at 0). It's my understanding v3 allows up to 6 year pros to be progressed. Is it just by chance no one in their 6th season got any progression in the 1st run? Also, on that topic, is it less likely a player will get progression in their 6th season or is the progression window size evenly random across 1 to 6 years?

It can happen for sure.

No it is not evenly random. 1 and 6 years is least likely, 2 and 5 years a little more, and 3 and 4 years the most likely. I can't remember my exact percentages but that's how it works.

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[tdawg3782]

Quote: Originally Posted by Kotter

TDawg I think this is such a cool idea. Between your progression formula and Sabo’s gameplay mod I decided to buy 20. My question, are players drafted in the 6th and 7th rounds of the draft just as likely to be awarded 90’s potential as 1st and 2nd rounders? I know the system is based on dev traits, but it’s so rare for late round picks to eclipse an 80-85 rating (or to become solid starters in real life). Would it be possible to write into the code a correlation between round drafted and max potential? Not necessarily a hard cap, but simply a range of potentials that a player in x round is more likely to be assigned. That way there would still be outliers on both ends, but the numbers will still pretty much even out in the end in terms of how it shakes out in real life. Does that make sense? Sent from my iPhone using Operation Sports

Right now the formula does not look at draft Rd. It looks at Dev trait and then runs the percentages for each that are set up based on that trait. It would be possible to do something like that. Could be a feature for the next version.

However I don't really like the idea of putting ranges based on draft Rd. Then if you draft a guy in that Rd you have an idea of what to expect. Takes away some of the guess work. It would have to make sense for me to do something like that.

Just because a guy is drafted in a certain Rd doesn't mean anything really.

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[tdawg3782]

Also I'm am currently working on a scouting tool that will replace the in house system in Madden. It's not going to let you cheat but you will basically have all letter grades available to you for all players. Check out the discord (link in OP) for more information as I'm still in the process of putting it together.

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[Kotter]

Quote: Originally Posted by tdawg3782

Right now the formula does not look at draft Rd. It looks at Dev trait and then runs the percentages for each that are set up based on that trait. It would be possible to do something like that. Could be a feature for the next version. However I don't really like the idea of putting ranges based on draft Rd. Then if you draft a guy in that Rd you have an idea of what to expect. Takes away some of the guess work. It would have to make sense for me to do something like that. Just because a guy is drafted in a certain Rd doesn't mean anything really. Sent from my SM-G950U using Operation Sports mobile app

Here's what I was thinking of in a nutshell (keep in mind I have no numbers to base this off of, just a rough estimate)

1st round draft picks:
93-100 potential - 40%
85-92 - 20%
78-84 - 20%
72-77 - 10%
<71 - 10%

2nd & 3rd rounds:
93-100 - 25%
85-92 - 25%
78-84 - 25%
72-77 - 15%
<71 - 10%

4th & 5th rounds
93-100 - 10%
85-92 - 25%
78-84 - 25%
72-77 - 20%
<71 - 20%

6th & 7th rounds
93-100 - 10%
85-92 - 10%
78-84 - 20%
72-77 - 20%
<71 - 40%

Keeps it realistic in terms of overalls-per-round drafted, but also leaves room for busts and diamonds in the rough.

[Nza]

In my experience, stars and superstars tend to be drafted in the 1st round or early 2nd by the CPU + humans following the scouting system anyway, so if potential is tightly linked to dev trait, I think that already covers 1st and early 2nd rounder being more likely to be great.

After that it's more even, but I'm not sure if that's inconsistent to real life. Are 3rd rounders more likely to "progress" than other rounds? I want to say probably yes, but not by a lot. I guess we have the data right there to compare (current Madden roster OVRs + draft round data).

[tdawg3782]

Quote: Originally Posted by Kotter

Here's what I was thinking of in a nutshell (keep in mind I have no numbers to base this off of, just a rough estimate) 1st round draft picks: 93-100 potential - 40% 85-92 - 20% 78-84 - 20% 72-77 - 10% <71 - 10% 2nd & 3rd rounds: 93-100 - 25% 85-92 - 25% 78-84 - 25% 72-77 - 15% <71 - 10% 4th & 5th rounds 93-100 - 10% 85-92 - 25% 78-84 - 25% 72-77 - 20% <71 - 20% 6th & 7th rounds 93-100 - 10% 85-92 - 10% 78-84 - 20% 72-77 - 20% <71 - 40% Keeps it realistic in terms of overalls-per-round drafted, but also leaves room for busts and diamonds in the rough.

The problem with a potential system based on that is as follows. You completely whiff on a prospect and get a 65 Ovr in the first Rd. But because he is a first Rd pick he gets at the very least a 72 potential? That just doesn't sit right with me. I get what you are saying and I don't completely disagree but it would have to be something ever so slight. Maybe a small boost in chance but nothing drastic like that. You can't base a whole system in that.

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[Kotter]

I completed my first test season using your progression tool.

On week 8 and 16 I was like a kid on Christmas Day! This is so cool to use. In my test season with the Bears I was excited to see Trubisky go up 4 points in Week 8 and then one more in Week 16. Eddie Jackson also went up a couple throughout the year, then there were plenty of 1's scattered throughout. If I were to continue that CFM I'd be giddy everytime Weeks 8 and 16 come around to see if my young players like Montgomery progress to stars, or turn out to be busts. I think it's great that Montgomery didn't progress at all in year 1, but could still bust out huge improvements in years 2-6 (or maybe he ends up a bust).

Another variable I was very pleased with was practice squad players. At the end of the season I had two practice squad players progress. One guy went up 13 points! It's one of those perfect Cinderella stories of going from nothing to star. After the first year he went from a 65 on my practice squad to a 78 and third on my depth chart. I just hope that doesn't happen all that often. The Bears have a fairly young team so I didn't notice many significant regressions - one or two players dropped a couple of points.

I'm really impressed! I'll also be really interested in the draft. It'll be fun to draft a QB every 2 years or so to see if I get the next Brady. It'll be great to see someone progress to their true potential even if they sit on the bench for the first three years.