Quick update on press/release issue

[CapnKill]

Quote: Originally Posted by LBzrule

I agree with this as well. On a streak and the defense is in man cover 2, you don't give up the inside, you force him outside. That's where your help is gonna be deep. This is also where the jostling and hip riding comes into play. Ideally you want the CB to trail man on the inside hip of the WR on a streak and the Safety is gonna play it over the top.

I think that's not 100% correct... I think with safety help you push inside, with no help you want to use the sideline so you push outside... I think there was an NFL Network video about a 1 week ago where Ty Law and Woodson point out this very thing.

AH here it is, great video for anyone to watch. They discuss D. Revis (schooling Ted Ginn ) and Assaghoa... and they clearly talk about that with no safety help you want to push the WR outside, and with safety help you shade outside and push him towards the safety on the inside:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-networ...The-hot-corner

It would be great if this logic was built into the game, or if we could control it... with shading playmaker controls and so on...

[rhombic21]

The debate about proper technique is interesting, but you guys are glossing over the really important part here. Player ability basically doesn't matter! Look at the formula.

Hypothetical win probabilities:

0 Press CB
99 Release WR

0 + 2 + .99

0/2.99 = 0 % probability that CB wins
2/2.99 = 66.9% probability of neutral
.99/2.99 = 33.1% probability of WR wins

99 Press CB
99 Release WR

.99 + 2 + .99

.99/3.98 = 24.9% probability of CB wins
2/3.98 = 50.3% probability of neutral
.99/3.98 = 24.9% probability of WR wins

Increasing from 0 to 99 Press only increases probability of win by 25% (holding opposition player skill constant) and only reduces probability of loss by 8.2%. So basically, it's going to be a neutral outcome most of the time, regardless of the ratings that are involved. Even if you have the maximum degree of mismatch possible, it will still end up in a neutral outcome 2/3 of the time. The ratings barely matter at all!

All the stuff about steering and technique is great, but none of that has anything to do with whether or not great players will dominate. It would appear that the root of the problem lies in the way they are calculating win probabilities for interactions.

My bet is that at least part of the problem here with post press/jam coverage has to do with a similar kind of equation being used to determine outcomes in man coverage. Thus we got games where on '08 DBs could cover ridiculously well regardless of ratings, and on '09 we got the opposite.

[Outkizast]

Quote: Originally Posted by rhombic21

The debate about proper technique is interesting, but you guys are glossing over the really important part here. Player ability basically doesn't matter! Look at the formula. Hypothetical win probabilities: 0 Press CB 99 Release WR 0 + 2 + .99 0/2.99 = 0 % probability that CB wins 2/2.99 = 66.9% probability of neutral .99/2.99 = 33.1% probability of WR wins 99 Press CB 99 Release WR .99 + 2 + .99 .99/3.98 = 24.9% probability of CB wins 2/3.98 = 50.3% probability of neutral .99/3.98 = 24.9% probability of WR wins Increasing from 0 to 99 Press only increases probability of win by 25% (holding opposition player skill constant) and only reduces probability of loss by 8.2%. So basically, it's going to be a neutral outcome most of the time, regardless of the ratings that are involved. Even if you have the maximum degree of mismatch possible, it will still end up in a neutral outcome 2/3 of the time. The ratings barely matter at all! All the stuff about steering and technique is great, but none of that has anything to do with whether or not great players will dominate. It would appear that the root of the problem lies in the way they are calculating win probabilities for interactions. My bet is that at least part of the problem here has to do with a similar kind of equation being used to determine outcomes in man coverage.

+1.... Ratings MUST matter... maybe they need to re-think the formula used in determining the winner...

[kbigmike2121]

Wow Ian thats some alien looking stuff, keep up the good work man.

[AndyBernard]

Quote: Originally Posted by DSpezzano

Maybe you can have someone look at this http://e3.gamespot.com/video/6211657/ 6:10 mark #52 Packers I just can't believe no one else thinks this looks really bad.

haven't been around alot, but why do the cutscenes trigger so early?

[LBzrule]

Quote: Originally Posted by TyghtWork

LB where do speed come in play? It almost sound like if my ovr is better then your ill win, even if im alot slower. At what point do a fast (avg)wr, run away from a ok speed (above avg)cb? Talking about man to man, not zone.

On those two plays speed should not have been an issue actually. On the first play I hate how he just pressed him and then did not position his body to run with him as the WR released. Ginn got a great degree of separation, almost as if Asamougha does not know how to play the position. On the second play Ginn released inside on what looks like a slant and Asamougha is just standing there letting him catch it

[shttymcgee]

LBZ,
I gotta say, I don't know anyone who teaches inside leverage by the corners in 2 man.

Seen it taught both ways when in man free, but 2 man is almost always outside trail position on vertical routes by the corner. The safeties normally play primary force vs run, the should stay put on the snap and help late vs the pass/playaction. You want those corners to keep outside leverage to help stop against the out/3 verticals. Most teams play this with sub personnel and in obvious throwing downs/distances.

[LBzrule]

Quote: Originally Posted by CapnKill

I think that's not 100% correct... I think with safety help you push inside, with no help you want to use the sideline so you push outside... I think there was an NFL Network video about a 1 week ago where Ty Law and Woodson point out this very thing. AH here it is, great video for anyone to watch. They discuss D. Revis (schooling Ted Ginn ) and Assaghoa... and they clearly talk about that with no safety help you want to push the WR outside, and with safety help you shade outside and push him towards the safety on the inside: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-networ...The-hot-corner It would be great if this logic was built into the game, or if we could control it... with shading playmaker controls and so on...

Yeah, it's not 100%, that's why I corrected myself. It really depends on how someone wants to coach it. Coverages are flexible. I don't necessarily agree with the DB automatically pushing the WR inside based on route. I'm more of a field position coach that will have my corners push inside or outside depending on where they are located on the field and what coverage we are in. If I have a corner on the boundary, and I am in cover 1 I ask him to give up the outside, but don't you let anything come inside. The field corner plays the outside because the Safety is in better position to help him on the field. But I'd call a lot of swapping my corners. I want my best and biggest man coverage guy on the boundary to help defend against the fade.

Also the scenario I presented in cover 0 matches what reavis and Asamougha said. Cover 2 however, is much more flexible in what the coach wants to do with it IMO.