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JaymeeAwesome · 11-17-2009, 02:08 PM

I didn't do well in statistics class, what is the mean?

rocknroll1968 · 11-17-2009, 02:31 PM

If you really want any sort of reliable accuracy measurement, you need to do multiple runs of each week. You'll see it go both ways, where one team will win in one sim, and go the other way the next. Sometimes in blowout fashion as well.

Accuracy measurements could also be taken by considering point difference in the real game (between the two real teams) compared to the point difference in the sim game (between the two fake teams).

Without multiple (10 at the very least) runs, to reduce the influence of "fluke" results, you don't have reliable numbers.

alifeincomplete · 11-17-2009, 04:15 PM

jaymee - the mean is the average. I am terrible in math, but I have Excel to do that work for me, haha.

rocknroll - You've raised a point that I've been considering for the past few weeks. When Madden started hitting the skids on accuracy, I began to think that maybe a few sim runs would be necessary to take a more accurate measure. I know that the game obsesses over some teams (the Steelers and the Patriots) and usually has them win regardless of who they face. I was planning to do ten simulated runs for each of the postseason games, particularly the Super Bowl, to 'ensure' a confident prediction. The sims that I run are really only limited by my free time available.

PGaither84 · 11-17-2009, 11:25 PM

I never do sports betting. Does anyone offer even line betting, or do games always have a pay out ratio? I would say that if you could make 1 to 1 bets and bet the same dollar amount on each game every week with the "pick 'em" you would make money. I haven't sen a week where it broke even or lost. With a record of 83-46, if you bet $5 on each game [there are about 12 or 13 games each week] that would be betting only 60-65 dollars a week. Each loss takes away a win so you end up with a positive 37 games. If you could find a place willing to make even bets, you would make good money. Does any bookie or web site or sports betting place take even bets like this? Interesting to find out.

no, i don't have a gambling problem

I just think it would be fun to try.

MatrixTN · 11-18-2009, 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alifeincomplete


	Madden: Redskins 27, Broncos 16 Reality: Redskins 27, Broncos 17 Correct!

Wow, best one there. Missed it by 1 point.

alifeincomplete · 11-19-2009, 07:56 PM

Okay, so a bit of a new approach to these picks this time around... that is, no predicted score as, let's face it, Madden was almost always way off with the exception of one or two games per week being close. These games got a ten-fold simulation run, meaning I simulated the week ten times (at the least; some series ended in ties after ten so additional rounds were necessary to gain confidence in the predictions... it worked out to be about a best-of-15 for some games) and most games received eleven simulations. The numbers in parenthesis are the results of the predictions series. Hopefully, consistency in victories in the game will translate into accurate predictions.

Week 11
Season results: 95-49
Week results: 9-7

Madden: CAROLINA over MIAMI (8-3)
Reality: DOLPHINS over PANTHERS
Incorrect!

Madden: PITTSBURGH over KANSAS CITY (10-1)
Reality: CHIEFS over STEELERS (OT)
Incorrect!

Madden: BALTIMORE over INDIANAPOLIS (9-2)
Reality: COLTS over RAVENS
Incorrect!

Madden: DETROIT over CLEVELAND (8-5)
Reality: LIONS over BROWNS
Correct!

Madden: NEW ORLEANS over TAMPA BAY (10-1)
Reality: SAINTS over BUCCANEERS
Correct!

Madden: GREEN BAY over SAN FRANCISCO (8-5)
Reality: PACKERS over 49ERS
Correct!

Madden: MINNESOTA over SEATTLE (8-4)
Reality: MINNESOTA over SEATTLE
Correct!

Madden: DALLAS over WASHINGTON (8-7)
Reality: COWBOYS over REDSKINS
Correct!

Madden: ATLANTA over NEW YORK GIANTS (8-7)
Reality: GIANTS over FALCONS (OT)
Incorrect!

Madden: JACKSONVILLE over BUFFALO (10-1)
Reality: JAGUARS over BILLS
Correct!

Madden: ARIZONA over ST LOUIS (9-2)
Reality: CARDINALS over RAMS
Correct!

Madden: CINCINNATI over OAKLAND (8-5)
Reality: RAIDERS over BENGALS
Incorrect!

Madden: NEW ENGLAND over NEW YORK JETS (9-2)
Reality: PATRIOTS over JETS
Correct!

Madden: SAN DIEGO over DENVER (9-2)
Reality: CHARGERS over BRONCOS
Correct!

Madden: CHICAGO over PHILADELPHIA (8-7)
Reality: PHILADELPHIA over CHICAGO
Incorrect!

Madden: HOUSTON over TENNESSEE (10-1)
Reality: TENNESSEE over HOUSTON
Incorrect!

alifeincomplete · 11-19-2009, 07:58 PM

PGaither84 - a few years back, I was involved in a low-key circle with some people I know that played out just like that. It was five bucks down for every pick'em, win or lose, per week. That worked out to be about $65 per week that you were laying on the line. In this economy, it's too much money for me to throw down these days, but it was a high-risk, high-reward system we had going. This, however, is just for fun. ^_^

alifeincomplete · 11-22-2009, 09:35 PM

Stupid last-second upsets screwed up Madden's predictions this week and sunk our numbers.

11-17-2009, 02:08 PM	#41
JaymeeAwesome Dynasty Guru OVR: 16 Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Woburn, MA Posts: 4,163 Blog Entries: 3	Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus) I didn't do well in statistics class, what is the mean? __________________ - Madden 15 Sliders: Realistic Game Stat Sliders for Madden 15 Madden 15 Dynasty: The NFL Reborn...

