MLB/SCEA Simulated Pitching Stats Analysis (Sliders)

[Mike Lowe]

For anyone who frequents the MLB Show slider forum, it's common knowledge that the game produces too many complete games and shutouts in simulated season stats. I've seen a handful of posts discussing the best way to combat this is to set the SP slider to 0 when simulating games, and then adjust it again before an actual played game.

After doing some testing with this, I disagree with this approach.

While I've also not been able to find that perfect sweet spot in testing SP stamina, MR stamina, and computer manager hook (ALL of which affect simulated games), what I believe is more important to "nail down" are what I'd consider more relevant stats such as number of innings pitched and strikeouts. This also impacts the number of pitcher wins and obviously has a huge affect on the number of innings per game that a MR pitches, something the game inflates FAR too much of on default. For instance, you'll see a lot of guys with more innings pitched than games pitched which doesn't match true MLB outside of a long reliever (or the dreaded MR used as a SP!).

What I'm finding is that good results can be found when simulating with the following:

• SP Stamina for simulated games set for both USER/AI - 10
• MR Stamina for simulated games set for both USER/AI -0
• Manager Hook - 7 (8 works too, just depends on your taste)
• You could still adjust the played games sliders to anything you'd like, so long as you use what's above when simulating other games.

If I set the hook to 9, not enough guys throw 200+ innings. If I put MR stamina to anything about 0, I'm seeing too many innings pitched compared to games appeared in.

Here are some guidelines for comparison, and then a simulated season using the settings listed above. This first one is with manager hook set to 8:

2014 American League/2015 Simulated American League

• Innings Pitched
  • 17 P had 200+ innings/22 P had 200+ innings
  • 4 P had 225+ innings/1 P had 225+ innings
• Strikeouts
  • 6 P had 200+ Ks/5 P had 200+ Ks
  • 3 P had 250+ ks/0 P had 250+ Ks
• Complete Games
  • 14 P had 2+ complete games/At least 50 P had 2+ complete games
  • 1 P had 5 complete games/13 P had 5 complete games
• Shutouts
  • 4 P had 2+ shutouts/44 P had 2+ shutouts

2014 National League/2015 Simulated National league

• Innings Pitched
  • 14 P had 200+ innings/21 P had 200+ innings
  • 2 P had 225+ innings/0 P had 225+ innings
• Strikeouts
  • 6 P had 200+ Ks/11 P had 200+ Ks
  • 0 P had 250+ ks/0 P had 250+ ks
• Complete Games
  • 11 P had 2+ complete games/At least 50 P had 2+ complete games
  • 2 P had 5 complete games/12 P had 5 complete games
• Shutouts
  • 9 P had 2+ shutouts/36 P had 2+ shutouts
  • 2 P had 3+ shutouts/14 p had 3+ shutouts

MANAGER HOOK SET TO 7 INSTEAD OF 8

2014 American League/2015 Simulated American League

• Innings Pitched
  • 17 P had 200+ innings/19 P had 200+ innings
  • 4 P had 225+ innings/3 P had 225+ innings
• Strikeouts
  • 6 P had 200+ Ks/4 P had 200+ Ks
  • 3 P had 250+ ks/0 P had 250+ Ks
• Complete Games
  • 14 P had 2+ complete games/At least 50 P had 2+ complete games
  • 1 P had 5 complete games/8 P had 5 complete games
• Shutouts
  • 4 P had 2+ shutouts/22 P had 2+ shutouts

2014 National League/2015 Simulated National league

• Innings Pitched
  • 14 P had 200+ innings/17 P had 200+ innings
  • 2 P had 225+ innings/0 P had 225+ innings
• Strikeouts
  • 6 P had 200+ Ks/3 P had 200+ Ks
  • 0 P had 250+ ks/1 P had 250+ ks
• Complete Games
  • 11 P had 2+ complete games/At least 50 P had 2+ complete games
  • 2 P had 5 complete games/8 P had 5 complete games
• Shutouts
  • 9 P had 2+ shutouts/26 P had 2+ shutouts
  • 2 P had 3+ shutouts/13 p had 3+ shutouts

At the very least, I hope this at least helps out SCEA (hey, I live nearby!). When looking at all of the data in front of you like this, it just seems the AI really rides a confident pitcher allowing them to finish off games that real life MLB would be more conservative with.

I'm actually running a test sim now with pitcher confidence off, JUST in case it has an affect in simulated games.

[Mike Lowe]

Oh wow. We may have a significant discovery here: Pitcher confidence DOES affect simulated games, and running a test sim with manager hook at 7, I have the following for Complete Games/Shutouts (with SP stamina at 10 and MR stamina at 0):

2014 American League/2015 Simulated American League

• Complete Games
  • 14 P had 2+ complete games/18 P had 2+ complete games
  • 1 P had 5 complete games/1 P had 5 complete games
• Shutouts
  • 4 P had 2+ shutouts/10 P had 2+ shutouts

2014 National League/2015 Simulated National league

• Complete Games
  • 11 P had 2+ complete games/17 P had 2+ complete games
  • 2 P had 5 complete games/2 P had 5 complete games
• Shutouts
  • 9 P had 2+ shutouts/12 P had 2+ shutouts
  • 2 P had 3+ shutouts/6 p had 3+ shutouts

Now the issue is that I'll need to get the other numbers increased (Ks and IP) without raising those numbers. Those numbers were lower than I'd like to see. MRs are now WELL below innings pitched per game, but are appearing in like 90 games. Somewhere there's a balance!

[forme95]

This year as of yesterday only 4 pitchers in the league have 4 CG's. 6 pitchers have 3 CG's. 11 have 2 CG's. 43 have 1 CG.

I just dont know if it is something that can be fixed with Sliders, or it is going to be a programming issue.

[Mike Lowe]

Quote: Originally Posted by forme95

This year as of yesterday only 4 pitchers in the league have 4 CG's. 6 pitchers have 3 CG's. 11 have 2 CG's. 43 have 1 CG. I just dont know if it is something that can be fixed with Sliders, or it is going to be a programming issue.

It's most certainly an issue with the simulation engine. The manager hook is just too lenient, and there are rarely match-up pitching changes with relievers; typically when a reliever comes in, he'll pitch until he tires.

But we keep trying...

[Mike Lowe]

Because I'd rather have more realistic wins, Ks, and IP for pitchers, I'll chalk up the increase in CG and SO to rhe game of baseball trending towards dominant SP.

I'm thinking the best options are to use SP stamina at 8, MR stamina at 0 and Manager Hook at 8. Keep pitching confidence on. This is for both teams, simulated games and probably played games will work fine as well.

[shaunhill18]

im noi confused by this is this where u skipped the games or by watching them

[Mike Lowe]

Quote: Originally Posted by shaunhill18

im noi confused by this is this where u skipped the games or by watching them

This is simulating all games with confidence on (since I think this bat burst be a visual setting for played games).

[forme95]

Quote: Originally Posted by Mike Lowe

Because I'd rather have more realistic wins, Ks, and IP for pitchers, I'll chalk up the increase in CG and SO to rhe game of baseball trending towards dominant SP. I'm thinking the best options are to use SP stamina at 8, MR stamina at 0 and Manager Hook at 8. Keep pitching confidence on. This is for both teams, simulated games and probably played games will work fine as well.

I agree. If the CG is close throughout the show league, then Im ok too. Id rather have SO and innings pitched closer to real MLB.

WOW, 8, really........ That seems high. But I see Hook at 8. That might be a good equal.