Ebongreen's advice & observations thread

**ebongreen** · 11-29-2010, 01:01 PM

On offensive speed

Your offense's players can be too fast.

Several examples come to mind. One is that HBs like LeRon James don't have a turbo-button in this game; they're always running as quickly as possible, so running plays don't develop properly and the pathfinding AI can't cope. A particular play from the Packers playbook, a pitch from the Full House formation, results in a fumble more than half the time because the ball hits a pulling FB on its way to LeRon.

Ryan Grant never has this problem.

Another is receiver AI issues. A TE like Storm Stewart running to the flat is an almost guaranteed incompletion or loss, because he gets there too quickly. It's an issue on crossing patterns too - the pass trajectory becomes more horizontal and takes more time, which leads to a higher likelihood of defenders in flat, hook or curl zones drawing a bead and making a pick. On vertical routes, a super-fast receiver again means that the ball is in flight for a longer period of time, giving deep safeties and corners more time to react.

Third is that a quarterback like Darius Pryor drops back more quickly than the offensive line can set in pass-pro, making him an easy target for the DeMarcus Wares of the world.

This pattern has a couple of serious implications for game play, at least for folks who don't sim.

Ultra-fast receivers require a QB with a gun.

Generally you want your QB's THP rating to be higher than your receivers' SPD ratings. QBs with popguns won't match well with a vertical passing game anyway, but if you run a lot of go-routes & Hail Marys to Bellows or Flash Gorden, you're gonna need a passer with a howitzer. In my experience, WRs with speed in the low 90s are "fast enough". Karron Cousins (SPD 88) is "the right speed" for a top-shelf and incredibly versatile TE.

When drafting or selecting players in free agency, offensive speed generally needs to be balanced.

Ballpark SPD figures that seem to work well are multiples of 15. Good OL and QB speed need to be 60 or better, and well-matched to one another. (Speedy QBs need linemen who can keep up.) FBs need to be about 75; and HBs work best at around 90.

That's not to say that (say) Selvin Lankford is ever a truly bad option for your LT, but there may be a toss play where he pulls too far and too quickly - I know Casey Barone does this at FB.

**ebongreen** · 11-29-2010, 05:12 PM

On height/size/jumping in the passing game

Quarterbacks in this game throw no touch passes. They may throw wobblers when they're hit, and passes can be deflected, but other than that it's all arm all the time. This is one aspect where a rocket-armed QB is a disadvantage - all shallow arcs make for easier interceptions.

Linebackers in hook zone or spy coverage, if they're tall and can jump, regularly deflect or intercept passes that would be touch passes over their heads in other games. *cough*Urlacher*/cough*. But an athletic 6'1" 'backer will do - Alonzi Simms averaged an INT better than every other game
this past season for my Packers.

Tall quarterbacks and tall receivers make those linebacker's job more difficult; release-point and catch-point matter.

You will eventually face a team - chances are it will be Gruden's Buccaneers - that has collected three 6'3"+ WRs and will bomb away on you. (I assume it's the Tall/Red-Zone Threat philosophy at work.) If that team has also managed to find a tall QB, I imagine you will be highly annoyed at how easy it is for your excellent-but-short secondary and linebackers in zone coverage to be beaten for long gainers.

You have a couple of options to compete. The first defense is to get your own tall receivers and a tall QB to throw the ball. I recommend you have at least one Big Honking Target in your WR corps, because he'll "always be open". (Moss/Colston/Brandon Marshall.) He may not always catch it, but your QB can and will deliver the ball. Also, the more of them you employ, the fewer are available for some other coach.

The second, and more obvious, defense is to get a tall secondary, and scout your opponent's WR corps before every game. Draft tall corners and find them in free agency - hello, Nnamdi Asomugha! If you play a lot of man coverage, know who the tall targets are and make sure you have a similar or taller corner in coverage. Rearrange your depth chart before or during kickoff if you have to. (If I don't do this, I usually end up regretting it.)

Especially if you blitz, don't match your 5'10" SS on Kevin Boss or your very talented 5'10" nickel corner on Limas Sweed in the slot - the AI will find and exploit that matchup all day. (The AI loves TEs and slot receivers.)

**BeatArmy** · 11-29-2010, 08:24 PM

Re: On height/size/jumping in the passing game

As an "Amen" to what you've said here, notice that if you run Martz' system, your TE will often be OOB when attempting to catch something on an out route.

