Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 18 Version Season-Mode Memorial Edition]

[NolanRyansSnowmonkey]

I find it interesting that between 4/9 and 4/10, with only strike frequency raised one notch ( from 5 to 6):
Batting Average spiked 40 points to .286
Babip spiked 56 points to .343
Doubles/BIP jumped 2 points from 8.3 to 10.3

Yet between 4/14 and 4/15, with only strike frequency lowered one notch (6 to 5):

Batting Average still went up 9 points
Babip only lowered 6 points
Doubles/BIP still went up over 1.5 points

I would have guessed you would see a similar difference in offense by adjusting only that same slider. (My expectation was that offense would decrease in a similar amount between 4/14 and 4/15, instead of increasing)

Although some other sliders had changed in the meantime, (Timing 2 to 3, and Solid hits 6 to 5) I expected with only the one slider change the results would be similar.

Any thoughts?

[CoachModer]

Are you guys watching games or just sim the day to day?

I have been thinking about just running a franchise and sim all the games and for the team I control do the fast sim within the game where you can make choices etc. What is the best way to go?

[NolanRyansSnowmonkey]

Quote: Originally Posted by CoachModer

Are you guys watching games or just sim the day to day? I have been thinking about just running a franchise and sim all the games and for the team I control do the fast sim within the game where you can make choices etc. What is the best way to go?

I personally use Nomo's set to watch games im my franchise if i choose to. I watched every game of the playoffs last year and it was awesome. So I play my games with a version of Mike Lowe's set, and let other games play out on my tv with Nomo's set. When I sim, I sim with a version of the set I play with.

I'm not even sure Nomo tests these in sim mode or managing. As far as I know it's more for letting games play out live. But I wouldn't be surprised if it works just fine for simming or managing since (i think) mainly only Pitcher stamina and hook affect sim games...

[nomo17k]

Quote: Originally Posted by CoachModer

Are you guys watching games or just sim the day to day? I have been thinking about just running a franchise and sim all the games and for the team I control do the fast sim within the game where you can make choices etc. What is the best way to go?

Quote: Originally Posted by NolanRyansSnowmonkey

I personally use Nomo's set to watch games im my franchise if i choose to. I watched every game of the playoffs last year and it was awesome. So I play my games with a version of Mike Lowe's set, and let other games play out on my tv with Nomo's set. When I sim, I sim with a version of the set I play with. I'm not even sure Nomo tests these in sim mode or managing. As far as I know it's more for letting games play out live. But I wouldn't be surprised if it works just fine for simming or managing since (i think) mainly only Pitcher stamina and hook affect sim games...

The gameplay and simulator engines are pretty much entirely different, and for the latter most sliders do not have any effects.

The ones that affects simulated games are Starter/Reliever Stamina, Manager Hook, and Injury/Trade Frequency, and there aren't other ways (aside from attribute editing) to influence simulated games.

If you want control over IPs/CGs and reliever usage for pitchers in simulated games, you may want to adjust those sliders... but otherwise which slider set you use do not matter much.

[nomo17k]

Quote: Originally Posted by NolanRyansSnowmonkey

I find it interesting that between 4/9 and 4/10, with only strike frequency raised one notch ( from 5 to 6): Batting Average spiked 40 points to .286 Babip spiked 56 points to .343 Doubles/BIP jumped 2 points from 8.3 to 10.3 Yet between 4/14 and 4/15, with only strike frequency lowered one notch (6 to 5): Batting Average still went up 9 points Babip only lowered 6 points Doubles/BIP still went up over 1.5 points I would have guessed you would see a similar difference in offense by adjusting only that same slider. (My expectation was that offense would decrease in a similar amount between 4/14 and 4/15, instead of increasing) Although some other sliders had changed in the meantime, (Timing 2 to 3, and Solid hits 6 to 5) I expected with only the one slider change the results would be similar. Any thoughts?

Indeed, I was itching for this sort of paradox to be pointed out (thank you), and some results apparently does not make sense at first glance like this.

One biggest caveat in anything being done here is that, especially for those 25-game sets, there are sampling issues and also sample size may not be big enough for some statistics to stabilize.

Since the time you asked the question, the batting average and BABIP for the 4/15 set has changed quite a bit, so at least the direction of the change is no longer as contradictory as you mentioned.

In general, I tend to trust less those numbers that I can gather in small numbers at once during a single game (like hits, doubles, HRs), because they converge to reliable averages only after a sample gets bigger.

And a 25- game set is still not that a large sample and is actually a good example where an anomalous game can skew overall averages unless interpreted with care.

One game, CWS vs. MIN game was such a crazy game in which each team had 21 hits and ended by a score of 15-13. Both teams hit 11 HRs in total (!). That game alone totally skewed the results for the rest of the measurements, and I think that game alone was a major factor why the contradiction you mentioned above happened.

