Can EA afford to keep the NFL?

[dghustla]

Quote: Originally Posted by GiantBlue76

Fair point my friend, but I believe you are underestimating the following Madden has. Gamers like me in their late 30s and up have a very different view point than then newer generation of gamers. Most of the younger guys have never experienced another football game. EA is catering to those fans, and they know that being the only game they can live without the older generation of disgruntled fans. Not to mention, there is a large enough fanbase who is only interested in screaming at their buddies as they throw 9 TDs in a quarter and rush for 500 yards in a game with their favorite player. This "casual" and newer fan base is the target demographic that EA has continued to go after. That being said, it can be argued that the reason why EA has seen such a steep decline in Madden sales over the years since their exclusive is due to the fact that the quality of the game has suffered so severely that many gamers have moved on to games like FIFA, The Show and NBA 2k. I know a lot of the guys who I know that are my age that were DIE HARD Madden guys their whole lives have stopped playing it because - in their words - "It sucks now". These are guys who never even played 2k too, so it's not like they aren't big Madden guys. The bottom line is that EA and Tiburon are at a crossroads right now. It is a pivotal time in that they need to decide which way they are going to go with Madden. Realism will sell to everyone, because the die hard "freestyle" guys are so addicted to Madden they will buy it no matter what state the game is in. The hardcore SIM community (which has grown astronomically over the years) will NOT be as interested in arcade football, especially since they've shown that other past football games have been far superior to current versions of Madden on the market today. Regardless, it's up to the NFL what they want to do. I would not think that they would want to give up the marketing power that EA Sports gives them by putting the NFL brand into millions of homes. However, if EA coughs up another massive premium for a license, that would be surprising and probably a little stupid on their part. No other company is jumping in. I'm fully expecting a long term deal to be done just before the current deal expires. There is no longer any fear by EA of any outside competition, there is no rush to get this done.

Excellent knowledge my only counter is this, would you agree that 98% of ppl who purchase Madden are already NFL fans and are overly exposed to the NFL brand prior to purchase? I personally believe that EA intends to make the best game they can. Right now they are playing for pride and I think that they would prefer to let the exclusive license go. But they are scared to do so until they know that the product they are rolling out is better or on par with what the challengers can bring. But just imagine if tomorrow at 12-noon est. on the front page of OS you saw a story that said 2k Sports has acquired the license to make an NFL football game rumored launch date was august 2015 the thread would be 100 pages by 1 o clock. Fans choose 2k over Live, the fans choose the show over their baseball iteration. EA knows that they must be realism into Gen 4.

getting back on topic we can all agree ..That EA is rolling in loot and that forecast is all green ahead lol.

[RandyBass]

Quote: Originally Posted by GiantBlue76

No other company is jumping in.

TTWO is getting ready to pad their coffers with what could be one of the biggest video game releases in history in GTAV, and you don't know what their plans are after that. That being said, wrestling the license away from EA is going to take one heck of a fight, and I just don't see them losing it any time soon.

[GiantBlue76]

Quote: Originally Posted by dghustla

Excellent knowledge my only counter is this, would you agree that 98% of ppl who purchase Madden are already NFL fans and are overly exposed to the NFL brand prior to purchase? I personally believe that EA intends to make the best game they can. Right now they are playing for pride and I think that they would prefer to let the exclusive license go. But they are scared to do so until they know that the product they are rolling out is better or on par with what the challengers can bring. But just imagine if tomorrow at 12-noon est. on the front page of OS you saw a story that said 2k Sports has acquired the license to make an NFL football game rumored launch date was august 2015 the thread would be 100 pages by 1 o clock. Fans choose 2k over Live, the fans choose the show over their baseball iteration. EA knows that they must be realism into Gen 4. getting back on topic we can all agree ..That EA is rolling in loot and that forecast is all green ahead lol.

Great discussion here DG!

To your bolded point, I don't believe EA is at all "scared". The reason being, there is no need for an exclusive license anymore. Any license EA gets from the NFL will be exclusive by default. Years prior, EA paid a massive premium simply to lock everyone else out. They no longer have to do that. They will just be paying for "a license" as opposed to an "exclusive license". EA knows this, and this is the reason why nothing has been announced yet.

[ryan36]

Well, if it's true that next-gen will be cheaper/easier to develop for , other studios may want in the ring.

I do not know if this is actually the case.

[ggunnerr]

Quote: Originally Posted by GiantBlue76

Great discussion here DG! To your bolded point, I don't believe EA is at all "scared". The reason being, there is no need for an exclusive license anymore. Any license EA gets from the NFL will be exclusive by default. Years prior, EA paid a massive premium simply to lock everyone else out. They no longer have to do that. They will just be paying for "a license" as opposed to an "exclusive license". EA knows this, and this is the reason why nothing has been announced yet.

I agree that EA has all the leverage against the NFL right now, and they are playing hardball, hence no announcement. I feel the NFL is in more trouble at the moment financially than EA. DTV looking to get out of Sunday ticket deal, too expensive, EA playing hardball, too expensive, and I gotta believe at some point the TV deals will cost more than the advertising rev. generated and those numbers will recede. Not to mention concussion lawsuit ramifications to the bottom line, and then some when it comes to re-supplying talent pool. Alot of Moms I work with won't let early teen sons play Fball. If we are stuck watching Curtis Painters instead of P. Manning's the product goes down quick.

The reason for the above breakdown is to show that the NFL will be really greedy, and maybe willing to sit out a year in the Vgame world and take a better deal from 2K, which has the coin to go against EA. They just don't have ability to put a product out for a while, which gives EA the leverage now.

[GiantBlue76]

Quote: Originally Posted by ryan36

Well, if it's true that next-gen will be cheaper/easier to develop for , other studios may want in the ring. I do not know if this is actually the case.

Believe me, I want you to be right. I'm just not optimistic that this is the case.

[ghettogeeksta]

Yes EA can afford it, the question is are they willing to pay. The execs have to decide if it's worth the cost and if it's in the best interest on the company. Because I got a feeling the NFLPA wants way more money this time around.

[FreAk47]

I feel like at this point EA could just let the license go and more or less still have a monopoly over football gaming. It would likely be years, if ever, until a competitor could put a strong enough showing together to even compete. RIP football gaming