The AI truly loves slot guys. If you have a first round WR you'd like to develop, start him in the slot straight away. He'll get LOTS of opportunities immediately especially in a spread/Martz/3WR set.

When running, to quote the OP, in general, put 2TE in to guarantee a head start. I'm not sure what it is about the game but if there's anybody from a small FS to a DL kicking around the LOS, he'll tackle your HB immediately. I've found that I can only run if I'm for sure outnumbering the defense at the LOS or at least even. Should you put a single TE at the line in a 3WR set and the D put all seven in the box instead of sliding out to cover a WR, you're in trouble.

Sorry if I hijacked your thread at all.

**ebongreen** · 11-30-2010, 12:23 PM

On custom sliders, the running game, and play-action passes

Originally posted by BeatArmy

When running, to quote the OP, in general, put 2TE in to guarantee a head start. I'm not sure what it is about the game but if there's anybody from a small FS to a DL kicking around the LOS, he'll tackle your HB immediately. I've found that I can only run if I'm for sure outnumbering the defense at the LOS or at least even. Should you put a single TE at the line in a 3WR set and the D put all seven in the box instead of sliding out to cover a WR, you're in trouble.

Sorry if I hijacked your thread at all.

Not a problem, BeatArmy. It isn't necessarily a monologue.

Using the default sliders, opposing linebackers are murder on the running game: hyper-aggressive and incredible tacklers, your back will be wrapped up behind the line of scrimmage more often than not. This tendency also makes them frequent liabilities against the play-action pass, which you can (and should) exploit.

Heavy run sets and good fullbacks help your running game tremendously. Linebackers and D-linemen will still shoot gaps, either on designed blitzes or of their own accord to tackle your HB. If you run singleback only, even 3TE-1WR, they're going to kick your butt sooner or later. One (or more!) FBs work wonders in giving your HB time and space to get positive yardage. In the Packers playbook Full House formation, I substitute a second fullback routinely in the "#2 halfback" slot because good blocking backs are my primary halfback's best friends. Casey Barone works incredibly well in this position because he is both an excellent blocker and a great receiver when I run play-action.

If you want a vaguely realistic running game, seriously consider custom sliders. There are many fine sets in the Sliders forum; play with several and see what suits you.

Even with custom sliders and heavy run sets, you probably won't be able to run against certain AI teams and configurations. I've had some dominant Packers squads and some highly effective running plays, and there are AI teams/playbooks/coaches that blitz unceasingly and will throttle your best efforts.

Against endless linebacker blitzing, waggle/counter/boot-leg play-action passes are one of your best options for gaining yards. There are generally three types of play-action passes I see in HC09 playbooks: inside-handoff fakes, stretch-handoff fakes where the QB then retreats directly away from the line of scrimmage (e.g. Colts playbook), and waggle/bootleg action where the QB fakes a hand-off to one side then rolls the other way. (There are others, but these are the most common).

Blitzing defenders diagnose the inside fake much more reliably than the waggle action and often will vigorously pursue your quarterback on a straight drop-back, ignoring the run-fake. The boot action redirects them horizontally and allows time for your free linemen to pick them up, your QB to finish his waggle and read the field, and your receivers' routes to develop.

That said, under-center play-action against a stacked line of scrimmage is a recipe for a sack. In ultra-short yardage and later down situations (e.g. 3rd and inches), you'll see safeties crouched on the LOS. Most play-action plays invoke the O-line to run-block for a step, then retreat to pass block. Having the safeties on the LOS mucks up the blocking AI so much that even against teams that don't have a blitz called, a defender will shoot a gap unblocked and take your QB down before he fakes the handoff.

If you want to run play-action in those situations, do it from shotgun, or find a play where the offense immediately retreats into pass-blocking. I think the Packers playbook has one of these latter cases: it's a single-back trips-bunch-right draw-action play. I can't say if it works in this situation because I found this unblocked-defender-takedown tendency so annoying I swore off short-yardage play-action ages ago. Truly, in this situation you're safer just passing from the shotgun - period.

Last and not least, play-action against goal-line defenses is a gold mine, as are pitches left and fullback runs. I find inside hand-offs against the AI inside the five yard-line to be remarkably fruitless, because the AI's default is to sell-out to stop the inside run, usually by blitzing the MLB and the corners. The goal-line play-action boot with three tight ends running routes gives me more touchdowns than I can possibly count, because there's basically no-one left in coverage after your run-fake.