If I "assume" that game did not happen, remove it from the sample and re-compute the averages, the batting average (after 20 games now) is .259 and BABIP is .310, which are less contradictory and much closer to what I wanted to see happen by decreasing Strike Frequency by one.

Of course you cannot always do this sort of deliberate selection to simply reject data you do not like or do not fit to your personal definition of what should happen. But when you are working with a small sample and you know you happened to be extremely unlucky to see anomalous game or two, sometimes it is useful to "clip" data points at both ends (reject highest and lowest "anomalies," just to be fair) to see what story the rest of data tell. (It may be more useful to compute medians instead of averages in order to avoid this issue.)

Still, the difficult thing is to evaluate what are anomalous though... it's still possible the slider combination is susceptible for that kind of "anomalous" games to happen. To be fully convinced, I may need a bigger sample to see how often that sort of anomalous game happens.... things are not quite straightforward.

[nomo17k]

Related to the above post, is it intuitive for lower Strike Frequency to cause the game to reduce the amount of offense?

That basically means that pitchers throwing less strikes in early counts is leading to less offense, being more successful in retiring hitters. Isn't throwing strikes an essential skill for pitchers to succeed? Why are CPU pitchers being hit harder when they attack strike zone more aggressively in early counts?

[NolanRyansSnowmonkey]

Quote: Originally Posted by nomo17k

Related to the above post, is it intuitive for lower Strike Frequency to cause the game to reduce the amount of offense? That basically means that pitchers throwing less strikes in early counts is leading to less offense, being more successful in retiring hitters. Isn't throwing strikes an essential skill for pitchers to succeed? Why are CPU pitchers being hit harder when they attack strike zone more aggressively in early counts?

I was hoping you would answer that question lol. Strike Frequency is one slider that I haven't touched in years (in my own played franchise. In CPU vs CPU I always just follow the Nomo Codex.) I have consistently ended up at 63-64% strikes and 60-61% first pitch strikes by simply adjusting CPU control and consistency in Human vs CPU games, and I'm sure part of that is due to how much i "give" the pitcher strikes by chasing, fouling etc.

So I can say strike frequency is one of the slider that I understand the least, due to rarely experimenting with it. Although this year I've been tempted to try it, not because strike percentages are off, but because I can't seem to get Human offense right...

But to the question, my guess would be that strike frequency at 10 would be jamming the zone early with not-so-quality strikes, but "dang blammit, I'm gon' throw a strike." Which would increase the number of very hittable pitches, and therefore averages go up. Likewise, I would guess that strike frequency at 0 would be (with a little exaggeration) avoiding the zone at all costs, "im gon' throw it but please dont hit my pitches." Which would decrease the number of hittable pitches early in counts, and increase walks.

The problem with my assumption is that with my take on lower strike frequency, the pitcher should be behind in more counts, producing more 2-0 and 3-1 counts. Which should increase averages also, unless strike frequency has an effect later in counts also, contradicting its explanation.

I guess in my very limited experience with strike frequency is, at 0 "I'm not touching the plate", while 10 is "let's see how often I can hit the middle of the plate." With everything in between being various degrees of meats and cheeses.


So I guess i basically I said all that to say "I dont know" haha.

Would love to hear what you think, and what you were expecting to achieve when you raised or lowered only strike frequency.

[KBLover]

Quote: Originally Posted by nomo17k

Related to the above post, is it intuitive for lower Strike Frequency to cause the game to reduce the amount of offense? That basically means that pitchers throwing less strikes in early counts is leading to less offense, being more successful in retiring hitters. Isn't throwing strikes an essential skill for pitchers to succeed? Why are CPU pitchers being hit harder when they attack strike zone more aggressively in early counts?

Strike Frequency works with control and consistency to set the CPU's Zone %, the number of pitches the pitcher actually throws in the strike zone. This isn't Strike % because chases = strikes but chases, by definition, aren't in the zone.

I could see it lowering offense if the hitters chase too much. Generally, pitches out of the zone are harder for hitters to hit with authority/good trajectories, so they are easier outs or weaker hits most of the time.

I know playing vs the CPU (on HoF) I hit MUCH easier when the CPU gets into "throw a strike" mode as it does sometimes. I only have to think of one thing - velocity. I don't have to judge the zone because the pitcher is throwing a stream of strikes, so I can just sell out on it being a strike and just worry about timing.

When I put strike frequency at 0, I had to learn to hit. If I get in chase mode - I don't get squat as an offense. No walks, few hits, little damage, more K's and bad contact.

Also, consider mistake pitches. A mistake in the zone might be more easily hit hard. A mistake out of the zone might just be a more obvious ball. Maybe a chase chance lost since it missed so bad, but no other damage.

Just my take on it.