Reading slider discussions, I often see a lot of myths constantly perpetuated by people who feel that certain outcomes in their games are not realistic. In this thread, I will examine three common myths which I hope will be kept in mind when appraising the value of slider sets. If there is enough interest, I will make this a series and examine other myths.
Myth #1
It's unrealistic for an RB to get stuffed ten times then break off a 70 yard run
This myth derives from a misinterpretation of what a 4.3 ypc average for a RB in the NFL means.
What to keep in mind is that yards per carry (as in a mean) does not correspond to median yardage.
Check it out:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=1499
What does this mean? What circumstances could lead to someone having a 5.0 YPC but only a median rush of 3 yards?
For example this series of runs:
-2, 0, 3, 4, 20
would produce a 5.0 ypc average but a median run of only 3 yards.
This also means that the difference between an Adrian Peterson and a Lendale White is what we already know from watching the games... AP breaks off big runs and Lendale White doesn't. It's not that AP is necessarily more consistent in turning out 4.5-5.0 yard gains... He could be less consistent than White but make up for it by breaking off a few long runs.
To reiterate, whether a pro bowler or a bench warmer, the median carry is around the same and fairly low at ~3.0. Big runs are what sets apart the AP's from the Lendale White's.
Consider this as well:
It's amazing to think that Chris Johnson had 693 yards on a mere 14 carries but that's what his long runs over the course of the season amounted to! Notice how if you take away those long runs, his ridiculous 5.6 ypc average plummets to a mere 3.7 ypc average.
So on 352 carries (96% of his total carries) he only averaged 3.7 yards! It was on a mere 14 carries (average of 49.5 ypc) that he bumped his average all the way up to 5.6 ypc!
I can't stress this enough. 96% of Chris Johnson's carries resulted in an average of 3.7 ypc which is Lendale White territory and would be considered very pedestrian! He skyrocketed to 5.6 ypc off only 4% of his total carries.
I decided to check the play-by-play for an NFL game from last week. Granted, one data point does not a trend make but it gives you an idea of how a typical RB's day goes in the NFL.
I decided to pick a 100+ yard rusher from Week 16 and went with Chicago's Matt Forte, who is neither a powerback nor a skat back but a guy in between. Forte had some surprising room against one of the league's better run D's, the Jets.
He finished with 19 carries for 113 yards. Never dare think that that 5.9 yards per carry average means he was consistently picking up 6 yard gains!
Here are the yardage from every carry he had during that game:
4, 5, 0, 3, 2, 8, 22, 2, 3, 1, 6, 12, 32, 0, 2, 8, 0, 1, 2
Even though he averaged a very high 5.9 average, 11 of his 19 carries went for 3 yards or less! And was stuffed for no gain 3 times!
In order by distance
0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 8, 12, 22, 32
Median carry was 3 yards.
My above post is confirmed in the case of Matt Forte last week. Though he averaged 5.9 ypc, his median carry was only 3 yards which is typical for every RB to have ever played professional football.
Let's go with another 100 yard rusher from Week 16 and see how he plays out. Adrian Peterson has 22 carries for 118 yards. That's a 5.4 ypc, so again, fairly high. What were the carries of arguably the best back in football?
5, 2, 4, -1, 3, 15, 23, 1, -1 (overturned by penalty so not counted), 1, 18, 9, 3, 7, -4, -1, 27, 1, 1, 2, 2, 0, 2.
Even with the best back in football, of his 22 carries, 14 went for 3 yards of less. 63% of the time AP got the ball, he had less than 3 yards yet still averaged 5.4 ypc!
Not only that, but he was downright stuffed for no gain or NEGATIVE yards 4 times and would've been 5 if not for a penalty on the Eagles.
Again, sorted by distance:
-4, -1, -1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 15, 18, 23, 27
AP, though he averaged 5.4 ypc, had a median carry of only 2 yards!
Conclusion
Mean is not the same thing as median. The majority of RB carries are well below their yards per carry averages; that means realism demands RB's in Madden to be held to 0-3 yards on the majority of their carries but occasionally break off big runs
Myth #1
It's unrealistic for an RB to get stuffed ten times then break off a 70 yard run
This myth derives from a misinterpretation of what a 4.3 ypc average for a RB in the NFL means.
What to keep in mind is that yards per carry (as in a mean) does not correspond to median yardage.
Check it out:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=1499
In modern times, most RBs have a median carry length of three yards. I suspect that's been the case for the majority of RBs for a long time. LenDale White and his 3.9 YPC last season? Median rush of 3 yards. Adrian Peterson and his 4.8 YPC? Median rush of 3 yards.