Regarding the pitches left and the fullback run, in all the goal-line defenses, I can't remember seeing one where the SS blitzes, while the MLB charges regularly. Generally if you're going to run, you'll need to run away from the blitzer(s), so left is the way to go. Pitching left makes the MLB have to run to catch you.

With the goal-line full-back run, the halfback fakes an outside run to the right while the fullback charges the goal-line behind your left guard. Frequently both the MLB and SS follow the HB, and your FB walks in untouched. This is most useful from inside the opponent's two-yard-line - further out and the defenders have time to redirect.

**ebongreen** · 11-30-2010, 05:13 PM

On the passing game

The completion rate on deep passes in this game is unrealistically good, while the completion rate on short passes is unrealistically bad, even with custom sliders. Therefore the deep pass is by far the biggest threat you face - and your biggest offensive weapon - in HC09, and pass defense is paramount.

There are two basic ways to defend the receiver: zone or man schemes. There are also two basic ways to defend the passer: blitz or coverage. Put'em together and you've got four basic combinations, and examples of some teams that I believe practice them as of career starts: man coverage with safety help (Falcons, Packers), man coverage with blitzes (Cowboys, Titans), zone-blitz schemes (Seahawks, Steelers), and zone coverage without blitzing (Jaguars, Texans, all the Tampa-2 teams: CHI, TB, DET, MIN).

The Giants and Eagles default AI runs combo-coverage blitzes, which are both the hardest and easiest things to defeat, and I'll talk about them separately.

None of the four schemes works against all offenses all the time, no matter how good your players and coaches are. If you call plays or supersim, you must learn to recognize what sorts of passes your opponent calls, and you must use the right scheme(s) against the AIs favorite plays.

For example, I love to play press-man coverage with blitzing; after all, the least productive passer is the one eating turf with the unthrown ball in his hands. When I look at the scouting report for your opponent, I look for his favorite pass plays (% called): does he operate from shotgun much? Do his backs and tight-ends pass-protect much, or are they out on routes? Does he do much play-action? If your opponent operates from under center, doesn't protect with his backs, and shows few if any play-action passes, it'll be a career day for your blitzers.

On the other hand, the offenses of Ophamer's Patriots, Dungy's Colts, Coughlin's Giants and Gruden's Bucs are happiest and most productive when I blitz, either zone or man, and are least productive when I use seven- or eight-man zone coverage. All three AIs love shotgun formation and have plays designed to routinely foil man coverage. Routinely blitzing those teams is a recipe for losing games. So I adapt my defensive play-calling to account for what teams want to do.

You will also find some teams' AI playcaller return to (what it thinks is) a "money play" over and over again, especially in the fourth quarter when it's losing. If you observe that play in action and can find a defense to counter it, you'll get sack after sack, or interception after interception.

Likewise, only some of your pass plays will work against any given opponent, and you must learn to recognize what scheme the opposing defense runs and how to attack it.

Against zone coverage, you need to find route combinations that exploit the voids in the zones - you need to hit'em where they ain't. A team that runs Cover-3 or Cover-4 zone schemes, with or without blitzing, is going to be difficult to beat with the deep ball, but crossing routes in the 5-10 yard vicinity will generally work. Versus a Tampa-2 team you can chuck it deep if you find a vulnerable safety; you can use route combinations like flats-and-curls; or you can use five-yard routes like TE hitches and do ball-control between the D-line and linebackers. I wrote up a thread on attacking the Tampa-2 a while back; there's a few more tips there.

Against a man squad that rarely blitzes, you can run almost anything, but double-moves and play-action crossing patterns are your best bets for significant chunks of yardage. West Coast passing style was designed to defeat deep-safety man coverages, so slants and other short patterns are easy yards. Against man-blitzes, adjust your pre-snap pass protection carefully for standard passes and/or use play-action bootlegs all day, every day.

**TheShizNo1** · 11-30-2010, 10:36 PM

Re: On the passing game

nice write up

**ebongreen** · 12-01-2010, 02:07 PM

On draft picks, free agency and the salary cap

Generally, draft picks are the cheapest labor you can find; free agency is a luxury for teams with lots of cap space. If you take over a team in cap-hell and need an escape hatch, abandon free-agency and pour your efforts into drafting well.

