OSFM 2016: St. Louis Cardinals

[ilstu24]

I've gotten a pretty good head start on this already. I think I have all the players I want to include barring any new additions (and with the way this offseason went I'm pretty confident in saying there won't be any)
Here's my preliminary list, and potentials will be listed along side of them.

Starting Pitchers (28)
Adam Wainwright- 97
Carlos Martinez- 94
Michael Wacha- 90
Lance Lynn- 85
Mike Leake- 83
Jaime Garcia- 87
Tim Cooney- 82
Marco Gonzales- 83
Tyler Lyons- 80
Alex Reyes- 93
Jack Flaherty- 84
Luke Weaver- 81
Junior Fernandez- 82
Sandy Alcantara- 79
Corey Littrell- 77
Ronnie Williams- 77
Austin Gomber- 76
Ian McKinney- 76
Mike Mayers- 74
Andrew Morales- 74
Jake Woodford- 76
Jimmy Reed- 73
Jayson Aquino- 74
Matt Bowman- 74
J.C. Sulbaran- 70
John Gast- 70 (Just Retired evidently)
Nick Petree- 71
Jeremy Hefner- 74


I'll add some more later.

[ilstu24]

Here's how I figure my potential ratings for prospects if anyone wants to know.

I use a "scale" for hitters and for pitchers.

I am using Baseball Prospectus as my main source, but obviously they don't touch on all guys. I utilize a ton of sources and I'm writing about prospects for a fantasy baseball site, so I have a pretty good grasp on all teams systems.

The Cardinals top 10 is free on BP, so I'll use it as an example.

1. Alex Reyes- 93 POT
Why: BP says he's a future role 70-Number 1 starter. He still has command issues and the max I'd go for a prospect is 95, and Giolito is a 95. Reyes checks in a tad bit below him for me.

2. Jack Flaherty- 84 POT
Why: BP says he's a future number 3 SP, and put a 55 on him. My scale is roughly 95-90 for number 1 starters. 89-85 for future number twos. 84-80 for mid-rotation arms (most 3's and some 4's are here). 79-76 for back end starters and 75-73 for swing guys. I have him at 83 due to his plus command, but he won't pile up the Ks.

3. Magneuris Sierra- 83 POT
Why: BP puts a 55 on him, calling him an above average CF. Speed/contact profile won't hit for much pop.

4. Marco Gonzales- 83 POT
Why: BP put a 50+ on him, meaning he has the floor of a 3/4 guy but he could be better than that. He a legit MLB out pitch with the changeup. Command all three pitches well. Lacks huge upside but should be long-term MLB SP.

5. Tim Cooney- 82 POT
Why: BP puts a 50+ on him also, but I've watched him pitch and seen plenty of Gonzales also. He doesnt have the ceiling Marco has, more of a command type. Would be in most MLB rotations now.

6. Nick Plummer- 83 POT
Why: BP puts a 50+ on him, calling him an above-average corner OF. Future 20/20 potential while hitting for a decent average. Takes walks. Likely future LF cuz arm isn't great but can play CF now.

7. Luke Weaver- 81 POT
Why: BP puts a 50 on him. Calling him a likely number 4 SP, they give him a chance to be more. Fastball-changeup guy right now, if the breaking ball develops ill bump him higher up.

8. Edmundo Sosa- 81 POT
Why: BP calls him an average MLB regular at SS. Might end up being a bit higher for me, but I think this is fair. No real stand out tools but he's a good all-around player. They compared him to Erick Aybar, and he's a little higher so I might go there.

9. Charlie Tilson- 80 POT
Why: BP calls him a MLB average CF. Speed and defense is the game here.

10. Junior Fernandez- 82 POT
Why: BP put a 50 on him. Calling him a potential 4 SP/high leverage bullpen arm. Might bump him up quite a bit because he's so young.

Others:
Bryce Denton- 79. I want to go higher as he has best power potential in the system and he was second round pick. 79-82 range is where I'm considering him at but he might have to move to the OF down the line.

Harrison Bader-79. Third RD pick with no plus tools but he mashed in the SEC. I really want to go higher but 79 seems right. Might be highly rated initially as college hitters move fast.

Sandy Alcantara- 78. Very similar to Fernandez. Both have hit 100 in short bursts. A guy to watch as he might end up much higher down the road.

Carson Kelly- 77. Excellent defensive catcher. Won a minor league gold glove. Bat hasn't come around but he's a future MLB backup due to the glove.

Corey Littrell- 77. Not flashy but has 4 pitches already. Number 5 SP profile.

Any questions on potentials please ask. I'll be happy to discuss with you.

[BigDHoss45]

Hey ilstu24 do you have any updates on the roster? and what some possible ratings will be? I'm excited for the roster thanks for your work and can't wait to use a roster where the Cards young guys have legit ratings!

[mhagf4]

I'm not trying to be critical, just constructive...

I think your potentials are way too high. You have guys that you describe as a #4 starter with a 81 potential. In the game, most #4 starters actual ratings are like 73-77.

I'd use actual ratings as follows for pitchers:

95+ HOF, CY young type players
85-90- Ace type pitchers
80-85- Solid #2, could be a #1 on weaker teams
75-80- solid #3
73-77- solid #4 (notice some overlap)
70-75- #5, perhaps a swing man
68-72- Swing man, AAAA type pitcher

You cannot, and should not rate a guy who projects to be a #4 or possibly #3 any higher than a high 70s.

You also list a guy who looks like a backup catcher as a 77. Backup catchers in the game usually have a high 60s, low 70s rating. You list an "mlb average" CFer as an 80. MLb average CFers in the game are usually mid 70s.


Oh, and because I am familiar with him from his years in the KC org, JC Sulbaran is a D. No higher than a 65.

Again, I don't mean to sound like a prick on this, just giving my opinion. I don't think you are off in your scouting reports, it just seems that you have your relative scale about 4-5 points high across the board.

[BDKiiing]

Agreed. The last couple years they've definitely been inflated probably 5 per on potentials, and ratings a little two high compared to every other teams. The Cardinals are a middle of the pack farm system now, they shouldn't be this high rated. Also, be sure to make everyone has their correct ages this year, last year the Cardinals prospects were all a year to young.

[LeftyShortstop]

Is there a way to help make the players or ratings?

[cardfan07]

Can't wait to get OSFM going in 16! I actually don't agree with the comments posted earlier. The potential ratings you've given the players seem to be fairly in line with the ratings cardinal players have had in the past. Ace type pitchers are very often in the low 90's, not high 80's. SCEA has always had a tendency to lowball a players rating knowing they can improve their ratings throughout the year (case in point Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas began the 2015 season with low 80's/high 70's ratings but ended the season much more optimistic). The Cardinals rotation is widely considered to be one of the most solid in baseball especially when taking into account their starting depth. Maybe the view on fringe guys like Lyons and Cooney is on the optimistic side, but that's all up to interpretation. Happy OSFMing!

[tugboatstyle]

ratedt.Louis fan and I love them more than anyone but you got some of those players rated way too high. Lol Wainwright's more a 94, Martinez 90 Wacha 89, Reyes 87, Leak 85, Garcia 83. I hope all the teams ain't like that with their rosters that's overboard. Wainwright ain't been a 97 but maybe 3 years in his whole career and definitely not now 97 is his prime.