On one level, I agree with you. I don't see EA buying VC's product and team and making NFL 2K6 AND Madden 2006 as they are now (casual sims aimed at everybody).
Like I said in my original post- one option would be to further differentiate the two products. Example- they'd keep Madden as the "casual" sim that we all know, and use the ESPN engine and make a hard-core sim with management options- but with the VC graphical presentation, etc.
I know that EA's press release mentioned they "See the market for a management-style sim." Really? That makes no sense to me. Maybe on PC, but that's not gonna generate big revenue either. No offense to you "coach-only" types, but I see bigger calls on all the boards for a REALISTIC sim with management options- but still with the ability to control the players during the play.
So alot depends on how EA defines a "management" sim. Perhaps they don't mean a "Management ONLY sim". -That is something we can't know from what little they said.
Again, this is just a theory that stems from the fact that I can't see Sega leaving a half developed NFL 2K6 sim rotting on the vine with the money and development time they've already put into it (Probably 6 months already). A complete "switch-over" to a college sim of a pro game would put them further behind schedule, and competing with another EA product that has HUGE notoriety that has been built in the absence of a college game from Sega.
Plus, Sega is gonna be very leery of releasing a no-named "Professional Football Sim" without a license for stadiums, players, teams, or logos. They may view such a release as suicidal, and they may be more than happy to sell and cut their losses against EA.