Your "money" draft picks are #17-64 - later half of the first round and all of the second. From these picks you get players locked up with four-to-five year contracts, and you get first chance to re-sign them when their contracts begin to expire without the hassle of restricted free agency. Since the RFA process erases play knowledge, even if you opt to retain a player by matching the offer, it's a significant advantage to not re-train your re-signed starters.

It should be obvious, but I'll say it anyway. When you look at off-season free agents, look for younger players with room to improve, or younger players who are already studs. Player stats (and performance) generally begins to decline after age 30. Signing a great player in his late twenties or early thirties to a long-term big-money deal is going to mean paying that player more than he's worth sooner or later, which is one way teams get into cap-hell. From Branch Rickey: "Trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late."

Personally, I very rarely consider pursuing any stud (OVR 90+) FA over the age of 26. A six-year contract, for example, means you could consider cutting him at age 30 with only one or two years left. If that same player is 28, you're betting on his productivity remaining high at the age of 32, which for many players is a bad bet. The Selvin Lankfords and Xavier Coxes of the world are probably exempt from this guideline, for obvious reasons.

Generally, you negotiate two contracts for a player you draft and keep: his rookie deal and mid-career deal. Let's say one of your draft picks is 22 when he enters the league. His initial deal is likely to be 3-5 years, which means he's 25-27 when it finishes.

If he's 26 (a former first-round pick, negotiating in his fifth year), you need to decide if he's going to be that same productive player when he's 32 or 33. If not, you should have already drafted and trained his replacement, and probably traded him for draft picks in the off-season.

For that reason, first-round picks are a little riskier than later-round picks; seconds you can resign sooner (in their fourth year), and thirds or lessers you can match as RFAs at the end of their third year.

Teams are reluctant to trade veterans under big-money long-term contracts or franchise tags, either coming or going, due to cap implications. Nobody wants to trade for OVR 94 Aaron Kampman under a $10M+ franchise tag, and any player you've signed to a long-term deal is going to be a major cap-stressor if you trade him early during Contract #2.

If you want a player on some other team that's a former 1st or 2nd round pick, trade for him before that team locks him up for his second contract. Then you can do so instead. Regarding those destined for RFA the same applies, but you risk those players receiving offers from other teams. At least if you don't match, you get (generally) high-round draft picks in return.

For more information on the relationship between draft picks and the salary cap, look here.

**ebongreen** · 12-02-2010, 12:40 PM

On game-planning

(First outlined here, now expanded)

Game-planning for me isn't just a practice thing and Adam Schefter's talking head.

When I look at the Tuesday scouting report, I mostly ignore the down-&-distance plays specified. What I find useful are:

The percentage of run/pass on down-and-distance. Are you playing the pass-happy Cowboys or the run-first Steelers?.
The percentage each play gets called, regardless of down. Plays that you see 3% or better are probably mastered and they're favorites of the opposing playbook.
Look at their favorite run plays. Do they primarily run between the tackles or do they attack the edges? Do they run a Colts/Texans/Broncos-style zone blocking scheme, or are they a power-pulling team like the Giants? Do they run a lot of counters? Zone blitzes toward or near the offense's point-of-attack is a great way to foil a running play; if the back redirects, the zone defenders away from the point can come downhill for the tackle.
Look at the pass patterns of the favorite plays. Are they primarily designed to defeat zone (route combinations to defeat Tampa-2, for example) or man (comebacks, double-moves)? Is it a West-Coast-style quick-passing attack or does the playbook run more deep routes?

If they love curls and comebacks, have your corners or linebackers lurk in curl zones or lateral hook zones. Tampa-2 was born to defeat WC passing, so be able to flood the short and intermediate zones against Holmgren's Seahawks. If the plays favor deep passing, use man underneath with two deep safeties or play your secondary in deep thirds or quarters zone coverage, with linebackers arrayed underneath.
Look at the number of backs that block on their pass plays. Do they use backs in pass-pro or are they sent out as receivers? If the backs block, tend to cover or zone-blitz. If they receive, tend to man-blitz.
Look for play-action passes. How common are they - any in the favorites group (3% or more)? Which ones do they run - inside or bootleg, crossing routes or deep? Remember the AI linebackers play run-first, and man-blitzing against PA is a virtual guarantee you're gonna get burned, so your secondary will have to be in position to prevent a quick throw. Again, zone blitzing or just plain zone coverage helps a lot against play-action passes.

