Don't Expect a Change in the NFL License Status Quo

[Crimsontide27]

Quote: Originally Posted by DaSmerg

I agree with Matthew's general conclusion that we'll keep on seeing EAS/Tiburon's Madden product as the virtual NFL flag bearer but I don't agree with his premise of 'why'. If you look at the NFL product licensing business model, its stuck in a exclusive contract business model, with EA basically along for the ride and reaping the benefits. There's another question about who would be able to pony up the mega-bucks that an NFL and NFLPA licensing deal would require AND develop a competitive/compelling product. I'd agree with some other posters that the competition and competitive pressure will come from the NCAA games with EA's court recorded mandate to no longer do exclusive deals in this area.

It all depends on how much EA is willing to pay for the exclusive contract. There is no way they can agree to another $300m deal, and I dont know of any other company other than one that would put up that amount and they have yet to release a football title.

I dont think it would be a good choice for any other company to pony up that amount of cash for a title with very little market recognition, and as such, I dont see it happening. EA certainly didnt get the sales it was expecting from this agreement, nor the profits that were forecasted.

They are in financial trouble at the moment, so they dont have much cash to really toss around at this point. They may keep the agreement, but it will be for much less.

[Big FN Deal]

Quote: Originally Posted by cuttingteeth

Ah, I see...you can't read between the lines of what I'm trying to convey. Have you ever used Teambuilder for the NCAA football games? It allows you to use any picture logo (so long as you resize it accordingly - easy to do) and upload it, and it becomes your helmet and/or jersey/pants logo and even your field/stadium logo. It works. I've created the Houston Oilers among many other NFL teams before. The only one I can't create accurately is how the Bengals are done, but I'm sure that's a short tweaking of code to allow for. I've created XFL, CFL, etc. teams. You can then put whatever names anywhere you want, too - your players size, weight, skin color, attributes, etc. exactly as you want...create a stadium close to exact or use established ones (when allowed). It's soooo close to the real thing. The only other thing you are really making me understand is that you think the majority of folks are too lazy to do any of the work. I'll go with that...but it still wouldn't ruin the game selling any because all of you lazy mofo's would do the same thing you do now by downloading and uploading the changed files someone like me already did for you. Everything would cross-reference so well that it would still be a game the majority would purchase. If you wanted to customize it, it's for you. If you just want to DL what everyone else customized and/or tweak it a little when you choose, you could do that, too. With all the combined (even little) things that you HAVE to do to Madden as is already, I don't see it being any different...even for the laziest, casual gamer that absolutely loved Madden 13.

I am with you sir and I think sometimes people can get stuck in a status quo group think and only see things that way. For instance this thread, there are people that seem to think this write up somehow confirms an extension of the exclusive, which it doesn't, it's just the writer's opinion. Same thing with opinions about what casuals will or will not buy based on what past non-licensed football game sales were. APF and BB each had issues that prevented me from getting either one but had they been fully fleshed out football games, minus a NFL/NFLPA license, with community modding capability/sharing, I would've purchased both. Granted I am not a casual football gamer but I think people underestimate the power of word of mouth through social networking and media these days.

It's all about trends with casuals and if Take Two were to create a fully customizable complete non-licensed football game, that the hardcore football modding community could "fill in the NFL blanks" for, word of mouth and popularity would quickly spread through YouTube, Facebook, Twitchtv, etc. That's another reason I feel that the exclusive is ending because, imo, the prospect of some company creating a fully customizable football game is likely even greater on the new consoles, considering development is supposed to be better.

It's funny how people can say "it won't happen non-licensed football games don't sell" but that didn't stop APF from trying or BB after that, so another company or either of these, trying it again on the new consoles, IF the exclusive is renewed, is feasible.

[SageInfinite]

I could see a customizable football game being embraced on PC somewhat, but console no way. I just can't see it happening.

[roadman]

Quote: Originally Posted by Big FN Deal

It's funny how people can say "it won't happen non-licensed football games don't sell" but that didn't stop APF from trying or BB after that, so another company or either of these, trying it again on the new consoles, IF the exclusive is renewed, is feasible.

I will agree with Big, that the potential is feasible, but probably not profitable. All other companies need to do is look at the profits of BB and APF going up vs Madden and they will probably turn the other cheek.

