Official Boston Red Sox 2005 Thread

[Misfit]

Quite a wacky game today. It was a win and the offense was still smoking but its never a good sign when you let an 8 run lead melt away. Middle relief is still a problem for this team and I'm not sure Embree makes it to the end of the season.

This team is crusing right now, but they aren't unbeatable. In a short series, the Twins and White Sox could prove lethal in the AL as could Anaheim if their starting pitching gets on track. Schilling and Wells aren't a sure bet and Clement doesn't have a lot of postseason experience. And St. Louis still looks like they might be the best team in baseball right now.

[ILLCHILL]

In reply to what another poster said about the possiblity of re-acquiring Pokey, I think he is out for the year with an injury.

[GBrushTWood]

Reese underwent right shoulder surgery on May 6th and was supposed to be out 4-6 weeks. He's not ready to hit yet, but he's not out for the season.

In addition, Seattle has seen the emergence of a prospect named Mike Morse at SS, making Reese seemingly expendable. The only thing is, does Reese want to be a defensive replacement at this point? Maybe the chance to nab another ring would override his desire to start? It doesn't have to be Reese either, just somebody to replace the corpse known as Ramon Vazquez, who can't hit, can't run, has been injured all year, and isn't a ++ defender.

After thinking about acquiring Jason Schmidt, I've read a couple of scenarios on SoSH that seem to benefit the club this year and beyond.

Jason Schmidt for Wade Miller, Kelly Shoppach, and maybe Jon Papelbon.
This opens up a spot in the rotation for Schmidt, gives our rotation that definitive 1-2 of Schilling and Schmidt, and strengthens our pitching overall, without giving up any of Hanley, Pedroia, Lester, Sanchez. Shoppach is going to get moved, we know that. Wade Miller has been mediocre thus far IMO. 4.83 ERA, 5.74 K/9, 1.45 K/BB, 1.43 WHIP is not that great. I'd definitely be up for moving him.
I'm not sure the Giants would want to make this move, however, based purely on Miller having almost 5 years service time and being arb-eligible. If they didn't take on Miller and asked for Arroyo, I probably wouldn't do this move.

[Stu]

Another point regarding the benefits of acquiring Schmidt. It would give the Red Sox 2 aces heading down the stretch and we all know how well that worked out for them last year with Schill and Pedro. A team with 2 aces is virtually unbeatable in the playoffs. Although he's 32, Schmidt is much younger than Schilling so it gives them a legitimate #1 going forward. Schilling probably only has this year and maybe next year left as a #1 starter.

I agree on Shoppach. There's really no reason not to trade him, barring injury. They're high on Papelbon but I dont think they'd be opposed to moving him.

[CWood2]

Quote: Originally Posted by GBrushTWood

Reese underwent right shoulder surgery on May 6th and was supposed to be out 4-6 weeks. He's not ready to hit yet, but he's not out for the season. In addition, Seattle has seen the emergence of a prospect named Mike Morse at SS, making Reese seemingly expendable. The only thing is, does Reese want to be a defensive replacement at this point? Maybe the chance to nab another ring would override his desire to start? It doesn't have to be Reese either, just somebody to replace the corpse known as Ramon Vazquez, who can't hit, can't run, has been injured all year, and isn't a ++ defender. After thinking about acquiring Jason Schmidt, I've read a couple of scenarios on SoSH that seem to benefit the club this year and beyond. Jason Schmidt for Wade Miller, Kelly Shoppach, and maybe Jon Papelbon. This opens up a spot in the rotation for Schmidt, gives our rotation that definitive 1-2 of Schilling and Schmidt, and strengthens our pitching overall, without giving up any of Hanley, Pedroia, Lester, Sanchez. Shoppach is going to get moved, we know that. Wade Miller has been mediocre thus far IMO. 4.83 ERA, 5.74 K/9, 1.45 K/BB, 1.43 WHIP is not that great. I'd definitely be up for moving him. I'm not sure the Giants would want to make this move, however, based purely on Miller having almost 5 years service time and being arb-eligible. If they didn't take on Miller and asked for Arroyo, I probably wouldn't do this move.

I don't think Theo would include Papelbon in a deal for Schmidt. If they want Abe Alvarez, I'm game, but considering the uncertainty of Schmidt and his salary, I don't think it would happen. Shoppach could play for them now and to get a good pitcher and a pretty good prospect to save them $10 mil, that should be more than good enough. If not, I'd be willing to move on with what we got.

[rsox]

I think it would take one heck of a package to get the Giants to trade Schmidt. However, Kirk Reuter and Bret Tomko are most definately up for grabs. Schmidt is starting to regain his form, in his last two starts he has allowed 0 runs, has 15 K's and has only walked 3 in 16 innings. If he continues to improve like this then by the trading deadline the Giants are going to start asking for more than Kelly Shoppach.

I think the Red Sox rotation with Schilling and Clement is more than capable of getting the job done, they need help in the bullpen and that should be priority one. Getting someone to replace Vazquez shouldn't be too hard, they could look for a Tony Graffanino or a Chris Woodward, they also have a pretty good utility guy in Dave Berg down in Pawtucket (Berg is hitting .299 with 0 HR's and 33 RBI's for the PawSox).