Then it's on to defense. What do I remember of this team's defensive scheme from the last time I played them? You know your division foes pretty well, but maybe they changed coaches or coordinators in the off-season. (You did look at the off-season staff recap, right?) If/when Rod Marinelli is fired by the Lions, chances are they won't run Tampa-2 anymore, so be ready for surprises the first time you play any team in a given season.

Once I've checked the scouting report, I look at the other team's injury list and depth chart. Who among their preferred starters is banged up and won't show on Sunday? Is Darren Sharper still the preferred starter at SS, even though his speed rating is barely 80 now? Has Andre Woodson taken over from Jon Kitna at quarterback yet? Can their secondary actually cover, or are they completions waiting to happen - especially in nickel or dime? Who are their game-breakers, and who are their weak links?

Information is power - the power to crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women.

**Pass_The_Cows** · 12-02-2010, 01:13 PM

Re: Ebongreen's advice & observations thread

I don't know if there's still money in the Strategy Guide business with all the free info on the internet nowadays but if there is you really should look into it.

**ebongreen** · 12-02-2010, 01:58 PM

Re: Ebongreen's advice & observations thread

Aw, thanks dude! But for this game and this board, it's a labor of love.

On the other hand, if EA or someone else wants to pay me absurd amounts of money to be a playtester, I'd think about it really hard.

**Tweeg** · 12-02-2010, 07:42 PM

Re: Ebongreen's advice & observations thread

Originally posted by ebongreen

Aw, thanks dude! But for this game and this board, it's a labor of love.

On the other hand, if EA or someone else wants to pay me absurd amounts of money to be a playtester, I'd think about it really hard.

EA has playtesters?

*This is meant to be a one time punch line. Please do not ban me or yell at me.

**Winnipeg59** · 12-02-2010, 09:47 PM

Re: Ebongreen's advice & observations thread

I too would like to thank you for this thread.
While there are many ways to play the game and various strategies to employ, hearing about other options or better ways to do what you normally do is always good!

Keep it coming!!!

**ebongreen** · 12-03-2010, 10:30 AM

On restricted free agency

(Documented by me here)

RFA doesn't always work as designed. In theory, every player who was a third-round-or-lower draft choice goes to RFA at the end of his three-year rookie contract. As a GM, you set a tender on him requiring draft choice compensation if another team signs him to an offer sheet, and you have the option to match the best offer he receives. If you match, you keep the player; if you allow another team's offer to stand, you get one or more draft choices in return.

For highly-rated players at valued positions, this works as designed. But there is a hidden scale weighting the value of positions, and there are only so many slots for bidding on free agents between the FA signing period; low-rated players at skill positions and highly-rated players at positions like fullback never come up for bidding or matching. Because they don't, they're automatically allocated to the great unsigned free-agent pool and receive training camp invites (usually for other teams) in pre-season.

In addition, any RFA loses his accumulated play knowledge during the bidding process, so even if you opt to retain him you'll need to retrain him next year. He'll essentially be a highly-paid street FA, a virtual stranger to your playbook.

To offset this, I recommend that you look at the FA Preview after the Super Bowl each year and note any RFAs-to-be on your squad. Cut-&-resign in the Offseason week - the week immediately after Pro Bowl Week - the ones you absolutely want to keep for next year and sign to longer-term contracts in-season, and only consign to RFA the ones you're willing to let go. This should preserve those players' play knowledge as well, and let you pick up the next year virtually intact.

As an alternative, you could do this following a player's second season rather than his third, and simulate negotiating an extension before RFA were ever to apply to that player - you know, like real teams do in real life.

The downside to both of these is that if you fail to negotiate an extension, the player will walk or require a franchise tag, and you'll get no draft choice compensation.

This workaround is subject to catastrophic cheeze - you could do this with your entire roster every year and never sign anyone to a long-term deal. It's a huge and game-breaking exploit if you abuse it. If that's how you roll, I don't want to hear about it, okay?

The last way to avoid losing players that you "should" keep through RFA I'll discuss in my next post.

**Winnipeg59** · 12-03-2010, 10:54 AM

Re: Ebongreen's advice & observations thread

Since the RFA process erases play knowledge, even if you opt to retain a player by matching the offer, it's a significant advantage to not re-train your re-signed starters.

A follow-up, if I may...
Would you explain the statement above. I've never really thought anything of this before. I read it as once a player is "protected" as one of your RFA's, they suddenly forget???
So even if he was on your team, and then you match an offer from another team he has suddenly lost his memory of your plays?

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