When I get it to work in the open field, I watch the replay to try to see what my timing was. The last time I got it work, the defender was starting to go into his tackling animation.
When the CPU does this stuff to me, that's also when they tend to pull it off. I hit square, CPU "hits" circle. Gotta love input reading.
I think position matters, too. On that spin success above, I was heading upfield on the inside of the defender and the spin took the HB outside and that caused the DB to stumble.
Juking is what's really different for me than M12. Jukes were how I made "cuts" in M12, both into and through holes. This year, it seems really different. Maybe I need I need a One-Cut type back. I've read they get a different type of juke.