[GBrushTWood]

Quote: Originally Posted by CWood2

I don't think Theo would include Papelbon in a deal for Schmidt. If they want Abe Alvarez, I'm game, but considering the uncertainty of Schmidt and his salary, I don't think it would happen. Shoppach could play for them now and to get a good pitcher and a pretty good prospect to save them $10 mil, that should be more than good enough. If not, I'd be willing to move on with what we got.

I think the biggest thing we're assuming here is Schmidt's health. That's the real wildcard in this situation. I've heard he's been better lately, but there seemed to be some serious concerns about this guy's elbow as early as a couple weeks ago.
It would certainly be a high risk/high reward type of trade, and when you're looking at possible damaged goods, one that Theo might be averse to pulling the trigger with. OTOH, Schmidt's contract has a club option in 2006 ($10M club option, $3M buyout), so acquiring Schmidt wouldn't necessarily indicate a long term commitment, though it would certainly seem like a step in the direction...

The other thing regarding Schmidt is if we see him as the type of guy to anchor our rotation 3-4 years into the future. I'm sure that Bill James, et al are performing their projections as to what Schmidt might produce in the next couple of years, and how much that is worth financially to the team.
Remember, we have fairly solid prospects making their way through the system these days. If a few of Papelbon, Lester, Sanchez (or others) can be dependable pitchers in 3-4 years, that would save tremendous resources otherwise dedicated towards expensive SP like Schmidt or other established FA starters in their 30's.
We would then be able to allocate these resources towards the best FA to come out.
We know that the FA pitching class this off-season is fairly weak (Burnett and...??), but how about into the future? Santana and Sheets seem to be locked up. I think more and more smaller market teams are locking up and will continue to lock up their young stud arms before they hit arbitration and even reach FA before they're past 30 years old.

This would certainly be an interesting deal. If Theo does pull it, I'm confident that he's calculated that Schmidt is worth the risk. I think prospects are such crapshoots that if you get the chance to acquire a Schmidt for a package of W. Miller + Shoppach + top minor league prospect not named Pedroia, Ramirez, Lester, Sanchez, you do it, especially with Schmidt not being tied down long term.

*Edit* One thing I didn't even think of is that we're dealing with Brian Sabean here. This guy just got bent over a chair by Jim Hendry in the Hawkins/Williams trade. It's not out of the realm of possibiltiy that Theo "sells him some fine real estate in the country".

[CWood2]

Quote: Originally Posted by GBrushTWood

I think the biggest thing we're assuming here is Schmidt's health. That's the real wildcard in this situation. I've heard he's been better lately, but there seemed to be some serious concerns about this guy's elbow as early as a couple weeks ago. It would certainly be a high risk/high reward type of trade, and when you're looking at possible damaged goods, one that Theo might be averse to pulling the trigger with. OTOH, Schmidt's contract has a club option in 2006 ($10M club option, $3M buyout), so acquiring Schmidt wouldn't necessarily indicate a long term commitment, though it would certainly seem like a step in the direction... The other thing regarding Schmidt is if we see him as the type of guy to anchor our rotation 3-4 years into the future. I'm sure that Bill James, et al are performing their projections as to what Schmidt might produce in the next couple of years, and how much that is worth financially to the team. Remember, we have fairly solid prospects making their way through the system these days. If a few of Papelbon, Lester, Sanchez (or others) can be dependable pitchers in 3-4 years, that would save tremendous resources otherwise dedicated towards expensive SP like Schmidt or other established FA starters in their 30's. We would then be able to allocate these resources towards the best FA to come out. We know that the FA pitching class this off-season is fairly weak (Burnett and...??), but how about into the future? Santana and Sheets seem to be locked up. I think more and more smaller market teams are locking up and will continue to lock up their young stud arms before they hit arbitration and even reach FA before they're past 30 years old. This would certainly be an interesting deal. If Theo does pull it, I'm confident that he's calculated that Schmidt is worth the risk. I think prospects are such crapshoots that if you get the chance to acquire a Schmidt for a package of W. Miller + Shoppach + top minor league prospect not named Pedroia, Ramirez, Lester, Sanchez, you do it, especially with Schmidt not being tied down long term. *Edit* One thing I didn't even think of is that we're dealing with Brian Sabean here. This guy just got bent over a chair by Jim Hendry in the Hawkins/Williams trade. It's not out of the realm of possibiltiy that Theo "sells him some fine real estate in the country".

I share your confidence in Theo. I've followed the Braves since '91 so I watched Schmidt come up and show his stuff as a young starter. When we lost him just before he hit his prime, I always wanted to get him back. So if the Sox can snatch him if he's healthy, I agree with your assessment. It's a great feeling though; if a deal doesn't get done, you have to think it's for the best. The only thing I question is his constant attempts to unload Manny. I don't care how much he makes, we're a completely different team without him hitting behind Ortiz!

Looking forward to more Schmidt rumblings and other potential targets though, fun time of year.