11-17-2009, 02:31 PM	#42
rocknroll1968 Banned OVR: 4 Join Date: Aug 2009	Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus) If you really want any sort of reliable accuracy measurement, you need to do multiple runs of each week. You'll see it go both ways, where one team will win in one sim, and go the other way the next. Sometimes in blowout fashion as well. Accuracy measurements could also be taken by considering point difference in the real game (between the two real teams) compared to the point difference in the sim game (between the two fake teams). Without multiple (10 at the very least) runs, to reduce the influence of "fluke" results, you don't have reliable numbers.

11-17-2009, 04:15 PM	#43
alifeincomplete I bent my Wookiee! OVR: 11 Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,263 Blog Entries: 20	Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus) jaymee - the mean is the average. I am terrible in math, but I have Excel to do that work for me, haha. rocknroll - You've raised a point that I've been considering for the past few weeks. When Madden started hitting the skids on accuracy, I began to think that maybe a few sim runs would be necessary to take a more accurate measure. I know that the game obsesses over some teams (the Steelers and the Patriots) and usually has them win regardless of who they face. I was planning to do ten simulated runs for each of the postseason games, particularly the Super Bowl, to 'ensure' a confident prediction. The sims that I run are really only limited by my free time available.

11-17-2009, 11:25 PM	#44
PGaither84 MVP OVR: 49 Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Lima, Peru Blog Entries: 15	Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus) I never do sports betting. Does anyone offer even line betting, or do games always have a pay out ratio? I would say that if you could make 1 to 1 bets and bet the same dollar amount on each game every week with the "pick 'em" you would make money. I haven't sen a week where it broke even or lost. With a record of 83-46, if you bet $5 on each game [there are about 12 or 13 games each week] that would be betting only 60-65 dollars a week. Each loss takes away a win so you end up with a positive 37 games. If you could find a place willing to make even bets, you would make good money. Does any bookie or web site or sports betting place take even bets like this? Interesting to find out. no, i don't have a gambling problem I just think it would be fun to try. __________________ My Madden Blog Last edited by PGaither84; 11-18-2009 at 09:31 PM.

11-19-2009, 07:56 PM	#46
alifeincomplete I bent my Wookiee! OVR: 11 Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,263 Blog Entries: 20	Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus) Okay, so a bit of a new approach to these picks this time around... that is, no predicted score as, let's face it, Madden was almost always way off with the exception of one or two games per week being close. These games got a ten-fold simulation run, meaning I simulated the week ten times (at the least; some series ended in ties after ten so additional rounds were necessary to gain confidence in the predictions... it worked out to be about a best-of-15 for some games) and most games received eleven simulations. The numbers in parenthesis are the results of the predictions series. Hopefully, consistency in victories in the game will translate into accurate predictions. Week 11 Season results: 95-49 Week results: 9-7 Madden: CAROLINA over MIAMI (8-3) Reality: DOLPHINS over PANTHERS Incorrect! Madden: PITTSBURGH over KANSAS CITY (10-1) Reality: CHIEFS over STEELERS (OT) Incorrect! Madden: BALTIMORE over INDIANAPOLIS (9-2) Reality: COLTS over RAVENS Incorrect! Madden: DETROIT over CLEVELAND (8-5) Reality: LIONS over BROWNS Correct! Madden: NEW ORLEANS over TAMPA BAY (10-1) Reality: SAINTS over BUCCANEERS Correct! Madden: GREEN BAY over SAN FRANCISCO (8-5) Reality: PACKERS over 49ERS Correct! Madden: MINNESOTA over SEATTLE (8-4) Reality: MINNESOTA over SEATTLE Correct! Madden: DALLAS over WASHINGTON (8-7) Reality: COWBOYS over REDSKINS Correct! Madden: ATLANTA over NEW YORK GIANTS (8-7) Reality: GIANTS over FALCONS (OT) Incorrect! Madden: JACKSONVILLE over BUFFALO (10-1) Reality: JAGUARS over BILLS Correct! Madden: ARIZONA over ST LOUIS (9-2) Reality: CARDINALS over RAMS Correct! Madden: CINCINNATI over OAKLAND (8-5) Reality: RAIDERS over BENGALS Incorrect! Madden: NEW ENGLAND over NEW YORK JETS (9-2) Reality: PATRIOTS over JETS Correct! Madden: SAN DIEGO over DENVER (9-2) Reality: CHARGERS over BRONCOS Correct! Madden: CHICAGO over PHILADELPHIA (8-7) Reality: PHILADELPHIA over CHICAGO Incorrect! Madden: HOUSTON over TENNESSEE (10-1) Reality: TENNESSEE over HOUSTON Incorrect! Last edited by alifeincomplete; 11-23-2009 at 11:47 PM.

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11-19-2009, 07:58 PM	#47
alifeincomplete I bent my Wookiee! OVR: 11 Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,263 Blog Entries: 20	Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus) PGaither84 - a few years back, I was involved in a low-key circle with some people I know that played out just like that. It was five bucks down for every pick'em, win or lose, per week. That worked out to be about $65 per week that you were laying on the line. In this economy, it's too much money for me to throw down these days, but it was a high-risk, high-reward system we had going. This, however, is just for fun. ^_^

11-22-2009, 09:35 PM	#48
alifeincomplete I bent my Wookiee! OVR: 11 Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,263 Blog Entries: 20	Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus) Stupid last-second upsets screwed up Madden's predictions this week and sunk our numbers. __________________ The Last of Us is the Citizen Kane of video-games. It is better than every game that has ever come before it, and is the new benchmark for all games to follow. It is nothing short of a work of art.

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