Analysis: What Happens to Madden if There is a Lockout?

[RaychelSnr]

Gamasutra posted a good analysis of what the NFL Lockout might mean for Madden NFL 12. I'm going to provide my own thoughts and notes while selectively quoting parts of the Gamasutra article.

"Electronic Arts will release its 2012 installment of the Madden franchise this year as it has each year since 1988 – but it might be doing so without the marketing force of the league behind it for the first time in the game’s history.

And that has everyone from analysts to EA execs planning for the worst."

This is indeed a big problem. The NFL is a powerful force right now, just look at the ratings for this year's Super Bowl, which happened to be the most watched television program in American history! But what is true today may not be true tomorrow, and if the negotiations were to go so bad that an entire season was canceled? You'd be naiive to think the league's popularity won't take a hit initially.

"But should there be a lockout that lasts any substantial length of time, analysts expect the numbers to take a big hit.

Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities says he expects sales of Madden will be down 50 percent if the season is canceled completely, but will see no negative effects if the season starts within two or three weeks of its normal start time."

EA's forecast included a toned down forecast for what we'd conventionally think as Q3 and Q4 of 2011 for this very reason. Madden sales will be down significantly if the 2011 season doesn't happen -- which may be good news for those looking for a possible way EA doesn't go after an exclusive license again.

We'll be taking a wait and see on this to see what happens with the negotiations between the players and owners, as will a lot of people at Tiburon Studios in Orlando.

[videlsports]

hmmm. A lockout soo the exclusive liscence will not renew... as much as I would like for this to be true.. I cannot give up watching the real thing for the sake of my video games. 2k sports have other options for at least 1 more year. I 'm a supporter for 2k to make college football to prepare for the NFL.

[shigogouhou]

What happens to the rosters if the NFLPA disbands to file anti-trust vs the NFL?

[mac8204]

I think that Madden may actually sell more if we miss out on the actual NFL season. I know that I will definitely be itching to see some football and Madden will be my go to game. This could be a great season for innovation in Madden. They could even push back the release date since they won't be rushed by the actual season and have time to add more new features. I think that the Madden franchise can use this as an opportunity to finally make a huge leap that we've all been waiting for for so long.

[TheCreep]

Re: Analysis: What Happens to Madden if There is a Lockout?

I think that Madden may actually sell more if we miss out on the actual NFL season. I know that I will definitely be itching to see some football and Madden will be my go to game. This could be a great season for innovation in Madden. They could even push back the release date since they won't be rushed by the actual season and have time to add more new features. I think that the Madden franchise can use this as an opportunity to finally make a huge leap that we've all been waiting for for so long.

Your response is along the lines of how I was thinking. Less restrictions maybe. Blowout sale baby, they can throw in everything plus the kitchen sink. Fictitious commentators, the works.

[khaliib]

If there is a lockout, players are no longer under the umbrella of the NFL as the employer. When this happens EA will have to negotiate with players for the rights to have them in the game. EA currently can use them under the NFL Product name, but if/when there is a lockout, NFL players, onlike college can/will seek payment for using their likeness, especially guys in the lower contract range.

You can bet their agents will try and get money for their clients from any source available.
That includes EA to us their clients likeness during a lockout.

Take away the NFL Brand and we will see how people really view the game.
That's scary especially since unlike Backbreaker, they limit customization greatly.

Maybe that's why Ian asked the community what they thought about Total Customization.

I would like the Brand to be striped away, that way gameplay/franchise will have to be top priority.

[BleedingGreen710]

Re: Analysis: What Happens to Madden if There is a Lockout?

I think that Madden may actually sell more if we miss out on the actual NFL season. I know that I will definitely be itching to see some football and Madden will be my go to game. This could be a great season for innovation in Madden. They could even push back the release date since they won't be rushed by the actual season and have time to add more new features. I think that the Madden franchise can use this as an opportunity to finally make a huge leap that we've all been waiting for for so long.

or EA will just spit out the same piece of crap like every year because they know people will still buy it

[taqiyya]

That would be interesting to see. EA to make a game without the real players??? I think personally it would hurt them. Would they charge 60 bucks for a generic game? If so how many would actually buy it?

If it does happen how much will the value of a back breaker game go up? You know that they will be a cheaper buy compared to a EA game with no rights.

Me personally I would use this year and try out a back breaker game because it is something different,and I could make my team as close as possible. I hope there is not a lockout because I love my NFL football. If there is a lockout then I am curious as well about the gaming football situation.

[Cre8]

Re: Analysis: What Happens to Madden if There is a Lockout?

Is it possible that they would do something like they did for NBA Live 10?

Just release some sort of roster update or something? I know what some cynical people might say to that, but it seems like a fiscally smart thing to consider if there isn't a season. Maybe just make a very large game update to download with new/improved features for 1600 MS Points ($20)?..

[TheRealHST]

Real football fans wont disown football if ONE season is lost. Its a gift and a curse for football gamers. You want Madden to lose the license and for 2K, etc to be able to compete again but you also dont want to lose real life football. We'll see...

[jyoung]

Re: Analysis: What Happens to Madden if There is a Lockout?

According to vgchartz, NBA Live's PS1 sales dropped 22% during the most-recent NBA lockout:

NBA Live 98 - 1.40 million (year before lockout)
NBA Live 99 - 1.09 million (year of lockout)

I looked for the sales of NHL games during the 2004-2005 lockout, but didn't find anything.

I think we will see somewhere around a 10% - 20% drop in sales with Madden if a NFL lockout cuts into the regular season.

[taqiyya]

Is it possible that they would do something like they did for NBA Live 10?

Just release some sort of roster update or something? I know what some cynical people might say to that, but it seems like a fiscally smart thing to consider if there isn't a season. Maybe just make a very large game update to download with new/improved features for 1600 MS Points ($20)?..

If they did the roster update route I would think that is still breaking the rules, no NFL would mean no creating something new or updated with NFL property. NBA Live was able to do it because there was not a NBA lockout. I think they did that so they could at least update a good game with new players instead of releasing that crap elite game.

Thats my opinion anyways..

[RaychelSnr]

If there is a lockout, players are no longer under the umbrella of the NFL as the employer. When this happens EA will have to negotiate with players for the rights to have them in the game. EA currently can use them under the NFL Product name, but if/when there is a lockout, NFL players, onlike college can/will seek payment for using their likeness, especially guys in the lower contract range.

You can bet their agents will try and get money for their clients from any source available.
That includes EA to us their clients likeness during a lockout.

Take away the NFL Brand and we will see how people really view the game.
That's scary especially since unlike Backbreaker, they limit customization greatly.

Maybe that's why Ian asked the community what they thought about Total Customization.

I would like the Brand to be striped away, that way gameplay/franchise will have to be top priority.

EA has a signed agreement with the NFLPA through this year at least, so real players and teams will be in the game regardless of a lockout.

[Dazraz]

A prediction of a 50% drop in sales in the face of a full season cancellation seems like a figure pulled out of thin air. People who want a NFL game will buy Madden irrespective of the status of the actual season. I'm not saying that there won't any impact on sales but these impacts can be countered by releasing a game with substantial improvements & not a 'through the motions' yearly release.

[over9000yards]

Re: Analysis: What Happens to Madden if There is a Lockout?

If there is a lock-out, the cover of Madden will be blank.