I don't know many companies out there that want to lose money or stay even.

Let's just say I need to be proven that a non-licensed game will make money before I jump on that bandwagon.

Two tried, but didn't succeed from a profit standpoint.

[Big FN Deal]

Quote: Originally Posted by SageInfinite

I could see a customizable football game being embraced on PC somewhat, but console no way. I just can't see it happening.

That's just it though, the new consoles are being touted to be far more like developing for a PC game than for this gen consoles. Likely the old dogmas for console gaming this gen won't apply for the next. I think this will have a big impact on what is going down with the exclusive because it just seems like an obsolete notion going into this new era of gaming.

By opening up the capability of the new consoles, it's also likely opening up the capability of the modding community and given the prospect of non-licensed football games becoming viable, I think with no company willing to pay a premium for a NFL exclusive license, the NFL is quick to offer multiple open licenses again, maybe this time at an upfront cost though.

[Big FN Deal]

Quote: Originally Posted by roadman

I will agree with Big, that the potential is feasible, but probably not profitable. All other companies need to do is look at the profits of BB and APF going up vs Madden and they will probably turn the other cheek. I don't know many companies out there that want to lose money or stay even. Let's just say I need to be proven that a non-licensed game will make money before I jump on that bandwagon. Two tried, but didn't succeed from a profit standpoint.

I can dig this Road but in most cases businesses don't determine what they think can be accomplished, just off what happened to other businesses. If a gaming company thinks they can turn a profit with a non-licensed football game, that's what they will try, regardless of other companies past efforts. Maybe they try to glean something from the past actions of other companies but for the most part, business is about trying to do something better or offering something different than others.

So with the new consoles that premise could be motivation for even more companies to attempt non-licensed football games, if necessary due to a NFL exclusive, than this gen.

[SageInfinite]

Quote: Originally Posted by Big FN Deal

That's just it though, the new consoles are being touted to be far more like developing for a PC game than for this gen consoles. Likely the old dogmas for console gaming this gen won't apply for the next. I think this will have a big impact on what is going down with the exclusive because it just seems like an obsolete notion going into this new era of gaming. By opening up the capability of the new consoles, it's also likely opening up the capability of the modding community and given the prospect of non-licensed football games becoming viable, I think with no company willing to pay a premium for a NFL exclusive license, the NFL is quick to offer multiple open licenses again, maybe this time at an upfront cost though.

I'm usually rocking with you BIG and I feel your optimism, but I just cant see a company in todays climate taking a chance on an unlicensed football game. 2k took a chance because they thought the fan base and the legends factor would be enough to carry the game. Natural motion took a chance because they had some cool new tech that might spark some interest in generate sales. Neither were really successful enough to justify sequels. Now if companies received profits from used game sales maybe these game might have generated some more money, but that didn't and isn't happening.

I only mention PC because there hasn't been a real PC football game in a long time, so people might gravitate toward it if it came out looking good, plus it's a lot easier to mod. I still don't see the PS4 or any other consoles being too mod friendly. Some companies make it easier to mod and embrace it, some don't.

This generation of gamers is just fine with Madden, and honestly it would have to take something truly unbelievable to even garner the attention of the public, and even then it would probably be a huge undertaking with something that isn't a guarantee. I just can't see companies risking it. I would love to have another option to play, but I don't see companies justifying the cost and effort it would take to take on the juggernaut known as Madden.

[roadman]

Quote: Originally Posted by Big FN Deal

I can dig this Road but in most cases businesses don't determine what they think can be accomplished, just off what happened to other businesses. If a gaming company thinks they can turn a profit with a non-licensed football game, that's what they will try, regardless of other companies past efforts. Maybe they try to glean something from the past actions of other companies but for the most part, business is about trying to do something better or offering something different than others. So with the new consoles that premise could be motivation for even more companies to attempt non-licensed football games, if necessary due to a NFL exclusive, than this gen.

I can understand how and why you feel that way, and I don't know about non-profit business, but profit orientated businesses do a lot of market research before they set sail off to the promised land. You can't just ignore past companies experiences in the same field, it's there in black and white.

Companies can't just think they will turn a profit, they must know without a showdow of a doubt they will be profitable or else why jump in?

I must see it before I believe it.

My business sense tells me it would be difficult to pull off, maybe not impossible, but difficult.