For example this series of runs:
-2, 0, 3, 4, 20
would produce a 5.0 ypc average but a median run of only 3 yards.
This also means that the difference between an Adrian Peterson and a Lendale White is what we already know from watching the games... AP breaks off big runs and Lendale White doesn't. It's not that AP is necessarily more consistent in turning out 4.5-5.0 yard gains... He could be less consistent than White but make up for it by breaking off a few long runs.
To reiterate, whether a pro bowler or a bench warmer, the median carry is around the same and fairly low at ~3.0. Big runs are what sets apart the AP's from the Lendale White's.
Consider this as well:
When talking about big gains, it's hard to ignore Chris Johnson, the league's ultimate breakaway back. Johnson had runs of 91, 89, and 85 yards last year, plus a 57-yarder, a 52-yarder, and a smattering of 30+ and 40+ yarders. He totaled 693 yards on his 14 carries of over 30 yards. To put that in perspective, he would have finished 15th in the AFC in rushing based solely on those 14 carries, ahead of guys like Ronnie Brown and Willis McGahee.
Take away Johnson's top 14 runs, and his 352-1313-3.7 statline looks much more mortal, though still quite good. Even without his highlight-reel runs, Johnson can be a productive 1,000-yard back, which is good news to those of us who will be taking him first or second in a fantasy draft. Of course, Johnson's long runs won't go away this year, but it's unlikely that he'll have three 80+ yarders, either. Cut his big-play yardage in half, and you still have a tremendous player.
Take away Johnson's top 14 runs, and his 352-1313-3.7 statline looks much more mortal, though still quite good. Even without his highlight-reel runs, Johnson can be a productive 1,000-yard back, which is good news to those of us who will be taking him first or second in a fantasy draft. Of course, Johnson's long runs won't go away this year, but it's unlikely that he'll have three 80+ yarders, either. Cut his big-play yardage in half, and you still have a tremendous player.
So on 352 carries (96% of his total carries) he only averaged 3.7 yards! It was on a mere 14 carries (average of 49.5 ypc) that he bumped his average all the way up to 5.6 ypc!
I can't stress this enough. 96% of Chris Johnson's carries resulted in an average of 3.7 ypc which is Lendale White territory and would be considered very pedestrian! He skyrocketed to 5.6 ypc off only 4% of his total carries.
I decided to check the play-by-play for an NFL game from last week. Granted, one data point does not a trend make but it gives you an idea of how a typical RB's day goes in the NFL.
I decided to pick a 100+ yard rusher from Week 16 and went with Chicago's Matt Forte, who is neither a powerback nor a skat back but a guy in between. Forte had some surprising room against one of the league's better run D's, the Jets.
He finished with 19 carries for 113 yards. Never dare think that that 5.9 yards per carry average means he was consistently picking up 6 yard gains!
Here are the yardage from every carry he had during that game:
4, 5, 0, 3, 2, 8, 22, 2, 3, 1, 6, 12, 32, 0, 2, 8, 0, 1, 2
Even though he averaged a very high 5.9 average, 11 of his 19 carries went for 3 yards or less! And was stuffed for no gain 3 times!
In order by distance
0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 8, 12, 22, 32
Median carry was 3 yards.
My above post is confirmed in the case of Matt Forte last week. Though he averaged 5.9 ypc, his median carry was only 3 yards which is typical for every RB to have ever played professional football.
Let's go with another 100 yard rusher from Week 16 and see how he plays out. Adrian Peterson has 22 carries for 118 yards. That's a 5.4 ypc, so again, fairly high. What were the carries of arguably the best back in football?
5, 2, 4, -1, 3, 15, 23, 1, -1 (overturned by penalty so not counted), 1, 18, 9, 3, 7, -4, -1, 27, 1, 1, 2, 2, 0, 2.
Even with the best back in football, of his 22 carries, 14 went for 3 yards of less. 63% of the time AP got the ball, he had less than 3 yards yet still averaged 5.4 ypc!
Not only that, but he was downright stuffed for no gain or NEGATIVE yards 4 times and would've been 5 if not for a penalty on the Eagles.
Again, sorted by distance:
-4, -1, -1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 15, 18, 23, 27
AP, though he averaged 5.4 ypc, had a median carry of only 2 yards!
Conclusion
Mean is not the same thing as median. The majority of RB carries are well below their yards per carry averages; that means realism demands RB's in Madden to be held to 0-3 yards on the majority of their carries but occasionally break off big runs
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